What if the post Cold War US from 1991 told its treaty allies "you're on your own" for conventional defense

raharris1973

Well-known member
Somewhat related to my earlier thread, https://www.the-sietch.com/index.ph...obal-society-is-a-polite-global-society.6188/, but different, in timing and extent.

What if the U.S. in the early 1990s told its treaty allies in the Pacific Rim and Europe that with the collapse of the USSR and the growth of their own technologies and economies, the burden of front-line and continuous protection from conventional military attack would be devolved toward them and based on their own resources, and US forces would stand back in a more supportive role, primarily providing a deterrent shield against any adversary threat of using nuclear weapons or catastrophic WMD?

A motive from the US end could be hardball economic competition with Japan and other Pacific Rim economies, perceived as a threat at the time. 1992 Presidential hopeful Paul Tsongas was fond of saying, "The Cold War is over. Japan won."

Some counties, I'm thinking on the Arabian peninsula, are too hapless and helpless to have their own militaries that can work, and that they can trust, and would continue to rely on US protection from larger demographic neighbors to the north like Iraq and Iran. But at least Arabian peninsula countries can/will provide kickbacks, paybacks for protection. [not that Eurasian allies don't provide some host nation support, they do]

What does the policy change in the early 1990s mean for various specific cases in US defense and foreign policy, Chinese and Russian defense and foreign policy, the same in the Pacific Rim and states throughout Europe, up through the present day?
 
First of all:

memed-io-output.jpg


I don't know how you'd make President Buchanan happen (I've argued the unlikelihood of it another thread; 'America First' just didn't have the required degree of popular support to win elections back then), but that's what it takes. Even a Perot Presidency wouldn't do the trick. You really need the one guy who actually wanted to end all foreign adventurism to be in charge, and to have a clear mandate, too.

Let's assume that as a given, regardless of the inherent difficulties.

In Europe, this has major effects. Europe got really lazy, coasting on US military spending. It's like that to this day. If the USA actually just pulls out and says "do it yourselves, we're only offering an anti-nuclear umbrella, the rest is up to you" -- that forces the European countries into a crash military expansion programme. They actually have to reach that highly-theoretical-in-OTL 2% of the budget on military spending, now. (This NATO guideline is just totally ignored in Europe in OTL, which is... telling.)

The essentially means that the USA just turned the EU into a success. All that whining about details goes right out the window when the USSR is fresh in the memory and Europe has to stand alone, now. The EU expands more quickly, and enforces its budget rules way more strictly. ("Fear will keep the Southern Europeans in line... fear of the Russians.")

There will be only little fighting about the "EU army". Britain will be told to fuck off with its half-in-half-out bullshit. Either full integration or you stand alone. (They'll bitch about it very loudly, and then they'll opt for the safety of the common cause anyway.) Euroskepticism will not be popular, especially not on the right. In fact, it'll probably be an exclusively far-left phenomenon.

Conversely, anti-Americanism will soar. In reality, the Europeans have been spoiled. That won't stop them from reacting as the spoiled tend to do whenever the spoiling stops. They'll blame "mean, selfish" America for everything. The OTL '90s anti-americanism will be much broader. Far from just a few McDonalds buildings being vandalised or torched by the league of disgruntled farmers in France (as in OTL), expect such famous American brands to literally get kicked out of Europe. "Yankees not welcome". There will be a trade war, no doubt. (This fits into the high-tariffs, ban-foreign-imports protectionism that Buchanan wanted anyway.) US-EU trade will dwindle way, way down.


....the results for the rest of the world are hard to interpret. A lot depends on the particulars. The EU will do its utmost to limit Russia, letting in the Baltic states and Poland and Ukraine and everything West of there join up as soon as can reasonably be managed. This hilariously means that there won't be a Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014: there will be EU warheads stationed there, aimed at Moscow! (The EU really faces way more of a direct threat from Russia than the USA does, and therefore will not be able to ever play soft-ball.) Russia will presumably be pretty vengeful about all this, and may turn East, to a Chinese alliance, dragging in all of Central Asia.

This may lead to US-EU rapprochement, unless the USA's isolationism really sticks. Then, the EU must become a fortress power, always watchful, always a bit terrified.

