Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)

Feels like several wars in modern history have involved smaller forces, from worse initial positions, pacifying and occupying more territory at better speed.
Which ones?
I'm pretty sure that invading such large (largest in Europe bar Russia, significantly larger than Iraq) and populous country (40+ mil. people and 200.000+ army) with such a small force (150.000 soldiers?) is pretty much unprecedented in modern history.
 
So you believe it was right to kill all those German civilians in Hamburg and Dresden via carpet bombing?


a square is not a rectangle but both are qualilaterals.

Doesn't really matter if they're fascist or nazi. Neither are anything good.

have you ever seen those clips of Ukrainians marching in the night with torches and nazi symbols? I believe it was a veneration march for Stepan Bandera, a known Nazi collaborator and participant in the Holocaust.

Oh, and the UPA under Bandera killed a lot of Poles back in the day too. Hope you remember that one the next time you think about supporting the Ukrops, who venerate him like a saint!


Not even sunflowers will grow over the corpses of ukrop-fascists/nazis.


It is literally impossible to invade Canada unless you are USA or have somehow already conquered USA.


For a OSINT guy, you clearly don't know the difference between the amount of equipment in inventory and the amount that actually operational.

And with all those Russian attacks on airfields and related facilities, I doubt they have any more left in operational condition.

Why else would the Ukrops be begging for Polish MiG-29s?


For all we know he could still be alive, sitting in a safehouse in Arizona, playing checkers and drinking tea with George HW Bush.

Osama had connections with the CIA from his days in Afghanistan fighting against the Soviets.

CIA asked him to plan 9/11, which would serve as a casus belli for USA to move into the Middle East and begin their destabilization of the region.

1.No,i claim that germany was not libereted,but defeated.You do not carpet bombing people who you want liberate.
USA crimes in Drezno are proof,that germany was not liberated,but conqered.

2.And KGBstan is marching with soviet banners,soviets murdered lot more people then nazis,not mention fascists.
We remember about Bandera crimes - but that was 80 years ago.Putin genocided 10 years ago,claim that ukrainian do not exist and poles should not exist.
We do not like Ukraine,but when they fall,we would be next.

3.KGBstan could destroy their bodies,but they still would be real ukrainian heroes,who hold city for month or longer against overwhelming odds.Good for Ukraine - they now have real heroes,not Bandera fakes.

4.After another few years of Biden handlers ruling,there would be no USA.And then KGBstan would come for you.

I verify all of my sources, thank you very much. In this war, everybody lies a lot.
Maybe is a surprise for you, but die-hard neo-nazis exist.
Killing civilians to get a good photo - is a real overused military tactic used by everyone. Just learn a bit of the military story.
No side is a saint, the only rule/constant is that the winners write the story and always say they are saints, the other side devils.
These days, so few people learn history, which is very sad.

Of corse,we do not live in Middle Earth with good Gondor and bad Mordor.Problem is,that you take both sides as equally quilty - when KGBstan started many wars and murdered cyvilians for decades,when Ukraine do not.They lie - sure,but not as much as Putin.
 
Just curious - @ATP, have you ever served, or ever been in a war? Because, trust me, the military time is very different of the (current) media time. Placing troops (and resources) in place takes time, is not a instant thing, like in computer wargames.
Even the mighty (lol) US army, needs a lot of time to do that.

Formally i could lead platoon,mostly forget .
I do not play wargames.
But - if you are winning,you are taking enemy territory,not sit on your ass,that what i remember from army.
 
1)War is an extension of politics, as such it is a political act.

Ok, so then we've never lost a war, we've only encountered political defeats and never military ones. Got any more Clausewitz misquote you'd like to try and toss out?

2) The power disparity between Ukraine and Russia is smaller than that between the USA and all the 3rd world shitholes it went into and turned into bigger shitholes.

Ok, and that explains why they're doing shockingly badly and underperformed the expectations of everyone, including Putin.....how?

3) Russia has a different military doctrine

Yeah, we've noticed. It sucks. They should try something else. Were you the guy talking up how smart they are using using their own men for ATGM bait, or was that one the other Russia fanboys here?

and thus far it has been trying to keep undue civillian deaths to a minimum.

