China Military News

[Zachowon]

And most parts of the US are not willing to risk becoming an irradiated hellhole to DEFEND Taiwan.

We need to reshore the shit we depend on Taiwan for, if we are not going to go whole hog and treat them as a legit nation worthy a direct nuke umbrella. A direct nuke umbrella on Taiwan will actually give it more security, because then there is no way for any attempt on Taiwan to remain 'conventional'.

The unwillingness to properly sort out Taiwan's status, and give them the proper tools to deter the CCP, is why we are in this mess now.

No, I think you advocate for it being a 'conventional war' is because the military needs civies to think war over Taiwan can be kept below the MAD threshold for recruiting and PR purposes.

If civies continue to think that war over Taiwan will end in MAD, it'll be hard to recruit soldiers/sailors for said conflict, because they would know that the war would have no winners and their possible deaths would be meaningless because MAD would destroy their nation anyway.

Bacle, war over Taiwan will not be ww3. If anything it will be a mess, but nukes will not fly.

Also, putting nukes on Taiwan is the quickest way for things to hit MAD. You seem to think "Putting nukes will be a deterrent" when China would probably declare that war.

So a conventional fight, which it will be because China is trying to forcepeople with trheats not to join, because knowing they wont actually nuke a country that is allied to us...

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Will they? Probably not, but you never know because all it takes is for the person in charge to say "let's do this" and the nukes fly.

Do you recall how people were publicly concerned that Trump might use nukes in a fit of pique? I do, wasn't worried he would, and can't say the same about China.

I am sure

 

[Bacle]

Bacle, war over Taiwan will not be ww3. If anything it will be a mess, but nukes will not fly.

Also, putting nukes on Taiwan is the quickest way for things to hit MAD. You seem to think "Putting nukes will be a deterrent" when China would probably declare that war.

So a conventional fight, which it will be because China is trying to forcepeople with trheats not to join, because knowing they wont actually nuke a country that is allied to us...

I am sure

Dude, the Japan Exception exists in CCP nuke policy now.

Your view of what the war would be comes from a time before that, and still is trying to pretend it does not change how likely MAD is in any conflict over Taiwan.

I understand how China may view giving Taiwan nukes.

But I also understand that the whole reason this is an issue to begin with is because DC has tried to have it's cake and eat it too with regards to Taiwan and the CCP.

It's time to either start reshoring shit, and removing any dependence on Taiwanese products, or it is time to make it so no war over Taiwan can be 'won' by anyone. MAD keeps us from wasting massive amounts of lives, time, and money on 'conventional' wars.

The half-assed, two faced middle ground DC has maintained on this issue needs to end, one way or another.

 

[Zachowon]

Dude, the Japan Exception exists in CCP nuke policy now.

Your view of what the war would be comes from a time before that, and still is trying to pretend it does not change how likely MAD is in any conflict over Taiwan.

I understand how China may view giving Taiwan nukes.

But I also understand that the whole reason this is an issue to begin with is because DC has tried to have it's cake and eat it too with regards to Taiwan and the CCP.

It's time to either start reshoring shit, and removing any dependence on Taiwanese products, or it is time to make it so no war over Taiwan can be 'won' by anyone. MAD keeps us from wasting massive amounts of lives, time, and money on 'conventional' wars.

The half-assed, two faced middle ground DC has maintained on this issue needs to end, one way or another.

IF we put nukes on Taiwan we are asking to be nuked.

 

[Bacle]

IF we put nukes on Taiwan we are asking to be nuked.

I see you are again ignoring the implications of the Japan Exception, and Japan's separate agreements with Taiwan, and our defense treaty with Japan.

There is no way any attempt on Taiwan does not escalate to nukes anyway, so Taiwan might as well have it's own deterrent against the CCP.

Taiwan having it's own nuke deterrent, either via us giving them some or us helping them bootstrap their own nuke program, is a far greater way to ensure China does not make an attempt on the island in the first place.

I mean, I guess Taiwan could go for a biowarfare deterrent instead of nukes, but that carries a whole other set of risks as shown by Wuhan.

 

[Zachowon]

I see you are again ignoring the implications of the Japan Exception, and Japan's separate agreements with Taiwan, and our defense treaty with Japan.

There is no way any attempt on Taiwan does not escalate to nukes anyway, so Taiwan might as well have it's own deterrent against the CCP.

Taiwan having it's own nuke deterrent, either via us giving them some or us helping them bootstrap their own nuke program, is a far greater way to ensure China does not make an attempt on the island in the first place.

