Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[ATP]

Militarily not so much to anybody with a brain
But in morale terms - very much indeed. And interesting side effect - it were the underfed and bored and refusing to be used in a suicide attack German matrossen who revolted and brought down the Kaiserreich.

The big revolt was in Kiel, but had the Hochseeflotte been sunk in Wilhelmshaven, there would had been no fleet to sail to Kiel to begin with ...

Yes,german refusing suicidal attack was so...ungerman.It would be far more cool if they get sunked by combined british-american fleet.
And,if they fought longer on land and lost there,too,there would be no myth od stolen victory who lead to Hitler.

 

[WolfBear]

Militarily not so much to anybody with a brain
But in morale terms - very much indeed. And interesting side effect - it were the underfed and bored and refusing to be used in a suicide attack German matrossen who revolted and brought down the Kaiserreich.

The big revolt was in Kiel, but had the Hochseeflotte been sunk in Wilhelmshaven, there would had been no fleet to sail to Kiel to begin with ...

So, does this mean that the German monarchy actually has a chance of surviving? Or not so long as Wilson still demands its total abolition?

 

[WolfBear]

Yes,german refusing suicidal attack was so...ungerman.It would be far more cool if they get sunked by combined british-american fleet.
And,if they fought longer on land and lost there,too,there would be no myth od stolen victory who lead to Hitler.

An interesting thread on this topic from another forum, especially Sam-Nary's answer here:

What If Germany Fights On Until the End in World War I?

This might require some magic, but let's have some fun and go along with this: Let's say that the Imperial German Navy does not plan a suicidal battle with the British Navy in late 1918; thus, the German sailors at Kiel do not rebel. Meanwhile, Hindenburg and Ludendorff are somehow (by magic...

historum.com

 

[ATP]

An interesting thread on this topic from another forum, especially Sam-Nary's answer here:

What If Germany Fights On Until the End in World War I?

This might require some magic, but let's have some fun and go along with this: Let's say that the Imperial German Navy does not plan a suicidal battle with the British Navy in late 1918; thus, the German sailors at Kiel do not rebel. Meanwhile, Hindenburg and Ludendorff are somehow (by magic...

historum.com

I would add,then Allies would use mostly colonial troops to first break germans,and later occupy it.
And,if they were smart,they would let Bavaria,Saxony and other countries remain free - and occupy ONLY Prussia.

 

[stevep]

Militarily not so much to anybody with a brain
But in morale terms - very much indeed. And interesting side effect - it were the underfed and bored and refusing to be used in a suicide attack German matrossen who revolted and brought down the Kaiserreich.

The big revolt was in Kiel, but had the Hochseeflotte been sunk in Wilhelmshaven, there would had been no fleet to sail to Kiel to begin with ...

It definitely a clear military target and one important to both Britain and the US given the threat posed by both the surface fleet and now the U boats. A lot of civilians are likely to die as collateral damage but I think if their going to hit anywhere this is probably the target most likely to meet the needs of the allies.

The fleet mutiny helped trigger things but it was all falling apart by then. If they hadn't revolted by that time one of the other groups would have started the avalanche rolling.

One down side is that the revanchists in Germany are going to have even more excuse for their claim that they weren't clearly defeated on the battlefield. OTL they were but here its some magic weapon that's appeared that almost certain to prompt surrender.

Mind you I wonder would the Austrian empire survive this time around, albeit in a markedly smaller form?

 

[stevep]

I would add,then Allies would use mostly colonial troops to first break germans,and later occupy it.
And,if they were smart,they would let Bavaria,Saxony and other countries remain free - and occupy ONLY Prussia.

Not only that but there was a suggestion, from the young Konrad Adenauer, then mayor of Cologne for the Rhineland provinces to be split from Prussia. Do that and restore Hanover as well and you drastically reduce the power of Prussia and its dominant military and aristocratic groups.