China, in any case, will be weaker. The EU alone will not be able to allow any weakening of its economy with bullshit globalist ambitions. It'll jump on the protectionist band-wagon. China's OTL export-driven upward surge is dead on arrival.

If the USA truly goes isolationist, then I think Canada, Australia and New Zealand will cozy up to the EU, forming a sort of "NATO without the USA". They'll view the USA as an insane hermit kingdom.


As for what becomes of the USA itself... well, it sure won't be the last time that I reference the late John Reilly's work. He wrote some of the more thought-provoking pieces in Alternate History, among other subjects. One of his essays is titled Tokugawa America, and it deals with precisely this subjects.

(You're missed, John. Dearly, dearly missed.)
 
First of all:

memed-io-output.jpg


I don't know how you'd make President Buchanan happen (I've argued the unlikelihood of it another thread; 'America First' just didn't have the required degree of popular support to win elections back then), but that's what it takes. Even a Perot Presidency wouldn't do the trick. You really need the one guy who actually wanted to end all foreign adventurism to be in charge, and to have a clear mandate, too.

Let's assume that as a given, regardless of the inherent difficulties.

In Europe, this has major effects. Europe got really lazy, coasting on US military spending. It's like that to this day. If the USA actually just pulls out and says "do it yourselves, we're only offering an anti-nuclear umbrella, the rest is up to you" -- that forces the European countries into a crash military expansion programme. They actually have to reach that highly-theoretical-in-OTL 2% of the budget on military spending, now. (This NATO guideline is just totally ignored in Europe in OTL, which is... telling.)

The essentially means that the USA just turned the EU into a success. All that whining about details goes right out the window when the USSR is fresh in the memory and Europe has to stand alone, now. The EU expands more quickly, and enforces its budget rules way more strictly. ("Fear will keep the Southern Europeans in line... fear of the Russians.")

There will be only little fighting about the "EU army". Britain will be told to fuck off with its half-in-half-out bullshit. Either full integration or you stand alone. (They'll bitch about it very loudly, and then they'll opt for the safety of the common cause anyway.) Euroskepticism will not be popular, especially not on the right. In fact, it'll probably be an exclusively far-left phenomenon.

Conversely, anti-Americanism will soar. In reality, the Europeans have been spoiled. That won't stop them from reacting as the spoiled tend to do whenever the spoiling stops. They'll blame "mean, selfish" America for everything. The OTL '90s anti-americanism will be much broader. Far from just a few McDonalds buildings being vandalised or torched by the league of disgruntled farmers in France (as in OTL), expect such famous American brands to literally get kicked out of Europe. "Yankees not welcome". There will be a trade war, no doubt. (This fits into the high-tariffs, ban-foreign-imports protectionism that Buchanan wanted anyway.) US-EU trade will dwindle way, way down.


....the results for the rest of the world are hard to interpret. A lot depends on the particulars. The EU will do its utmost to limit Russia, letting in the Baltic states and Poland and Ukraine and everything West of there join up as soon as can reasonably be managed. This hilariously means that there won't be a Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014: there will be EU warheads stationed there, aimed at Moscow! (The EU really faces way more of a direct threat from Russia than the USA does, and therefore will not be able to ever play soft-ball.) Russia will presumably be pretty vengeful about all this, and may turn East, to a Chinese alliance, dragging in all of Central Asia.

This may lead to US-EU rapprochement, unless the USA's isolationism really sticks. Then, the EU must become a fortress power, always watchful, always a bit terrified.

China, in any case, will be weaker. The EU alone will not be able to allow any weakening of its economy with bullshit globalist ambitions. It'll jump on the protectionist band-wagon. China's OTL export-driven upward surge is dead on arrival.

If the USA truly goes isolationist, then I think Canada, Australia and New Zealand will cozy up to the EU, forming a sort of "NATO without the USA". They'll view the USA as an insane hermit kingdom.


As for what becomes of the USA itself... well, it sure won't be the last time that I reference the late John Reilly's work. He wrote some of the more thought-provoking pieces in Alternate History, among other subjects. One of his essays is titled Tokugawa America, and it deals with precisely this subjects.

