• The Sietch will be brought offline for HPG systems maintenance tomorrow (Thursday, 2 May 2024). Please remain calm and do not start any interstellar wars while ComStar is busy. May the Peace of Blake be with you. Precentor Dune

Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Yet they are still surviving and taking apart the Ukrainian military. Current sanctions aren't biting nearly as hard and in fact it seems like they might blow back on the US quite a bit harder than Russia. China is gaining like crazy from all of this while the US looks weaker and more foolish than any time since the Iraq war. Time will tell how this all plays out, but you're looking at this like it's a game a checkers, not 5D long term chess.
Pre-2014 Russia was a net importer of food, now they are a major exporter of it.
They also got account, along with Belarus, for 40% of potash production, and we have discussed the energy situation in detail.
Oh, and let us not forget that they got Kazakhstan back in their orbit, which is the world's largest Uranium producer.
After the first round of sanctions, they fortified their economy against further sanctions.

  1. Russia: US$7.9 billion (17.6% of total wheat exports)
  2. United States: $6.32 billion (14.1%)
  3. Canada: $6.3 billion (14%)
  4. France: $4.5 billion (10.1%)
  5. Ukraine: $3.6 billion (8%)
  6. Australia: $2.7 billion (6%)
  7. Argentina: $2.12 billion (4.7%)
  8. Germany: $2.1 billion (4.7%)
  9. Kazakhstan: $1.1 billion (2.5%)
  10. Poland: $1 billion (2.3%)
  11. Romania: $948.8 million (2.1%)
  12. Lithuania: $910.7 million (2%)
  13. Bulgaria: $699.2 million (1.6%)
  14. Latvia: $649.2 million (1.4%)
  15. Hungary: $630.6 million (1.4%)
 
Last edited:

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Pre-2014 Russia was a net importer of food, now they are a major exporter of it.
They also got account, along with Belarus, for 40% of potash production, and we have discussed the energy situation in detail.
Oh, and let us not forget that they got Kazakhstan back in their orbit, which is the world's largest Uranium producer.
After the first round of sanctions, they fortified their economy against further sanctions.
Dhow us who buys thier food
 

Firebat

Well-known member
That's largely because corrupt oligarchs have run the country into the ground. Profits have been extracted by 'investors'. Much like Mexico and the US now. Same shit happened with Russia, though it has improved somewhat since Putin took over.
No, it's largely because there isn't much you can do in Ukraine that can be competitive on the world market. The workforce is neither all that cheap or all that great, infrastructure is nothing to write home about, and agriculture&resource extraction... well, those have gotten Ukraine just below Albania.
I doubt the damage inflicted on civilian infrastructure would amount to billions, the Russians aren't fighting like the US has.
Even if so there are many more billions if not trillions of wealth available in the coming years from their resources and population. There hasn't been any complaints coming out of Crimea since the Russians took over and the Donbass states really don't seem to want to return to Ukraine either.
I for one have no doubt that the damage will amount to billions. Russian media report Russian Airforce knocking out one fuel terminal after another, bridges get blown up, houses get destroyed or damaged.
And we don't live in 15th century, sending army overseas and robbing people is no longer profitable. Plus as previously mentioned, Ukraine is poor and not getting richer. Ukrainian state is basically broke and has to constantly loan giant sums of money to keep itself afloat. The government can not extract wealth that isn't there. I don't see why some hypothetical post-war administration would fare any better in much poorer Ukraine. The country is not going to be a donor region for Russia, just like Belarus isn't.

As for Crimea and Donbass, Crimea has received massive checks from Russian government to keep it afloat. It is by no means a profitable part of Russian fiscal map. Donbass is controlled by glorified warlords and people who oppose them suffer from bad luck. Neither approach is feasible or profitable on the scale of entire Ukraine.
Russia has been subjected to serious sanctions, it will take time to recover and redirect supply chains to the East.
Russia has not recovered from post-Crimean sanctions. Redirecting supply chains to the East did not work out.
Why would this time be any different?
Yet they are still surviving and taking apart the Ukrainian military. Current sanctions aren't biting nearly as hard
You are talking like taking apart Ukrainian military is some high water mark of military ability. Of course they are taking apart Ukrainian military, Ukraine can't even contest its airspace. Although given the disparity of military budgets, one would expect more progress in more than a month.
Or more foresight than trying to invade Ukraine with only 100.000 soldiers.