I mean, I guess Taiwan could go for a biowarfare deterrent instead of nukes, but that carries a whole other set of risks as shown by Wuhan.

China wants to take Taiwan intact, because it considers it a rogue province. Nuking Taiwan makes everything they need it for useless.

Putting nukes on Taiwan is basically Cuban Missle Crisis 2: electric Nukaloo. It would end with nukes flying or at least massive economic sanctions on both countries from each other, causing a massive economic crash in both countries, Which would still most likely end with WW3 MAD.

China wants to take Taiwan intact

 

[bintananth]

I am sure

One of these days I'll take the lyrics to "Chlöe (You're the one I want)" and turn them into "Glowie (You're the one I hate)" assuming one of my parents, siblings, in-laws, children, nieces, or nephews doesn't do it first.

 

[Bacle]

China wants to take Taiwan intact, because it considers it a rogue province. Nuking Taiwan makes everything they need it for useless.

Putting nukes on Taiwan is basically Cuban Missle Crisis 2: electric Nukaloo. It would end with nukes flying or at least massive economic sanctions on both countries from each other, causing a massive economic crash in both countries, Which would still most likely end with WW3 MAD.

China wants to take Taiwan intact

Hmm, wonder why they call it the 'Japan Exception', not the 'Taiwan Exception'?

It's almost as if China is not interested in the conventional war the US military wants a fight over Taiwan to be, and now has an explicit policy that if Japan attempts to aid Taiwan conventionally, the CCP will nuke Japan and force the escalation. And we have a Congressionally ratified defense treaty with Japan, not just the nudge-nudge deal with have with Taiwan and the 'Two China Policy'.

Putting nukes on Taiwan, or giving them the ability to make their own, is Taiwan's best deterrent against the CCP and the CCP's intimidation tactics, while recognizing them as the fully independent nation the are supposed to be.

There is no way a fight over Taiwan does not go nuclear, and you need to stop trying to ignore how the Japan Exception changes the idea a fight over Taiwan would ever remain conventional.

 

[Zachowon]

Hmm, wonder why they call it the 'Japan Exception', not the 'Taiwan Exception'?

It's almost as if China is not interested in the conventional war the US military wants a fight over Taiwan to be, and now has an explicit policy that if Japan attempts to aid Taiwan conventionally, the CCP will nuke Japan and force the escalation. And we have a Congressionally ratified defense treaty with Japan, not just the nudge-nudge deal with have with Taiwan and the 'Two China Policy'.

Putting nukes on Taiwan, or giving them the ability to make their own, is Taiwan's best deterrent against the CCP and the CCP's intimidation tactics, while recognizing them as the fully independent nation the are supposed to be.

You are straight up saying "Lets declare war on China"

Do you honestly think China will nuke Japan if they get involved? I do not, because they are not stupid enough to throw away their whole country in nuclear fire for Taiwan.

 

[Bacle]

You are straight up saying "Lets declare war on China"

Do you honestly think China will nuke Japan if they get involved? I do not, because they are not stupid enough to throw away their whole country in nuclear fire for Taiwan.

I already answered that question, yes I fucking do think China will follow through with the Japan Exception.

You are gung ho for war with China anyway, you just want to pretend it will remain conventional, and that the CCP isn't serious about it's Japan Exception policy.

It's fucking cope for having your plans for conventional war over Taiwan preempted by CCP policy that does not have any interest in fight the war you want.

 

[Zachowon]

I already answered that question, yes I fucking do think China will follow through with the Japan Exception.

You are gung ho for war with China anyway, you just want to pretend it will remain conventional, and that the CCP isn't serious about it's Japan Exception policy.

It's fucking cope for having your plans for conventional war over Taiwan preempted by CCP policy that does not have any interest in fight the war you want.

It isn't fucking cope.

It is actually looking at what the adversary is doing, they wont go MAD for Taiwan

I know for sure Cina is not stupid enough to nuke Japan, because then they basically lose face that they cant take Taiwan, and decided to MAD.

 

[Bacle]

It isn't fucking cope.

It is actually looking at what the adversary is doing, they wont go MAD for Taiwan

I know for sure Cina is not stupid enough to nuke Japan, because then they basically lose face that they cant take Taiwan, and decided to MAD.

You can think whatever you want, but that Japan Exception is now CCP nuke policy.

The CCP see Taiwan and the issues around it as existential, and they are not interested in allowing anyone to think that a conflict over Taiwan will remain conventional.

