Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
He won his war, he did exactly what G.H.W. Bush told him to do and liberated Kuwait. Zachowon failed to win his war.



The war is practically over. Ukraine's military and industry is broken. The only choice they have is an honorable peace, ceding Kherson Oblast, most of Zapohrizia Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, and Luhansk, in return for having Russia leave Kharkiv Oblast. They keep Odessa Port, their main industrial cities and ore regions, and can get their farmers out to plant and bring the refugees home. Its a good deal and Putin would likely sign it over the objections of the Duma. He walks away with a clear victory, and Ukraine stays functionally intact.

The other option is to die as martyrs, immolating the country as Putin takes his time to work the nation over and drive millions more west as refugees, causing more economic damage to the EU which stripped itself bare of its reserve stocks to send aid. Given the EU is already fracturing from dealing with Covid, the longer the war lasts, the faster they crumble.

Your inability to understand how Russia fights and wins wars is not my problem. If Zachowon can't be bothered to read publications on the Soviet Based Doctrine the US Army made in the late 80s, that is on him. People like Armchair Warrior will beat on him, because people like Zachowon lose wars.

I was clear from the beginning that Kyiv was a double feint, it was quite obvious just from the Terrain and the forces allocated to it vs the South. There was also every indication Russia was employing encrypted radios and satellite uplinks, from photos, and the tendency of Ukraine to claim they killed a General only for them to show back up alive later. Russia also deployed large numbers of decoys, including inflatable trucks to create the infamous convoy which they moved around with a mixture of real trucks.

Oh and remember all those UkA commandoes in the first 2 weeks posting tiktoks? Disappeared after 2 weeks because they were essentially light infantry up against roving mechanized kill teams that fixed them in place and pounded them.

Note the Russians easily broke contact and withdrew in good order and entrained to Donbass and Kharkiv Front where they are once again in combat, without the UkA being aware of it or able to pursue. They were able to do that because the UkA lost the bulk of its AFVs and artillery, the majority of their fuel, an the bulk of their ammo. Their commandoes suffered unsustainable causalities attacking Russian Convoys, and civilian insurgents got shredded. Now the UkA in the north is a largely immobile force with technicals, an odd AFV or two, and little artillery that has little ability to move during the day and at the mercy of Russian Night Aviation if they travel in too large of a convoy. They are thus unable to help in any way with regards to the south.

Russia on the other hand can move freely during the day, and pound all day and night with artillery without having to worry about counterfires or CAS very much. With is a massive firepower advantage the Ukrainians can't counter.

Also the final clue about Kyiv not being the focus is Russia simply not having set up collaborators or sent the victory flags to V and O groups. Troops in the North were allowed to loot unlike in the south where it would be bad for business.

If none of that makes sense to you, well it does to the Russians who win wars and have a long tradition of warfare that is unique to them and works.
What war have I failed to win?
If you say A-stan I was never in theater and never had anything I could actually fo there besides grumble because the higher ups had the gal to pull out in such a horrible way.

We then get to watch as Russia does a worse job then the US has done in modern history. I get to be apart of history as when the US IC was right.

I have money on a larger war happening sooner then later
 

Battlegrinder

Someday we will win, no matter what it takes.
Moderator
Staff Member
Founder
Obozny
He won his war, he did exactly what G.H.W. Bush told him to do and liberated Kuwait. Zachowon failed to win his war.

You do realize that no one is buying this "US lost the war in Afghanistan" thing that you've been harping on over for weeks, right? A political decision to leave will not transform into a military defeat no matter how many times you insist otherwise.

The war is practically over.

Yeah, whatever, you've been saying that for weeks over and over again and there's no evidence that it's true. Let's go over you russiaboo fanfiction and see how long it takes you to screw it up and reveal you have no idea what you're talking about.


Ukraine's military and industry is broken.

Well, that was fast.

Leaving aside the military bit, which you don't know and don't cite anything to prove, the fact that you cite there industry being ruined as reason why they've lost immediately proves you have no idea what you're talking about. Please go check your calendar, you should see that the year is 2022 and not sometime in the 1940s. Destroying an enemy's industrial facilities will do next to nothing to impede their ability to wage war, because today, as opposed to the 40s, it takes so long to build and replace military equipment that even with it's industry intact neither Ukraine nor Russia would have only been able to produce a small amount of new equipment, not anywhere near enough to replace destroyed equipment. every weapon that will be used in this war already exists, either in Russia, Ukraine, or a western country on it's way to Ukraine.

