Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[Buba]

Akshually ... I expect no Japanese invasion. There is almost two years to the OTL date.
Everything will change.
E.g. different course of war in Europe, the reveal that FDR is a cripple (supressed by tame press of that time) and dropped dead immediately after his fourth win, info about Civil Rights movement, and I see the DNC tearing itself apart, let alone nominatiung FDR to run in '40.
The USA is not that upset about "losing" Phillippines - it was to drop it in five years or so anyway. Hence here the Phillippinos pay with UT tech for the US to station more warships and troops in it which - combined with the might of the UT Phillipino forces - will make Japan change its plans ...

 

[Zyobot]

I picked up that phrase from a fanfic. Cute, innit?

… Sure, sounds swell.

‘Calvin Coolidge Runs Again In 1928’.

 

[Agent23]

Zurgadai's arrow kills Genghis Khan.

 

[Zyobot]

'ATL 20th Century Superpowers'.

Note that this doesn't necessarily mean preventing every last OTL superpower from attaining that status IATL, though the roster should still look different here. (Based on previous discussions, a Nationalist China that won and a Tsarist Russia that liberalized would qualify for the title.)

Actually, I wonder if a luckier Imperial Germany might qualify for the list? Presuming we get a more stable, practical Kaiser than Wilhelm II in the driver's seat, anyway.

 

[History Learner]

… Sure, sounds swell.

‘Calvin Coolidge Runs Again In 1928’.

We get a Fascist or Communist USA.

 

[History Learner]

Actually, I wonder if a luckier Imperial Germany might qualify for the list? Presuming we get a more stable, practical Kaiser than Wilhelm II in the driver's seat, anyway.

Had Germany won World War I or World War II, it would've become the dominant superpower in the long run. Japan was likewise a serious contender by 1940.

 

[Doomsought]

We get a Fascist or Communist USA.

No, that is the historical Woodrow Wilson presidency.
Coolidge was the man who did the exact opposite.

 

[History Learner]

No, that is the historical Woodrow Wilson presidency.
Coolidge was the man who did the exact opposite.

Wilson was about as far from Communism or Fascism as you could get; nationalizing the railways doesn't make one either of the aforementioned lol. As for Coolidge, he'd follow a laiez faire policy and probably cave to Mellon's suggestions, with the end result being a much worse Depression which gives way to extremism of one variety or the other.

 

[WolfBear]

We get a Fascist or Communist USA.

How so?

Wilson was about as far from Communism or Fascism as you could get; nationalizing the railways doesn't make one either of the aforementioned lol. As for Coolidge, he'd follow a laiez faire policy and probably cave to Mellon's suggestions, with the end result being a much worse Depression which gives way to extremism of one variety or the other.

How much worse? Because 25% unemployment was already pretty damn high!

Had Germany won World War I or World War II, it would've become the dominate superpower in the long run. Japan was likewise a serious contender by 1940.

*Dominant (not dominate)

As for Japan, it simply didn't have the necessary population for this. Though I suppose that it would be easier if it will manage to permanently keep both Korea and Taiwan and properly assimilate these regions into a Greater Japanese Empire, with full citizenship and whatnot. In such a scenario, Greater Japan will have 200 million people.

 

[Agent23]

Had Germany won World War I or World War II, it would've become the dominant superpower in the long run. Japan was likewise a serious contender by 1940.

I doubt it, they'd still be surrounded by enemies and the USA had massively superior industrial capacity and better demographics, also two oceans and fairly docile neighbours as insulation.

Grim Economic Realities

www.combinedfleet.com

 

[Circle of Willis]

Zurgadai's arrow kills Genghis Khan.

Honestly, this is such a massive POD that it probably merits its own thread. Even in the short term there'd be tons of Mothra-sized butterflies: the Middle East and Central Asia aren't totally gutted by the Mongol invasions, Baghdad remains Islam's spiritual and cultural center for at least a while longer (although IIRC Ayyubid Egypt had eclipsed the Abbasids militarily for a while by then), Georgia's golden age similarly endures for some more time and probably plays a big role in the next few crusades, Poland is probably reunified early by Henry the Pious, etc.

In the longer term, maybe the Song or an even more innovative succeeding dynasty building off their foundation could kick off a slower but much earlier industrial revolution in China after recovering the north (which has the majority of China's coal mines) from the Jurchen. That'd certainly have huge effects on history going forward - just get them to avoid the neo-Confucian isolationist attitude of the later Ming, explore North America and colonize Alaska/the PNW/California well ahead of any Europeans, and you're probably looking at centuries of a Chinese-led world order.

 

[Doomsought]

Wilson was about as far from Communism or Fascism as you could get;

He is literally origin of fascist economic policy.

 

[Agent23]

He is literally origin of fascist economic policy.

Don't forget he was a massive fan of the KKK and created American liberal interventionism.
EmperorTIgerstar had a fun series on him:

 

[Zyobot]

'More Eastern European Immigration To US'.

 

[WolfBear]

'More Eastern European Immigration To US'.

Avoid WWI and thus delay the imposition of 1920s-style immigration restrictions in the US.

 

[WolfBear]

Actually, I wonder if a luckier Imperial Germany might qualify for the list? Presuming we get a more stable, practical Kaiser than Wilhelm II in the driver's seat, anyway.

Absolutely, though it would help if Germany acquired a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe for itself sooner or later.

'AHC: Have Israel both be created and survive, but avoid the extremely massive post-WWII emigration of Eastern European and Soviet Jewry, instead having these Jews and their descendants permanently remain in Eastern Europe and the (former) Soviet Union. And the Holocaust still has to occur on the same scale as in our TL for the purposes of this AHC'

YIVO | Population and Migration: Population since World War I

yivoencyclopedia.org

Tragically, as per Hitler's vision, Eastern Europe is rapidly becoming Judenrein and Judenfrei, but through mass emigration, intermarriage, assimilation, and low birth rates instead of through genocide like Hitler himself personally envisioned.

 

[WolfBear]

@Zyobot 'AHC: Have the Italian monarchy still be abolished, but without either Mussolini/Fascism or WWII'

 

[History Learner]

He is literally origin of fascist economic policy.

In what respect? Fascism can most obviously trace its roots to the French Radical scene of the late 19th and early 20th Century with the crossover between the Syndicalists and Nationalist groups like "Action France".

 

[WolfBear]

In what respect? Fascism can most obviously trace its roots to the French Radical scene of the late 19th and early 20th Century with the crossover between the Syndicalists and Nationalist groups like "Action France".

Somewhat off-topic, but if France loses WWI, what do you think is more likely, a restored monarchical France or a Syndicalist France?

 

[History Learner]

Somewhat off-topic, but if France loses WWI, what do you think is more likely, a restored monarchical France or a Syndicalist France?

Both, you'd probably see the Monarchy restored while National Syndicalists take over politically, sort of like Fascist Italy. There'd probably be a Civil War, but Berlin would make sure nothing would come of it.