The CCP have already put the Japan Exception into their nuke policy; Japan makes any move to assist Taiwan, they lose 2-3 cities at least. They nuke Japan, no way the US and others do not get involved with at least tit-for-tat nuclear retaliation.
This is almost certainly nothing but posturing, given Japan is explicitly under the US's nuclear protection umbrella. If China launches on Japan, the US launches and China ceases to exist.
Their unground Great Wall of China does give the CCP a large network (last I heard was over 3k in tunnels) of hardened bunkers and launch points to give them survivability, and they do have plenty of nukes that can reach the local neighborhood, are increasing their missile stockpile (remember the new silos they built), and have defense pacts with Iran, Pakistan, NK, and are fairly friendly with Russia.
This network of bunkers does not give them 'survivability' past the immediate short term. Their cities, population, industrial base, and military, would all still be pulverized, rendering them largely defunct as a nation.
On top of that, if China launches first, defense pacts are irrelevant. On top of that, from a perspective of 'real politik,' China and the US brutalizing each other is a win-win proposition for every one of those nations except for North Korea.
For example, why would Russia want to get involved in a nuclear exchange between China and the US, when just sitting it out actually gives them a shot at having the most powerful military in the world?
Also, the CCP is likely counting on Russia siding with them, and Russia does have the weapons/capability to go full MAD with the US, even with ABM systems (Status-6 torps and possibly 'mole missile' underground nukes pre-placed on the continental shelf). There is no way nuclear exchanges between peer opponents does not end in effective extinction level events from the rads, dust in the upper atmo, and destruction/contamination of food/water supplies for generations/centuries.
As already said, Russia has every reason to stay out of that exchange, and little to no reason to join in on it.
Further, you, like so many others, are grossly overestimating the lethality of mass-use of nuclear weapons. They aren't magic civilization-ending bombs, and we already
know they aren't going to do something crazy like light the whole atmosphere on fire. They would cause a
great deal of death and destruction, even more in the areas catching fallout downwind of the strike locations, but modern nuclear warheads don't present as much of a radiation threat as weapons 70 years ago did, much less what memes and Hollywood would have you believe.
So no, I understand MAD just fine; I'm just not so blindly nationalistic that I assume our enemies cannot end us as much as we can end them, or foolish enough to believe that such a conflict would not effectively end human civilization/possibly wipe us out. Maybe the Bushmen of the Kalahari can survive and eventually rebuild humanity from a full MAD exchange, but most of the rest of us and human civilization are fucked.
No, you don't understand MAD just fine. The USSR had a large enough nuclear arsenal, with a long enough reach, to functionally wipe out the US if they launched. If the Chinese manage to keep building up, they might be able to do the same in 10-20 years.
As things stand right now, the Chinese are estimated to have about
100 ICBMs , with
a little over 200 warheads , though some estimates run into the 300's. Reviewing lists of missile availability again, it looks like my memory was either off, or the lists have updated, and they have 60-100 ICBMs that could reach North America in service, not the 30-60 I'd thought.
The US, by contrast, has over 4000 warheads in service, 400 Minuteman III ICBMS capable of hitting China, 9 Nuclear submarines with delivery capability in the Pacific, 20 B-2 stealth bombers, and 40 B-52 Stratofortresses, all capable of delivering currently in-service nuclear payloads. This is compared to tens of thousands of active warheads during the Cold War, with a similar arsenal in Russia pointed back at us.
The Chinese have no bomber delivery capability that can reach the US, no nuclear submarine capability at all, and no ABM shield to try to stop launched missiles.
The CCP could hurt us. They could hurt our allies. They could hurt us quite badly. But in exchange,
they would cease to exist.
That is why they will not pull the trigger on nuclear exchange unless they've either gone completely insane (not impossible), or they're about to be destroyed anyways, which as stated is part of why the US will not be attempting a land invasion of mainland China.
MAD is why
neither side launches, because if they do
both sides lose. China would just lose harder, because they wouldn't exist as a coherent nation anymore.
Maybe in 10-20 years, if they maintain buildup, they'll have the arsenal to threaten us the same way Russia could. As things stand, they simply do not have the ability.
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