Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

TBF you weren't supposed to click the hyperlink, just take it as a measure of total confidence that he is right that Oryx claimed 234 combat aircraft shot down instead of 55 because he provided said hyperlink.

I can tell just from a glance that the people at Oryx's blog have claimed that their documented losses on the Ukrainian page are the correct amount and totally not that "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher then recorded" there.
History Learner's research methods follow the classic methodology of 'look exactly as far as necessary to see what I want to see, and then ignore everything else.'

Honestly, at this point he's gone from frustrating to entertaining.

The coping and seething I induce in you both by living in your heads rent free is amazing, and is best evidenced by the fact that even when I'm not around, you both talk about me. :)
 
NATO didn't expand u til Russia invaded.
Finland and Sweden are joining NATO by vote.
And unlike these referendums that are forcing people, by gunpoint, the ones in Sweden and Finland are doing it fair.

Also, I get most of my information from non state sources
 
NATO didn't expand u til Russia invaded.
Finland and Sweden are joining NATO by vote.
And unlike these referendums that are forcing people, by gunpoint, the ones in Sweden and Finland are doing it fair.

Also, I get most of my information from non state sources

Would you like to cite me where the people of Sweden and Finland were allowed to vote on NATO membership?
 
No obligation to respond to people. If you can elect to spend your free time doing something recreational like forum posting, might as well focus on making it a positive experience for yourself (and those you interact with).

I do think even my interactions, here or elsewhere (be it real life or online forums), even the ones which could be argued to be negative, as positive. As I said to my intimate friend "without discussions we wouldn't grew up as human beings and souls".
 
Because I'm not, it's that simple. I know it's hard to swallow, but that's the indisputable fact. To state my minimum conditions for Russian victory for later usage, the entirety of the DPR and LPR will be taken, and Ukraine will be forced to recognize Crimea.



Over Ukraine? It absolutely does, and I challenge you to prove otherwise.

Putin started war to take ENTIRE Ukraine.In 2 weeks.Now,you said that he win if you keep what he had in 2014?
But - you are right saing that soviets could win,but for wrong reason.
They would not win on battlefield,becouse of lack both good commanders and good soldiers willing to risk their life.
BUT - THEY COULD WIN,IF:

1.They have hidden super army which wait for RIGHT HOUR.Since it is kgb- not impossible
2.Biden would gave them Ukraine for free,just like FDR and Truman once gave Poland.
3.KGB would kill Putin,,and another putin would come as "liberal" - and,after rebuilding army,attack again after 10 years.

P.S since you could be soviet spy,i ask you to not meet your kgb handlers alone.They could decide,that you serve them better dead then alive.
I hope,that it not happened to @Chiron .
 
I...what the fuck did they do that for?

Becouse they are postsoviets.And ,just as soviets,they could not live without mass graves.It is their curtural heritage.

P.S @History Learner ,germans would never deliver anything important to Ukraine,becouse they ARE MOSCOV ALLIES.
And USA do not delivered anything new except HIMARS so far,becouse they want deal with Moscov,not help Ukraine.
Remember,How Biden 5 days before war proposed putin taking only smaller part of Ukraina?
 
More Mobilization Porn!

Dagestan, Bordering Chechnya in the Caucasus.



And in Checnnya Itself, Kadyrov totally acting the Boss.



Omsk, Major City in Southwestern Siberia North of Kazakhstan



Poor Eyesight and Deaf in One Ear Still Means He Can See and Hear. But Public Outcry Can Apparently Still Save You.



Especially from State Propagandists!

Mobilizing the Medical Professionals!



Lotta Recruitment Chaos.
 
I'm just going to go out on a limb and assume that Sweden and Finland probably have some sort of Republic based representative legislature that the population elects that decides things like laws and treaties.
I think so too.
Therefore globalist agenda.
Something along those lines.
Still better to ask someone from there on how a country feels instead of an outsider
 
Russia has, as stated, five to one advantage in manpower so pray to do tell why taking a 5:1 loss rate in Kherson, for example, is a winning strategy? Credible claims of equipment loss rates of 40% in the Kharkov offensive have been advanced, which fits with the sudden Ukrainian push for more AFVs from NATO; how exactly is that a winning strategy?
Except... It's Russia loosing troops at a 5 to 1 ratio...

And it was Russian troops who had the upwards of 40% equipment loss in the Kharkov rout.

Ukraine has been in a general mobilization since February, they are now on their sixth wave. Russia is just now calling up reserve formations. Ukraine has been in a war economy since February and is completely dependent upon the West. Russia has yet to transition to a war economy and has been mostly existing off its own war stocks. Russia acquiring UAVs from Iran is somehow a negative to you (nevermind Ukraine with TB2s from Turkey and Switchblades from the U.S.), meanwhile AFU general staff is literally saying this:
Third not Sixth.

Ukraine puts each group through roughly three months training before sending them out into the field fully equipped.

Which is also why everybody is laughing at Russia here, because they throw their people at the front without training or equipment.
 
Last two Perun Videos have been pretty good, as in they talk about War Stuff instead of more peripheral topics which pleases my barbaric mind.

