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Future War with (Red) China Hypotheticals/Theorycrafting

ATP

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It was not an "island" meme. It was a "We were only supposed to defend small islands, but here we are invading mainland China" meme.
Not possible.Trump do not wanted invade them,only get a deal.
Biden is owned by them.
Nobody in USA would invade China.
 

ATP

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If they want to survive WWIII yes they don't.

USA would survive WW3 war with China fine.Pekin do not have more then 100 missiles capable of hitting USA.
But - important thing is,that nobody in USA would start that war.
So,it would happen only if China start it - and,since they belive that USA fall after 2040,they could wait.
 

History Learner

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USA would survive WW3 war with China fine.Pekin do not have more then 100 missiles capable of hitting USA.
But - important thing is,that nobody in USA would start that war.
So,it would happen only if China start it - and,since they belive that USA fall after 2040,they could wait.
The Chinese are undergoing a rapid and extensive nuclear buildup:

China is accelerating its development of strategic nuclear warheads in an effort to amass 700 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, more than doubling last year’s estimate, according to the U.S. Defense Department’s 2021 China military power report.​
China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, shown here during a military parade in Beijing in 2019, are a component of the country's nuclear buildup. (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)​
Viewed alongside recent revelations about the construction of at least 250 new missile silos in northwestern China, the annual report highlights a concerning nuclear buildup. Last year, the Pentagon estimated that Beijing had a total nuclear warhead stockpile in the low 200s and projected it would at least double over the next decade. (See ACT, October 2020.)​
China is “investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces,” according to the report, which covers developments through 2020.​

“Our number-one pacing challenge is the People’s Republic of China,” said Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby on Nov. 5.​

They also tested a FOBS system last year, which had the U.S. Military rather shocked they had that capability:

WASHINGTON: In an attempt to fan away some of the fog generated by weeks of hair-raising but vague and sometimes contradictory public reports, a senior Space Force official today made it clear that Beijing’s weapons test earlier this year involved a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) that deployed a hypersonic glide vehicle.​
“I think the words that we use are important, so that we understand exactly what we’re talking about here. I hear things like hypersonic missile, and I hear suborbital sometimes,” Lt. Gen. Chance (Salty) Saltzman, deputy Space Force chief for operations, told the Mitchell Institute. It is neither of those things, he stressed.​
“This is a categorically different system, because a fractional orbit is different than suborbital. A fractional orbit means it can stay on orbit as long as the user determines and then it de-orbits it as a part of the flight path.”​
Further, he added, it is a “very forward-edge technology capability” that Space Force quickly must figure out how to deter.​
 

Zachowon

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Do you want me to point out keyholing Chinese rounds?
Igla mishap?
Hot potato hand grenades?

A country on the defensive can always have the man power and will iver an invading country.
And we have supplied Taiwan with things thay would make it damn near impossible for China to invade without getting obliterated
 

History Learner

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Do you want me to point out keyholing Chinese rounds?
Igla mishap?
Hot potato hand grenades?
The first I already addressed at length previously in this thread and the latter I'm sure are of the same vein.

A country on the defensive can always have the man power and will iver an invading country.
Except for all the times in history, including recent history, that showed otherwise. How's South Vietnam doing?

And we have supplied Taiwan with things thay would make it damn near impossible for China to invade without getting obliterated
Except for the whole fact they don't maintain it, don't have the reserve system to properly utilize it and that both the USAF and USN have conceded the Chinese will be able to both establish a blockade as well as prevent them from asserting air superiority from Day 1.
 

Bacle

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If they want to survive WWIII yes they don't.
Invading mainland China was only possible during MacArthur's time; it is not even remotely in the cards now. Airstikes, sure, but invasion forces doing forced landings againt Beijing or Shanghai, not a chance.

These days it's not even remotely in the minds of the US military or public to actually invade the CCP, just keep them from ganking Taiwan, or hitting Japan. Also to helping the Vietnamese fend off the CCP; the Veitnam War matters less to the Veitnamese than thousands of years of beef with the Chinese trying to invade them.

