Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Battlegrinder said:
Apparently not enough of them, since they had the Scooby-Doo Van out hauling supplies on like day 2 of the war.

And yes, I know it's a military grade Scooby-Doo Van from the 60s. That doesn't make it better.
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It is an all terrain van with several modifications, and we saw it,like, once.
Maybe it was there and driving in front of the big trucks because it was acting as a disposable target, or it had troops in that were supposed to scout in front of the column, or they let it drive in front because it was the fastest of the column, dunno.
 
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
 
Battlegrinder said:
Apparently not enough of them, since they had the Scooby-Doo Van out hauling supplies on like day 2 of the war.

And yes, I know it's a military grade Scooby-Doo Van from the 60s. That doesn't make it better.
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You don't know the fucking half of it. Check out this review of a brand-new UAZ van from 2015. Link is to my favorite part; where a welding rod that got stuck was just left on the damned frame and painted over. Just dangling there. Second favorite part is the made-in-China component sticker under the vehicle.



These are the people who think they're going to take Kyiv.
 
History Learner said:
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
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Please write down this phone number: 800-273-8255 Because you're gonna need it in a few weeks time.
 
History Learner said:
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
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As me, you, @Chiron a few other posters and a number of on-line commentators have been repeating.
But no one actually listens.
They are too wedded to CNN talking heads and US style shock and awe.
 
History Learner said:
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
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Mods, at this point the standards for what goes in which thread is so opaque as to make the distinction between the two irrelevant. If basic analysis of the war is required here, you're going to need to prune the last several pages of the other thread.
 
History Learner said:
Is that why Ukraine abandoned its earlier insistence on its territorial integrity?
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Where did you hear they had abandoned that claim?

Last I saw of news on the ceasefire talks was that Russia had removed the 'denazification' and 'demilitarization' wording, and was leaving the language open for Ukraine to join the EU.

Nothing about abandoning territorial integrity.
 
Bacle said:
Where did you hear they had abandoned that claim?

Last I saw of news on the ceasefire talks was that Russia had removed the 'denazification' and 'demilitarization' wording, and was leaving the language open for Ukraine to join the EU.

Nothing about abandoning territorial integrity.
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Beyond the fact the Russians didn’t say that, just last week Zelensky was saying the status of Crimea and Donbass weren’t for discussion….and now he is saying that can be discussed between Ukraine and Russia on a bilateral level over the next 15 years.

That’s a clear step back and reflects the weakening Ukrainian position. They are decisively loosing this war, and now their position at the peace talks reflects that.
 
History Learner said:
Beyond the fact the Russians didn’t say that, just last week Zelensky was saying the status of Crimea and Donbass weren’t for discussion….and now he is saying that can be discussed between Ukraine and Russia on a bilateral level over the next 15 years.

That’s a clear step back and reflects the weakening Ukrainian position. They are decisively loosing this war, and now their position at the peace talks reflects that.
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I asked where you had seen any of that, you still haven't provide any cites or sources.
 
History Learner said:
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
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I think the attack was intended to take kiev, but failed. After that, Russia followed its deep battle doctrine and changed it from an attack to a holding action.
 
TheRejectionist said:
Wasn't the Union unpopular or impractical to begin with ? Both in 1989 and later ?
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Yep.

History Learner said:
Maybe next time explicitly ask for a source instead of trying a weird gotcha?

Zelensky again called for direct talks with Putin, and said he would also be open to having discussions on Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and parts of the Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists.
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So, Ukrainian neutrality but with actual legally binding Western security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with a permanent Ukrainian loss of both Crimea and the Donbass? With Russia seizing additional Ukrainian territories outside of Crimea and the Donbass to use as bargaining chips in exchange for Ukrainian recongition of Crimea and the Donbass and a lifting of most or all Western sanctions on Russia?
 
WolfBear said:
Yep.



So, Ukrainian neutrality but with actual legally binding Western security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine combined with a permanent Ukrainian loss of both Crimea and the Donbass? With Russia seizing additional Ukrainian territories outside of Crimea and the Donbass to use as bargaining chips in exchange for Ukrainian recongition of Crimea and the Donbass and a lifting of most or all Western sanctions on Russia?
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I am of the thought the West just wants a proxy war to try to bleed Russia.

Also worrying :

 
History Learner said:
Maybe next time explicitly ask for a source instead of trying a weird gotcha?

Zelensky again called for direct talks with Putin, and said he would also be open to having discussions on Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, and parts of the Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists.
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No weird 'gatcha' was implied. I simply asked where you had seen such news, because it was not part of anything that I had seen.

Now, having actually read the article you linked, it did not say Zelenski had abandoned trying to get Crimea and the Donbass back, so not sure where you got that idea.

I mean I would not be wholly surprised if giving up Ukrainian claims to the Donbass and Crimea was part of Russia's demands, but nothing in the article said Zelenski had ceded to that.
 
History Learner said:
The Russian attack in the Kiev direction has achieved its purpose, it tied large amounts of the Ukrainian Army which has enabled the Russians to achieve their goals elsewhere, namely the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea and set the conditions for the encirclement of the JTO to be completed. Somewhere between 50,000 to 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers are about to be encircled and forced to surrender, that's going to decide the war and it explains why Ukraine is increasingly desperate to get a peace deal while they still have some leverage.

All that NATO training, equipment and volunteers did nothing to prevent this, the Russian way of war is alive and well.
Click to expand...
Yes, I am sure those completely untrained reinforcements equipped with Soviet Era equipment that Russia is bringing in will be a real threat.
 
Bacle said:
No weird 'gatcha' was implied. I simply asked where you had seen such news, because it was not part of anything that I had seen.

Now, having actually read the article you linked, it did not say Zelenski had abandoned trying to get Crimea and the Donbass back, so not sure where you got that idea.

I mean I would not be wholly surprised if giving up Ukrainian claims to the Donbass and Crimea was part of Russia's demands, but nothing in the article said Zelenski had ceded to that.
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So I take it you didn’t actually read what I said and are continuing your gotcha attempts, because that’s not even close to what I stated.

When peace talks initially began, Zelensky/Ukraine were firm that the status of the Donbass and Crimea was not up for discussion at all; Ukraine’s territorial integrity was not open to debate. That position has now slide to Zelensky openly discussing such and saying that status can be talked about. This is a clear break from the previous stance, even if Kiev has not formally ceded it’s claims.

That they’ve made this change reflects the battlefield reality as I said.
 
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