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The Americas Federative Republic of Brazil Discussion Megathread

Sobek

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Hue hue hue nada acontece feijoada

This is a Presidential election year in Brazil, and the powers that be have gone full retard. The desperation to stop a 2nd Bolsonaro term is so strong the the PT (leftist) and PSB (neocon privatization happy) have made a alliance to run Lula as their man with Alckmin backing him. For context this would be like Mitt Romney backing a Obama 3rd Term to stop a Trump run.

And it doesn't look like it is working. People are just tired of them, and the blatant desperation of the move has made them simply swear off voting for Lula anyway.
 
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gral

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Hue hue hue nada acontece feijoada

This is a Presidential election year in Brazil, and the powers that be have gone full retard. The desperation to stop a 2nd Bolsonaro term is so strong the the PT (leftist) and PSB (neocon privatization happy) have made a alliance to run Lula as their man with Alckmin backing him. For context this would be like Mitt Romney backing a Obama 3rd Term to stop a Trump run.

And it doesn't look like it is working. People are just tired of them, and the blatant desperation of the move has made them simply swear off voting for Lula anyway.
My bet is still a Bolsonaro victory, but it'll be a close one. In the end, it'll be a contest of who is more hated. I'm not sure it matters whoever gets in, though.

Right now, the group that really rules is the so called "Centrão"(literally, 'Big Center'), a group that has no ideology other than the personal well-being of their own members. Bolsonaro ran to their arms after seeing he wouldn't be able to govern(in that aspect Brazil is just like pre-2022 Ukraine, you either bow your head to the system or go the dictator way, no other way to govern - Ukraine may change after this war, but it's too early to tell), and the price of their support was the discarding of Bolsonaro's conservative support, and nothing more than lip-service paid to conservative causes(as a result, it's open season on any conservative that tries to upset the applecart now).

Also, whomever is elected will have to let Centrão dictate terms(at least for now), so I don't see too much difference between prospective Bolsonaro and Lula other than rhetoric. By 2026, things may change(especially if Bolsonaro gets reelected and is therefore unable to run), but I suspect the big one will be 2030.

EDIT:
The so-called 'center-right' was mostly a gathering of 'never-Bolsonaro' people, and it very specifically aimed at people who disliked Bolsonaro, yet couldn't bring themselves to vote for Lula or his appointed candidate - a very small niche considering how polarized Brazilian politics is polarized right now. It's even been said that the only reason the 'third way' candidates were being proposed was to take away votes from Bolsonaro.
 

Sobek

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The so-called 'center-right' was mostly a gathering of 'never-Bolsonaro' people, and it very specifically aimed at people who disliked Bolsonaro, yet couldn't bring themselves to vote for Lula or his appointed candidate - a very small niche considering how polarized Brazilian politics is polarized right now. It's even been said that the only reason the 'third way' candidates were being proposed was to take away votes from Bolsonaro.
On the words of some dude I overheard talking politics in a place I went: "In the end it's gonna be Lula and Bolsonaro, and you can bet that of the people undecided 95% are NEVER voting Lula, no matter how much they hate Bolsonaro."
 

gral

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On the words of some dude I overheard talking politics in a place I went: "In the end it's gonna be Lula and Bolsonaro, and you can bet that of the people undecided 95% are NEVER voting Lula, no matter how much they hate Bolsonaro."
Don't think it's 95%; closer to 50-60%, IMO. Time will tell.
 

49ersfootball

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Almost that, but with a crucial difference: Lula knew when to turn on the charm. Dilma wouldn't know what 'charm' even if charm shoved its genitals on her face.
Let's not forget about Rousseff getting impeached & removed from the Presidency due to the Petrobras Scandal.
 

gral

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Let's not forget about Rousseff getting impeached & removed from the Presidency due to the Petrobras Scandal.
Which goes back to my point of her creator knowing when to turn on the charm; as impeachment is a political judgement, you have to lose both Congress and public opinion to get impeached. Lula would have never allowed things to get to that point.
 

Sobek

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I don't understand feijoada.
I mean I know what feijoada is, but not in the context of "nothing happens bean stew".
It's a old meme.



Basically there was a brazilian Chan like website and some Korean poster made a thread calling us dirty and lazy and making fun of the corruption in Brazil with obviously google translated stuff, and ended the post with "nada acontece feijoada" and it sort of became a memetic slogan/motto of Brazil in the internet to show off the irreverence and chaos of the country.

