Former caterer gets delusional, declares war on Russia

[Jormungandr]

Intelligence analysts are saying that Wagner's pretty much broken and nothing will come of it.

However, I'm seeing anecdotes all over that they're incredibly pissed.

Even if it's not organized via a central figure/command, I think at least some elements are going to start military operations against Russia.

 

[Marduk]

It is historically well-proven that the "win or die" rule is not just the most effective way to suppress coups, but the only effective way. That's why even extremely "soft" government systems like the United States maintain the death penalty for treason.

Yeah, Prigozhin crossed the Rubicon and then turned back. A fatal mistake.

They demolished the Wagner cemetery Prigozhin built...

Reminds me of this:

Intelligence analysts are saying that Wagner's pretty much broken and nothing will come of it.

However, I'm seeing anecdotes all over that they're incredibly pissed.

Even if it's not organized via a central figure/command, I think at least some elements are going to start military operations against Russia.

Yeah, while Wagner was the prominent tip of the iceberg, the far more signficant part are the backroom politics of Russian military and secret services, which have factions that were more or less aligned with Wagner in being less than satisfied with the higher command, and which may have had some involvement in the coup.

 

[willdelve4beer]

Mind you, thinking about all this - it is pretty amusing that Putin* killing off his most effective, military leader in the midst of an stalemated conquest attempt of what is (suprisingly) an apparently near-peer power, is being called a 'win'.

The funnier part, is that is arguably is a win for Putin*.

Which is rather illuminating, I feel, for how Russia fortunes are doing lately.

I've written it before, and no doubt will again - everyone who is worried about "Russia sinking into warlordism" is a decade late and a dollar short.

*The asterisk is because I don't think Vlad is anything more than a figurehead at this point. Much like the Tokugawa era Japanese Emperors. He's held up for show, and trotted out for parades, but, like his American counterpart, isn't making any of the decisions, and hasn't for years.

 

[lloyd007]

They demolished the Wagner cemetery Prigozhin built...

Wow... put all the markers in a pile so all the dead become anonymous unless major effort is taken to re-identify them. That truly is some Soviet level desecration going on.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

They demolished the Wagner cemetery Prigozhin built...

Russians have always been enthusiastic about erasing history and people they don't like.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Intelligence analysts are saying that Wagner's pretty much broken and nothing will come of it.
However, I'm seeing anecdotes all over that they're incredibly pissed.
Even if it's not organized via a central figure/command, I think at least some elements are going to start military operations against Russia.

In terms of direct military impact on the Ukraine conflict, I don't expect much. However, I was under the impression that Wagner was very important to Russia's activities in Africa, including revenue generation. If this is true and these operations turn against Russia then it seems to me that the long term impact would be huge.

 

[ShadowArxxy]

Russians have always been enthusiastic about erasing history and people they don't like.

The concept of damnatio memoriae dates back to even before Rome, and was practiced fairly widely into the Middle Ages.

 

[willdelve4beer]

The concept of damnatio memoriae dates back to even before Rome, and was practiced fairly widely into the Middle Ages.

Even the first Chinese and Egyptian rulers were enthusiastic practitioners of memory-holing their predecessors. Must make being an actual historian (as opposed to a history flavored propagandist or fabulist) quite challenging at times. I would be less than surprised to learn that there were flourishing civilizations before them and the Sumerians who were thoroughly erased.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Even the first Chinese and Egyptian rulers were enthusiastic practitioners of memory-holing their predecessors. Must make being an actual historian (as opposed to a history flavored propagandist or fabulist) quite challenging at times. I would be less than surprised to learn that there were flourishing civilizations before them and the Sumerians who were thoroughly erased.

I don't think they were able to be that thorough; we still see that there were kings who were unpersoned, after all. Erasing the fact of a civilization's existence is much, much harder than erasing details about what it was like.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Al-Monitor had an interesting and lengthy piece of the fate of Wagner, especially regarding its ongoing operations in Africa and the Middle East with Prigozhin's presumed assassination.

The Russian Military and more loyal PMC's like Convoy and Redut are working to replace Wagner operations in Africa and Syria. The day before Prigozhin's tragically unexpected death in a plane crash, a Russian military delegation was in Libya in discussions with Khalifa Hifter and the Libyan National Alliance based out of Tobruk which is supported by Wagner PMC. Redut PMC meanwhile has been involved in operations in Syria for a long period of time while Convoy PMC, prior to the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, was suffering from lack of funding and experienced mercenaries, but that is apparently no longer the case.

The commanders and fighters of Wagner’s foreign branches are frustrated, facing the prospect of either working for the Defense Ministry’s PMCs or engaging in conflict with the military without sufficient resources or the support of local authorities, as well as the prospect of criminal prosecution in Russia if they return home. The Wagner detachments withdrawn from Ukraine and Russia to Belarus are also virtually locked in training camps and depend on agreements between Moscow and Minsk.

Prigozhin's death looks like a logical outcome of the rebellion and a symbolic warning to his sympathizers within the Russian political, economic and military elite. In this regard, the possibility discussed in the Russian media of a staged death would be equivalent to his real death for the future of the Wagner Group. But given the known cool character of the businessman and the circumstances of his mutiny, it is difficult to imagine that Prigozhin decided to self-destruct or transfer his business to the Defense Ministry in such a cunning way.

