History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

ATP

Well-known member
Heh. Well, I've corrected it, and various other errors I spotted after the fact. I'm sure several other errors remain.


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It's hard to say. I'm tempted to argue that such nonsense is just modern-day loonie cultism, and that such extravagances will just naturally die out when things "get real", and excesses of any kind become unaffordable. Anyone remotely like Sulla, for certain, would want the elite itself to be reformed, and to make it more responsible and "dignified". So if we get something like a Sullan oligarchy, it'll be pretty austere and unforgiving of nonsense. At least more so than our current, highly "frivolous" times.

On the other hand, look at Egypt in the wake of the Hyksos ravages, at Rome (and Greece) in the latter days of the Hellenistic Era, or at China during the conclusion of the Warring States Period. Hotbeds of not just mad cultism and weird movements, but also of moral decay and all sorts of degeneracies. (In Rome, Sulla couldn't cure that, either. For that matter: neither could Marius, although to be fair, he never really got the chance.)

We may also note that as the Populares broaden their movement, that has the downside of also becoming more open to various gaggles of perhaps not-quite-worthy interlopers. Publius Clodius Pulcher was a populist, after all. That sort of example illustrates that a Marian -- and even a Caesarian -- faction may actually end up accepting various forms of... moral failings... in the name of "keeping everyone in the big tent".

It was Augustus who really cleaned house.

Although, to be fair, I'm pretty sure Caesar would have... if not "gotten rid of", then at least "put aside"... the less savoury types within his own faction, if he'd lived. Similar figures in other civilisations did so as well. (Essentially, a "Caesar" who lives longer saves the "Augustus" the trouble of having to kill a lot of objectionable people.)

...But to actually answer the question: I think certain perversities will be so associated with the establishment (which actively pushed them) that the populists will invariably hate these forever, whereas other perversities may get a blind eye until the very end. In practice, this means that Marius would be the type of man to legislate the compulsive castration of paedophiles, and Sulla would be the type of man to alter that to a death sentence ("more practical"), while Caesar would order the summary execution of "gender loonies"... and Augustus is the sort of man who would have pimps crucified for "corrupting the social order".

All of these men will be stringently opposed to abortion, by the way. If anything is going to go out of style sooner rather than later, it'll be anti-natalism in the West.


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You forget, perhaps, that this option really wasn't possible for the Germans under Hitler. They could have done it under the Kaiser, because back then their economic policies were only kind of stupid. But under Hitler, they could not do this... because they were socialists. Their economy relied on plunder. In international socialism, this is class-plunder. In national socialism, it is race-plunder. To exist, they must rape all neighbours and take all their stuff.

If Hitler had been nice to Slavs, he could have had allies, but his own state would have collapsed due to the lack of plunder. Indeed, his armies would starve, because German production (of everything, including food) was insufficient. So he literally just expected his armies to be like locusts in the East. To eat everything, and make the Slavs starve.

If they left food for the Slavs, they themselves would starve, because der Führer could not actually afford to feed them properly.

(I cannot stress enough that anyone on the right who thinks the Nazis were cool -- or right about anything at all -- is a complete imbecile.)


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The truly crucial thing is that the current generation has lived through the errors of neoconservatism, which advocates the dumbest form of interventionism. This is where @KilroywasNOTHere is perhaps misjudging things a bit, by looking at what is currently the MAGA belief. But you need to understand why it is that belief. Two, three decades of dumb interventionism have simply taught people to hate neocon interventionism.

But now consider what two, three decades of dumb non-interventionism will teach the next generation.