The only people who think the US would invade the CCP these days are people who are buying Russian bullshit, or trying to stir bullshit to make people think people in the US want to.
 

LordsFire

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Invading mainland China was only possible during MacArthur's time; it is not even remotely in the cards now. Airstikes, sure, but invasion forces doing forced landings againt Beijing or Shanghai, not a chance.

These days it's not even remotely in the minds of the US military or public to actually invade the CCP, just keep them from ganking Taiwan, or hitting Japan. Also to helping the Vietnamese fend off the CCP; the Veitnam War matters less to the Veitnamese than thousands of years of beef with the Chinese trying to invade them.

The only people who think the US would invade the CCP these days are people who are buying Russian bullshit, or trying to stir bullshit to make people think people in the US want to.
Aye, and if anyone tells you that we should or 'need' to invade mainland China, they're also letting you know that they do not understand how modern warfare is fought.

Wars are won via accomplishing one of two objectives:

1: Destroying the enemy's will to fight.
2: Destroying the enemy's ability to fight.

How easy each is depends on the culture and economy of a given participant in the war. With the CCP, destroying their ability to fight is really bloody easy, and doesn't require a land invasion.

All you have to do is embargo their shipping, and their economy collapses in a matter of months. With the economy gutted, they might be able to use standard terrible totalitarianism tactics to force the people to keep fighting for a few months longer, but eventually, they'll have to either surrender or starve.

This is, of course, assuming that you can't just gain total aerospace supremacy. If you can shoot down their entire air force, then use the US/NATO's very expensive and advanced suite of dedicated tools for using air power to destroy anti-air defenses to wipe out the PLA's anti-air emplacements...

Well, then you just bomb their military bases and factories with impunity, and force surrender in weeks rather than months.

It isn't clear whether or not that will be possible though.

If the PLA's hardware and training performs at a more or less expected mediocre level, they may be able to make sorties over China itself prohibitively expensive for US and allied air forces. They'd still lose all their major navy vessels and a huge chunk of their air force though, most likely as their attempt to invade Taiwan is bitch-slapped down. Some deep strikes into China proper would happen, but after losses are sustained the embargo strategy is adopted.

If the PLA performs closer to their own delusional fantasies of their effectiveness, then the likely result would be they get forced back from Taiwan, but then there's a stalemate. The J-20, J-16, and their various late-generation Soviet fighters are good enough to stand off US air power, and it's back to the embargo plan.

If the PLA performs to the level the Russians are in Ukraine right now? Then the Chinese military is more or less smashed flat within a month, and the question is how many red Chinese have to die before the CCP surrenders, is couped out, or get taken out by bunker-busters.


I give about 55.5% chance of the PLA performing mediocrely, 44.4% chance of them performing like the Russians do, and 0.1% chance they perform closer to their delusional fantasies of competence.

And no chance whatsoever they perform to their fantasy levels of competence. Communists never do.
 

ATP

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The Chinese are undergoing a rapid and extensive nuclear buildup:

China is accelerating its development of strategic nuclear warheads in an effort to amass 700 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030, more than doubling last year’s estimate, according to the U.S. Defense Department’s 2021 China military power report.​
China's DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles, shown here during a military parade in Beijing in 2019, are a component of the country's nuclear buildup. (Photo by GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images)​
Viewed alongside recent revelations about the construction of at least 250 new missile silos in northwestern China, the annual report highlights a concerning nuclear buildup. Last year, the Pentagon estimated that Beijing had a total nuclear warhead stockpile in the low 200s and projected it would at least double over the next decade. (See ACT, October 2020.)​
China is “investing in, and expanding, the number of its land-, sea-, and air-based nuclear delivery platforms and constructing the infrastructure necessary to support this major expansion of its nuclear forces,” according to the report, which covers developments through 2020.​

