Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

History Learner

Well-known member
So Russia is going on the offensive to attempt to retake territory via river crossings in winter where the vehicles alone Are struggling to get through the mud, with conscripts and attrited units??

Probably not, no, but AFU is keeping groupings in Kherson and Kharkov instead of reinforcing Donbass line; I think in the case of Kherson it's a pinning move, but Odessa did go dark recently from the energy grid attacks. Friendly reminder 80% of Ukraine's locomotives are electric and most cargo, including AFU logistics, is dependent upon the railways. Up to 50% of their energy grid has been destroyed now and they're expecting further missile attacks. Chatter for the past two weeks has been sometime around the 15th, so we will see how accurate that is soon.

All indicators are off future offensive action, just the specific intent is not sure. Ukies are getting chewed up terribly around Bakhmut; Russians have numerical and firepower superiority. Main blow could be towards Lvov, Kiev or Sumy-Chernigov is my take, especially leaning on the last one.

What's SVR?

Russian CIA essentially; FSB is more like their version of the FBI. The Pro-Ukrainian channel "Eternal Muscovite" posted about this a couple of hours after I posted that btw; keep an eye on this story lol.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member

ATP

Well-known member
Marines were involved in evacuating the diplomatic mission and providing security when it was re-established, and involved in training them on weapon systems in country. Also, the sky is blue, water is wet and the Russian armed forces rape children.
postsoviet armed forces.And they rape everybody,including their fellow soldiers.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
I mean, they are probably working with the Embassy to allow for thus stuff.
It's like if Russian missile hits the US embassy.
They hir US citizens that sre there to make sure things are given out properly.
So yeah...
Welcome to modern times. Embassies count as a countries land and people
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
So... America should withdraw the armed protection from all their embassies, to ensure they don't suddenly decide to start a war?
Embassies are agreed to be extraterritorial on paper. What does that have to do with the trend of sending military advisers escalating into more arms and more volunteers joining as deniable assets into a war?
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
Embassies are agreed to be extraterritorial on paper. What does that have to do with the trend of sending military advisers escalating into more arms and more volunteers joining as deniable assets into a war?
In one of the examples you actually cited, that was the majority of what it talked about. The rest was training for donated equipment. Which is kinda necessary. It simply makes sense to train in country rather than fly detachment of the UAF all over the world to train on all the equipment from everywhere. In the nearly a year the war has run, there's been no indication of the kind of escalating involvement you're paranoid about, from American forces or anyone else's.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
In one of the examples you actually cited, that was the majority of what it talked about. The rest was training for donated equipment. Which is kinda necessary. It simply makes sense to train in country rather than fly detachment of the UAF all over the world to train on all the equipment from everywhere. In the nearly a year the war has run, there's been no indication of the kind of escalating involvement you're paranoid about, from American forces or anyone else's.
It has? HIMARs are being sent. Target data from Western intelligence has been provided for Russian forces, the patriot missile defense system is shipped in and more deniable assets are sent in to volunteer and reinforce the Ukranian army.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
So Russia is going on the offensive to attempt to retake territory via river crossings in winter where the vehicles alone Are struggling to get through the mud, with conscripts and attrited units??

There's been an explosion in news the past 24 hours, biggest piece was confirmation of the Belarus axis via no less than the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Zaluzhnyi:

“According to our estimates, they (Russia) have a reserve of 1.2-1.5 million people ... the Russians are training about 200,000 new soldiers. I have no doubt that they will make another trip to Kyiv,” Valerii Zaluzhnyi told The Economist magazine.​
Zaluzhnyi rejected claims that there are problems in Russia concerning a lack of will to fight.​
"Russian mobilization worked. It is not true that their problems are so serious that these people will not fight. They will,” said Zaluzhnyi. “I studied the history of the two Chechen wars -- it was the same. They may not be as well equipped, but they are still a problem for us.”
Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine does not have enough resources to carry out new major operations on the frontline but work to procure such resources was underway.
"I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs (infantry fighting vehicles), 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd," he said.​

Ukies are getting chewed up terribly around Bakhmut; Russians have numerical and firepower superiority.



Main blow could be towards Lvov, Kiev or Sumy-Chernigov is my take, especially leaning on the last one.

At this point, it seems to be a replay of February in terms of the Kiev thrust with supporting attack on the Sumy-Chernigov axis. Earlier this week I was hearing reports of increased Russian DRG activity on the latter, and now that's being reported by Pro-Ukrainian sources too:



Logistical buildup is increasing in scale and tempo in Belarus too:







Plenty more you can cite, but you get the idea.
 
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History Learner

Well-known member
It has? HIMARs are being sent. Target data from Western intelligence has been provided for Russian forces, the patriot missile defense system is shipped in and more deniable assets are sent in to volunteer and reinforce the Ukranian army.

U.S. special forces have been on the ground for months, we found that out in October. There's also indications those recent strikes on Russian air bases were only possible with U.S. targeting assistance.
 

History Learner

Well-known member
Up to 50% of their energy grid has been destroyed now and they're expecting further missile attacks. Chatter for the past two weeks has been sometime around the 15th, so we will see how accurate that is soon.

It's possible this has been accurate:





Air Raid alarms across most of Ukraine at the moment; not sure yet, but the timing fits with the chatter I mentioned.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
It has? HIMARs are being sent. Target data from Western intelligence has been provided for Russian forces, the patriot missile defense system is shipped in and more deniable assets are sent in to volunteer and reinforce the Ukranian army.
Targeting and intelligence have been provided from the get go, so that's no escalation. Different types of equipment being sent to meet evolving needs is no escalation of involvement either. The idea of "deniable assets" as volunteers or reinforcements is laughable and entirely unsupported.
 

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