History Western Civilization, Rome and Cyclical History

No, you want to be a whiny bitch because you have a stick up your ass about certain things. Don't make it other people's problem. Feel free to start a "cyclical history is dumb" thread. I'll be sure not to bother you there.

This thread is for discussing the subject itself, not for bitching about it because you hate it.
No, this thread is about 'cyclical history', and that means evidence against said theory is very valid to post here.

Otherwise you may as well call it the Rome Fanboying Thread, instead.

Edit: I'll even give some links.


 
No, this thread is about 'cyclical history', and that means evidence against said theory is very valid to post here.

Otherwise you may as well call it the Rome Fanboying Thread, instead.

Edit: I'll even give some links.


Bacle in this thread you are 90 percent correct and Skallgrim is huffing his own farts. But some of your sources are off.

The first one I can’t read all of it. I think you have to pay, second it said something about not all nations are doomed to decay and fall? That is false everything in the material collapses because it is imperfect. Unless you think the US will exist 1000 years from now 40.000 years? What about a billion? It will eventually die both the good and bad.
 
This topic is a farce that does no one in society, no matter their politics, any good.

Rome fanboys don't like when people point out that you cannot use Rome as an effective predictive model for the modern world or any modern nation.

And I can very much come into this thread with tons of info and points to show how the 'cyclical history' obsession has actively hurt Right wing parties across the world, by giving them false expectations and false hopes.

You just want people who will indulge in Rome fanboyism and not hear anything pointing out why that's dumb.
Except you can. The only thing that is different is that collapse of modern civilization will be far worse than what has happened to Rome. It is rather unclear in fact if there will be anything left to salvage, or we will be forced to start from nothing.

But collapse it will, especially since it is rather obvious that we have learned absolutely nothing from history to begin with.
 
Anyway, I was writing a response to an actual ongoing thread of discussion here, before the deliberate malicious derailing, so I'll get back to that. People who actually want to discuss the subject instead of yabbering on how much they hate the actual topic of this thread-- feel free to participate in getting back on topic.




A thing I have come to mull over, in these turns of civilisations, is that the eighth and ninth centuries present a somewhat unique moment which really impacted how the West would turn out.

As has been stated, Charlemagne is the founder king of a new (ish) Europe.

Yes, it is a time of a great pivot. The formation of a High Culture has been likened to the process of forming a disrinct statue out of a great piece of stone. The art of sculpture, after all, is "removing that which should not be there".

Charlemagne put the great slab of stone in place, and carved out the rough shape of the thing. It defined the contours of the future. And he did this, naturally, in reaction to the world in which he found himself. Had that world been different in some significant way, the critical -- foundational -- moment of the West would presumably be different, also.

Of course (and this is what the short-sighted fail to really understand), the course of civilisational history would not be different. If anything, the "person" walking on that road would be different. We'd be another West, perhaps unrecognisable in many ways, but still traversing the same cycle of history.


Yet even in his own time he brushes up against the remnant of an older Europe (one that came before even the Romans), and as I understand he worried about those strange pagans in their dragon headed longships. Not too long after he dies of course, the Viking incursions become ever larger and more vicious with more than a few young kingdoms diminished by them or outright destroyed.

Of course the Northmen eventually become part of this new Christian European sphere, but the impact this last hurrah of old pagan Europe had shook the foundations of the world. Had the Vikings never set sail in their longships, how different would the world be?

In many ways, Charlemagne's course of action was shaped by the Frankish struggles against (and victory over) the Frisians and Saxons and Thuringians. These, and especially the Saxons, had quite strong ties to Scandinavia. The Saxons were even blood-bound to the Danes, during this time. Their alliance was very robust.

In essence, Frisians were always rather piratical (being not entirely unlike Vikings themselves), and the Saxons were functionally "land-Vikings". Charlemagne defined himself in quelling this threat to the Frankish hegemony, and from there the continuation of this same overall struggle changed its main dimension and became "the Viking period" defined by sea-raids from afar.