“Our number-one pacing challenge is the People’s Republic of China,” said Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby on Nov. 5.​

They also tested a FOBS system last year, which had the U.S. Military rather shocked they had that capability:

WASHINGTON: In an attempt to fan away some of the fog generated by weeks of hair-raising but vague and sometimes contradictory public reports, a senior Space Force official today made it clear that Beijing’s weapons test earlier this year involved a fractional orbital bombardment system (FOBS) that deployed a hypersonic glide vehicle.​
“I think the words that we use are important, so that we understand exactly what we’re talking about here. I hear things like hypersonic missile, and I hear suborbital sometimes,” Lt. Gen. Chance (Salty) Saltzman, deputy Space Force chief for operations, told the Mitchell Institute. It is neither of those things, he stressed.​
“This is a categorically different system, because a fractional orbit is different than suborbital. A fractional orbit means it can stay on orbit as long as the user determines and then it de-orbits it as a part of the flight path.”​
Further, he added, it is a “very forward-edge technology capability” that Space Force quickly must figure out how to deter.​
After 2030 - maybe.Problem is - WHY CHINA SHOULD BOTHER WITH WAR,WHEN THEY BELIVE,THAT USA WOULD FALL BEFORE 2040?
 

ATP

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Because Xi needs some way to garner actual support for himself instead of just fear-produced support.
Valid question.Then,ii would let Biden fuck USA one year more,and attack in 2023.By that time,all american soldiers would be lgbt+ 52 jewish muslim black Rainbow Warriors.
 

Husky_Khan

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Taiwan Unveils Its New (well first theorized back in 2019) Radar-Killing Drones That Can Be Launched in Salvos Off of Trucks.

The National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology which was also behind the development of the indigenously developed and produced Hsiung Feng AntiShip Missile and Yun Feng Supersonic Cruise Missile have also been developing the Chien Hsiang, a truck launched, anti-radiation loitering munition. Apparently it can target not only radars on land or sea, but slower moving adversarial drones (and perhaps other aircraft) as well.

Its speculated the Chien Hsiang has a flight time of around five hours and a range of about a thousand kilometers. Being a loitering munition, it has its own autopilot features and apparently can dive into its target at speeds approaching 600 kilometers (almost 375 mph) per hour. It can also apparently be used as a decoy drone or jamming vehicle as well.

 

History Learner

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America Ignores The Pacific Islands At Its Peril

Take the Pacific Island nations, for example. This past April, the PRC scored a strategic coup when it signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands that dramatically expanded its standing and military access there. That, however, was just the beginning. Subsequently, in October, reports emerged that the country’s police officers were even receiving training and instruction in China. Additionally, Beijing has expanded its influence in the Pacific Island states through initiatives such as a multi-billion dollar resort development program in the Marianas and environmental diplomacy toward the Marshall Islands. Through these steps, and others, the PRC has steadily chipped away at the durability of America’s longstanding regional partnerships.​
That the U.S. was unprepared or unable to prevent these inroads is concerning enough. But Washington’s reaction to Beijing’s advances is even more troubling. When the Solomon Islands and the PRC announced a joint port access agreement in August, America and Australia panicked. Senior Biden administration officials rushed to Honiara to undo the damage, while leaders in Canberra issued thinly veiled threats. These steps, however, only made matters worse, and President Mannasen Sogavare responded by denying U.S. naval vessels docking rights.​
Similar rifts are emerging in America’s partnership with the Marshall Islands, for which the United States has long served as the chief financial benefactor. Decades of Cold War nuclear bomb testing have terraformed the archipelago. The U.S. has lagged in addressing the environmental and health crises currently gripping the islands – openings that Beijing is deftly exploiting.​
What accounts for America’s slow and unserious response? Washington’s longtime dominance in the Pacific Island region undoubtedly plays a part. Simply put, given the historic position occupied by the United States – which protected the supply and communication links between U.S. and Australia, destroyed Tokyo’s war-making industrial capabilities, and liberated the Philippines more than half a century ago – policymakers in Washington have tended to take the Pacific Island states for granted.​
That’s a mistake because those partnerships remain crucial to America’s regional priorities today. For instance, access to the South Pacific on the part of Australia, a key regional ally, will have to be protected with the Solomons’ help. Air bases in the Philippines have the range to strike targets in the Taiwan Strait and are consequently crucial to any potential scenario involving a Chinese invasion of the island. The Marshalls and Marianas, meanwhile, secure lines of supply and communication from Hawaii and the West Coast. Simply put, the U.S. cannot credibly project power into the Pacific without the partnership of these small island nations.​
It’s a reality that U.S. officials don’t seem to understand. During her recent visit to the Solomons, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman lamented the absence of Prime Minister Sogavare from the main ceremonies – without recognizing that it was in fact America which, through its lack of dynamic engagement, had missed an opportunity to head off the CCP’s encroachment. But the United States now confronts a stark reality: when it comes to its regional position, heritage and hegemony are waning assets. And both are being progressively eroded by China’s inroads.​
 