As for the bite of current sanctions, it took previous round of sanctions one-two years to take full effect.
 

Vaermina

Well-known member
Pre-2014 Russia was a net importer of food, now they are a major exporter of it.
They also got account, along with Belarus, for 40% of potash production, and we have discussed the energy situation in detail.
Oh, and let us not forget that they got Kazakhstan back in their orbit, which is the world's largest Uranium producer.
After the first round of sanctions, they fortified their economy against further sanctions.
Actually Russia is still a net importer of food.

 

Abhorsen

Local Degenerate
Moderator
Staff Member
Comrade
Osaul
You know that how?
Your TL is way off BTW. The Uyghur repressions started ~2014 and the US conquered Afghanistan in 2002. So plenty of time to fund resistance activities out of Afghanistan.
Which part, the mass rapes? Chinese leaked documents, interviews, etc. The other things? Well, China clearly isn't destabilizing at all from the crackdown nor would anyone think it would; and the Uyghur population is from Wikipedia.

You're the person making a crazy claim here, which not even the Chinese claimed at the time. You need evidence here. Along explanations for all the other problems I pointed out.

Again you're missing the entire point, the US did exactly the same thing with Iraq and normalized this behavior. The Russians have done nothing that the US hasn't done first in the 21st century. The Iraq invasion was against the UN resolutions. How is what Putin is doing any different?
The difference is that he's getting backlash, that's the difference. The US didn't have real international backlash, Russia did. The difference between the two is that the US has a lot of banked goodwill, economic power, military might and other levers. Russia doesn't. So Russia literally can't afford to do this: they don't have the money.
What copium are you huffing?
Copium? It's called realpolitik: you're the one whining "It's not fair that Russia can't get away with same stuff the US does", I'm the one pointing out that geopolitics isn't fair and never will be, so stop trying to win points by saying "but they got away with it".

It started out defensive in nature, but then we stayed for two decades and sent our people over there to die for absolutely no reason.
Oh, definitely, after Osama (at the longest), there was no reason to be there. I'm just saying that the initial invasion was fine.

He only absorbed Crimea; and the fact that he didn't also absorb the Donbass region is why I think it's possible he might go the route of creating a puppet state in Ukraine.
My guess is that he goes a combo: extend Donbass so that it stretches to Crimea giving him a land bridge to it. Then either absorb it or make them acknowledge it's independant, and hopefully get a puppet too.

The United States military couldn't conquer a ham sandwich at this point, even if you gave them a millennia to do it; we may have the equipment and the training, but our leadership is complete garbage, as the Afghanistan withdrawal clearly illustrated. Also the sanctions don't seem to be hurting Russia nearly as much as people are insisting they are; their recent move to demand payment in Rubles for their natural gas has apparently undone much of the damage.
BWAHAHAHA, no. The US could conquer any non-nuclear country we wanted (and if nukes disappeared tomorrow, any country, with us taking some losses from China, but we'd still win). We absolutely could, it'd be a matter months, with maybe a month for the invasion itself. Seriously, the big problem is just moving the troops to occupy the bombed out husks after we wreck everything.

The whole problem in Afghanistan and Iraq wasn't the invasion: it was holding it. That is beyond us or anyone else, 100%. But an invasion? Shit, we can invade anywhere we want, with a fairly simple strategy: 1) cruise missile/bomb their SAM and air capabilities, and also their ships. Any of our carrier groups can do this to nearly any country, maybe some will require 2-3. All that's left afterwards is their mobile SAM. I'm certain we have stuff that targets that (Russia does too, just not enough). Then with air superiority, any big group of troops is just a target. The rest falls from there.

America is stupid powerful militarily (like the second most, the problem is just the political leadership. The military warned Biden to prep for evacuation, he didn't.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
BWAHAHAHA, no. The US could conquer any non-nuclear country we wanted (and if nukes disappeared tomorrow, any country, with us taking some losses from China, but we'd still win). We absolutely could, it'd be a matter months, with maybe a month for the invasion itself. Seriously, the big problem is just moving the troops to occupy the bombed out husks after we wreck everything.