 

[Zyobot]

It definitely a clear military target and one important to both Britain and the US given the threat posed by both the surface fleet and now the U boats. A lot of civilians are likely to die as collateral damage but I think if their going to hit anywhere this is probably the target most likely to meet the needs of the allies.

The fleet mutiny helped trigger things but it was all falling apart by then. If they hadn't revolted by that time one of the other groups would have started the avalanche rolling.

One down side is that the revanchists in Germany are going to have even more excuse for their claim that they weren't clearly defeated on the battlefield. OTL they were but here its some magic weapon that's appeared that almost certain to prompt surrender.

Mind you I wonder would the Austrian empire survive this time around, albeit in a markedly smaller form?

I’m not sure how eager post-war Germany would be to engage in much revanchism, when there’d be substantial fear of the US nuking them again if they step out of line. Sure, they only received two bombs (and probably won’t be building more for a few years, at least), but it’s not like the rest of the world knows that, so…

 

[Buba]

It definitely a clear military target and one important to both Britain and the US given the threat posed by both the surface fleet and now the U boats.

I was thinking of the surface fleet only. The HSF was largely irrelevant to the war. What would be impact of the German battlefleet controlling the North Sea? As it is too short legged to go anywhere further? And good luck against RN subs ...

Were the subs Wilhelmshaven based?

The fleet mutiny helped trigger things but it was all falling apart by then.

OK.

Mind you I wonder would the Austrian empire survive this time around,

It should.

Rhineland provinces to be split from Prussia. Do that and restore Hanover as well

And throw in Hessen while you are at it. Cut down Prussia to less than 50% of the population and GDP. This will prevent a Pruessenschlag from delivering the whole country to whoever rules the largest state.

it’s not like the rest of the world knows that

Depends on details of the Bomb Grant, but sooner or later somebody will blab.

 

[stevep]

I was thinking of the surface fleet only. The HSF was largely irrelevant to the war. What would be impact of the German battlefleet controlling the North Sea? As it is too short legged to go anywhere further? And good luck against RN subs ...

Were the subs Wilhelmshaven based?

OK.

It should.

And throw in Hessen while you are at it. Cut down Prussia to less than 50% of the population and GDP. This will prevent a Pruessenschlag from delivering the whole country to whoever rules the largest state.

Depends on details of the Bomb Grant, but sooner or later somebody will blab.

The HSF was very important in bringing Britain into the Franco-Russia campaign and as such was a big player in making a long war possible. Also it was a clear symbol of German military power and as such attacking that would be generally seen as a legitimate military target.

Furthermore it wasn't without military influence. While by 1917 there was relatively little change of new attacks on British coastal ports it still tied up a lot of the RN countering it and that included many destroyers and also manpower from the other ships which could have been useful in an earlier and more effective convoy system. Devastate the HSF and you could retire the pre-dreads and probably a fair number of the older dreadnoughts which would free up a lot of resources.

Otherwise agree with your arguments. Not too sure about Austria since it was already on the rocks and this scenario would give Wilson, with his desire for nation states even more power at the peace treaty. Think an updated Austrian state with most of the empire included that proved stable would have been a considerable boost to stability and development in Europe after WWI. Coupled with the structural weakening of Prussia in any German state it makes Europe a lot more stable, especially assuming a stable democratic regime wins out in Russia.

 

[WolfBear]

The HSF was very important in bringing Britain into the Franco-Russia campaign and as such was a big player in making a long war possible. Also it was a clear symbol of German military power and as such attacking that would be generally seen as a legitimate military target.

Furthermore it wasn't without military influence. While by 1917 there was relatively little change of new attacks on British coastal ports it still tied up a lot of the RN countering it and that included many destroyers and also manpower from the other ships which could have been useful in an earlier and more effective convoy system. Devastate the HSF and you could retire the pre-dreads and probably a fair number of the older dreadnoughts which would free up a lot of resources.