ATP

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America Ignores The Pacific Islands At Its Peril

Take the Pacific Island nations, for example. This past April, the PRC scored a strategic coup when it signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands that dramatically expanded its standing and military access there. That, however, was just the beginning. Subsequently, in October, reports emerged that the country’s police officers were even receiving training and instruction in China. Additionally, Beijing has expanded its influence in the Pacific Island states through initiatives such as a multi-billion dollar resort development program in the Marianas and environmental diplomacy toward the Marshall Islands. Through these steps, and others, the PRC has steadily chipped away at the durability of America’s longstanding regional partnerships.​
That the U.S. was unprepared or unable to prevent these inroads is concerning enough. But Washington’s reaction to Beijing’s advances is even more troubling. When the Solomon Islands and the PRC announced a joint port access agreement in August, America and Australia panicked. Senior Biden administration officials rushed to Honiara to undo the damage, while leaders in Canberra issued thinly veiled threats. These steps, however, only made matters worse, and President Mannasen Sogavare responded by denying U.S. naval vessels docking rights.​
Similar rifts are emerging in America’s partnership with the Marshall Islands, for which the United States has long served as the chief financial benefactor. Decades of Cold War nuclear bomb testing have terraformed the archipelago. The U.S. has lagged in addressing the environmental and health crises currently gripping the islands – openings that Beijing is deftly exploiting.​
What accounts for America’s slow and unserious response? Washington’s longtime dominance in the Pacific Island region undoubtedly plays a part. Simply put, given the historic position occupied by the United States – which protected the supply and communication links between U.S. and Australia, destroyed Tokyo’s war-making industrial capabilities, and liberated the Philippines more than half a century ago – policymakers in Washington have tended to take the Pacific Island states for granted.​
That’s a mistake because those partnerships remain crucial to America’s regional priorities today. For instance, access to the South Pacific on the part of Australia, a key regional ally, will have to be protected with the Solomons’ help. Air bases in the Philippines have the range to strike targets in the Taiwan Strait and are consequently crucial to any potential scenario involving a Chinese invasion of the island. The Marshalls and Marianas, meanwhile, secure lines of supply and communication from Hawaii and the West Coast. Simply put, the U.S. cannot credibly project power into the Pacific without the partnership of these small island nations.​
It’s a reality that U.S. officials don’t seem to understand. During her recent visit to the Solomons, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman lamented the absence of Prime Minister Sogavare from the main ceremonies – without recognizing that it was in fact America which, through its lack of dynamic engagement, had missed an opportunity to head off the CCP’s encroachment. But the United States now confronts a stark reality: when it comes to its regional position, heritage and hegemony are waning assets. And both are being progressively eroded by China’s inroads.​
First,Biden is China buddy.Second,they allied over moscov corpse after they lost war in Ukraine.
And third - USA Navy would still kick chineese asses there.
 
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