Of course, this is pretty hard to change. If the peoples involved aren't such violent anarchic dicks (beause let's face it, they were), then Charlemagne can far more easily annex the relevant regions. It won't take decades. In fact, it's conceivably completed by the time of his birth.

Consequence: Charlemagne can focus his efforts on the South, and his Empire takes on a bit more of a "(Western) Roman" shape. It still falls apart later on (early feudalism couldn't effectively sustain an empire of that size), but the lines of division would almost certainly be different. (They shifted ad hoc in OTL.) My suspicion is that you'd get a Germanic (but more thoroughly and peacefully Christianised) North covering the Low Countries and Germany/Austria (and probably a chunk of OTL North-Western France), and a more Romance / Neo-Roman South covering most of France, most or all of Italy, and whatever much of Iberia he could have reconquered thanks to having his time free to spend on that. The reconquista would start very early, and would presumably also be completed much earlier.

In the North, the "magical change" I've suggested here would - by default -- nix the Vikings, too. If the Frisians and Saxons are more interested in commerce than raiding, then so will the Scandinavians be of that bent. (If they are not, then the Frisians and Saxons can't afford to be less aggressive.) Which implies that the Germanic North is more peaceful, more connected, more inclined towards a Hansa-like trade network, and almost certainly set to be entirely Christianised (and peacefully so!) centuries ahead of schedule.

That's super interesting. I have no idea what the POD could be, but it's fascinating.

At the same time, what @Poe said about England and France is very accurate. England would be tied into the Germanic trade network, and wouldn't be easily centralised. it would be a collection of small states. Indeed, all of Germanic Europe would pretty much be "HRE-meets-Super-Hansa". France, meanwhile, would be less central to the Southern realm than some might imagine. Indeed, it would not yet be centralised, and some key incentives for its OTL centralisation would be gone. With France and Italy united under one crown, the symbolic importance of Rome (and its heritage) is more important, too. Paris may only ever be a regional capital, here.

Russia, minus Vikings, might be interesting. Although... Germanic merchants may end up having a greater influence than Germanic raiders, tying ATL Russia (or Novgorod/Neugard, at any rate) more closely into that High Culture's sphere. Coversely, "Pontic" Russia might still be more closely tied to the Eastern Roman Empire. That's hard to predict.



...It strikes me that a potential POD would be that Arianism prevails among the Franks, and consequently spreads to the Frisians, Saxons, Thuringians, Scandinavians etc. This would require a POD way back when, meaning you get Alt-Charlemagne by default, but that's workable. The basic gist of the historical process remains the same. Point is: these Northern Europeans are all Arians. (As opposed to Aryans, which they are not. Lookin' at you, Adolf!) The Germanic peoples generally converted to Arianism with creater ease, so that might make the early conversion plausible.

The South of Europe is still (gonna-be-)Catholic, while the South-East is obviously (gonna-be-)Orthodox. So the result here could easily be a Europe of "three Christianities", divided along political lines that roughly co-incide with the religious ones. There may even be three Emperors. (Alternatively, the 'restored Western Emperor' and the Eastern Emperor might perpetuate the fiction that they are the direct continuation of Rome's dual set-up. And the Northern case of "our own Emperor" is weakest, so they msy profess lip service to the Western one-- you know, on the basis of "we promise to always do as he asks, and he promises to never ask".)

The Western civilisation of this world probably defines itself more explicitly as "yeah, we're totaly Rome reborn!" -- but in practice, of course they're not really. The Germanic part is actually less Roman than in OTL, even as the South of Europe is indeed a bit more Roman. The imperial idea, however, is more of a direct reconstruction. That my well have political consequences later.



In short: fascinating to speculate, but I find it hard to work out a plausible scenario that really makes this happen. It's more of a pure thought experiment.
 
Except you can. The only thing that is different is that collapse of modern civilization will be far worse than what has happened to Rome. It is rather unclear in fact if there will be anything left to salvage, or we will be forced to start from nothing.

But collapse it will, especially since it is rather obvious that we have learned absolutely nothing from history to begin with.
Not necessarily.