Otherwise agree with your arguments. Not too sure about Austria since it was already on the rocks and this scenario would give Wilson, with his desire for nation states even more power at the peace treaty. Think an updated Austrian state with most of the empire included that proved stable would have been a considerable boost to stability and development in Europe after WWI. Coupled with the structural weakening of Prussia in any German state it makes Europe a lot more stable, especially assuming a stable democratic regime wins out in Russia.

If a stable democratic regime wins out in Russia, then there won't be any need for Austria-Hungary's survival.

 

[stevep]

If a stable democratic regime wins out in Russia, then there won't be any need for Austria-Hungary's survival.

There would be less need for a surviving Austrian-Hungary one but I'm a firm believer in the belt, braces and three pieces of string approach.

 

[WolfBear]

There would be less need for a surviving Austrian-Hungary one but I'm a firm believer in the belt, braces and three pieces of string approach.

So, A-H loses Bukovina, Galicia, Bosnia, perhaps Dalmatia, and Trentino but nothing else? Does it also get a cantonal system in its remaining territories as in Switzerland?

 

[WolfBear]

Any chance that a surviving A-H can be persuaded or forced to part with southern Transylvania, which was much more indisputably Romanian than northern Transylvania was?

 

[Buba]

I'm a firm believer in the belt, braces and three pieces of string approach.

Don't forget the condom!

If a stable democratic regime wins out in Russia, then there won't be any need for Austria-Hungary's survival.

If any regime willing to continue fighting the CP survives in Russia. They could be Satan worshipping vegans with a puppy kicking fetish for all Britain and France care.

 

[WolfBear]

Does Italy still acquire Venetia if Austria wins at Koniggratz/Sadowa over Prussia in 1866?

 

[ATP]

Does Italy still acquire Venetia if Austria wins at Koniggratz/Sadowa over Prussia in 1866?

Of course not.Especially,that Austria in this TL would have breachloader rifles,which mean italian massacre.

 

[Zyobot]

‘How Would The Nazis Fare In A Weimar Civil War?’.

Would they come out on top like Franco’s Nationalists in Spain, or would they be crushed like the White Army in Russia? (No doubt they’d be trading blows with communists in both cases, with liberal and social-democratic militants agitating on the side.)

 

[Eparkhos]

It depends, really. Assuming a Weimar Civil War starts in the 1930s once the economic collapse dumps gasoline on internal fires, I see three likely scenarios:

1. KPD tries to overthrow the government
2. Various rightists try to overthrow the government by themselves
3. Various rightists try to overthrow the government with the support of the army

1. Results in a larger, bloodier replay of the Spartacist Revolt, with the SPD siding with the rightists and putting down the coup after a few weeks/months of fighting. In this case, the NSDAP is probably a minor part of a rightist coalition dominated by the DNVP/Monarchists that ultimately fades away into obscurity.

2. Results in a KPD-SDP-Zentrum coalition against various rightists. Civil war lasts a few weeks/months before the rightists are put down, and Hitler/NSDAP leadership wind up dead in a ditch somewhere or in exile.

3. Is a tossup, depending on how much of the army joins the rebels, which groups are involved, etc. This has the most potential to turn into a complete clusterfuck a la the Spanish Civil War, or it might end in a quick victory for either side followed by a dictatorship. The fate of the NSDAP varies between these scenarios.

 

[Eparkhos]

Inspired by the above:

'What if von Papen decides that the NSDAP/Hitler is a proxy for Schleicher?'

 

[WolfBear]

‘How Would The Nazis Fare In A Weimar Civil War?’.

Would they come out on top like Franco’s Nationalists in Spain, or would they be crushed like the White Army in Russia? (No doubt they’d be trading blows with communists in both cases, with liberal and social-democratic militants agitating on the side.)

I would expect the French to militarily intervene on the side of the more moderate German nationalists in such a civil war if supporting the German Social Democrats is unfeasible. This should be enough to have the more moderate German nationalists win such a civil war.

Inspired by the above:

'What if von Papen decides that the NSDAP/Hitler is a proxy for Schleicher?'

Then Hitler never becomes Chancellor and might instead commit suicide out of despair?