Imagine, for a moment, a fairly bad short-to-mid-term future. Ukraine loses, after Trump cuts all aid. Russia keeps its gains. Rump-Ukraine joins NATO, but is hardly happy. Russia is still fucked up. Its conquests are ruined lands, unprofitable for over a decade. Soon enough, Putin croaks. He leaves behind a wrecked economy with a whole generation dead or maimed. He has no solid succession plan in place. Russia, for all that it has "won", collapses into gangsterism-- like the '90s on steroids. By this time, it has become a total Chinese vassal. Dependent. Controlled. The Chinese sphere now borders on Poland. And on the Eastern end, the retreat of the USA and the evident weakness and discord of NATO inspire the CCP to annex Taiwan. It exerts vast economic pressure to sway Singapore into its orbit. There is no Western response. Not long after, Turkey betrays "weak and useless NATO", and -- funded by China -- commences a streak of conquests. It occupies, most crucially, Cyprus and the Suez Canal. The Chinese alliance system now has a choke-hold on both ends of Eurasia.

We have come to the mid-point of the century. And only now, when the enemy has realised every advantage that it might have dreamed to possess, does it dawn on the Americans how foolish they have been. Eurasia-Africa is a world-island. And the Americas are their counter-island. But the former is much bigger. Has vaster numbers. Has greater quantities of all resources. If it comes to a world war between these two opposing world-islands... the big one wins.

It is on to this stage that a Marius emerges. It is here that he makes his mark. For he is, more than anything, more than the domestic reformer that he can thereafter become, more than all epithets that history may bestow upon him---

He is is the one that beats them back.

It won't be the big world-war. Both sides want to avoid that, for even nominal victory wouyld be hideously costly. No, this is a war fought in the border regions. This Marius will grasp that. He'll go for the Turks. Perhaps for Western Russia. Not China itself. But he'll beat their vassals, and end their choke-hold on one end of Eurasia, so that they may not wholly possess it. Part of that is about resources, and part of it is about real estate, but at the heart of it... it's about survival. It's about getting back to first place. To secure a winning position, or at least a non-losing one. To force a world-order where world war means mutual destruction. And to ensure that, you must deny China the resources held by Western Eurasia, and by Africa. If they possess all of the larger world-island... they win. The smaller world-island loses. The world becomes a Chinese Empire.

I advocate for defeating Russia now, because I see this coming. Because if we go isolationist now, then China wins. Then China's world-system functionally extends into Europe. And we'll have to fight them back to the Urals later. But we beat Russia now, and absorb its Western regions, then that border will at least be settled early on. Fighting the China-backed Turks later on will be all the easier for it.

This is why isolationism is retarded. Your enemies are not isolationist. They are imperialist. They will not relent. What we do not take, they will. Retreat weakens you and strengthens them. That is the core lesson that the coming decades of isolationist dumbassery will have to teach the world.
Isolationism was right - 150 years ago,when nobody could take Euroasia thanks to lack of technology.But you are right,that now it is suicidal for USA.
Sad think is - some Democrats,like FDR seems to think that giving Moscov everything is good thing.Or Truman.
He could provoke war with soviets and create american Empire.Instead,he thought about winning next elections.


About german mistakes - you are right.III Reich should liberate soviets,bit was unable to do so becouse they were not only racist,but racist socialists.
Well,good for us,smart Hitler would win,and i would never be born/my parents would die/ ,and you would either never be born or live in german Europe.
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
Imagine, for a moment, a fairly bad short-to-mid-term future.
Counterargument to this, something historic equivalents didn't have an equivalent parallel for, MAD deterrence.

By which I mean, let's try an altered version of your proposed timeline. Everything plays out right like you described it until;
We have come to the mid-point of the century. And only now, when the enemy has realised every advantage that it might have dreamed to possess, does it dawn on the Americans how foolish they have been. Eurasia-Africa is a world-island. And the Americas are their counter-island. But the former is much bigger. Has vaster numbers. Has greater quantities of all resources. If it comes to a world war between these two opposing world-islands... the big one wins. everyone dies in a thermonuclear apocalypse. Which is why is long as both islands are rational actors, it never will come down to such a war.