The collapse of Rome was not per-ordained either, and neither is the collapse of any other nation.

Also, our tech is much, much better at feeding massive amounts of people, even in marginal conditions, compared to Rome. Rome didn't have orbital assets to track their enemies and domestic discontents, and never had nukes.

Nukes alone ensure a collapse won't be allowed to happen the way you expect, because loose nukes are a nightmare for pretty much everyone and are worth the resources to ensure the people who handle the nukes will be the last ones to starve.

And we have leaned from Rome; we don't use lead as a sweetener, we don't do gladiator games, and we know far, far more about the world than Rome ever did.
 
Not necessarily.

The collapse of Rome was not per-ordained either, and neither is the collapse of any other nation.

Also, our tech is much, much better at feeding massive amounts of people, even in marginal conditions, compared to Rome. Rome didn't have orbital assets to track their enemies and domestic discontents, and never had nukes.

Nukes alone ensure a collapse won't be allowed to happen the way you expect, because loose nukes are a nightmare for pretty much everyone and are worth the resources to ensure the people who handle the nukes will be the last ones to starve.

And we have leaned from Rome; we don't use lead as a sweetener, we don't do gladiator games, and we know far, far more about the world than Rome ever did.
Bacle please answer this are you claiming that America is eternal? It will never end until the heat death of the universe? Because thats what it sounds like you are saying. The Soviets collapsed and they were a nuclear power. ALL nations eventually collapse. The good ones just take a long time.
 
Not necessarily.

The collapse of Rome was not per-ordained either, and neither is the collapse of any other nation.

Also, our tech is much, much better at feeding massive amounts of people, even in marginal conditions, compared to Rome. Rome didn't have orbital assets to track their enemies and domestic discontents, and never had nukes.

Nukes alone ensure a collapse won't be allowed to happen the way you expect, because loose nukes are a nightmare for pretty much everyone and are worth the resources to ensure the people who handle the nukes will be the last ones to starve.

And we have leaned from Rome; we don't use lead as a sweetener, we don't do gladiator games, and we know far, far more about the world than Rome ever did.
Collapse doesn't happen because of knowledge or lack of. Collapse happens when civilization gets out of the step with reality, which can be caused by external causes, or internal ones.

Collapse of Rome was not pre-ordained, true - at least not that it will happen the way it did. And neither is collapse of the West. But unless something seriously changes in our mentality and way of thinking, we will collapse, and soon. We already are in the process of collapse.

Yes, our tech is much better at feeding massive amounts of people. Guess what? That doesn't matter, because our problems are different from those of Rome.

And nukes change nothing. When a society is collapsing from within, no amount of intervention from without can save it.

Yes, we are not making the same mistakes as Rome. Instead we are making all the new ones.

Details are different, but the pattern is still the same.
 
No, this thread is about 'cyclical history', and that means evidence against said theory is very valid to post here.

Otherwise you may as well call it the Rome Fanboying Thread, instead.

Edit: I'll even give some links.



We have actually had that talk before.

First of all America is not in the Imperial phase of civilization something we have been going over in this thread numerous times. If your looking for an equivlent were in the brothers Grachi phase of things.

Second when Rome, when China, and other civilizations were in their modern period they said much the same thing, were different were special and they were proven wrong. Because were not just comparing america to rome, but comparing it to other states that were historically in the same position.

Because Rome is just our name for it, its a role, but the instrements change but the song remains the same.
 
Collapse doesn't happen because of knowledge or lack of. Collapse happens when civilization gets out of the step with reality, which can be caused by external causes, or internal ones.

Collapse of Rome was not pre-ordained, true - at least not that it will happen the way it did. And neither is collapse of the West. But unless something seriously changes in our mentality and way of thinking, we will collapse, and soon. We already are in the process of collapse.

Yes, our tech is much better at feeding massive amounts of people. Guess what? That doesn't matter, because our problems are different from those of Rome.

And nukes change nothing. When a society is collapsing from within, no amount of intervention from without can save it.

Yes, we are not making the same mistakes as Rome. Instead we are making all the new ones.