The meme originally seems to have been a random /b/ post of similar vein, but making fun of the USA instead. That one did not catch on like "nada acontece feijoada"
 

Cherico

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Well at least Brazilian women are hot, you guys have that going for you at least.

Oh and your coffee is great too, its frustrating you guys keep the good shit for yourselves but its good.
 

49ersfootball

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Which goes back to my point of her creator knowing when to turn on the charm; as impeachment is a political judgement, you have to lose both Congress and public opinion to get impeached. Lula would have never allowed things to get to that point.
How did Rousseff manage to lose both chambers of the National Congress of Brazil ?
 

gral

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How did Rousseff manage to lose both chambers of the National Congress of Brazil ?
Short answer:

Besides being a foul-tempered and foul-mouthed cunt(have heard second-hand accounts for the last one), she, and a faction of PT which was on the rise, wanted to keep the loot to themselves.

(Very)Long answer(that still omits a lot of details):

The 1988 Constitution did everything it could to take power from the office of the president, without turning Brazil into a Parliamentary Republic. This means that the Brazilian President has to placate Congress in order to do anything(hence my previous saying that you either acquiesce to the system or become a dictator in order to govern). This means that any President has to have a coalition(as there are lots of political parties) big enough to push what he wants to do through Congress.

These coalitions tend to be centered around two parties, with one party providing ideology(as well as number of votes), and the other providing votes, both in Congress and in elections(in exchange for pork and other political favours, like management positions in State-owned enterprises, which are a great source of funding to the parties that get people in these positions). For FHC, the coalition was PSDB(FHC's party) and PFL(since last year subsumed into União Brasil). For Lula(and later, Dilma), the party that brought in the votes was PMDB(now MDB, its original name).

Under Lula, the PT-PMDB partnership worked splendidly. A lot of the 50 million+ votes Lula got in both run-off elections were delivered by the PMDB political machine, and in Congress, PMDB representatives were even more loyal than even the PT ones; while many of the laws the PT government pushed didn't exactly conform to PT(and leftist) dogma, and therefore you always had a number of representatives who voted 'according to their conscience'(usually making cheap political point to their voters), once the PMDB's price was met, PMDB voted on block, delivering the support needed to push legislation through.

This situation couldn't last: on PT's side, they were pissed at having to pay the (high)price to get the legislation they wanted; they also got convinced that the votes they got in the elections were much more due to their own merits than PMDB's; by the second half of the 2000s, it was fairly common to hear among leftist supporters that there should be more referendums and plebiscites, because that would be 'true democracy' - in truth, what that was was the leftists getting sick and tired of being extorted. There were also growing calls for increasing PT's(and leftist satellite parties') occupation of commissioned positions(positions in both public service and State-owned enterprises that are filled through indication) - and therefore reducing the number of those positions for PMDB and other parties.

On PMDB's and fellow votes-for-gibs parties' side, there was insatisfaction with the fact that whenever unpopular legislation came through, the leftist parties would allow their representatives to deviate from the party vote(and gain electoral clout), while they would vote faithfully, and have their own representatives take the popularity hit. They also heard the above-mentioned calls, and weren't at all amused, to say the least.

2010 comes, and Lula chooses Dilma Rousseff as his successor. Dilma Rousseff seems to have been chosen as a placeholder for a possible Lula bid on 2014 or 2018, among other reasons. Problem is, as nasty as Lula seems to be, he also knows when to be conciliatory. Dilma has the disposition of a hippopotamus with PMS and five rotten teeth, seems to believe screaming is how you show your authority and has the 'my way or the highway' mindset(of course).

For the VP slot, PMDB chose the former President of the House of Representatives, Michel Temer. Temer is a constitutional scholar(one of the first manuals of constitutional law covering the 1988 Constitution was his, and it's used even today), a cabinet(as in a politician's office) rat and scheming bastard(he wouldn't have been President of the House of Representatives if he wasn't the latter two), and someone who is deeply conscious of the pageantry, rite and etiquette due his position. Moreover, he wasn't PT's preferential candidate - he schemed his way to the indication and presented it to PT as a fait accompli. One begins to realize this shit couldn't end well.