It is on to this stage that a Marius emerges. It is here that he makes his mark. For he is, more than anything, more than the domestic reformer that he can thereafter become, more than all epithets that history may bestow upon him---
The problem being, the Optimates aren't rational actors, they're a bunch of deluded neocon psychopaths who think they can win a nuclear war* or that if they delay fighting one now, they'll somehow lose even harder in a future ones.

Cue the Caesar figure. A populist who realizes getting elected on a popular-with-above-half-the-country platform of "let's not commit specieswide suicide" isn't enough, there's still a deepstate swamp of unelected bureaucrats and military-industry megacorps pushing for war and it'd take dictatorial authority and powers to remove them.

TL;DR, the goverment will be overthrown as soon as the consequences of not overthrowing the goverment become less survivable than those of allowing its continued existence.

* Note, their definition of "win" is that they're still alive in their private new zealand bunkers and have stockpiled enough supplies and firepower to eventually come back to rule over any surviving irradated plebs.
Universal Century said:
Honestly, going off all the above plus some— the BoS progenitors actually mutinying and the USGov basically ignoring it, the Enclave seeming to predate the Resource Crisis and Great War, the unstable situation on the US home front, leads me to propose the following:

Not only did the US fire off their nuclear arsenal first, the nuclear launch that ended the Great War was specifically premeditated with the intention of leaving the Enclave in the sole position of strength.

Or, more specifically, it was the plot of an increasingly-desperate oligarchy, realizing that papering over the growing resource crisis was increasingly ineffective at deceiving the US populace, and unrest was growing to the point that the U.S. was about to boil over. Realizing that they would either need to relinquish (or at least relax) their grip, or face global annihilation, they chose the latter, plotting out a strategy that would obliterate every other nation while allowing the members of the Enclave to ride out the apocalypse, emerge back into the world when conditions became conducive to their survival, comfort and ability to conquer. Once the radioactive dust settled, they would be the most powerful industrial and military faction by virtue that they would have been the only group to know a nuclear apocalypse was imminent and play accordingly, allowing them to conquer their former North American playground and beyond and “rebuild America”— without all that pesky democracy, civil rights, and worrying about what the proles thinks. A Global America, run by the wealthy and powerful, for the wealthy and powerful.

An America that would embody, intentionally or not, the proverbial boot stamping on face of mankind forever.
No, it probably won't work and they'll almost certainly be thrown out of the bunkers to make room for their bodyguards' families, but they're potentially dumb enough to try anyway.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Heh. Well, I've corrected it, and various other errors I spotted after the fact. I'm sure several other errors remain.


------------------------------------------




It's hard to say. I'm tempted to argue that such nonsense is just modern-day loonie cultism, and that such extravagances will just naturally die out when things "get real", and excesses of any kind become unaffordable. Anyone remotely like Sulla, for certain, would want the elite itself to be reformed, and to make it more responsible and "dignified". So if we get something like a Sullan oligarchy, it'll be pretty austere and unforgiving of nonsense. At least more so than our current, highly "frivolous" times.

On the other hand, look at Egypt in the wake of the Hyksos ravages, at Rome (and Greece) in the latter days of the Hellenistic Era, or at China during the conclusion of the Warring States Period. Hotbeds of not just mad cultism and weird movements, but also of moral decay and all sorts of degeneracies. (In Rome, Sulla couldn't cure that, either. For that matter: neither could Marius, although to be fair, he never really got the chance.)

We may also note that as the Populares broaden their movement, that has the downside of also becoming more open to various gaggles of perhaps not-quite-worthy interlopers. Publius Clodius Pulcher was a populist, after all. That sort of example illustrates that a Marian -- and even a Caesarian -- faction may actually end up accepting various forms of... moral failings... in the name of "keeping everyone in the big tent".

It was Augustus who really cleaned house.

Although, to be fair, I'm pretty sure Caesar would have... if not "gotten rid of", then at least "put aside"... the less savoury types within his own faction, if he'd lived. Similar figures in other civilisations did so as well. (Essentially, a "Caesar" who lives longer saves the "Augustus" the trouble of having to kill a lot of objectionable people.)

