Chiron
Well-known member
That and even if true, so what. Killing one general doesn't mean much. An organization that crumbles just because you killed one person isn't a good organization to begin with.
Armchair General's DonbAss Derailed Discussion Thread (Topics Include History, Traps, and the Ongoing Slavic Civil War plus much much more)
- Thread starter ParadiseLost
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That and even if true, so what. Killing one general doesn't mean much. An organization that crumbles just because you killed one person isn't a good organization to begin with.
Probably not. At best it's probably a wash.
Chiron
Well-known member
Yeah because it hasn't been refined yet into gasoline or diesel. No oil to the refineries, means no gasoline or diesel or other oil products to fight with.
You mean oil that wasn't getting to the refineries anyway since they were in a completely different country?
Chiron
Well-known member
You mean oil that wasn't getting to the refineries anyway since they were in a completely different country?
Currently, there are two functioning refineries in Ukraine: the Kremenchuk refinery (Ukrtatnafta) (design capacity – 18.6 million tons/year, actual – about 7 million tons/year) and the Shebelynka gas processing plant (Ukrgasvydobuvannya, Naftogaz Group) (design – 1 million tons/year and actual up to 0.6 million tons/year). In 2018, the refineries refined a 2.7 million tons of oil, roughly 80 percent of which was covered by oil of Ukrainian origin.
Taking out oil depots is actually a bad idea for Russia.
You can't simply turn off the oil pump and then turn it back on later. The entire ecosystem is designed around oil flowing out at roughly the same rate it is being pumped out of the ground.
If oil can't be shipped out of a port then it gets stuck in the holding tanks at the port. Once those get filled it starts steadily backing up the system until the pipeline is full and the pumps have to be shut down because there is no where to put the oil coming out of the ground. Shutting down those pumps will cripple Russian oil production for years to come because of various geological and technological issues involved.
Every depot blown up is one less depot to store excess crude.
Kazakhstan, for example, pumps roughly a million barrels per day that gets to market via Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Well right now, no one is all that inclined to sail commercial shipping (including oil tankers) in that area. Insurance for sailing in active war zones really is a killer.
You can't simply turn off the oil pump and then turn it back on later. The entire ecosystem is designed around oil flowing out at roughly the same rate it is being pumped out of the ground.
If oil can't be shipped out of a port then it gets stuck in the holding tanks at the port. Once those get filled it starts steadily backing up the system until the pipeline is full and the pumps have to be shut down because there is no where to put the oil coming out of the ground. Shutting down those pumps will cripple Russian oil production for years to come because of various geological and technological issues involved.
Every depot blown up is one less depot to store excess crude.
Kazakhstan, for example, pumps roughly a million barrels per day that gets to market via Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Well right now, no one is all that inclined to sail commercial shipping (including oil tankers) in that area. Insurance for sailing in active war zones really is a killer.
Chiron
Well-known member
The Ukrainian Depots are not Russian ones though, and if it causes oil prices to rise, then that is good for Russia, especially if it can sucker the EU and US into paying to repair it for their own interests.
That and Putin is quite willing to make a desert and call it peace. And as he ramps up the escalatory measures, the pressure mounts on Zelensky to throw in the towel.
Don't forget Putin leveled Chechnya to the point Kadyrov felt it better to take his silver rather than eat his lead.
And Syria... Well a whole lot of Rebel Holdouts and pockets no longer exist that aren't directly connected to Turkey or under a petulant US protection in the middle of nowhere with no food.
Ukrainian depots are Russian ones for most practical purposes. Those depots are connected to the Russian/Soviet pipeline network and so are spots in that network where crude can be stored.
Oil gets pumped out of the ground, oil goes into pipelines. Until that oil is consumed or loaded onto an oil tanker it remains part of that single network. The network only has so much capacity and more oil is being dumped into it every single day. If something occurs that reduces the ability to remove oil from the network (like a war disrupting tankers in the Black Sea) then the network has a reduced ability to handle oil.
Chiron
Well-known member
Comrade Tippy, you forget this is Russia and Oil Stores you. If need be we will burn the oil that can't be stored.
Just be glad we don't nuke our oil wells like we used to back in the day.
Floridaman
Well-known member
I mean it isn’t like Russia doesn’t have oil to spare.
If they're trying to pretend that it's a translation from Russian that's originally intended for a Russian audience, then the Mosul reference is a dead giveaway, no reason at all why an average Russian would know much about urban combat in Mosul as compared to, for example, Grozny. So fake, most likely.Picked up from /pol/ I believe, so it's likely horseshit doomposting. what do you think ?
Terthna
Professional Lurker
Unfortunately, no one's going to notice because they're all laser-focused on what's going on in Ukraine. Russia invading is probably the best thing that could have happened right now for the Biden administration; though I personally doubt that the timing was just a coincidence.
Putin saw abject weakness in the west and jumped upon the moment.
He was probally right america is in no position to have another war and europe is criminally weak.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
If that was all there was to it, he would have invaded immediately after the failed withdraw from Afghanistan. A lot of things are going on behind the scenes we're not aware of, and I suspect the Biden administration had a hand in somehow provoking Putin into acting now, instead of waiting a few more years.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Probably.
Agent23
Ни шагу назад!
Load in winter, spring, autumn and in summer differ, and since cold and warm fronts are more predictable I think that coal will be more flexible IMO than nuclear reactors.
Also, coal is used for thermal plants in the East, which produce heating for home radiators.Those fucking prefab panel buildings have fucking shitty isolation.
In the summer part of the daily load can probably be taken up by solar for example, since the time when you'd need the most juice for production, air conditioning and refrigeration is the time when the sun shines the most.
I am in a southern country,and it hits over 37 Celsius at times, last year iirc some places hit 40, we have also had winters of -20 and lower.
But solar panels are less useful in winter.
@LTR I think you might want to add 'energy' to the junkyard thread as well.
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On the contrary, a FSB analyst (which is who the source thinks wrote this) is not an average Russian. For purpose of guessing how large urban battles go, Mosul is much closer in size to Kyiv than Grozny. But he does make other comparisons to events in Chechnya and Serbia.
But he's not writing to other analysts, he's writing for the general public. Would you mention a battle that might be extremely well-known in another country but fairly obscure for the average Joe in yours, when explaining war history to your mother?
Floridaman
Well-known member
Also, 4chan green text, the rule there is assume everything posted is fake period.
Its a leak. It could have been written for other people in the business, or leaked by a different person than the author or the intended recipient.