(You're missed, John. Dearly, dearly missed.)

Hmm.

Not to distract from the OP's focus, but it'd be interesting what the ramifications are for cultural imports and exports, given how the internet would make it easier than ever to communicate with people all over the world. Granted, the globalization of media may be hamstrung by a mix of American isolationism and equally disruptive foreign retaliation.

Images, video clips, and outright piracy notwithstanding, I suspect twenty-first century pop culture will look noticeably different in a world where Americans largely scoff at anime and foreign countries keep Netflix (or its ATL equivalents) out while presumably setting up their own, analogous services.
 
....the results for the rest of the world are hard to interpret. A lot depends on the particulars. The EU will do its utmost to limit Russia, letting in the Baltic states and Poland and Ukraine and everything West of there join up as soon as can reasonably be managed. This hilariously means that there won't be a Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014: there will be EU warheads stationed there, aimed at Moscow! (The EU really faces way more of a direct threat from Russia than the USA does, and therefore will not be able to ever play soft-ball.) Russia will presumably be pretty vengeful about all this, and may turn East, to a Chinese alliance, dragging in all of Central Asia.

I'm not so sure that the EU would be so eager to let Ukraine join due to its chronic corruption problem, at least in the near-term:

corruption-perceptions-index-2016.jpg
 
I'm not so sure that the EU would be so eager to let Ukraine join due to its chronic corruption problem, at least in the near-term:

corruption-perceptions-index-2016.jpg

I suppose high numbers signify a lack of corruption here, whereas low numbers show the exact opposite?
 
I suppose high numbers signify a lack of corruption here, whereas low numbers show the exact opposite?

Yes, exactly. Other than Belarus and the Baltics, the former USSR are the worst offenders in regards to corruption in Europe. Though Georgia in the Caucasus (not shown on this map) is remarkably non-corrupt, being comparable to Poland, Spain, and Portugal.
 
Yes, exactly. Other than Belarus and the Baltics, the former USSR are the worst offenders in regards to corruption in Europe. Though Georgia in the Caucasus (not shown on this map) is remarkably non-corrupt, being comparable to Poland, Spain, and Portugal.

I guess Russia’s not the only one troubled by the former Soviet Union’s legacy, then. :(

Of course, I also wonder what metrics they used to quantify corruption, as well as how “reliable” whatever data they consulted is? Because, somehow, I doubt the elites behind it all are gung-ho on being too transparent if they can help it. ;)
 
I guess Russia’s not the only one troubled by the former Soviet Union’s legacy, then. :(

Of course, I also wonder what metrics they used to quantify corruption, as well as how “reliable” whatever data they consulted is. Because, somehow, I doubt the elites behind it all are gung-ho on being too transparent if they can help it. ;)

You can read more details about these calculations here:


Also, take a look at this map:


a6814db97026f1f6ff962f4512ca6257b77bf92d.webp
 
You can read more details about these calculations here:


Also, take a look at this map:


a6814db97026f1f6ff962f4512ca6257b77bf92d.webp

FWIW, this correlation isn't perfect, but you can see a pattern between this map and the Hajnal Line:


1024px-Hajnal_line.JPG
 
Might corruption perceptions be a two-way street? On the one hand, residents of places ranking high on the corruption perceptions index probably live among stuff objective observers and people from any culture would call corrupt.

On the other hand, it could also equally be a sign of high envy, and readiness to call everything corrupt. "Corruption" could be a synonym for any wealth or power that a normal person of modest means or less sees somebody else has, that they wish they had instead.
 
forces the European countries into a crash military expansion programme
Very interesting disertation.
But as to the quote - in 1991 west European NATO countries still had armies. Hence no need for any crash programmes, but no run down to the parodies they have today.
 
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Fear of Russians will keep the Italians, Greeks, Spanish and Portuguese in line because former Communism is a the doorstep? LOL good luck with that. The only time we got in line was






















COVID-19
 
Also, sorry for quick posting so much, but I rather let the Russians in than obeying orders from Berlin.

WW2 wasn't almost century away yet.
 
Also, sorry for quick posting so much,
Instead of spaming, you can edit your previous post and add any new wisdom that came upon you there.