...But to actually answer the question: I think certain perversities will be so associated with the establishment (which actively pushed them) that the populists will invariably hate these forever, whereas other perversities may get a blind eye until the very end. In practice, this means that Marius would be the type of man to legislate the compulsive castration of paedophiles, and Sulla would be the type of man to alter that to a death sentence ("more practical"), while Caesar would order the summary execution of "gender loonies"... and Augustus is the sort of man who would have pimps crucified for "corrupting the social order".

All of these men will be stringently opposed to abortion, by the way. If anything is going to go out of style sooner rather than later, it'll be anti-natalism in the West.


------------------------------------------




You forget, perhaps, that this option really wasn't possible for the Germans under Hitler. They could have done it under the Kaiser, because back then their economic policies were only kind of stupid. But under Hitler, they could not do this... because they were socialists. Their economy relied on plunder. In international socialism, this is class-plunder. In national socialism, it is race-plunder. To exist, they must rape all neighbours and take all their stuff.

If Hitler had been nice to Slavs, he could have had allies, but his own state would have collapsed due to the lack of plunder. Indeed, his armies would starve, because German production (of everything, including food) was insufficient. So he literally just expected his armies to be like locusts in the East. To eat everything, and make the Slavs starve.

If they left food for the Slavs, they themselves would starve, because der Führer could not actually afford to feed them properly.

(I cannot stress enough that anyone on the right who thinks the Nazis were cool -- or right about anything at all -- is a complete imbecile.)


------------------------------------------












The truly crucial thing is that the current generation has lived through the errors of neoconservatism, which advocates the dumbest form of interventionism. This is where @KilroywasNOTHere is perhaps misjudging things a bit, by looking at what is currently the MAGA belief. But you need to understand why it is that belief. Two, three decades of dumb interventionism have simply taught people to hate neocon interventionism.

But now consider what two, three decades of dumb non-interventionism will teach the next generation.

Imagine, for a moment, a fairly bad short-to-mid-term future. Ukraine loses, after Trump cuts all aid. Russia keeps its gains. Rump-Ukraine joins NATO, but is hardly happy. Russia is still fucked up. Its conquests are ruined lands, unprofitable for over a decade. Soon enough, Putin croaks. He leaves behind a wrecked economy with a whole generation dead or maimed. He has no solid succession plan in place. Russia, for all that it has "won", collapses into gangsterism-- like the '90s on steroids. By this time, it has become a total Chinese vassal. Dependent. Controlled. The Chinese sphere now borders on Poland. And on the Eastern end, the retreat of the USA and the evident weakness and discord of NATO inspire the CCP to annex Taiwan. It exerts vast economic pressure to sway Singapore into its orbit. There is no Western response. Not long after, Turkey betrays "weak and useless NATO", and -- funded by China -- commences a streak of conquests. It occupies, most crucially, Cyprus and the Suez Canal. The Chinese alliance system now has a choke-hold on both ends of Eurasia.

We have come to the mid-point of the century. And only now, when the enemy has realised every advantage that it might have dreamed to possess, does it dawn on the Americans how foolish they have been. Eurasia-Africa is a world-island. And the Americas are their counter-island. But the former is much bigger. Has vaster numbers. Has greater quantities of all resources. If it comes to a world war between these two opposing world-islands... the big one wins.

It is on to this stage that a Marius emerges. It is here that he makes his mark. For he is, more than anything, more than the domestic reformer that he can thereafter become, more than all epithets that history may bestow upon him---

He is is the one that beats them back.