Details are different, but the pattern is still the same.
Thank you for admitting the US is facing a different set of issues than Rome did.

Yes, we are making our own mistakes; that's part and parcel of civilization.

We aren't going to collapse for anything short of Yellowstone going off, and even that might not actually cause the US to collapse, even if many fewer people will be living here.
We have actually had that talk before.

First of all America is not in the Imperial phase of civilization something we have been going over in this thread numerous times. If your looking for an equivlent were in the brothers Grachi phase of things.

Second when Rome, when China, and other civilizations were in their modern period they said much the same thing, were different were special and they were proven wrong. Because were not just comparing america to rome, but comparing it to other states that were historically in the same position.

Because Rome is just our name for it, its a role, but the instrements change but the song remains the same.
The is no Gracchi brother or Caesar coming, stop trying to make people expect them or look to modern politicians as analogs.

And if you truly want a nation to compare the US to, it's not Rome, it's France, and what number Republic are they on now?

We may end up with a 2nd American Republic, but we are not going to collapse.
 
Thank you for admitting the US is facing a different set of issues than Rome did.

Yes, we are making our own mistakes; that's part and parcel of civilization.

We aren't going to collapse for anything short of Yellowstone going off, and even that might not actually cause the US to collapse, even if many fewer people will be living here.
You got the dressing right but completely missed the point.

Yes, US are facing a different sent of issues than Rome did.

That doesn't mean US aren't going to collapse, or that all lessons of Rome are irrelevant.

History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. As I said: details have changed, but pattern has remained.

Capisci?
 
You got the dressing right but completely missed the point.

Yes, US are facing a different sent of issues than Rome did.

That doesn't mean US aren't going to collapse, or that all lessons of Rome are irrelevant.

History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. As I said: details have changed, but pattern has remained.

Capisci?
And as the quote I put up from elsewhere pointed out, we are making up a lot of new verse's that were never in that rhyme before.

So no, the pattern does not remain the same, the 'rhyme' doesn't stay the same, and we put blinders on our thinking when we try to use Rome for prediction and pattern recognition in the modern day.

As I have said, France is a much more useful analog for the US to work with, both do to historic and modern cultural connections with France, because of how our American Revolution led to the French Revolution, and because France is another nuclear power with CVN and a modern 'empire' across the globe.
 
Thank you for admitting the US is facing a different set of issues than Rome did.

Yes, we are making our own mistakes; that's part and parcel of civilization.

We aren't going to collapse for anything short of Yellowstone going off, and even that might not actually cause the US to collapse, even if many fewer people will be living here.

The is no Gracchi brother or Caesar coming, stop trying to make people expect them or look to modern politicians as analogs.

And if you truly want a nation to compare the US to, it's not Rome, it's France, and what number Republic are they on now?

We may end up with a 2nd American Republic, but we are not going to collapse.
But that is a collapse kinda. I mean the Roman Republic fell/collapsed and in it's place came the Empire.
 
And as the quote I put up from elsewhere pointed out, we are making up a lot of new verse's that were never in that rhyme before.
Such as? Because there is nothing that has changed about human nature itself.
So no, the pattern does not remain the same, the 'rhyme' doesn't stay the same, and we put blinders on our thinking when we try to use Rome for prediction and pattern recognition in the modern day.
Why? Because that sounds like wishful thinking to me.
As I have said, France is a much more useful analog for the US to work with, both do to historic and modern cultural connections with France, because of how our American Revolution led to the French Revolution, and because France is another nuclear power with CVN and a modern 'empire' across the globe.
And Rome has had its own share of French revolutions. So why would France be a good model but Rome not?
 
Bacle woke up today and chose violence I mean Shitposting.

Bacle we may not use lead in our food but the overwhelming majority of people do not eat healthy in the slightest. there are loads of additives in foods that we are probobly gonna find out cause cancer in a few decades. that isn't getting into anything related to plastics. that isn't getting into birth control and other medicines seeping into the water supply.