They're either not trying very hard, or they are trying and they're not very good at that either. By my math, iraqi had a civilian casualty rate of about 195 a week. Ukraine is 225/week, and that's almost certainly a low estimate.

No shock and awe, no on demand bombardments called in from the troops sent out to mop up things.

Yeah, and after about 10,000 dead guys later they're finding out that we do all that stuff for a reason.

Is the first time, because has done that many times...

Many times during the Indian wars, sure. However, unlike Russia we've changed a bit since the 19th century.
 
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Which ones?
I'm pretty sure that invading such large (largest in Europe bar Russia, significantly larger than Iraq) and populous country (40+ mil. people and 200.000+ army) with such a small force (150.000 soldiers?) is pretty much unprecedented in modern history.
The invasion of Iraq, for one? I mean, you say it's significantly larger, and there is a size discrepancy but the area actually occupied by Russia is far less.
 
[...]
I follow a couple of VFX artists on YouTube, they've consistently pointed to the difficulties of altering and applying effects to existing photos or videos, even professionals get it wrong occasionally. And that's alteration, it's much, much harder to create a passable image from scratch, and nearly impossible to create one that can pass intense scrutiny that Osama's were subjected to (and that's today, vs the much rougher technology of ten years ago).
Same here: It's also a parallel career option to something I'm interested in too (SFX in games, movies, and other media) through software like Maya, Nuke, and Houdini, so I've picked up a few things in passing.

As you said, creating accurate, photo-realistic (to be convincing, not just realistic-looking) fakes and deep-fakes is an incredibly hard process; one which even established artists and studios fuck up with all the time with productions that cost millions on millions.

The human eye and brain are remarkably efficient at pointing out even the tiniest flaw in an image for their owners, even on a subconscious level, and going, "lol nope, that's not real" with full on red lights and air-raid sirens.

People seem to think creating such convincing shots is as easy as a guy fucking around with Photoshop or After Effects in their spare time as they create memes or follow tutorials to restore that old photograph. These people are as clueless as those men willingly entering marriage these days (from societal and legal standpoints) in the West, heh.
 
You're conflating military operations with political ones. The US's operations in Afghanistan were very well done on the military level, it was the political aspect where they stumbled.
Ok, so then we've never lost a war, we've only encountered political defeats and never military ones. Got any more Clausewitz misquote you'd like to try and toss out?



Ok, and that explains why they're doing shockingly badly and underperformed the expectations of everyone, including Putin.....how?



Yeah, we've noticed. It sucks. They should try something else. Were you the guy talking up how smart they are using using their own men for ATGM bait, or was that one the other Russia fanboys here?



They're either not trying very hard, or they are trying and they're not very good at that either. By my math, iraqi had a civilian casualty rate of about 195 a week. Ukraine is 225/week, and that's almost certainly a low estimate.



Yeah, and after about 10,000 dead guys later they're finding out that we do all that stuff for a reason.



Many times during the Indian wars, sure. However, unlike Russia we've changed a bit since the 19th century.
Underperformed by what measures?
What ATGM bait?
Why don't you go watch CRP's on the spot reporting, he goes into detail how the Russians are going out of their way to keep civilian infrastructure in tact.
According to Ukrainian claims Ukraine is winning the war and there were close to 20 000 Russian casualties a few days ago, now they are under 12k according to the Invasion thread.
 
lmao no they didn't, they kept the majority of their command, control, and logistics base in Pakistan, where the US couldn't reach them. You think it's an accident that Osama Bin Laden was caught a stone's throw from Pakistan's major military academy? When you have an enemy who's vital rear areas can never be assailed, even if you vaporize his army he'll have all the time in the world to just build another one.

With the exception of Haqqani, every Taliban Leader who went to Pakistan in 2001 to 2006 was arrested and turned over to the US. Mullah Omar stayed in Afghanistan and lived right under the US's nose. He spent the rest of his life on a spiritual bender.