His latest video was on Russian Equipment losses and Ukrainian Captures from Said Russian Equipment Losses. It's actually short for a Perun video, only a mere hour and some minutes long. Plus a good half of the video is from Nicholas Moran, 'The Chieftain,' the famous (World of) Tanks YouTuber.

The Chieftain talks about maintenance and repair of tanks and how militaries deal and organize and classify such things, including captures of abandoned or surrendered enemy equipment and the levels of maintenance often need for vehicles. Perun meanwhile talked a lot about the actual conflict and how it affects Ukraine and the War itself. And you learn some interesting facts. One interesting tidbit is that Bulgaria is apparently repairing or offering to repair eighty armored vehicles for Ukraine (along with selling them Soviet-style munitions).



His earlier video however was about the first seven months of the War and he breaks it down. He covers the initial first months of the campaign "To Kyiv and Back" followed by "The Grind" which covered the War for the Donbass after the Russian feint. It actually takes a while for him to discuss the successful Kharkiv Counteroffensive and more importantly the issues that impacted Russia's failure to effectively respond to that Offensive. Good watching.

 
You conveniently disappearing when I cite evidence, and me not citing evidence, are very different things.

Yes because the former never happens and the latter is constant. Case in point is you doing exactly as I said in this post no less, in that you've never responded to any of the evidence and are just repeating yourself.

The fact that you still act like it's Russia's industry vs Ukraine's industry is in and of itself telling.

Or it's a representation, again exactly as I said, of you living in your own bubble:


Ukraine to U.S. Defense Industry: We Need Long-Range, Precision Weapons
We have received a large number of weapon systems, but unfortunately with such a massively expendable resource, it only covers 10 to 15 percent of our needs. We need artillery, we need artillery rounds, infantry fighting vehicles, combat vehicles, tanks. We really need air-defense systems and the multiple launch rocket system.
In a single article, Ukrainian officials admitted Oryx is completely wrong in all of his figures for Ukrainian losses and that Western Aid is completely insufficient to make up for the fact Russia has a massively larger economy than Ukraine. @LordsFire I really do think you should this article as an additional piece of why I am convinced Ukraine will inevitably lose the war, since we've been discussing this idea elsewhere.

Isn't it funny you claim this, when I've directly addressed it multiple times? You can't even lie and say you didn't see that because in the last one I directly @ you. In my last post I directly explained how you operate and in your very next post you prove my analysis completely correct, as usual.
 
And once again you go back to an argument where you have failed to address the key point:

What are Russia's stockpiles and production numbers actually like?

When you brought up the issue before, I agreed that the US's production capabilities have declined. It's very well-documented.

However, when trying to supply numbers specifically on artillery shell production, all that you had was one indirect reference to a tweet that claimed the Ukrainians had been making 2 million shells a year for the Russians until the mess in 2014. No greater substantiation, no figures on what Russian production was like, and no clear numbers on what current stockpiles were like.

You just acted like you had proven your point, when the crux of the whole thing was completely lacking.

To meet and exceed your standard of evidence of one tweet referencing Ukrainian production, I showed a link to a tweet with an estimate of what Russia's pre-war shell stockpile had been like. I never saw you reply to that. Not the best cite, but the Russians are squirrely about letting people know how much they've actually been producing, and still better than what you offered.

You also failed to address the issue of how much of its budget Russia actually spent on shells each year to meet the kinds of numbers you were implying.

So yes, you conveniently disappeared when I cited evidence.
 
Except... It's Russia loosing troops at a 5 to 1 ratio...

Except that's a lie, would you like to try again?

And it was Russian troops who had the upwards of 40% equipment loss in the Kharkov rout.

Except that is, again, a lie. Would you like to try again?

Third not Sixth.

Ukraine puts each group through roughly three months training before sending them out into the field fully equipped.

Which is also why everybody is laughing at Russia here, because they throw their people at the front without training or equipment.

Except that is all, once again, a lie. Would you like try again?

Why not ask the local fin?
@Tyzuris

Or, you could answer the question given you felt confident enough to present the argument in the first place despite being neither Ukrainian nor Russian. You don't have to be a Finn or a Swede to use Google.
 

Are you really bringing up that specific article again? Where one low-ranking officer on the battlefield accounts for his specific perspective on his specific area of the battle?

And again ignoring a key quote later in the article?

"A clear picture of Ukraine’s losses could not be independently assessed.

Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed."

This is exactly what I said you would do. Look exactly far enough to find what you wanted to see, then studiously don't look at all at other accounts that contradict what you want to believe.
 
You might want to read your own article.

Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed.

A 25-year-old soldier being treated for shrapnel wounds said that, within his unit of 100 soldiers, seven were killed and 20 injured.

Ihor, the platoon commander, said 16 of the 32 men under his command were injured and one was killed.


Except that is, again, a lie. Would you like to try again?

Except that is all, once again, a lie. Would you like try again?
You repeating "that's a lie" doesn't actually make that true.
 