We don't have Gladiator games true. but we do got loads of circuses going to distract the masses in the hopes that they will think everything is fine. Video games and garbage tier propaganda and so much porn pushed on the masses who check out so long as they are entertained and can afford to eat.

Nukes aren't gonna stop a civil war. you are so off base on this it isn't even funny. It would be the death knell of a nation to use such on their own soil.

Technology may have changed but the people using it haven't in the slightest. this means you can learn from how people have acted in the past and learn from it.
 
Such as? Because there is nothing that has changed about human nature itself.
Human society, human tech, and human knowledge have very much changed since the time of Rome.

'Human nature' does not cause Republics or Empires to rise and fall most of the time, it is the climate that pushes collapse of civilization 90% of the time, and most of the time the climate disruption is caused by massive volcano's in the tropics or Iceland.

Though now we also know about Yellowstone, and well, that could collapse far more than just the US if it goes and we aren't ready for it.
Why? Because that sounds like wishful thinking to me.
It only sounds like wishful thinking to your reactionary politics.

To most normal people, not absorbed in the 'cyclical history' narrative or reactionary narratives, the differences are self-explanatory.

I've explained again and again how the society the US has today is nothing at all like Rome, either the Republic or Empire phases, and even put some links up to show how others are able to dissect and deconstruct the obsession with pretending that the US and Rome are analog through time.
And Rome has had its own share of French revolutions. So why would France be a good model but Rome not?
Because France still exists as a major power, with a society not dissimilar to the US, and with multiple connections between the US and France through our history.

France has also survived as a nation through many governmental transitions between Republic and Monarchy and street chaos.

So it shows how to survive hard times, IN MODERN TIMES, instead of 'collapse' like Rome did.
 
Bacle woke up today and chose violence I mean Shitposting.

Bacle we may not use lead in our food but the overwhelming majority of people do not eat healthy in the slightest. there are loads of additives in foods that we are probobly gonna find out cause cancer in a few decades. that isn't getting into anything related to plastics. that isn't getting into birth control and other medicines seeping into the water supply.

We don't have Gladiator games true. but we do got loads of circuses going to distract the masses in the hopes that they will think everything is fine. Video games and garbage tier propaganda and so much porn pushed on the masses who check out so long as they are entertained and can afford to eat.

Nukes aren't gonna stop a civil war. you are so off base on this it isn't even funny. It would be the death knell of a nation to use such on their own soil.

Technology may have changed but the people using it haven't in the slightest. this means you can learn from how people have acted in the past and learn from it.
You can learn from Rome's mistakes, never said that's a bad thing.

What I said is those who keep trying to treat the US and Rome as analogues are doing themselves and wider society on the Right a disservice, due to the expectations and limits it places on thinking about how to handle modern problems.

Like those who kept trying to turn Trump into an American Caesar.

I mean fuck, with all the Roman fanboys in here, it feels maybe some of you should just slap Caesar's Legion Bull flags on your PFPs.

Because Roman fanboys sometimes feel like they really want the US to go the way of Rome, just to make it so they are 'right'.
 
Human society, human tech, and human knowledge have very much changed since the time of Rome.

'Human nature' does not cause Republics or Empires to rise and fall most of the time, it is the climate that pushes collapse of civilization 90% of the time, and most of the time the climate disruption is caused by massive volcano's in the tropics or Iceland.

Though now we also know about Yellowstone, and well, that could collapse far more than just the US if it goes and we aren't ready for it.
Yes, they have changed.

And they also have not.

As I said: details change, substance stays the same. Same shit in a different package.
It only sounds like wishful thinking to your reactionary politics.

To most normal people, not absorbed in the 'cyclical history' narrative or reactionary narratives, the differences are self-explanatory.

I've explained again and again how the society the US has today is nothing at all like Rome, either the Republic or Empire phases, and even put some links up to show how others are able to dissect and deconstruct the obsession with pretending that the US and Rome are analog through time.
Cyclical history is a fact. It is "constant progress" that is wishful thinking.