The overwhelming majority of the Taliban Leadership and rank and file stayed in Afghanistan, operated within 50 miles of their homes, built up local support and civic engagement, and outgoverned the Central Afghan Government by simply not being corrupt. There was a core of 40,000 Taliban backed by 10,000 to 20,000 Foreign Fighters who actively engaged the Afghan Army and NATO Forces across the country, but primarily the Afghan Army who alone they actually had to defeat. NATO was irrelevant and was unable to provide governance.

This exact same thing happened in Korea, Iraq, and Vietnam. Korea is especially notable because the Chinese Army actually joined the war directly against America. With Iraq, the "civil war" was mostly foreign fighters trained and equipped in Iran. Iran even mass-produced off-road EFP mines to send over the border. (Many of the same people who were in power and did absolutely nothing to punish Iran for this - or even rewarded them for it - would later screech their heads off when Trump turned Soleimani into meaty gibs. Make of that what you will.) Now review the scorecard:

Most IEDs were produced in Iraq using unexploded ordinance and machine shops. Youtube is replete with various insurgent groups showing off how they used unexplode US ordinance against the US, made home made rockets, ect. Iran's role was coordination and basically co-opting the Iraqi Government, getting the US to pay for it, and brazenly looting US military supplies with impunity. That and getting away with raiding a US base, kidnapping US soldiers and then executing them in cold blood to send a message.

Korea: Now highly stable and... about as healthy a democracy as any SE Asian nation has managed (lol Japan) at the cost of decades of permanent military presence to guard them, adding up to untold trillions of dollars over the years since the Armistice. Oh, and a nuclear entanglement potential, too.

No thanks to the US, South Korea is good and stable because they got their shit together and have a larger military than North does, hell if they get nukes, we can even leave them be.

Vietnam: War was actually won, and then the government we supported and defended collapsed... after Democrats gained control of Congress and promptly chopped the funding support, throwing away everything thousands of Americans died for.

We lost decisively to the North who militarily ejected us from the Laotian Border, Cambodian Border, and DMZ, plus seized the port of Dong Ha and got to keep it in the Paris Peace Accords, cementing their dominance from that point on. No amount of spin changes the fact the North got to keep all their gains in the south.

Iraq: Actually, unambiguously won. Twice, first against Iran, then against ISIS. We won the prize, though not many people think it was worth the cost, given how much military modernization is yet to be done and the ever-nearer conflict with China. On the silver-linings side, Trump was in just long enough to prevent the usual fuckheads from making Kurdistan a permanent vassal state with an equally permanent US military commitment; because apparently one Korea isn't enough!

No we did not, we got suckered into a proxy war with Iran in which we footed the entire bill while Iran laughed and looted us blind. At the end of the day, they hold Iraq and Syria, got us to pay for it, and laughed.

Now, look at all that, and tell me - what do you think Putin's chances in Ukraine are, with fuel, food, medical supplies and weapons pouring into Ukraine through Poland?

A pittance to what Ukraine needs and with the transport and fuel networks being blown, is already unable to reach areas. Farmers have to use rope pulleys just to get supplies across blown bridges and rivers. Ukraine has to allocate fuel carefully as it keeps getting blown up, which limits where they can even counter-attack.

Y'see, the tragedy of Afghanistan is that it could have gone very differently. If you want to fight a forever war, you have to fight it AS a forever war. You commit to a strategy that you can afford to maintain indefinitely. In Afghanistan's case, that means you set up shop in that one province the Taliban never did manage to subjugate, and let the Taliban "have" Afghanistan. And every now and then you send some high-speed-low-drag boys outside the wire in the dark of night and they come back with a few severed heads. If the Taliban want Afghanistan? Let them have it! Let them run constant patrols. Let them keep one eye on the sky, always wondering if there's a Reaper with a laser paint on their dome. That's a cheap way to fight. The Taliban were able to fight asymmetric war for two decades with RPGs and rifles, and if it had taken 40 years for more pressing spending priorities to crop up for the Americans, they could've done that, too. But have you seen asymmetric war with the toys we have? With Switchblade drones and Javelin missiles and- oh. Well. I guess you have now, haven't you? 😏

None of those toys made a difference, the Taliban figured out how to avoid them and they wound up killing civilians and turning the Civilians against us. Also Javelins in the current conflict are being captured in such numbers, the Russian can spare some for familiarization training.