Destroyed industry will make it harder for Ukraine to rebuild afterwards, it will have a major impact on their postwar economy and cause hardship postwar, but it will have next to no effect on if they win or lose the war right now.

Everything else you've said is likewise outright fiction or clear evidence you don't know what you're talking about.

causing more economic damage to the EU which stripped itself bare of its reserve stocks to send aid. Given the EU is already fracturing from dealing with Covid, the longer the war lasts, the faster they crumble.

"We're going to this war with our stockpile of equipment, vs Ukraine and it's stockpiles plus the stockpiles of everyone else in the world, and the rest of the world is replacing Ukraine's lost equipment with new stuff while we cannot our own loses, which favors us because reason."

He, wasn't the EU supposed to be having food riots because of the gold standard or something right now, accord to you from last week?

Your inability to understand how Russia fights and wins wars is not my problem.

I don't care what you say here, because you have not demonstrated the slightest bit of military knowledge or understand and so are in no position to offer that critique.

I was clear from the beginning that Kyiv was a double feint, it was quite obvious just from the Terrain and the forces allocated to it vs the South.

Ok, prove it Mr "I tots know army stuff":

800wm


Here's a sat photo kyiv, please explain these terrain factors that mean any attack on it must be some kind 4D chess double feint.

And also, please explain what a double feint is, because I can't seem to find any reference to it online in a military concept, only as a soccer play or fencing move. Now, it's of course possible there is an analogous military ruse, but if there was such a thing I would expect you to use it's proper name, given that you possess enough understanding of military tactics to determine the attack on Kyiv was a ruse based on the local terrain and force disposition.

There was also every indication Russia was employing encrypted radios and satellite uplinks, from photos, and the tendency of Ukraine to claim they killed a General only for them to show back up alive later.

Which Generals were claimed dead and then showed up alive?

Russia also deployed large numbers of decoys, including inflatable trucks to create the infamous convoy which they moved around with a mixture of real trucks.

I can find no evidence of that online, if any of those trucks turned out to just inflatable decoys there should be mention of that somewhere.

Furthermore, while Russia does have inflatable decoy vehicles, they don't seem to have one that matches the design of the ones in the convey, nor do they appear to have the thousands of them that would be needed for this.

Oh and remember all those UkA commandoes in the first 2 weeks posting tiktoks? Disappeared after 2 weeks because they were essentially light infantry up against roving mechanized kill teams that fixed them in place and pounded them.

Again, I can find nothing outside of your say-say to verify that.

Note the Russians easily broke contact and withdrew in good order and entrained to Donbass and Kharkiv Front where they are once again in combat, without the UkA being aware of it or able to pursue.

Everything I've seen, such as this video says otherwise:


The Russia forces at Kyiv withdrew, under pressure and having taken significant loses, and everyone knows exactly where they are and where they're going.

Now, that could be wrong, but as your evidence for it "I say so", I don't think I am.

They were able to do that because the UkA lost the bulk of its AFVs and artillery, the majority of their fuel, an the bulk of their ammo. Their commandoes suffered unsustainable causalities attacking Russian Convoys, and civilian insurgents got shredded. Now the UkA in the north is a largely immobile force with technicals, an odd AFV or two, and little artillery that has little ability to move during the day and at the mercy of Russian Night Aviation if they travel in too large of a convoy. They are thus unable to help in any way with regards to the south.

Russia on the other hand can move freely during the day, and pound all day and night with artillery without having to worry about counterfires or CAS very much. With is a massive firepower advantage the Ukrainians can't counter.

Again, I can't find anything to confirm a single word of this as being anything but more of your fanfiction, and what I can find says the exact opposite, such as the previously posted video, which says Ukraine's air defenses are still functional (albeit outmatched) and inflicting heavy losses on Russia aircraft.

I'm particularly curious why you think night or daytime movement matter one bit when it comes to air attack, as modern aircraft and air defense systems function perfectly well in the dark or the day, if Russian airpower is able to interdict daytime movements to the extant you claim, they should be able to do the same at night.

Also the final clue about Kyiv not being the focus is Russia simply not having set up collaborators or sent the victory flags to V and O groups.