Any details on Prigozhin having some master plan in case of his death are slim, and Russia has been spending the interim planning on how to nationalize Wagner's operations abroad.

Prigozhin’s death spells end of Wagner, but Russia won't abandon its missions

With the Wagner Group's top leadership reportedly dead in a likely assassination, Moscow is continuing to quietly replace the private mercenary outfit in its overseas operations.

www.al-monitor.com

 

[Skallagrim]

Al-Monitor had an interesting and lengthy piece of the fate of Wagner, especially regarding its ongoing operations in Africa and the Middle East with Prigozhin's presumed assassination.

The Russian Military and more loyal PMC's like Convoy and Redut are working to replace Wagner operations in Africa and Syria. The day before Prigozhin's tragically unexpected death in a plane crash, a Russian military delegation was in Libya in discussions with Khalifa Hifter and the Libyan National Alliance based out of Tobruk which is supported by Wagner PMC. Redut PMC meanwhile has been involved in operations in Syria for a long period of time while Convoy PMC, prior to the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, was suffering from lack of funding and experienced mercenaries, but that is apparently no longer the case.



Any details on Prigozhin having some master plan in case of his death are slim, and Russia has been spending the interim planning on how to nationalize Wagner's operations abroad.

Prigozhin’s death spells end of Wagner, but Russia won't abandon its missions

With the Wagner Group's top leadership reportedly dead in a likely assassination, Moscow is continuing to quietly replace the private mercenary outfit in its overseas operations.

www.al-monitor.com

To think--

They could have gone out in an impressive blaze, maybe even fatally destabilising Putin's regime, making a real mark on history.

Instead, it ends in this pathetic way. Starved out, whittled away, absorbed, dispersed, diluted into nothing.

 

[willdelve4beer]

I don't think they were able to be that thorough; we still see that there were kings who were unpersoned, after all. Erasing the fact of a civilization's existence is much, much harder than erasing details about what it was like.

Well, the older a civilization is, the less evidence it has to leave in the first place. Between what was appropriated by successors, destroyed naturally by passage of time, what was actively destroyed, and what has just been lost, it seems pretty reasonable to me that a pre-sumerian civilization could have disappeared entirely from the historical record.

Then again, I'm neither an archaeologist nor a historian, I just enjoy reading pulp fiction and watching pulp fiction inspired movies about them, so...

 

[Zachowon]

We have no clue about what will happen.

Perhaps this is a chain of events that lead to something awesome or lame.
We will have to wait and see

 

[Husky_Khan]

They demolished the Wagner cemetery Prigozhin built...

I find this disgustingly petty and rather outrageous. Desecrating war dead already buried in a cemetery.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

Surprised the dude went to Moscow after the stunt he pulled, Anyone remotely familiar with Russian history would have known that'd be a death sentence.

 

[Captain X]

I find this disgustingly petty and rather outrageous. Desecrating war dead already buried in a cemetery.

And yet they've done it previously in Ukraine, so it's entirely consistent with them.

 

[Zyobot]

No surprise they'd deny it, really.

 

[King Arts]

No surprise they'd deny it, really.

This actually confuses me. Everyone knows the Russians did it very few people care why don’t they say “Yes we did this this is the fate of traitors.”

 

[Marduk]

This actually confuses me. Everyone knows the Russians did it very few people care why don’t they say “Yes we did this this is the fate of traitors.”

Necessary ambiguity. For comparison, consider what happened to Kadyrov's father...

If Putin went on TV and said "yes, i gave the order for the S-300 battery to blow this traitorous bastard out of the sky", a certain group of people with important contributions to the war effort would get very disillusioned and would start asking tough questions, if you consider what Prigozhin's original gripes with the higher leadership were.
Doubly so considering the publicized deal between him and Putin that ended the coup.
Putin would rather have everyone to not be so sure about such things, even if they have suspicions.
Putin could probably get away with openly saying it, but it would be dramatic acceleration of the "image delamination" between what Russian establishment paints itself as through skilled and extensive PR work, and the image it actually presents with actions that everyone can see.
Let's just say that the former is far better at inspiring people to support it than the latter would be.

 

[ATP]

Necessary ambiguity. For comparison, consider what happened to Kadyrov's father...

If Putin went on TV and said "yes, i gave the order for the S-300 battery to blow this traitorous bastard out of the sky", a certain group of people with important contributions to the war effort would get very disillusioned and would start asking tough questions, if you consider what Prigozhin's original gripes with the higher leadership were.
Doubly so considering the publicized deal between him and Putin that ended the coup.
Putin would rather have everyone to not be so sure about such things, even if they have suspicions.
Putin could probably get away with openly saying it, but it would be dramatic acceleration of the "image delamination" between what Russian establishment paints itself as through skilled and extensive PR work, and the image it actually presents with actions that everyone can see.
Let's just say that the former is far better at inspiring people to support it than the latter would be.

All true.But,it do not change fact,that next putch would be real,and whatever do that would fight to death - his or Putin.