Dilma gets elected, and sides with the ones who think PT doesn't need the Centrão; still, the economy is going reasonably well, so they could paper over the cracks until 2012, when the economy takes a downturn, caused by leaving the money tap open and sacrificing the State-owned enterprises(by holding prices on oil and electricity down - it did hold inflation down, but not that much) for too long. But still, the government is managing to keep things(barely afloat) - things are bad, but not yet disastrous.

In 2013, a series of protests about the rise of bus fare, started by leftist groups in order to undermine the São Paulo State Governor doesn't end as well as expected - they did too well in convincing public opinion that 'It's not merely because of 20 cents! Your life sucks, and it's because of those politicians in the City and the Gubernatorial Palaces!', and people started thinking 'You're right, my life sucks! And it's the fault of the Mayor, the Governor, the Representatives, the Senators and the President!' Oops. These protests would be the gift that keeps on giving in Brazilian politics, but that's another story.

2013 is also the year the economy starts going really bad - employment is still high, but that's about it. PSDB, the intended victims of the protests, rubs their hands in glee - the government is doing poorly, our base and the anti-PT voters are motivated. 2014 should be ours, they think.

Except it wasn't - Dilma squeaks by. PSDB, and all those guys who were anti-PT lose their shit. The anti-PT media groups start hitting hard the government, and there's plenty of things to hit. Remember I said employment was still high? By 2015, it's going down like an anchor. Meanwhile, both Petrobras and Eletrobras can't take the abuse anymore, posting record losses. Meanwhile, a Federal Police operation investigating corruption at Petrobras starts getting media coverage...

Now put yourselves in PMDB's and Centrão's place. The government you support is becoming as liked as syphilis(I was going to say as popular, but unfortunately, it's still pretty disseminated in Brazil - syphilis, I mean, not fondness for the Dilma Administration). This means you could be poorly placed for getting gibs in the future(loser do not get gibs). Your allies openly talk about discarding you. You don't even believe in what they do, and part of what they believe would result in you getting undone. What the fuck do you do? You wait until things get bad enough, slid the knife in, and hope people will be appeased with the scapegoat(who was guilty after all, just not the only one). That's how you lose both houses of Congress.

BTW, you would lose support on both houses at the same time - Congress is deeply aware of the weapon it has, in the impeachment procedure. Therefore the start of an impeachment procedure has to mean the eventual removal of the President. Congress will not start an impeachment procedure that isn't assured in ending with the dismissal of the President - that was the role of Eduardo Cunha, he sat on all impeachment requirements, until he had one who could pass the obvious bullshit test and Dilma's popularity was so down the shitter(around 9% approval, IIRC) no one who wasn't already tied to her or her party would support her.
 
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49ersfootball

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Short answer:

Besides being a foul-tempered and foul-mouthed cunt(have heard second-hand accounts for the last one), she, and a faction of PT which was on the rise, wanted to keep the loot to themselves.

(Very)Long answer(that still omits a lot of details):

The 1988 Constitution did everything it could to take power from the office of the president, without turning Brazil into a Parliamentary Republic. This means that the Brazilian President has to placate Congress in order to do anything(hence my previous saying that you either acquiesce to the system or become a dictator in order to govern). This means that any President has to have a coalition(as there are lots of political parties) big enough to push what he wants to do through Congress.

These coalitions tend to be centered around two parties, with one party providing ideology(as well as number of votes), and the other providing votes, both in Congress and in elections(in exchange for pork and other political favours, like management positions in State-owned enterprises, which are a great source of funding to the parties that get people in these positions). For FHC, the coalition was PSDB(FHC's party) and PFL(since last year subsumed into União Brasil). For Lula(and later, Dilma), the party that brought in the votes was PMDB(now MDB, its original name).

Under Lula, the PT-PMDB partnership worked splendidly. A lot of the 50 million+ votes Lula got in both run-off elections were delivered by the PMDB political machine, and in Congress, PMDB representatives were even more loyal than even the PT ones; while many of the laws the PT government pushed didn't exactly conform to PT(and leftist) dogma, and therefore you always had a number of representatives who voted 'according to their conscience'(usually making cheap political point to their voters), once the PMDB's price was met, PMDB voted on block, delivering the support needed to push legislation through.

This situation couldn't last: on PT's side, they were pissed at having to pay the (high)price to get the legislation they wanted; they also got convinced that the votes they got in the elections were much more due to their own merits than PMDB's; by the second half of the 2000s, it was fairly common to hear among leftist supporters that there should be more referendums and plebiscites, because that would be 'true democracy' - in truth, what that was was the leftists getting sick and tired of being extorted. There were also growing calls for increasing PT's(and leftist satellite parties') occupation of commissioned positions(positions in both public service and State-owned enterprises that are filled through indication) - and therefore reducing the number of those positions for PMDB and other parties.

