China ChiCom News Thread

[ATP]

The flights keep getting bigger and bigger. Largest incursion into Taiwanese ADIZ yet with 28 aircraft taking part in the incursion including 14 J-16 and six J-11 fighters, as well as four H-6 bombers.

Taiwan reports largest incursion yet by Chinese air force

Twenty-eight Chinese air force aircraft, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the island's government said, the largest reported incursion to date.

www.reuters.com

They could afford to wait,so there would be no war.If i were China commie,i would wait till Biden finish off USA and then politely asked Taiwan if they join voluntaliry or by force.

 

[Zachowon]

The flights keep getting bigger and bigger. Largest incursion into Taiwanese ADIZ yet with 28 aircraft taking part in the incursion including 14 J-16 and six J-11 fighters, as well as four H-6 bombers.

Taiwan reports largest incursion yet by Chinese air force

Twenty-eight Chinese air force aircraft, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the island's government said, the largest reported incursion to date.

www.reuters.com

They are really wanting Taiwan...

 

[Terthna]

They could afford to wait,so there would be no war.If i were China commie,i would wait till Biden finish off USA and then politely asked Taiwan if they join voluntaliry or by force.

Could they? We already know their economy is a house of cards that could topple over any moment; maybe the CCP knows something we don't. Something that would make them feel as if they have no time to spare anymore.

 

[Vaermina]

The flights keep getting bigger and bigger. Largest incursion into Taiwanese ADIZ yet with 28 aircraft taking part in the incursion including 14 J-16 and six J-11 fighters, as well as four H-6 bombers.

Taiwan reports largest incursion yet by Chinese air force

Twenty-eight Chinese air force aircraft, including fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the island's government said, the largest reported incursion to date.

www.reuters.com

Taiwan's likely just rolling their eyes at this point given how much wear the Chinese are putting on jet engines that have something like a 30 hour flight life.

 

[LordsFire]

Taiwan's likely just rolling their eyes at this point given how much wear the Chinese are putting on jet engines that have something like a 30 hour flight life.

Unfortunately, they have to treat each incursion like it might be loaded with live ordinance, until they can get visual confirmation that it isn't. Because getting first strikes in can be a massive advantage in a war.

 

[Zachowon]

Unfortunately, they have to treat each incursion like it might be loaded with live ordinance, until they can get visual confirmation that it isn't. Because getting first strikes in can be a massive advantage in a war.

There would be buildup of forces

 

[JagerIV]

Could they? We already know their economy is a house of cards that could topple over any moment; maybe the CCP knows something we don't. Something that would make them feel as if they have no time to spare anymore.

Eh, hopefully your right. At this point, eh. They've bought so much stuff overseas that an internal collapse without everything else collapsing might not be a reasonable assumption at this point. Like, just on US investments there's something like $120 billion in assets purchased just in the US. Overall, they've got about $2 trillion in accumulated foreign investment. This is on top of the approximately $1 trillion in US bonds China owns. This is potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in rents/interest on existing assets.

So, if China completely stopped selling anything to the rest of the world, it would still have billions of dollars flowing in from property to continue to buy needed goods. And if they ran such a deficit that they had to liquidate a $100 billion dollars of assets, on top of all other rents they already can get, it would take the Chinese 30 years to burn through their current foreign investment stocks.

I really don't see the house of cards outside of outright WWIII. Even by USSR trendlines they're a good 60-80 years away from collapse or things really getting bad internally.

 

[Terthna]

Eh, hopefully your right. At this point, eh. They've bought so much stuff overseas that an internal collapse without everything else collapsing might not be a reasonable assumption at this point. Like, just on US investments there's something like $120 billion in assets purchased just in the US. Overall, they've got about $2 trillion in accumulated foreign investment. This is on top of the approximately $1 trillion in US bonds China owns. This is potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in rents/interest on existing assets.

So, if China completely stopped selling anything to the rest of the world, it would still have billions of dollars flowing in from property to continue to buy needed goods. And if they ran such a deficit that they had to liquidate a $100 billion dollars of assets, on top of all other rents they already can get, it would take the Chinese 30 years to burn through their current foreign investment stocks.

I really don't see the house of cards outside of outright WWIII. Even by USSR trendlines they're a good 60-80 years away from collapse or things really getting bad internally.

Only because you're focusing on their international investments, and ignoring their domestic economy. Do some more digging into that, and you'll quickly see how screwed China is financially speaking.