It won't be the big world-war. Both sides want to avoid that, for even nominal victory wouyld be hideously costly. No, this is a war fought in the border regions. This Marius will grasp that. He'll go for the Turks. Perhaps for Western Russia. Not China itself. But he'll beat their vassals, and end their choke-hold on one end of Eurasia, so that they may not wholly possess it. Part of that is about resources, and part of it is about real estate, but at the heart of it... it's about survival. It's about getting back to first place. To secure a winning position, or at least a non-losing one. To force a world-order where world war means mutual destruction. And to ensure that, you must deny China the resources held by Western Eurasia, and by Africa. If they possess all of the larger world-island... they win. The smaller world-island loses. The world becomes a Chinese Empire.

I advocate for defeating Russia now, because I see this coming. Because if we go isolationist now, then China wins. Then China's world-system functionally extends into Europe. And we'll have to fight them back to the Urals later. But we beat Russia now, and absorb its Western regions, then that border will at least be settled early on. Fighting the China-backed Turks later on will be all the easier for it.

This is why isolationism is retarded. Your enemies are not isolationist. They are imperialist. They will not relent. What we do not take, they will. Retreat weakens you and strengthens them. That is the core lesson that the coming decades of isolationist dumbassery will have to teach the world.

The leftists have told me that they think that the term pedofile is offensive, the correct term for it is now Biden Buddy.

:whistle: :whistle:
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member


This is a interesting video that talks about the rat Utopia and compares it to our own modern civilization.


Thanks, I'll definitely give that a watch this evening. Without having seen it yet, I vaguely expect that "mouse utopia" refers to the experiment they conducted where they put mice in an overpopulated environment (similar to the population density of human cities), and this caused anxiety, insanity, and all sorts of deviant behaviour in the mice population.

But maybe I'm way off the mark.


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So in terms of macro history, where do men like Larry Fink and Blackrock fit in? Because to my mind, if he’s half as bad as some think, he’s effectively an “Optimate Marcus Licinius Crassus.”

Honestly, I don't think he's that prominent or relevant. I see these types as the meaningless greyfaces who run the established order. If you want a sort of forerunner of the Crassus type, look at Musk and Bezos. Ultra-wealthy, huge ego, irrepressible desire to leave a mark and to be more than "just" a businessman. And especially in the case of Musk: willing to deviate from the establishment line.

Crassus himself was definitely a product of the establishment of the late Republic, and he was a Sullan in his earlier career. But not an orthodox one, and he personally hated Pompeius, while backing Caesar's career. By all accounts, he just genuinely liked Caesar. If he'd gotten along with Pompeius and had haboured a dislike of Caesar instead, he'd have ended up on the Pompeian, ultimately Optimates-aligned side of things.

Another forerunner of such a type, in our days, is... Donald Trump. Instead of aiming to be a space pioneer, he's made his mark by becoming President. Indeed, in ancient Rome, the Gracchi were scions of wealth, who chose a political career based on a populist agenda. In certain ways, some of what Crassus ended up doing was derived from their intial example.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
Thanks, I'll definitely give that a watch this evening. Without having seen it yet, I vaguely expect that "mouse utopia" refers to the experiment they conducted where they put mice in an overpopulated environment (similar to the population density of human cities), and this caused anxiety, insanity, and all sorts of deviant behaviour in the mice population.

But maybe I'm way off the mark.

Pretty much right on the money. There are a lot of concerning parallels between modern civilization and the mouse utopia.
 

gral

Well-known member


This is a interesting video that talks about the rat Utopia and compares it to our own modern civilization.

I had thought Whatifalthist had grown somewhat blackpilled in his latest videos; this one is the most blackpilled I've seen him.

That being said, it sure is possible things go as wrong as he fears. I don't think they will(but sure they will be grim), but it's possible.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
I had thought Whatifalthist had grown somewhat blackpilled in his latest videos; this one is the most blackpilled I've seen him.

That being said, it sure is possible things go as wrong as he fears. I don't think they will(but sure they will be grim), but it's possible.

