Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

[WolfBear]

Question: If Russia will ever subsequently experience regime change and then apply to join the EU, how exactly will the EU deal with Russia's Chechen problem? Will Chechya be allowed to secede from Russia? Because I'm not sure that EU countries would actually be very eager to have open borders with Chechens.

 

[Marduk]

Question: If Russia will ever subsequently experience regime change and then apply to join the EU, how exactly will the EU deal with Russia's Chechen problem? Will Chechya be allowed to secede from Russia? Because I'm not sure that EU countries would actually be very eager to have open borders with Chechens.

Obviously all the answers depend completely on "regime change to what".
Also do not underestimate the stupidity of the EU, with inviting migrants from Iraq, Pakistan and even Afghanistan, Chechens can't be worse than that.

 

[WolfBear]

Obviously all the answers depend completely on "regime change to what".
Also do not underestimate the stupidity of the EU, with inviting migrants from Iraq, Pakistan and even Afghanistan, Chechens can't be worst than that.

Regime change to a regime similar to what you guys currently have in Poland, or to Viktor Orban's Hungary, for that matter. Or to Netanyahu's Israel (or even post-Netanyahu Israel).

And Yeah, fair point, though the EU has become more hostile towards migrants as of late. This is why Poland's recent aggressive tactics towards migrants on its Belarusian border haven't been met with much criticism from other EU leaders. Interestingly enough, if Lukashenko cares about these migrants so much, then he can give them permanent residency in Belarus. But of course that would betray the slogan of "Belarus for Belarusians"!

 

[Marduk]

Regime change to a regime similar to what you guys currently have in Poland, or to Viktor Orban's Hungary, for that matter. Or to Netanyahu's Israel (or even post-Netanyahu Israel).

Unlikely, and the EU of today would be very reluctant to let them in as such too.
Assuming they don't just let them secede and build a wall on followup, the EU talks would probably get stuck over what happens there, among a dozen or so other issues.

And Yeah, fair point, though the EU has become more hostile towards migrants as of late. This is why Poland's recent aggressive tactics towards migrants on its Belarusian border haven't been met with much criticism from other EU leaders. Interestingly enough, if Lukashenko cares about these migrants so much, then he can give them permanent residency in Belarus. But of course that would betray the slogan of "Belarus for Belarusians"!

You don't know the half of it. The EU shuts up because they know that neither Poland nor the migrants want a situation in which the migrants stay in Poland, so even if Poland wouldn't have the guts to take then nuclear option of just waving them along, the EU knows that it's there, and the more they complain the more tempting it gets.
As for Lukashenko, give? Dude, he is in fact charging them pretty nice money to fly them to Belarus, on state owned airlines at that. The whole point of it is to annoy the EU and make some money on the side.

 

[WolfBear]

Unlikely, and the EU of today would be very reluctant to let them in as such.
Assuming they don't just let them secede and build a wall on followup, the EU talks would probably get stuck over what happens there, among a dozen or so other issues.

You don't know the half of it. The EU shuts up because they know that neither Poland nor the migrants want a situation in which the migrants stay in Poland, so even if Poland wouldn't have the guts to take then nuclear option of just waving them along, the EU knows that it's there, and the more they complain the more tempting it gets.
As for Lukashenko, give? Dude, he is in fact charging them pretty nice money to fly them to Belarus, on state owned airlines at that. The whole point of it is to annoy the EU and make some money on the side.

Over what happens where?

And Yeah, the EU countries certainly don't want to get flooded with Muslim migrants who came through Belarus and Poland. No doubt about that. And to be honest, Poland doesn't want them temporarily sticking around in Poland either and having the bad apples among them rape and assault Polish women. Poland already had enough of that when Simon Mol infected a couple dozen gullible liberal Polish women with HIV a while back:

Simon Mol - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(He told his Polish female sexual partners that it was racist to expect him to wear a condom since that would simply confirm the stereotype that all black men have HIV/AIDS. But in his case, this stereotype was actually accurate!)

