United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread

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Sergeant Foley

Sergeant Foley

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strunkenwhite said:
If Biden leaves office on Inauguration Day 2025 (i.e. is not reelected), it seems very likely that his replacement would be a Republican vs. Democrat/other. So what's the difference between (A) and (B)?

As for my answer, I suspect that Tuberville's fellow Republicans will crack on holding up appointments before the Democrats/military crack on the policy that inspired it. Before the election.

If I'm wrong on that, and a Republican is headed for the White House, then I think Democrats will crack instead of delaying the inevitable. If Republicans fail to win the presidency then they will probably drop it as quietly as possible with Democrats not publicizing it in return for speed. I don't think Republicans are willing to hold things up indefinitely (e.g. 4+ years).

Under the current rules (or is it custom?) Tuberville can hold things up singlehandedly, but if enough Republicans disagree with what he's doing they can threaten to work with Democrats to alter the rules to change that. I don't know Tuberville that well, but all I have to know about him is that other Republicans will crack before he does and I think that's correct.

So in all cases I think the jam will be over before any of the options you listed, although they might not finish getting through all the backlog before then.
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If Tuberville's hold drags on with the intent of a Trump second term (assuming he defeats Biden in 2024) , I cannot see Brown getting confirmed as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

And let's not forget about the possibility of the Republicans winning back control of the United States Senate next Fall.
 
Zachowon

Zachowon

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strunkenwhite said:
I haven't followed that one. What's wrong with Brown?
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strunkenwhite said:
If Biden leaves office on Inauguration Day 2025 (i.e. is not reelected), it seems very likely that his replacement would be a Republican vs. Democrat/other. So what's the difference between (A) and (B)?

As for my answer, I suspect that Tuberville's fellow Republicans will crack on holding up appointments before the Democrats/military crack on the policy that inspired it. Before the election.

If I'm wrong on that, and a Republican is headed for the White House, then I think Democrats will crack instead of delaying the inevitable. If Republicans fail to win the presidency then they will probably drop it as quietly as possible with Democrats not publicizing it in return for speed. I don't think Republicans are willing to hold things up indefinitely (e.g. 4+ years).

Under the current rules (or is it custom?) Tuberville can hold things up singlehandedly, but if enough Republicans disagree with what he's doing they can threaten to work with Democrats to alter the rules to change that. I don't know Tuberville that well, but all I have to know about him is that other Republicans will crack before he does and I think that's correct.

So in all cases I think the jam will be over before any of the options you listed, although they might not finish getting through all the backlog before then.
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Brown made the claim that the military officers should reflect the population of the Country.
As in percentage wise.
So 13% Black, 15 Hispanic, 69 white.
Which would lead to at least 5 thousand white officers beinf fired due ti skin color.
And by claim I mean he made a memo for the AF.

And Tuberville is holding it up due to the idea that the SecDef broke the law. Allowing the government to pay for transport for abortions. it is being argued and legality in the armed forces committe.

Also, the SecArm apperently went against congress with the help of a senator.
 
strunkenwhite

strunkenwhite

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Sergeant Foley said:
If Tuberville's hold drags on with the intent of a Trump second term (assuming he defeats Biden in 2024) , I cannot see Brown getting confirmed as the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

And let's not forget about the possibility of the Republicans winning back control of the United States Senate next Fall.
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When I say Democrats will crack if Trump or whoever wins, I mean they will back down on supporting the military abortion-facilitating policy.

In the event of a Democrat being elected or re-elected, a Republican majority is only relevant when it comes to setting the rules for the new Senate session. If a bare Democratic majority was good enough to do anything about Tuberville it would already have been done.

As far as which party is more likely to be in control of the Senate in 2025, I think "possibility" of Republican victory is putting it lightly. Democrats cannot afford to lose more than one seat, and they have to defend WV, MT, OH, AZ, NV, MI, WI, and PA, while the most (but not very) vulnerable Republican seats are probably TX, FL, and IN.
 
strunkenwhite

strunkenwhite

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nypost.com

Joe Manchin says he’s ‘thinking seriously’ about leaving Democratic Party

Sen. Joe Manchin said Thursday he is “thinking seriously” about leaving the Democratic Party and registering as an independent. “I’m thinking seriously. For me, I have to have peace of mind, basica…
nypost.com nypost.com

If he does go independent and runs for US Senate again, it will be funny to see what the WV Democratic Party does about it. Kiss his ass and endorse an independent party-bolter? Go with their own candidate and torpedo whatever chance might exist of a non-Republican winning? Hide from everyone and pretend they forgot an election is happening?
 
Blasterbot

Blasterbot

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See the problem I got with that is every time someone says I'm an independent in those halls they vote D 95% of the time or more. if they were actually independent the republicans would have technically been the majority party 50 to 48 or 49. it is a weird psuedo thing where they say they aren't but every time the chips are down they count as dems anyways.
 
strunkenwhite

strunkenwhite

Well-known member
Blasterbot said:
See the problem I got with that is every time someone says I'm an independent in those halls they vote D 95% of the time or more. if they were actually independent the republicans would have technically been the majority party 50 to 48 or 49. it is a weird psuedo thing where they say they aren't but every time the chips are down they count as dems anyways.
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I agree that if Manchin goes independent he would be more likely to be that kind of independent than an actual swing independent or a Republican independent. Still puts the WV Dems in a tight spot IMO by spitting in their faces.
 
Spartan303

Spartan303

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If he leaves, doesn't that more or less end the Democrat control of the Senate?
 
strunkenwhite

strunkenwhite

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Spartan303 said:
If he leaves, doesn't that more or less end the Democrat control of the Senate?
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1. Leaving the Dem party doesn't necessarily mean no longer caucusing with Dems in the Senate. (Think of it as a parliamentary coalition but the minor parties are literally a few individual senators.)

2. The current Dem Senate majority is 51-49 (counting three independents), so even if Manchin fully defected to the Republicans it would still only be 50-50 with the Dem VP as tiebreaker.
 
C

Causeimboredrightnow

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49ersfootball

49ersfootball

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Causeimboredrightnow said:
Not surprising given everything that the Dems let people go after him and Sinema without condemnation

Like others have said though, I don’t expect this to actually change anything fundamentally about the majority/minority in congress, or even the votes of manchin.
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The Dems will also have to defend US Senate seats in 2026 with the following:
VA: If Warner seeks reelection to 4th term, but I think he'll run again because he does NOT want to lose to Dog Whistle Youngkin.
NH: Shaheen seeking reelection to 4th term.
MI: Peters presumably running for 3rd term: In 2014, he won in a landslide but in 2020, he narrowly held on. What gives ?
IL: Will Durbin seek reelection in 2026 to a 6th term ? Or will he hang it up ?
MN: Smith presumably seeking reelection to 2nd full term.
GA: Ossoff will be heavily targeted for defeat by the RSCC. GA Governor Brian Kemp (R) will be pressured by McConnell & Co., to run for this US Senate seat.
NM: Lujan should be easily reelected since NM is a Blue State.
CO: Hickenlooper will be fine & cruise to reelection by double digits.
OR: Merkely wins 4th term by double digits.
RI: Safe Dem Hold regardless if Reed seeks reelection to 6th term or not.
MA: Markey easily wins 3rd full term.
NJ: Booker wins 3rd full term easily by double digits. Big question is whether he cracks 60% ?
 
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