He seems to be of the opinion that we are headed for a fascist dictatorship. I can definitely understand why he would make that prediction. Hopefully things don't go that wrong but its hard to say.
 

gral

Well-known member
He seems to be of the opinion that we are headed for a fascist dictatorship. I can definitely understand why he would make that prediction. Hopefully things don't go that wrong but its hard to say.
That was the tune of his latest videos, yes, but on this one, he's talking about all-out societal collapse. Reading about the Mouse Utopia(not Disneyland) scared him on a fundamental level, I think.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
That was the tune of his latest videos, yes, but on this one, he's talking about all-out societal collapse. Reading about the Mouse Utopia(not Disneyland) scared him on a fundamental level, I think.


I can definitely understand that fear when one looks at the parallels between the rat utopia and modern civilization. To be honest if there isn't some serious changes politically then a societal collapse is unavoidable.
 

Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
People throw around the term "collapse" a little too willy nilly. We are not facing the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, let alone the "shit show of 1200BC thereabouts."

We are facing difficult times however.
 

Carrot of Truth

War is Peace
People throw around the term "collapse" a little too willy nilly. We are not facing the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, let alone the "shit show of 1200BC thereabouts."

We are facing difficult times however.

Dude the left has become a literal death cult, This shit is not sustainable and if it just keeps on going as is then society will collapse.
 

Blasterbot

Well-known member
People throw around the term "collapse" a little too willy nilly. We are not facing the Fall of the Western Roman Empire, let alone the "shit show of 1200BC thereabouts."

We are facing difficult times however.
it is an assessment of our current trajectory without shifting. there are problems with presuming there will be no unexpected reactions when building your mental models. however it is a likely result west is facing a lot of issues. east is facing a lot of issues. a collapse is likely if people don't pull their heads out of their asses. but the left will double down, the establishment is more concerned with lining their pockets than maintaining their power structure for the future, and the grillbros will only move when they have experienced enough hardship that staying out of things is no longer an option. such is life.
 

Simonbob

Well-known member
it is an assessment of our current trajectory without shifting. there are problems with presuming there will be no unexpected reactions when building your mental models

Yup.

But, things are never like that. There's always people who will respond, in ways that will change things.


It's why, when the asked all sorts of folk, ranging from Sci-fi authors to top academics, what the future would be like from the 1920's, they got all sorts of responses, and all of them were wrong.


The world is too big, the factions too many, to the tech changes too many, the secrets too inconsitant. The future's beyond our grasp, as it should be.
 
Yup.

But, things are never like that. There's always people who will respond, in ways that will change things.


It's why, when the asked all sorts of folk, ranging from Sci-fi authors to top academics, what the future would be like from the 1920's, they got all sorts of responses, and all of them were wrong.


The world is too big, the factions too many, to the tech changes too many, the secrets too inconsitant. The future's beyond our grasp, as it should be.

then why do we waste so much of our time talking about it?
 

Lord Sovereign

The resident Britbong
A while back on this very thread, I believe it was mentioned one of the really important aspects of a “High Culture” is not just its heartlands, but the frontier. It is the marcher state that is able to approach all this wonderful culture with a hint of pragmatism (they have to be pragmatic due to enemies pressing on the border). Thereafter, the marcher state grows so strong that it ultimately surpasses the heartlands (Rome and Greece, Qin and the other states, Carthage and Phoenicia, etc), if I recall correctly.

Taking that into account, we can somewhat apply it to even the Islamic world. Because whilst the initial Caliphates gained great glory they usually fell apart soon after. A true and long lasting Islamic Empire was ultimately forged in the frontier of the Islamic world, who won its long war against the last vestiges of Rome and would rise to utterly eclipse Old Arabia.

Am I calling the Turks the “Romans” of the Islamic World?

Yes, I think I am. Of course, with Islam being Islam, they got through their time in the sun a little quicker than other empires did, but I think my point still stands as the Ottoman Empire reigned for roughly five centuries.

Edit: To really add to this point…the Turks effectively won Muhammed’s eight hundred year long funeral games.
 
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