And once again you go back to an argument where you have failed to address the key point:

What are Russia's stockpiles and production numbers actually like?

Ah, once again not answering any of the points I listed and goalpost shifting into something they have you not asked at all this entire dialogue so as to falsely present the fascade that I haven't addressed....before then immediately admitting we have, in fact, went over this before. I won't even address the fact you apparently lack the courage of conviction to @ me, despite having previously trying to pull the "well you don't respond" card.

When you brought up the issue before, I agreed that the US's production capabilities have declined. It's very well-documented.

However, when trying to supply numbers specifically on artillery shell production, all that you had was one indirect reference to a tweet that claimed the Ukrainians had been making 2 million shells a year for the Russians until the mess in 2014. No greater substantiation, no figures on what Russian production was like, and no clear numbers on what current stockpiles were like.

You just acted like you had proven your point, when the crux of the whole thing was completely lacking.

Or, you know, you could look at the context of that particular conversation being me citing the Twitter thread as a whole. If you wanted more evidence, you need only ask so directly in this conversation. Here's a Pro Ukrainian take, for example:

Based on these figures, it is possible to estimate the volume of artillery ammunition production itself. If we look at the earnings of the corresponding industrial enterprises and conglomerates, we will see that during those years they ranged between 80-100 billion rubles. The earnings, of course, also include civilian products, which in some enterprises account for 25-30% of the total revenue. As a consequence, the ratio between recovered and newly produced munitions can be estimated, albeit roughly, as 1:2. Or for each 570,000 shells restored, there are up to 1.14 million new ones. Thus, the total annual rate of replenishment of artillery arsenals in the 2010s did not exceed 1.6-1.7 million shells of all types. It is worth mentioning an interesting detail: the supply of rockets of all types in 2017, for example, amounted to only 10,700.​

To meet and exceed your standard of evidence of one tweet referencing Ukrainian production, I showed a link to a tweet with an estimate of what Russia's pre-war shell stockpile had been like. I never saw you reply to that. Not the best cite, but the Russians are squirrely about letting people know how much they've actually been producing, and still better than what you offered.
A farewell to arms. By year end Russia will be left almost without shells, artillery and armored vehicles
You also failed to address the issue of how much of its budget Russia actually spent on shells each year to meet the kinds of numbers you were implying.

Interesting thesis Cotton, let's square it up with reality from RUSI:

Despite these frictions, Russia has achieved fires dominance through the sheer volume of tactical​
artillery and munitions that it can bring to bear.17 In addition to vast stockpiles that the Soviet​
Union accumulated, and which have yet to be depleted18 – by some estimates, several years’​
worth still remains19 – the Russian defence industry has a significant capacity for producing​
artillery shells. For example, Soviet-era armaments factories based in Ukraine were fulfilling​
orders for Russian forces up until 2014 with the capacity to assemble 2,000,000 152-mm howitzer​
shells per year in contracts that had been continued since the 1980s.20 Many similar large-scale​
plants remain in operation inside Russia. Although the Ukrainian factory had the capacity to​
assemble this many shells, actual outputs were often slightly below this figure, largely because​
of a bottleneck in the production of explosive material for the propellant and warhead.21​

What do you know, exactly as the tweet thread said, eh?

So yes, you conveniently disappeared when I cited evidence.

Just ignore all the replies that happened before that, as you always do.
 
Are you really bringing up that specific article again? Where one low-ranking officer on the battlefield accounts for his specific perspective on his specific area of the battle?

You mean the article that I already showed before Husky was lying about and now you are too, as Vaermina funnily enough quotes at the bottom to show you don't even know the basic fact they interviewed multiple individuals? Perhaps you should take the time to actually read before lashing out.

And again ignoring a key quote later in the article?

"A clear picture of Ukraine’s losses could not be independently assessed.

Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed."

Sure, we don't know exact losses but taking the statements of senior officials on the record and comparing them to available evidence, we can make good guesses. If you were genuine about this point, instead of desperately picking at straws, how come you've never exercised this same caution when talking about Russian losses, both in manpower or material? We have an even less clear cut picture for them, by your new found standards, given the lack of media and official statements.

Let's not pretend you're doing anything here other than being a hypocrite.

This is exactly what I said you would do. Look exactly far enough to find what you wanted to see, then studiously don't look at all at other accounts that contradict what you want to believe.

You've now reached the point of your coping you're attempting to repurpose my own analysis of you as your own to flail against me. At least try to attack me with original material.

You might want to read your own article.

Denys, sitting upright on his hospital bed, said almost every member of his 120-person unit was injured, though only two were killed.

A 25-year-old soldier being treated for shrapnel wounds said that, within his unit of 100 soldiers, seven were killed and 20 injured.

Ihor, the platoon commander, said 16 of the 32 men under his command were injured and one was killed.

I did, but it's clear you didn't:

“We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.

You repeating "that's a lie" doesn't actually make that true.

Yes, my statements being based in reality is what make them true. If you feel otherwise, instead of just claiming them, let's see some evidence. You can't attack me for treating your arguments with the same standard you did in presenting them.
 

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