As to letting the Russian's in instead of following Berlin's Diktat ...
Firstly, in the 1990s Russia is in deep shit and not going anywhere.
Secondly - Russia is proudly a successor to the genocidal USSR. The FRG is a bashful successor to the genocidal 3rd Reich. And the FRG has more money ...
YMMV - I had more relatives murdered by the Soviets than the Germans.
 
I'm not so sure that the EU would be so eager to let Ukraine join due to its chronic corruption problem, at least in the near-term
In OTL, there's the luxury of caring about such things. In an ATL where Europe has to face Russia alone, with the Cold War only barely ended, they will want any buffer zone they can get.


Very interesting disertation.
But as to the quote - in 1991 west European NATO countries still had armies. Hence no need for any crash programmes, but no run down to the parodies they have today.
The European armies were proportionally stronger than today, but still very underwhelming compared to what the USA puts up. We may assume that American "retreat from the world" also means they stop sharing military tech so very readily, so Europe will have to a pretty quick level-up in many regards.


Fear of Russians will keep the Italians, Greeks, Spanish and Portuguese in line because former Communism is a the doorstep? LOL good luck with that.
I am not seeing even the most Europhile following Berlin's order in the 1990s.
Also, sorry for quick posting so much, but I rather let the Russians in than obeying orders from Berlin.
You greatly under-estimate how scared of Russia people were during the '80s, and how scared they would remain without American protection.

Russia may be crap economically, but they are still pretty damn impressive militarily. And if America pulls back completely, then an economically smarting Russia may just decide that the very most classic way out of economic troubles -- conquer and loot neighbouring regions -- is actually very attractive.

The neighbours will understand that, too.


---------------------------------------------------------------


Might corruption perceptions be a two-way street? On the one hand, residents of places ranking high on the corruption perceptions index probably live among stuff objective observers and people from any culture would call corrupt.

On the other hand, it could also equally be a sign of high envy, and readiness to call everything corrupt. "Corruption" could be a synonym for any wealth or power that a normal person of modest means or less sees somebody else has, that they wish they had instead.
I find that official "degree of corruption" comparisons are fairly meaningless. They measure how well or poorly hidden the corruption is, and how much or little formalised it is.

The Netherlands, where I live, score among the lowest in the world when it comes to corruption. Let me tell you about Wim Kok. He was Prime Minister during the '90s. Labour. Called himself a man of the people. He passed legislation favouring the banks, though. After retiring, he joined the board of one of the country's major banks. It made him very rich. One of his successors leading the Labour Party, Wouter Bos, worked hard to liberalise the insurance sector. Perhaps a strange choice for a Labour man? Well, maybe not. Because he joined a big general insurance firm immediately after quitting politics. He then got a cushy job at an NGO, and now he's working for one of the larger health insurance firms. All very well-paid jobs, all semi-governmental or government-funded clubs. In fact, the Upper House of our legislature essentially houses a bunch of part-timers, who all have multiple "side jobs" in cush positions on the board of something or other. Some of them have as many as 30 or 40 of those "side jobs".

None of this is corrupt, of course. Because this is legal. Formalised by law. So it doesn't count. Also, they don't ask for bags of money from bankers to pass banking deregulation. They just accept a nice job ten years later. And of course that job isn't a reward. How could you even think it! No, those ex-politicians are just eminently qualified for the position!

When a criminally under-paid cop in Egypt wants the equivalent of two dollars to let you pass a check-point without any hassle or delay... that's corruption.

When a very rich son of very rich parents, in one of the richest countries on Earth, who went to the most exclusive university where he joined the most selective fraternity and was friends with all the sons of all the big bankers, and spends his entire career serving the interests of the big banks later gets a ludicrously over-paid do-nothing job with the biggest of the big banks... that's not corruption. That's just politics.

That's why Egypt is considered terribly corrupt, and the Netherlands are seen as not corrupt at all.

We're better at hiding it. At making it legal.

That's all.
 
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In OTL, there's the luxury of caring about such things. In an ATL where Europe has to face Russia alone, with the Cold War only barely ended, they will want any buffer zone they can get.

Would the EU have actually viewed post-Soviet Russia as an enemy, though? That I'm not so sure about.
 

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