We have enough people who drink their own Kool-Aid and do their own stashes, don't be another.
 
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Yeah, we've noticed. It sucks. They should try something else. Were you the guy talking up how smart they are using using their own men for ATGM bait, or was that one the other Russia fanboys here?

That would be me, it works, and Russia wins its wars, so they are doing things right. Your argument is thus invalid.

Unless you think its smarter for a whole column to go down an unreconnoitered street and get lit up front and back then pounded. For the mission kill of one bait tank and two crew members, they figure out where the enemy was, got them to waste several ATGMs, thus revealing their positions, and opening them up to destruction. And no screening infantry would not have helped as they can't identify an ATGM position till it fires, and a disciplined crew will hold fire till a juicier target comes.
 
To add to what I told @Battlegrinder
Iraq had a population of about 23 million when the US invasion started, Ukraine has over 40 million, with a lot of it centered in big cities where the Ukrainian military and neonazis are using civilians as human shields.
Ukraine and Russia being closer force-wise and the western moral and material support mean that the fight will be harder than what the Iraquis offered the USA, that will inevitably make the collateral damage and civilian casualties greater than a cakewalk.
Do your figures include the US bombing campaign that was leveling Iraqui cities, btw?
Unfortunate?
Yes.
Sad?
Yes.

Are Zelenski and the west responsible?

YES!
 
The invasion of Iraq, for one?
You spoke of smaller armies making larger gains. Since invasion forces in Iraq numbered million (6 times the size of current Russian force) and half a million (3 times the size) respectively, this obviously does not apply.
Well, feel free to suggest some alternate metric, but until you do let's go with Wikipedia. They posit that the invasion of Iraq involved somewhere between 3 & 6 hundred thousand troops on the assaulting side. It gives the defenders a strength of 1.3 million. That's a much greater force imbalance than the Ukrainian defenders enjoyed. Depite the numerical difference, the aggressor allies had basically complete dominance of the battle space within a week.

I mean, play dumb all you want, but no modern military conflict has involved columns dozens of kilometres long stuck halfway between their jump off point and the objective because they lack basic logistics and the operation was planned by barely competent morons. Until this one. This is not a great power asserting dominance over a lesser one, it's a slightly stronger peer with MAD capability exhausting and overextending themselves for a stupid goal. I'll say it again, Poland alone could basically drive on Moscow at this point.
 
To add to what I told @Battlegrinder
Iraq had a population of about 23 million when the US invasion started, Ukraine has over 40 million, with a lot of it centered in big cities where the Ukrainian military and neonazis are using civilians as human shields.
Ukraine and Russia being closer force-wise and the western moral and material support mean that the fight will be harder than what the Iraquis offered the USA, that will inevitably make the collateral damage and civilian casualties greater than a cakewalk.
Do your figures include the US bombing campaign that was leveling Iraqui cities, btw?
Unfortunate?
Yes.
Sad?
Yes.

Are Zelenski and the west responsible?

YES!
So... Russia isn't that much better than Ukraine + a few thousand portable missile systems? What a truly impressive great power they are! :rolleyes:

America breaks the scale. Like it's technically 1st rate but it should be higher, but it can't be higher because number 1 is best. Other 1st rates are Britain, France, Japan, past Germany, and the Soviet Union. Basically nations that have a rather large army, that can dominate it's local area at least, and is well trained, and has good tactics and technology.

2nd rate would be an average nation think Poland, Romania, Ukraine, modern Germany, modern Russia. 2nd rate will have the most variance there are 2nd rates that get close to being 1st rate but they just aren't dominant enough Spain or Italy come to mind, also the low 2nd rates are those that aren't quite failed states but could end up there, if Russia keeps embarrasing itself it might go there or even 3rd. But for now they are a mid to mid high 2nd rate. But yeah most nations aren't shitheaps so they are here.

