boomghost
I trust you know where the launch button is?
considering all the equipment thats likely being left behind by our troops as we pull out? they're gonna have a bunch of stuff already is my guess
China ChiCom News Thread
- Thread starter LordsFire
- Start date
Yeah about that.
China can't just waltz into Afghanistan. They have to go through some narrow mountain passes in very specific routes. Aka their whole invasion route is a series of massive easy to attack choke points. And in the highest mountain range on Earth to boot. Add in the fact the last time China attempted mountain combat they got their asses handed to them by India. It adds up to Babies first Afghan Adventure being a massive disaster for the CCP.
This is all assuming of course the Chinese don't already have an agreement with the Taliban through Pakistan. If all they need is the Taliban to operate and protect their facilities with a 30/40 profit sharing agreement, I don't see the Taliban particularly objecting to getting a billion dollars a year. Especially if their Pakistani allies also pressure them because a mine is a big payday to some Pakistani company too.
China doesn't really have any objectives that really need troops outside of maybe facility guards to protect Chinese engineers and such. They may have a pro Taliban stance now, depending how true the talk of Pakistan being pro Taliban is, and as an anti American thing, but ideologically they don't really have a dog over who wins the civil war. They can negotiate and work with either. They're may be a couple of Chinese businessmen still lying around who were dealing with them back in the 1990s when they took over.
And yeah, reading the article, the $64 billion seems to mostly be to build infrastructure integrating Afghanistan into Pakistan. The big specific project seems to be a road between Kabul and Peshawar, a Pakistani city. So, the basic plan seems to be to integrate Afghanistan into the Chinese sphere through Pakistan. And they've already signaled the willingness to throw billions of dollars at the Taliban.
The question therefore seems to be more how much Pakistan can achieve in Afghanistan with Chinese support.
China doesn't really have any objectives that really need troops outside of maybe facility guards to protect Chinese engineers and such. They may have a pro Taliban stance now, depending how true the talk of Pakistan being pro Taliban is, and as an anti American thing, but ideologically they don't really have a dog over who wins the civil war. They can negotiate and work with either. They're may be a couple of Chinese businessmen still lying around who were dealing with them back in the 1990s when they took over.
And yeah, reading the article, the $64 billion seems to mostly be to build infrastructure integrating Afghanistan into Pakistan. The big specific project seems to be a road between Kabul and Peshawar, a Pakistani city. So, the basic plan seems to be to integrate Afghanistan into the Chinese sphere through Pakistan. And they've already signaled the willingness to throw billions of dollars at the Taliban.
The question therefore seems to be more how much Pakistan can achieve in Afghanistan with Chinese support.
Are the current Taliban as close with thier Pakistani counterparts as they used to be? Because we have killed a LOT
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
They want their money?
Welp, we'll see how this goes.
But if China manages to bring the Taliban under it's control, and rebuild A-stan...I think those banking on the Taliban resisting or fighting China like they did us and everyone else may be wrong.
gral
Well-known member
At least for a while. I don't see, in the long term, the Taliban staying allies with the Chinese. Or with Pakistan, for that matter.
you can rent an Afgan but buying him not so much.
Afganistan politics is built upon backstabbing as a primary feature.
boomghost
I trust you know where the launch button is?
yeah, its basically just a matter of time before whoever they send in to do business there offends the wrong person, and suddenly afghanistan is a quagmire for them. (considering how china is treating the locals in africa)
DarthOne
☦️
...I'm starting to feel like I'm in a more watered-down, cyber-punk version of the Fallout timeline.
Typhonis
Well-known member
We aren't that lucky. I lack a cyber eye, cyber linked targeting for my m20 pulse rifle, subdermal armor, wolvers, and a hot redheaded hacker girlfriend.
That would have been terrifying if the Taliban were the Austrian, Swiss or Greek army.Yeah about that.
China can't just waltz into Afghanistan. They have to go through some narrow mountain passes in very specific routes. Aka their whole invasion route is a series of massive easy to attack choke points. And in the highest mountain range on Earth to boot. Add in the fact the last time China attempted mountain combat they got their asses handed to them by India. It adds up to Babies first Afghan Adventure being a massive disaster for the CCP.
In the India situation, that was a politically sensitive skirmish which is ridiculous by most standards because even small arms weren't used, it was a literal melee.
With Taliban, it would have been a full gloves off situation, with artillery preparation and air support.
Yeah, Pakistan is the man behind the curtain in the whole Afghanistan situation since ages. The Taliban do not exist without Pakistan's permission. How much would it cost Pakistan politically to withdraw it is another matter, but as long as they don't, no one can eradicate the Taliban in Afghanistan - at worst, when going gets tough they regroup with their clansmen in Pakistan and wait out until the other side gets less vigilant or distracted by some other events in the world.
It is also a known fact that Pakistan is an ally of China, and it cannot afford not to be, economically and strategically (fellow enemy of India). The west has since a long time (including when Soviets were fighting in Afghanistan) bribed Pakistan to be more neutral, but the bribes buy only temporary and limited loyalty, as we saw with the whole Bin Laden affair, and on account of its position China can also make exceptionally persuasive offers.
As such, unless China gets too greedy or Pakistan too unstable or obstructive, they have good chances to work something out.
Unlike USA or Soviet Union, the China-Pakistan alliance have little to no political need to set up some kind of civilizational-cultural change in Afghanistan (much like USA needed to try make it a at least somewhat liberal democratic, Soviets had to try make it a socialist republic), which is a red line to the Taliban and the populations they recruit from. They don't care and they don't need it anyway - Pakistan has the same barbarians running the border area on their side, and as for how much China cares about what happens in their satellite states, see NK. They only want Afghanistan for its strategic location in military and economic route aspects, and resource extraction. The rest they will be willing to give up to whoever can arrange safety to the previous endeavors, and unlike USA they also allow themselves to engage in
And if the Taliban suddenly decide that the deal is not good enough for them, then by that time China may well be deployed in enough of force to switch the carrot to a stick and implement their experiences and allied expertise from Xinjiang, Tibet, Myanmar and North Korea upon that land aswell.
They don't face guerilla warfare like A-stan should they piss of the taliban.
Then again we will find a way to make them hate each other
They didn't... But they have a bit of experience with very low level resistance in Xinjiang, a they have allies with a bit more in Myanmar that they could bring in as consultants.
Unlike Soviets, they aren't bankrupt (yet) and don't need to hold a massive amount of their first rate troops on a long border with NATO. Overall seems like a great target for them to test their military while keeping the conflict low stake - much like Soviets and USA, they will always be free to withdraw, and be back to square one. Unlike shenanigans in SEA which risk involving naval escalation with first rate western powers and Asian rivals, or getting southern neighbors to ally with above and inviting them to base there.
boomghost
I trust you know where the launch button is?
I doubt China would pull out willingly, their whole face based culture would see that as a major loss of face, so they'd do everything to crush resistance instead, probably including war crimes.