On PMDB's and fellow votes-for-gibs parties' side, there was insatisfaction with the fact that whenever unpopular legislation came through, the leftist parties would allow their representatives to deviate from the party vote(and gain electoral clout), while they would vote faithfully, and have their own representatives take the popularity hit. They also heard the above-mentioned calls, and weren't at all amused, to say the least.

2010 comes, and Lula chooses Dilma Rousseff as his successor. Dilma Rousseff seems to have been chosen as a placeholder for a possible Lula bid on 2014 or 2018, among other reasons. Problem is, as nasty as Lula seems to be, he also knows when to be conciliatory. Dilma has the disposition of a hippopotamus with PMS and five rotten teeth, seems to believe screaming is how you show your authority and has the 'my way or the highway' mindset(of course).

For the VP slot, PMDB chose the former President of the House of Representatives, Michel Temer. Temer is a constitutional scholar(one of the first manuals of constitutional law covering the 1988 Constitution was his, and it's used even today), a cabinet(as in a politician's office) rat and scheming bastard(he wouldn't have been President of the House of Representatives if he wasn't the latter two), and someone who is deeply conscious of the pageantry, rite and etiquette due his position. Moreover, he wasn't PT's preferential candidate - he schemed his way to the indication and presented it to PT as a fait accompli. One begins to realize this shit couldn't end well.

Dilma gets elected, and sides with the ones who think PT doesn't need the Centrão; still, the economy is going reasonably well, so they could paper over the cracks until 2012, when the economy takes a downturn, caused by leaving the money tap open and sacrificing the State-owned enterprises(by holding prices on oil and electricity down - it did hold inflation down, but not that much) for too long. But still, the government is managing to keep things(barely afloat) - things are bad, but not yet disastrous.

In 2013, a series of protests about the rise of bus fare, started by leftist groups in order to undermine the São Paulo State Governor doesn't end as well as expected - they did too well in convincing public opinion that 'It's not merely because of 20 cents! Your life sucks, and it's because of those politicians in the City and the Gubernatorial Palaces!', and people started thinking 'You're right, my life sucks! And it's the fault of the Mayor, the Governor, the Representatives, the Senators and the President!' Oops. These protests would be the gift that keeps on giving in Brazilian politics, but that's another story.

2013 is also the year the economy starts going really bad - employment is still high, but that's about it. PSDB, the intended victims of the protests, rubs their hands in glee - the government is doing poorly, our base and the anti-PT voters are motivated. 2014 should be ours, they think.

Except it wasn't - Dilma squeaks by. PSDB, and all those guys who were anti-PT lose their shit. The anti-PT media groups start hitting hard the government, and there's plenty of things to hit. Remember I said employment was still high? By 2015, it's going down like an anchor. Meanwhile, both Petrobras and Eletrobras can't take the abuse anymore, posting record losses. Meanwhile, a Federal Police operation investigating corruption at Petrobras starts getting media coverage...

Now put yourselves in PMDB's and Centrão's place. The government you support is becoming as liked as syphilis(I was going to say as popular, but unfortunately, it's still pretty disseminated in Brazil - syphilis, I mean, not fondness for the Dilma Administration). This means you could be poorly placed for getting gibs in the future(loser do not get gibs). Your allies openly talk about discarding you. You don't even believe in what they do, and part of what they believe would result in you getting undone. What the fuck do you do? You wait until things get bad enough, slid the knife in, and hope people will be appeased with the scapegoat(who was guilty after all, just not the only one). That's how you lose both houses of Congress.

BTW, you would lose support on both houses at the same time - Congress is deeply aware of the weapon it has, in the impeachment procedure. Therefore the start of an impeachment procedure has to mean the eventual removal of the President. Congress will not start an impeachment procedure that isn't assured in ending with the dismissal of the President - that was the role of Eduardo Cunha, he sat on all impeachment requirements, until he had one who could pass the obvious bullshit test and Dilma's popularity was so down the shitter(around 9% approval, IIRC) no one who wasn't already tied to her or her party would support her.
WOW! Thank you for the long, intriguing story.
 
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