It's rather hard to set up collaborators and victory flags in a city you failed to take.

Troops in the North were allowed to loot unlike in the south where it would be bad for business.

Having soldiers loot from civilians is not only illegal in general, it is specifically an outright internationally recognized war crime. That you are saying the Russian allowed their men to do that in some areas as a matter of policy again suggest you don't know what you're talking about, as no decent professional army would do that (yeah, looting will inevitably happen anyway, but there's a difference between it happening despite your best efforts and specifically encouraging it).

Additionally, I can't find anything to suggest that Russian military looting or other war crimes are localized the way you claim.
 

Chiron

Well-known member
Armchair Warlord explains how new drones will not save Ukraine.







Quoting the rest as its a big topic.

So this isn't just something that's going to be vulnerable to the full range of electronic warfare and air defense weapons, it's something that's actually slow enough to potentially shoot down with small arms after it appears overhead.

As such I think the main beneficiary of this Switchblade transfer will be AeroVironment shareholders.

Addendum: someone mentioned that loitering munitions obviate the need to have friendly artillery on standby. Which is true (to an extent, a Switchblade 600 is 50lbs), but you'll be creating an electronic signature that ELINT Ray Charles could trace back to you while using them.

Summary, stick to spotter drones, more bang per buck, and less chance you'll be backtracked and pasted. I'm going to see if he won't join our friendly neighborhood.

The fights between him and Zachowon will be epic for sure, the Mods may have to take away the digital booze and up the digital insurance, but it will all be worth it comrades. ;)
 

planefag

A Flying Bundle of Sticks
A retired US Army Artilleryman explains the reality of a Russian BTG and how it works. He is posting regular threads now, getting years of frustrations with S2s, failed generals, and utter US Military Incompetence being swept under the rug, off his chest. He very much despises the @Zachowon types.

Wow I'm so glad we have this asshole on hand to tell us what everybody already fucking knows. HAY GUIES DID U KNEW THAT SOVIET ARMIES R ARTILLERY CENTRIC OMG! Only part he missed is that BTGs exist because one battalion in every regiment of the Russian army is made up of conscripts, (which can't be deployed) so they just deploy the other two battalions and give them the regiment's artillery assets + the division level support assets. Which sounds really cool and badass because you have so many guns, until you realize you don't have enough infantry to perform even the most basic rear-area security lmao

Armchair Warlord explains how new drones will not save Ukraine.

"ACKHSUALLY A HUNDRED AND TEN LOITERING MUNITIONS BEING PROVIDED FOR SOF OPS ISN'T GOING TO BE A GAME CHANGHURRRR"

wow, no shit, thank you Twitter Mans for your scintillating insight
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Armchair Warlord explains how new drones will not save Ukraine.







Quoting the rest as its a big topic.



Summary, stick to spotter drones, more bang per buck, and less chance you'll be backtracked and pasted. I'm going to see if he won't join our friendly neighborhood.

The fights between him and Zachowon will be epic for sure, the Mods may have to take away the digital booze and up the digital insurance, but it will all be worth it comrades. ;)

I mean he has little to no idea of how things are actually going on and his whole thing is "Obviously" this and "Obviously" that without looking at the actual capabilities of what is invovled and the tactics trained by those employing them.

He also doesn't understand what all the things about how one counters drones either.
Wow I'm so glad we have this asshole on hand to tell us what everybody already fucking knows. HAY GUIES DID U KNEW THAT SOVIET ARMIES R ARTILLERY CENTRIC OMG! Only part he missed is that BTGs exist because one battalion in every regiment of the Russian army is made up of conscripts, (which can't be deployed) so they just deploy the other two battalions and give them the regiment's artillery assets + the division level support assets. Which sounds really cool and badass because you have so many guns, until you realize you don't have enough infantry to perform even the most basic rear-area security lmao



"ACKHSUALLY A HUNDRED AND TEN LOITERING MUNITIONS BEING PROVIDED FOR SOF OPS ISN'T GOING TO BE A GAME CHANGHURRRR"

wow, no shit, thank you Twitter Mans for your scintillating insight
And we'll these points.
He isn't wrong but he is literally just stating the obvious.
His whole take is "See this is what they are doing and why the Ukr is losing" when he us just saying standard knowledge.

But yeah. A lot of stuff he is saying is standard knowledge. Other stuff is just him being an artilleryman and not knowing the other things about Russian doctrine and how useless they seemed to do it here against a non purley conventional fight.