 

[bintananth]

I know for sure Cina is not stupid enough to nuke Japan, because then they basically lose face that they cant take Taiwan, and decided to MAD.

No, you don't know that for sure. You might think you do, but you don't. You're just guessing and a "fight-or-flight" response is fight when flight is no longer possible.

 

[Zachowon]

You can think whatever you want, but that Japan Exception is now CCP nuke policy.

The CCP see Taiwan and the issues around it as existential, and they are not interested in allowing anyone to think that a conflict over Taiwan will remain conventional.

So China is willing to lose EVERYTHING in trying to take Taiwan? No, they aren't. Hell. the Army just recently published a whole thing about Chinese tactics (Which is open Source if you wanna read it) and it disagrees with this. At least as far as I read.

No, you don't know that for sure. You might think you do, but you don't. You're just guessing and a "fight-or-flight" response is fight when flight is no longer possible.

No, I do know for sure.
it is my job

 

[paulobrito]

So China is willing to lose EVERYTHING in trying to take Taiwan? No, they aren't. Hell. the Army just recently published a whole thing about Chinese tactics (Which is open Source if you wanna read it) and it disagrees with this. At least as far as I read.

No, I do know for sure.
it is my job

Sorry, you have work to do at home.
Write an essay of at least 50 pages, reporting how many times people with your job has been wrong, and why in the last 50 years.

 

[Zachowon]

Sorry, you have work to do at home.
Write an essay of at least 50 pages, reporting how many times people with your job has been wrong, and why in the last 50 years.

How many times Open source or non open source?

My job has been more correct then a vast majority of civilians with no military background in intel

 

[bintananth]

So China is willing to lose EVERYTHING in trying to take Taiwan? No, they aren't. Hell. the Army just recently published a whole thing about Chinese tactics (Which is open Source if you wanna read it) and it disagrees with this. At least as far as I read.

No, I do know for sure.
it is my job

That it's your job doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. Appeals to authority mean about as much to me as someone saying that used toilet paper is better than one of my wife's used and discarded tampons.

 

[Bacle]

So China is willing to lose EVERYTHING in trying to take Taiwan? No, they aren't. Hell. the Army just recently published a whole thing about Chinese tactics (Which is open Source if you wanna read it) and it disagrees with this. At least as far as I read.

And we are talking strategic level shit, not tactical level manvuers or options.

The Army doesn't even really have nukes anymore, so I'm not surprised the Army brass is trying to pretend war over Taiwan would remain a 'conventional' fight.

Because if they admit it won't stay conventional, and will most likely escalate to nukes, it renders most Army plans irrelevant, because the Army wouldn't be the one delivering the counterstrikes, the Navy and Air Force would. The only thing for the Army to do during a nuke exchange is maybe some ABM duties before most of the forces are knocked out or out of ammo.

 

[paulobrito]

How many times Open source or non open source?

My job has been more correct then a vast majority of civilians with no military background in intel

Maybe. I remember the assumptions about the Soviet Union that proved wrong - to be fair in both directions - after the fall and consulting the soviet records.

 

[bintananth]

Maybe. I remember the assumptions about the Soviet Union that proved wrong - to be fair in both directions - after the fall and consulting the soviet records.

The worst nuclear accidents (Chernobyl, Fukushima, 3 Mile Island, and a few others), while awful, weren't total catastrophes and are contained.

 

[Zachowon]

That it's your job doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. Appeals to authority mean about as much to me as someone saying that used toilet paper is better than one of my wife's used and discarded tampons.

This is a situation where I can't fo much but say I know.

And we are talking strategic level shit, not tactical level manvuers or options.

The Army doesn't even really have nukes anymore, so I'm not surprised the Army brass is trying to pretend war over Taiwan would remain a 'conventional' fight.

Because if they admit it won't stay conventional, and will most likely escalate to nukes, it renders most Army plans irrelevant, because the Army wouldn't be the one delivering the counterstrikes, the Navy and Air Force would. The only thing for the Army to do during a nuke exchange is maybe some ABM duties before most of the forces are knocked out or out of ammo.

You so knkw the Army ATP that was published is not tactics, but the doctrine of the enemy in general.

READ IT, because you would understand a lot more if if did

and no,, we always plan for conventional and non conventional warfare.

Maybe. I remember the assumptions about the Soviet Union that proved wrong - to be fair in both directions - after the fall and consulting the soviet records.

We also changed a lot of what we do since then, and have grown more into leaning on Intel with a lot more capabilities