 

[Zachowon]

Eh, hopefully your right. At this point, eh. They've bought so much stuff overseas that an internal collapse without everything else collapsing might not be a reasonable assumption at this point. Like, just on US investments there's something like $120 billion in assets purchased just in the US. Overall, they've got about $2 trillion in accumulated foreign investment. This is on top of the approximately $1 trillion in US bonds China owns. This is potentially hundreds of billions of dollars in rents/interest on existing assets.

So, if China completely stopped selling anything to the rest of the world, it would still have billions of dollars flowing in from property to continue to buy needed goods. And if they ran such a deficit that they had to liquidate a $100 billion dollars of assets, on top of all other rents they already can get, it would take the Chinese 30 years to burn through their current foreign investment stocks.

I really don't see the house of cards outside of outright WWIII. Even by USSR trendlines they're a good 60-80 years away from collapse or things really getting bad internally.

As Terthna said.
Domestically they are falling apart.
All it takes is for a major disaster to strike such as the dam busting and they lose most of thier natural agriculture and a large percentage of thier population. They would most likely have a growing rebellion at that point.

Add in if they attack Taiwqn they would lose ANKTHER large amount of thier population.
Population they need.

 

[JagerIV]

Only because you're focusing on their international investments, and ignoring their domestic economy. Do some more digging into that, and you'll quickly see how screwed China is financially speaking.

Eh, a terrible collapse requires them not being able to get something their currently getting. Generally, that requires not being able to buy things. Thus, the fact that they're no where close to not being able to buy things is important: the USSR for example famously was dealt serious death blows because their oil industry stagnated late 70s staying flat for 10 years while oil prices collapsed.

That above represents a real revue loss for the USSR from 1980 to 1990 while they kept the production level from $540 million at the peak to $180 million a day. Even going from the $50 per barrel to $30 per barrel represents a loss in income of $7 billion dollars of loss revenue per year. That's a single point that represents something like 10% reduction in USSR foreign sales, which were in the about $100-200 billion range (1990s dollars, so not quite the same).

I don't see anything that difficult for China in any of the data I've been shown. They are still building. They're population is still growing. There's economics problems which may get very bad . . . 40-80 years from now.

I don't know. All the data I've been shown on how collapse is immanent would have suggested that the Germans or English should have collapsed in 1980s or 1880s respectively. Which, obviously, did not occur. Now, Britain did fall apart as a global power in the wake of a global war, and a big global war could be bad for them, certainly.

Short of that however? Well, there's a Billion Chinese, and the factories exist at this point. They're still at half the GDP per Capita of Japan, so just competently copying Japanese efficiency still leaves room for about a doubling of GDP without anything else without having to do any reinventing of the wheel. They could stop growing in PPP terms and it would take the US 10 years of about 2% growth to catch up to where they are now. Anything that happens to china They're going to be in the top 3-4 States on Earth.

 

[Zachowon]

Eh, a terrible collapse requires them not being able to get something their currently getting. Generally, that requires not being able to buy things. Thus, the fact that they're no where close to not being able to buy things is important: the USSR for example famously was dealt serious death blows because their oil industry stagnated late 70s staying flat for 10 years while oil prices collapsed.

That above represents a real revue loss for the USSR from 1980 to 1990 while they kept the production level from $540 million at the peak to $180 million a day. Even going from the $50 per barrel to $30 per barrel represents a loss in income of $7 billion dollars of loss revenue per year. That's a single point that represents something like 10% reduction in USSR foreign sales, which were in the about $100-200 billion range (1990s dollars, so not quite the same).

I don't see anything that difficult for China in any of the data I've been shown. They are still building. They're population is still growing. There's economics problems which may get very bad . . . 40-80 years from now.

I don't know. All the data I've been shown on how collapse is immanent would have suggested that the Germans or English should have collapsed in 1980s or 1880s respectively. Which, obviously, did not occur. Now, Britain did fall apart as a global power in the wake of a global war, and a big global war could be bad for them, certainly.

Short of that however? Well, there's a Billion Chinese, and the factories exist at this point. They're still at half the GDP per Capita of Japan, so just competently copying Japanese efficiency still leaves room for about a doubling of GDP without anything else without having to do any reinventing of the wheel. They could stop growing in PPP terms and it would take the US 10 years of about 2% growth to catch up to where they are now. Anything that happens to china They're going to be in the top 3-4 States on Earth.

They will lose a lot of their people if the dam breaks, they go to war. They have a MASSIVE age issue as well.