Should have taken from the NATO playbook
 

planefag

A Flying Bundle of Sticks
He isn't wrong but he is literally just stating the obvious.

Oh no, he's fuckin wrong, as well. Stupid bastard has never heard of a Low Probability of Intercept communication channel, (note that prefix is being tacked onto radars and a whole bunch of other emitter tech the US makes because we're the best in the fucking world at this shit.) And I bet this same shithead simps for Russia with "bUt mY dEcoY tranSmiTtErS I wIlL sIMpLy FoOl tHe hArM wItH a MicRowAve oVen" but of course nobody else can do that, right? Plus this fuckwit is comparing Ukrainian tactics with COTS shit to a hardened, encrypted military communication system. Guy clearly has no fucking clue how modern aerospace communications function, either. How does he think the F-35 keeps its datalinks ~oh so stealthy?~ He's never heard of AESA beam-forming, directional communications and mesh networks? The missile does know where it is at all times, you see, and also where it was, so it knows where to aim its pencil beam. So even if the ground control station loses track of where it is, the drone can tell it. Very useful for burning through jamming, as well. Does he think weapon engineers just ignored the last twenty fucking years of developments? They're in the business of selling weapons. Fucking things need to work.

But what really makes me laugh is, he's comparing a munition to a drone. As if having a single-man portable weapon that can fly forty kilometres, locate a hostile artillery battery, and nail their ammo dump isn't a big fucking deal. Toppest keks.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Oh no, he's fuckin wrong, as well. Stupid bastard has never heard of a Low Probability of Intercept communication channel, (note that prefix is being tacked onto radars and a whole bunch of other emitter tech the US makes because we're the best in the fucking world at this shit.) And I bet this same shithead simps for Russia with "bUt mY dEcoY tranSmiTtErS I wIlL sIMpLy FoOl tHe hArM wItH a MicRowAve oVen" but of course nobody else can do that, right? Plus this fuckwit is comparing Ukrainian tactics with COTS shit to a hardened, encrypted military communication system. Guy clearly has no fucking clue how modern aerospace communications function, either. How does he think the F-35 keeps its datalinks ~oh so stealthy?~ He's never heard of AESA beam-forming, directional communications and mesh networks? The missile does know where it is at all times, you see, and also where it was, so it knows where to aim its pencil beam. So even if the ground control station loses track of where it is, the drone can tell it. Very useful for burning through jamming, as well. Does he think weapon engineers just ignored the last twenty fucking years of developments? They're in the business of selling weapons. Fucking things need to work.

But what really makes me laugh is, he's comparing a munition to a drone. As if having a single-man portable weapon that can fly forty kilometres, locate a hostile artillery battery, and nail their ammo dump isn't a big fucking deal. Toppest keks.
I meant more for his artillery thing.
The drone thing he knows nothing.

And I know what we have capabilities wise as the US. The Russians claim to have such super strong things that are untested or only a little bit.

So yeah I don't think he knows jack shot about Drones.
Since you don't really track drones by where they launch from
 

bintananth

behind a desk
The missile does know where it is at all times, you see, and also where it was, so it knows where to aim its pencil beam.
Someone once told me that a US cruise missle, even when jammed, knows exactly where it is by calculating and ruling out everywhere where it can't possibly be.
 

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
According to him the idea is to fragment the enemy army, pin parts of it and destroy it piece by piece.
What a cunning ploy on the part of the Ukrainians to do this to the Russian invaders to such great and evident success as proven by the facts on the ground.
If Zachowon can't be bothered to read publications on the Soviet Based Doctrine the US Army made in the late 80s, that is on him.
Bluntly, Russia 2022 is not capable of carrying out the doctrine of USSR 1982.
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
What a cunning ploy on the part of the Ukrainians to do this to the Russian invaders to such great and evident success as proven by the facts on the ground.

Bluntly, Russia 2022 is not capable of carrying out the doctrine of USSR 1982.
Shoot they can't even carry out the Russian Combat Doctrine of 1782. Even the Chair Force is laughing at them.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
What a cunning ploy on the part of the Ukrainians to do this to the Russian invaders to such great and evident success as proven by the facts on the ground.
Keep guzzling the Elenski-brand kool aid.