And Yeah, Lukashenko is certainly an extremely brutal pimp, unfortunately. He also rigged the 2020 election in Belarus, so clearly he only plays by his own rules and no one else's.

 

[Marduk]

Over what happens where?

In Chechnya - either they get brutally suppressed, or they rule themselves their own way, which would also be a form of brutal suppression, and either way its something that will offend the prevailing sensibilities in Brussels.

And Yeah, the EU countries certainly don't want to get flooded with Muslim migrants who came through Belarus and Poland. No doubt about that. And to be honest, Poland doesn't want them temporarily sticking around in Poland either and having the bad apples among them rape and assault Polish women. Poland already had enough of that when Simon Mol infected a couple dozen gullible liberal Polish women with HIV a while back:

Simon Mol - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

(He told his Polish female sexual partners that it was racist to expect him to wear a condom since that would simply confirm the stereotype that all black men have HIV/AIDS. But in his case, this stereotype was actually accurate!)

And Yeah, Lukashenko is certainly an extremely brutal pimp, unfortunately. He also rigged the 2020 election in Belarus, so clearly he only plays by his own rules and no one else's.

I know, that was a huge story in Poland... Over a decade ago.

 

[WolfBear]

In Chechnya - either they get brutally suppressed, or they rule themselves their own way, which would also be a form of brutal suppression, and either way its something that will offend the prevailing sensibilities in Brussels.

I know, that was a huge story in Poland... Over a decade ago.

So, let Chechnya go? Because, Yeah, as you said, what happens in Chechnya will certainly not suit EU sensibilities.

Yep.

 

[Megadeath]

-Snip-
intended only for a specific western audience of isolationists, leftists and pacifists who would never let a "West bad and bloodthirsty" story go unswallowed.
-Snip-

Yay! I guess I'm no longer a leftist! Or... Maybe politics is more complicated than a single simple binary choice, and reducing it to one produces a counter productive, divisive and false dichotomy?

 

[Marduk]

So, let Chechnya go? Because, Yeah, as you said, what happens in Chechnya will certainly not suit EU sensibilities.

Yep.

Congratulations, you have arrived at the same conclusion Russia's liberals did over 2 decades ago, even without any EU related questions mixed into it.

The Road to peace in Chechnya: A Russian Liberal's Perspective - Russian Federation

Analysis in English on Russian Federation; published on 21 Nov 1999 by Andrei Sakharov

reliefweb.int

Yay! I guess I'm no longer a leftist! Or... Maybe politics is more complicated than a single simple binary choice, and reducing it to one produces a counter productive, divisive and false dichotomy?

There is a whole segment of leftists more angry at Russia for not being progressive liberal than at the old classic of muh western imperialism.

 

[Megadeath]

-Snip-
There is a whole segment of leftists more angry at Russia for not being progressive liberal than at the old classic of muh western imperialism.

May well be that there are. Though, that would contradict your claim that leftists "never let a 'West bad and bloodthirsty' story go unswallowed." Further, do you think that kind of motivation fits me? I'm pretty sure I've made clear my belief that the idea of western aggression is nonsense.

 

[WolfBear]

Congratulations, you have arrived at the same conclusion Russia's liberals did over 2 decades ago, even without any EU related questions mixed into it.

The Road to peace in Chechnya: A Russian Liberal's Perspective - Russian Federation

Analysis in English on Russian Federation; published on 21 Nov 1999 by Andrei Sakharov

reliefweb.int

There is a whole segment of leftists more angry at Russia for not being progressive liberal than at the old classic of muh western imperialism.

Yeah, too bad that Russia's government valued its own territorial integrity too much. Though TBF, I don't think that an independent Chechnya would actually be a decent place to live in. Ditto for an independent Kashmir, very possibly. Too much radical Islamist influence, unfortunately.