The whole problem in Afghanistan and Iraq wasn't the invasion: it was holding it. That is beyond us or anyone else, 100%. But an invasion? Shit, we can invade anywhere we want, with a fairly simple strategy: 1) cruise missile/bomb their SAM and air capabilities, and also their ships. Any of our carrier groups can do this to nearly any country, maybe some will require 2-3. All that's left afterwards is their mobile SAM. I'm certain we have stuff that targets that (Russia does too, just not enough). Then with air superiority, any big group of troops is just a target. The rest falls from there.

America is stupid powerful militarily (like the second most, the problem is just the political leadership. The military warned Biden to prep for evacuation, he didn't.
Never underestimate the impact of incompetent or duplicitous leadership. History is replete with the corpses of countries that fell thanks to that alone, in spite of the great might they commanded.
 

JagerIV

Well-known member
What are the current estimates for Ukrainian military casualties? I've seen the Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, and the Russian estimates of Ukrainian casualties, but I'm not sure I've seen one from Ukraine or Ukraine aligned sources.
 

SchrodingersWehraboo

Well-known member
Ukrainian Hohol punisher skull patch captured by the Russians. Then again, Russian soldiers have Punisher Skull cancer patches too.

27-DEC719-C4-B7-4-E0-A-B792-D54-F3617-A401.jpg
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
So after catching up to various news for the situation in Ukraine because I got distracted by the beauty of SLBM videos, it would seem that Mariupol is being mopped up, Sumy is exceedingly contested, Kharkiv is being shelled, Mykolaiv situation is very unclear, DPR/LPR front is a very hectic event and finally the Northern Front is most unclear of all. Do you people have other updates? News in my country about Ukraine is drying up due to upcoming elections.


Great, are we on the "moderate rebels" stage based on twitter responses?:cautious:


Where did they acquire such fine ass?:ROFLMAO:
I am on the stage of"I pray every Zelenski cheerleader, state department official involved in this since the 2014 putch and US chickenhawk dies a slow and agonizing death." :ROFLMAO:
 

Chiron

Well-known member


Europeans are already out in the streets, now lets just watch the EU Governments fall.





A general UkA claimed to have killed is alive and well.





Russia continues to operate drones freely over UkA airspace. It also continues to launch 300 sorties a day from fixed wing aircraft. That is vastly larger than the average daily sortie rates flown in Operation Inherent Resolve which averaged 36.76 sorties a day. Considering that is 60,288 sorties over a period of 4 and a half years, and little over half of these sorties actually deployed a weapon: 30,984. All the expert prattling about ineffective and anemic air support is nonsense as is much of their prattle.
 

Battlegrinder

Someday we will win, no matter what it takes.
Moderator
Staff Member
Founder
Obozny
Europeans are already out in the streets, now lets just watch the EU Governments fall.

Maybe confine your unrealistic fantasies to the realm of outlandish but still possible. Things like "other countries respect the russian military enough to at least pretend to fear it", "Russian is able to maintain a double digit ratio of tanks are lost to enemy actions vs tanks stolen by rednecks with tractors", "people openly admit the Ghost of Kyiv isn't real and don't continue to claim otherwise just to get under your skin", etc.

Russia continues to operate drones freely over UkA airspace. It also continues to launch 300 sorties a day from fixed wing aircraft. That is vastly larger than the average daily sortie rates flown in Operation Inherent Resolve which averaged 36.76 sorties a day.

Presuming that's true, which with you and you track record I do not, all that proves is that a higher operational tempo is needed to fight a war against a peer opponent vs a bunch of dudes in technicals. Which seems self evident.

Considering that is 60,288 sorties over a period of 4 and a half years, and little over half of these sorties actually deployed a weapon: 30,984. All the expert prattling about ineffective and anemic air support is nonsense as is much of their prattle.

People aren't saying the russia air support is ineffective because they're not spending enough time in the air. They're saying it's ineffective because if NATO was doing this the war would be over by now.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top