Bluntly, Russia 2022 is not capable of carrying out the doctrine of USSR 1982.

Doctrine

Definitions

from The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, 5th Edition.

  • A principle or body of principles presented for acceptance or belief, as by a religious, political, scientific, or philosophic group; dogma.
  • A rule or principle of law, especially when established by precedent.
  • A statement of official government policy, especially in foreign affairs and military strategy.
  • Archaic Something taught; a teaching.
from The Century Dictionary.

  • In general, whatever is taught; whatever is laid down as true by an instructor or master; hence, a principle or body of principles relating to or connected with religion, science, politics, or any department of knowledge; anything held as true; a tenet or set of tenets: as, the doctrines of the gospel; the doctrines of Plato; the doctrine of evolution.
  • The act of teaching; instruction; course of discipline; specifically, instruction and confirmation in the principles of religion.
  • Synonyms Precept, Doctrine, Dogma, Tenet. Precept is a rule of conduct, generally of some exactness, laid down by some competent or authoritative person, and to be obeyed; it differs from the others in not being especially a matter of belief. (See .) Doctrine is the only other of these words referring to conduct, and in that meaning it is biblical and obsolescent. In the Bible it refers equally to teaching as to the abstract truths and as to the duties of religion: “In vain they do worship me, teaching for doctrines the commandments of men.” (Mat. xv. 9.) As distinguished from . and tenet, doctrine is a thing taught by an individual, a school, a sect, etc., while a dogma is a specific doctrine formulated as the position of some school, sect, etc., and pressed for acceptance as important or essential. Dogma is falling into disrepute as the word for an opinion which one is expected to accept on pure authority and without investigation. Tenet is a belief viewed as held, a doctrinal position taken and defended. It is equally applicable to the beliefs of an individual and of a number; it has no unfavorable sense.

You want to argue with the dictionary, now?
Doctrine is the way you organize combat operations and purchase and combine weapons systems.
There is nothing in it regarding total army size.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
No.
Go snort Elenski copium somewhere else and provide a real example why their doctrine is not working, given their stated objectives and timeframe.
Yeah, remember that they planned to be finished with the special operation by early march? And now it's a month after that. They've also clearly failed in their stated goal of demilitarisation of the Ukraine, since they're still fighting with no sign of quitting soon.

So, I'll say again: Ukraine. They're failing in their stated goal and time frame.

-Snip-
I was clear from the beginning that Kyiv was a double feint, it was quite obvious just from the Terrain and the forces allocated to it vs the South.
-Snip-
More bull shit. Less blatant than your self contradiction on Odessa, but this:
Russian Doctrine is for VDV to seize critical terrain ahead of the main thrust. They did exactly that and it drew Ukrainian Forces out of the Capital and into the open to retake it. It was in effect a double feint. If the Ukrainians didn't contest it, the VDV would have been reinforced and expanded the perimeter. If they did, they would hunker down and be an anvil to the Tank Divisions' hammer. Either way it would serve the Russian needs.
Certainly doesn't sound like you were saying the entire attack on Kyiv was a feint. Since, ya know you talk about a follow up main attack, and how the tank divisions will hammer them. Which, I guess they might have if they didn't all run out of fuel. And drop the dumb crap about being decoys, their movement was tracked, they were seen up close by the Ukrainian forces, and several blew up in a distinctly un-decoy like way.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Yeah, remember that they planned to be finished with the special operation by early march? And now it's a month after that. They've also clearly failed in their stated goal of demilitarisation of the Ukraine, since they're still fighting with no sign of quitting soon.
First off, I already told you when you decided to try cope by mentioning me so as to gloating when my initial comments didn't pan out, that I was neither all that interested in the conflict or have any military background, my assumption was that they would reinforce the beachhead near Kiev and use mass artillery and airstrikes to destroy all resistance and decapitate the Ukrainian leadership.
You know, like Americans.

However, in light of new data, the Russians are planning to go at a slower, more comfortable pace, and your beloved Clown Of Kiev and his thugs and nazi larpers and your precious Western Alliance, can not anything about it but writhe.
The Ukrainians have lost most of their tanks, UAVs, aircraft, AA and artillery.
Their best front-line army is besieged and getting the noose tightening around its neck.
Desertions are growing.
And their key war infrastructure is going up in smoke.

Now go cope and flail somewhere else, pathetic loser.
 

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