You mean due to Russian homophobia? Because it's much worse in Uganda than it is in Russia.

 

[Marduk]

May well be that there are. Though, that would contradict your claim that leftists "never let a 'West bad and bloodthirsty' story go unswallowed."

Not with the other qualifiers...

Further, do you think that kind of motivation fits me? I'm pretty sure I've made clear my belief that the idea of western aggression is nonsense.

I'm not a telepath.

Yeah, too bad that Russia's government valued its own territorial integrity too much. Though TBF, I don't think that an independent Chechnya would actually be a decent place to live in.

From Russia's perspective, the bonus would be that it would no longer be their problem.

You mean due to Russian homophobia? Because it's much worse in Uganda than it is in Russia.

Among other things.

 

[WolfBear]

Among other things.

Which ones? The murders of Russian journalists?

 

[Marduk]

Which ones? The murders of Russian journalists?

That too. General corruption. Funny games around climate policy, other funny games involving spies, treatment of other, less islamic ethnic minorities, and so on.

 

[Sailor.X]

Yeah, too bad that Russia's government valued its own territorial integrity too much. Though TBF, I don't think that an independent Chechnya would actually be a decent place to live in. Ditto for an independent Kashmir, very possibly. Too much radical Islamist influence, unfortunately.

You mean due to Russian homophobia? Because it's much worse in Uganda than it is in Russia.

Not with the other qualifiers...

I'm not a telepath.

From Russia's perspective, the bonus would be that it would no longer be their problem.

Among other things.

Instead of throwing you off the roof of a building like in Uganda. Russia just sends you away to Siberia to die in prison on Arctic Tundra........... Yeah way better.

 

[History Learner]

Everyone, take correction that this conviction is coming from the "great" mind who not only thinks that the West didn't win the arms race against the Soviet Union, he also thinks that that the arms race had nothing to do with the Soviet Union collapsing, and if that wasn't eyebrow raising enough, he is also convinced that this is the consensus of historians and economists.
As such, any predictions of his just mean that the opposite is more likely to happen than not, as he apparently resides in the oppositeworld. He does however like to invent very simple numerical comparisons about things he doesn't understand and pretend that it constitutes quality military analysis, as demonstrated in the later post.

Living in your head rent free. Cope and seethe harder, dear.

 

[History Learner]

Will they though? I mean, they've already encouraged two other countries to seek NATO membership, and they'll still have other NATO countries on their border. If they occupy Ukraine, it just changes where their effective border with NATO is, without actually changing how far NATO is from their forces. It's also hard to see how an extra couple hundred kilometres distance does more to improve their security than they've lost in combat power, from the impact of sanctions, the loss of soft power by forcing neighbours into greater energy independence, the heightened military spending they've encouraged in NATO countries, the increased eastern deployments of forces and general readiness levels, the information they've revealed about their operational capabilities and technical capabilities of vehicles, the internal dissent they've fermented and stoked...

Beyond the fact they've forced NATO to empty its store houses and are risking economic collapse while the Russian economy actually grew by about 3% in the first quarter of the year? The fact that occupying Ukraine will add about a buffer space about the size of Western Europe between their core economic regions and NATO forces.

I really don't see how any sane person could argue Russia and their government are more secure now than they were at the start of this year. Even more when we consider the vanishingly small probability of NATO military aggression against Russia.

In which case, Russia is definitely more secure if there's no probability of NATO aggression then?

 

[Marduk]

Living in your head rent free. Cope and seethe harder, dear.

My head? No, just the threads i frequent.

 

[Zachowon]

The Stalker 2 Game Development Team (largely based in Ukraine) posted a "Dev Diary" Video Update of what their devs and other employees have been up to since recent events occurred.



The most disturbing part of the video is how one of their Community Managers/Moderators is now a member of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Yep.
Dude wanted to defend his country

 

[History Learner]

My head? No, just the threads i frequent.

New term for personality disorder then, I see.