 

[JagerIV]

They will lose a lot of their people if the dam breaks, they go to war. They have a MASSIVE age issue as well.

Sure, a terrible enough natural disaster or war is bad for anyone. They don't really have a massive age issue though. That's one of those things people claim is a major problem, mostly without evidence. Well, they point to the 1 child policy, which most people only really know the name of, which was only a 1 child policy, effectively, for 3 years. That, and millions of Chinese not following the law, means China has not really had a one child policy demographically, and thus while the communist heavyhandedness spread a great deal of suffering, China does not actually have demographics dramatically worse than many western countries, and is actually better.

And, well, all this assumes the be all end all of demographics is having a growing population of young people. Which, well, if that was the case Afanistan and the rest of the middle east would be hopping. That's not really the case. China at this stage is still probably if anything overpopulated: part of the problems they're running into is trying to support 1.4 billion people at high levels of development, especially on the somewhat limited land they have, is difficult. Like, China already consumes something like 1/5th of the worlds GDP (PPP). In order to support their people at generic European levels, they need to double or triple their consumption, which would be consuming like half of the current global resource production.

People seem to look at chinese demographics mostly through the prism of a welfare state supporting old people with young people. Such concerns I think are greatly overblown. Old poor people are simply not a revolutionary problem.

 

[Terthna]

Sure, a terrible enough natural disaster or war is bad for anyone. They don't really have a massive age issue though. That's one of those things people claim is a major problem, mostly without evidence. Well, they point to the 1 child policy, which most people only really know the name of, which was only a 1 child policy, effectively, for 3 years. That, and millions of Chinese not following the law, means China has not really had a one child policy demographically, and thus while the communist heavyhandedness spread a great deal of suffering, China does not actually have demographics dramatically worse than many western countries, and is actually better.

And, well, all this assumes the be all end all of demographics is having a growing population of young people. Which, well, if that was the case Afanistan and the rest of the middle east would be hopping. That's not really the case. China at this stage is still probably if anything overpopulated: part of the problems they're running into is trying to support 1.4 billion people at high levels of development, especially on the somewhat limited land they have, is difficult. Like, China already consumes something like 1/5th of the worlds GDP (PPP). In order to support their people at generic European levels, they need to double or triple their consumption, which would be consuming like half of the current global resource production.

People seem to look at chinese demographics mostly through the prism of a welfare state supporting old people with young people. Such concerns I think are greatly overblown. Old poor people are simply not a revolutionary problem.

Young people produce wealth; old people consume it (mind you, I am not talking about welfare here). Therefore; if you have more old people than young people, your economy operates at a net loss. It shouldn't be that difficult of a concept to grasp.

 

[ATP]

Could they? We already know their economy is a house of cards that could topple over any moment; maybe the CCP knows something we don't. Something that would make them feel as if they have no time to spare anymore.

Maybe - but if nothing change,Biden would finish USA first.

 

[Bacle]

What the fuck...wow. That is...monumental for a guy at his rank and station to defect.

 

[Arch Dornan]

What the fuck...wow. That is...monumental for a guy at his rank and station to defect.

Shit must be fucked back home for him to abandon ship.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Or something was fucked up for him, like a major scandal of his about to break out.

 

[prinCZess]

Could have been he was going to be blamed for some kind of major screwup and found out about it beause of his position..To which my immediate thought goes to 'Wuhan flu', but that's entirely hypothetical and based only on big-name foreign current events. Could've been something interior to China that's unrelated--and Xi has been consolidating his power for years now, so there's another big-name potential vector.
Of course...Or it could be he was given fat $tack$ of money or something else more mundane.

 

[Husky_Khan]

An Alibaba affiliate scraped a billion points of data including mobile phone numbers and usernames from Alibaba's shopping operation Taobao.

163.com suggests the source of the crawler was a company that makes money from affiliate referrals to Taobao, and that the site was scraped from November 2019 until Alibaba noticed the activity in July 2020. Alibaba notified authorities, an investigation commenced, and the matter landed in the People’s Court of Suiyang District — which in May convicted a developer and his employer of lifting the data.

Both were sentenced to three years inside.

Thankfully, the perps appear not to have shared the data, instead hoarding it for their own purposes.

Alibaba suffers billion-item data leak of usernames and mobile numbers

Shopping service Taobao scraped by affiliate marketer; developer and boss jailed

www.theregister.com

 

[Sailor.X]

Whenever you see a Tim Pool video on China. Remember these two videos bellow to remind you he does not know what he is talking about.