China Wuhan Virus Pandemic

[Sailor.X]

Like I said, I think people are overreacting here. Just a tiny bit.

When the other nations with advanced medical teams get a look at the virus from people who arrived in their countries and suddenly all travel from China slams shut. I don't think it is an overreaction. We don't know the whole picture but I have a feeling it is very bad. The CCP is freaking scared for a reason and they don't normally get this scared.

 

[Scottty]

When the other nations with advanced medical teams get a look at the virus from people who arrived in their countries and suddenly all travel from China slams shut. I don't think it is an overreaction. We don't know the whole picture but I have a feeling it is very bad. The CCP is freaking scared for a reason and they don't normally get this scared.

Conspiracy theories are flying around about it being an artificial virus intended as a weapon. But who would be clever enough to do such a thing - but at the same time lunatic enough to think it was a good idea?

 

[Bacle]

The CCP is freaking scared for a reason and they don't normally get this scared.

That's it for me as well.

The reaction of Chinese authorities to the virus, what they've done to people who leak stuff from inside the quarantines, who has been leaking (most doctors fed up with the central governments lies/propaganda), and the increasingly alarming nature of this bug (which I will bet dollars to donuts is actually an escaped bio-weapon) mean anyone not seriously worried about this isn't informed enough.

 

[Tiamat]

Conspiracy theories are flying around about it being an artificial virus intended as a weapon. But who would be clever enough to do such a thing - but at the same time lunatic enough to think it was a good idea?

I don’t want to peddle conspiracy theories, but if you’re going to bring up biological warfare and why someone would engage in it...look no further than the Soviets biological warfare program disguised as a pharmaceutical research company known as Biopreparat.

Biopreparat - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Marduk]

That's it for me as well.

The reaction of Chinese authorities to the virus, what they've done to people who leak stuff from inside the quarantines, who has been leaking (most doctors fed up with the central governments lies/propaganda), and the increasingly alarming nature of this bug (which I will bet dollars to donuts is actually an escaped bio-weapon) mean anyone not seriously worried about this isn't informed enough.

Yeah, at this points we need to separate threat assessments for:
a) The bug itself, as a medical threat
b) The general situation in China and any other country involving the bug and its second order effects

I think we can't say for absolutely sure how much of a threat A is, most sources that aren't wildly speculative are pretty optimistic here, we will have considerably better datga in few weeks, but B seems to be getting pretty damn bad regardless of how bad A turns out to be.

 

[Sailor.X]

Conspiracy theories are flying around about it being an artificial virus intended as a weapon. But who would be clever enough to do such a thing - but at the same time lunatic enough to think it was a good idea?

Some scientists are not very smart common sense wise. They think about if they could do something rather than should the do something.

That's it for me as well.

The reaction of Chinese authorities to the virus, what they've done to people who leak stuff from inside the quarantines, who has been leaking (most doctors fed up with the central governments lies/propaganda), and the increasingly alarming nature of this bug (which I will bet dollars to donuts is actually an escaped bio-weapon) mean anyone not seriously worried about this isn't informed enough.

Exactly someone in the CCP fuckuped up royally and they trying to put this genie back in the bottle. Only problem is they can't too much time has passed.

 

[Bacle]

Yeah, at this points we need to separate threat assessments for:
a) The bug itself, as a medical threat
b) The general situation in China and any other country involving the bug and its second order effects

I think we can't say for absolutely sure how much of a threat A is, most sources that aren't wildly speculative are pretty optimistic here, we will have considerably better datga in few weeks, but B seems to be getting pretty damn bad regardless of how bad A turns out to be.

Personally, I'm more worried about NK in regards to #2.

China has enough...depth the may be able to weather this and remain a cohesive entity when it ends. Thus their nukes are likely to remain secure.

NK...if the bug goes wild there, I'm concerned what Kim might do with his nukes if things get really bad.

 

[Marduk]

Personally, I'm more worried about NK in regards to #2.

China has enough...depth the may be able to weather this and remain a cohesive entity when it ends. Thus their nukes are likely to remain secure.

NK...if the bug goes wild there, I'm concerned what Kim might do with his nukes if things get really bad.

NK could get honestly scarier in several different ways than China. China at least has half decent healthcare, and half decent crisis response and supply production.
North Korea is half functioning on a good day, and a large chunk of its population is starved, sick, and as such heavily immunocompromised as the norm. They will be dropping like flies if the disease spreads among them. That said we (and a lot of them) won't hear much of it if it happens, because you know, North Korea.
On the "bad for NK, good for the rest of the world" side, NK also has tightly closed borders even at a normal time, in particular with places that aren't China, so whatever happens there is unlikely to affect the rest of the world much...

Kim won't want to risk more sanctions or even a war when his divisions are in disarray due to the disease, nuking own cities will be a bad case of "too little, too late" that his generals probably will talk him out of, in fact it might become an opportunity to move negotiations with NK ahead a lot because SK and USA will be in a much better position to send help than China, which is struggling to get enough medical supplies for itself.

That also brings up an important distinction about the death rates. It's quite possible, even likely, that the official death rates are, in a way, completely accurate - for people with full access to first world grade healthcare through the whole time up until recovery, especially if they are among those who develop complications and need a stay in the ICU.
But for people who don't fit this little caveat, they can go only up, and by nature of this caveat, in places like China and NK they may not even be properly entered into the official statistics once some chaos spreads.