3rd rates are basket cases your average middle eastern dictatorship, or African hellhole. A high 3rd rate would be Saadam's Iraq, or current Syria under Assad. Low third rate are literal tribesmen with guns or spears. You can't go below 3rd rate, there is no such thing as a 4th rate or lower.
That actually sounds like we're largely in agreement, except that I'm considering the American scale breaking dominance to make them the only 1st rate power, lumping the rest you consider 1st in with the higher end of 2nd to form what I'd call second, and dropping lower 2nd rates in with the 3rd.

So... Russia definitely aren't in America's class but try to act like they are. Their performance has been so embarrassing that it's reasonable to consider them even lower than they were evaluated before. Evidence suggests that any 2-3 local powers could absolutely flatten them, without recourse to the stronger 2nd rate (By your evaluation.) powers capable of true force protection.

Neither of the ways we're grouping things can be perfect, but it doesn't seem like we have a fundamental difference of opinion in the comparative rankings but merely the nomenclature we use?
 
So... Russia isn't that much better than Ukraine + a few thousand portable missile systems? What a truly impressive great power they are! :rolleyes:
This is real war, not the US post-carpet bombing excursions into third-world shitholes.
Also, Russia was hardly sending their best, or committing all its forces, and trying to minimize colateral damage at the same time, with one theory I saw stating that they intentionally pushed well beyond their resupply lines and using older and more expendable equipment in order to make it harder for the Ukrainians to maneuver and organize into a single, cohesive fighting force.
As to all of the over-hyped kill counts we are getting from Ukraine and western media, well, I believe in them as much as I believe in the ghost of Kiev.

Also, meme time:


Now we know they were larping as the Rome larpers from FO:NV.
 
This is real war, not the US post-carpet bombing excursions into third-world shitholes.
Also, Russia was hardly sending their best, or committing all its forces, and trying to minimize colateral damage at the same time, with one theory I saw stating that they intentionally pushed well beyond their resupply lines and using older and more expendable equipment in order to make it harder for the Ukrainians to maneuver and organize into a single, cohesive fighting force.
As to all of the over-hyped kill counts we are getting from Ukraine and western media, well, I believe in them as much as I believe in the ghost of Kiev.
What about the casualty count direct from Russian state media, for nearly 10,000 dead and >16,000 more casualties? The fact that it's a "real war" is exactly my point. So, I guess I'm glad you agree? That Ukraine and Russia are on comparable footing, despite Russian preparations for the attack whilst Ukraine pointedly and blatantly didn't prepare forces so as to make a political point, is a sad indictment of Russia. They aren't on even footing with America. They aren't capable of significantly threatening NATO without reporting to MAD. They lost the bluff fight with Ukraine, sucker punched them while Ukraine turned the other cheek, and are losing disproportionately to an opponent they fooled themselv into thinking they could take easily.
 
What about the casualty count direct from Russian state media, for nearly 10,000 dead and >16,000 more casualties? The fact that it's a "real war" is exactly my point. So, I guess I'm glad you agree? That Ukraine and Russia are on comparable footing, despite Russian preparations for the attack whilst Ukraine pointedly and blatantly didn't prepare forces so as to make a political point, is a sad indictment of Russia. They aren't on even footing with America. They aren't capable of significantly threatening NATO without reporting to MAD. They lost the bluff fight with Ukraine, sucker punched them while Ukraine turned the other cheek, and are losing disproportionately to an opponent they fooled themselv into thinking they could take easily.
I do not follow the Western MSM, so I don't need you to try and spam me with their gibberish.
 
This is real war, not the US post-carpet bombing excursions into third-world shitholes.
Also, Russia was hardly sending their best, or committing all its forces, and trying to minimize colateral damage at the same time, with one theory I saw stating that they intentionally pushed well beyond their resupply lines and using older and more expendable equipment in order to make it harder for the Ukrainians to maneuver and organize into a single, cohesive fighting force.
As to all of the over-hyped kill counts we are getting from Ukraine and western media, well, I believe in them as much as I believe in the ghost of Kiev.

Burgerstanis are spoiled by thier curbstomp wars against fourth rate shitholes. Russia has indeed underperformed, and this war has revealed glaring weaknesses, but the difference between fighting a ukraine being supplied and stuffed full of modern western weapons and an isolated rattletrap Iraq crippled by airstrikes is enormous.
 
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