 

[Bacle]

NK could get honestly scarier in several different ways than China. China at least has half decent healthcare, and half decent crisis response and supply production.
North Korea is half functioning on a good day, and a large chunk of its population is starved, sick, and as such heavily immunocompromised as the norm. They will be dropping like flies if the disease spreads among them. That said we (and a lot of them) won't hear much of it if it happens, because you know, North Korea.
On the "bad for NK, good for the rest of the world" side, NK also has tightly closed borders even at a normal time, in particular with places that aren't China, so whatever happens there is unlikely to affect the rest of the world much...

Kim won't want to risk more sanctions or even a war when his divisions are in disarray due to the disease, nuking own cities will be a bad case of "too little, too late" that his generals probably will talk him out of, in fact it might become an opportunity to move negotiations with NK ahead a lot because SK and USA will be in a much better position to send help than China, which is struggling to get enough medical supplies for itself.

That also brings up an important distinction about the death rates. It's quite possible, even likely, that the official death rates are, in a way, completely accurate - for people with full access to first world grade healthcare through the whole time up until recovery, especially if they are among those who develop complications and need a stay in the ICU.
But for people who don't fit this little caveat, they can go only up, and by nature of this caveat, in places like China and NK they may not even be properly entered into the official statistics once some chaos spreads.

I'm kinda worried Kim may try to up his nuclear blackmail game, and start demanding free medical supply shipments on pain of nuking the nation in question if they do not help.

Or Kim could surprise us and decide to trade some (definitely not all) of his nukes for medical supplies and aid. But that's not what I expect to happen.

 

[Duke Nukem]

I'm kinda worried Kim may try to up his nuclear blackmail game, and start demanding free medical supply shipments on pain of nuking the nation in question if they do not help.

Or Kim could surprise us and decide to trade some (definitely not all) of his nukes for medical supplies and aid. But that's not what I expect to happen.

Who knows what Rocketman will decide to do.

 

[Marduk]

I'm kinda worried Kim may try to up his nuclear blackmail game, and start demanding free medical supply shipments on pain of nuking the nation in question if they do not help.

He's not that suicidal. He knows that if he does follows through, the packages coming will be far more likely of the kind containing instant sunshine than medical aid.
He and his close circles are far more likely to survive an outbreak gone horribly wrong and then rule a much less populated country than they are to survive a nuclear retaliation.

In fact i'd be more worried that he will sell some nuclear technology to someone you may not want to have it just to get some necessities for at least making the minimum of ruling instiutions survive and function through the outbreak.

Or Kim could surprise us and decide to trade some (definitely not all) of his nukes for medical supplies and aid. But that's not what I expect to happen.

That or some other favors, in either case it is a situation when relying only on China as an ally is not a good idea, so he would need to make some kind of concessions to someone else...

 

[Sol Zagato]

This panic is pointless. There is no evidence of a death rate in excess of the Spanish Flu, nothing being posted here contradicts that. If you are concerned, maintain a large stockpile of food in your home so you can self-isolate. No other preparation is conceivable as necessary at the moment.

The Spanish flu itself was pretty terrible. 3% death is actually a big problem. More than individual risk for death here, this is a disruption for the globalized world system. Chinese exports are down a quarter as of last week, quarantine measures have started in Beijing, and the Chinese government, according to just about everybody, is lying out their asses about the real statistics. The CCP is willing to pull out the stops when they think their grip on government is on the line, and that's where the real megadeaths may come in to play.

I think this is could be a lot like SARS where the virus kills people of East Asian descent but just about nobody else. The mortality rate in China will be much higher than the neighbors because Chinese facilities are getting overwhelmed and their air pollution is as bad as smoking.

 

[Arch Dornan]

I hate it when this happens.

 

[MelancholicMechanicus]

Hmmmmmmm

Man found dead at Troy apartments

TROY, N. Y. - Troy police have responded to a call for an unattended death at the City Station Apartments on 6th Avenue. When officers arrived, they found the body of a 28-year-old man. Deputy Chief Dan DeWolf says it is uncertain what medical reason led to his death. The medical examiner has...

cbs6albany.com

Hmmmmmmmm

 

[Guardian Box]

This virus has not killed a mere 800 to 1000 people. It has killed far, far more than that. They’re just not telling us because it would wreck the economy instantly if people knew something like this was on the loose.

Are you really this distrustful of the official government propaganda of a fascist totalitarian state, you bigot? [/sarcasm]

 

[DarthOne]

There are already compilation vids popping up from within the quarantine zone. These are a very difficult watch, so I’ve spoilers them. Viewer discretion is advised:

Spoiler: Coronavirus Vids

This virus has not killed a mere 800 to 1000 people. It has killed far, far more than that. They’re just not telling us because it would wreck the economy instantly if people knew something like this was on the loose.

Well. Fuck.

 

[Tiamat]

Update from the CDC on the developing situation:

 

[Terthna]

Where were you planning to cruise?

If you all were planning to do something in the Caribbean, your probably safe; it's cruises that come near Asia you should avoid at this point.

Just from Washington to Alaska, and back again.

 

[Bacle]

Just from Washington to Alaska, and back again.

Oh, nice, did that myself once; Vancouver to Seward.

You and your family might be ok on that sort of cruise. But be cautious because there are a LOT of Chinese tourists who flock to Alaska during the summer, some by cruise liner coming up the coast.

By April hopefully this will have all run it's course, so I wouldn't cancel now, but keep a weather eye on the situation.

 

[Duke Nukem]

I live next right to pittsburgh so I hope I don't hear of any cases there anytime soon