US society today is absolutely similar to that of Rome. In fact, every Western society is fundamentally similar to Roman society of Diocletian. We have not had any fundamental advancements in society or governance since the time of Diocletian; all changes had been merely minor improvements or even just aesthetic changes that were then blown up way beyond their actual importance by overexcited toddlers writing history books.
Because France still exists as a major power, with a society not dissimilar to the US, and with multiple connections between the US and France through our history.

France has also survived as a nation through many governmental transitions between Republic and Monarchy and street chaos.

So it shows how to survive hard times, IN MODERN TIMES, instead of 'collapse' like Rome did.
Rome has done all of that as well, and for far longer than France did.

The only major difference between the two is that France hasn't been subject to mass immigration from its formation until, well, end of World War 2.
 
Like those who kept trying to turn Trump into an American Caesar.

Anybody who says that is wrong, that's for sure.

The suggestion here is he's more like an earlier figure in Rome, who tried to rejuvinate Rome and failed, because he stuck to the rules and his enemies didn't.

Much like the current Deep State is using lawfare against him, and imprisioning those who support him. And Trump has no real answer to the illegal actions that are aimed at him. Unless he breaks the rules himself, and that would make him "Caesar", and it's not in his mindset.


Similar actions, similar circumstances, similar expected results.
 
Yes, they have changed.

And they also have not.

As I said: details change, substance stays the same. Same shit in a different package.
No, no it's not, and you dismiss the details because they show how wrong your supposition actually is.
Cyclical history is a fact. It is "constant progress" that is wishful thinking.

US society today is absolutely similar to that of Rome. In fact, every Western society is fundamentally similar to Roman society of Diocletian. We have not had any fundamental advancements in society or governance since the time of Diocletian; all changes had been merely minor improvements or even just aesthetic changes that were then blown up way beyond their actual importance by overexcited toddlers writing history books.
No, this is you wanting to push your own reactionary view of society and the world as the 'norm' things are viewed from, when they simply aren't.

And you notice I never said anything about 'constant progress' either.

There are options besides the two nuttiest ends of the political horseshoe and their views of the world.
Rome has done all of that as well, and for far longer than France did.

The only major difference between the two is that France hasn't been subject to mass immigration from its formation until, well, end of World War 2.
Rome also no longer exists as a empire, France does, and actually has enough connections to US culture to be a useful for comparison.

France also exists in the world of modern weapons, social paradigms, and knowledge, where as Rome very much didn't.

And France has had a 'cycle of history' of Republic/Empire that is rather well fucking documented, and that US existed in/worked with (Louisiana Purchase says hi), yet you all want to compare the US to Rome, ignoring over a 1000 years of time and cultural changes.
Anybody who says that is wrong, that's for sure.

The suggestion here is he's more like an earlier figure in Rome, who tried to rejuvinate Rome and failed, because he stuck to the rules and his enemies didn't.

Much like the current Deep State is using lawfare against him, and imprisioning those who support him. And Trump has no real answer to the illegal actions that are aimed at him. Unless he breaks the rules himself, and that would make him "Caesar", and it's not in his mindset.


Similar actions, similar circumstances, similar expected results.
Some wanted him to be Caesar, then when shit got fucked on Jan 6th, decided he's more Gracchi brother, because they cannot let go of their obsession with using Rome and US as analogues for each other.
 
Anybody who says that is wrong, that's for sure.

The suggestion here is he's more like an earlier figure in Rome, who tried to rejuvinate Rome and failed, because he stuck to the rules and his enemies didn't.

Much like the current Deep State is using lawfare against him, and imprisioning those who support him. And Trump has no real answer to the illegal actions that are aimed at him. Unless he breaks the rules himself, and that would make him "Caesar", and it's not in his mindset.


Similar actions, similar circumstances, similar expected results.

Trump is most defiantly not Ceasar or a Ceasar like figure.

At his core Trump wants to reform the american system so it will function better for the people who live there. In a more flexible and less cultish era his reforms would quite easily pass. Immigration would be more limited for a couple decades the country would have time enough to assimulate the current immigrants, and the people given bones.

He would then most likely mostly forgotten a couple decades hence, but the circumstances changed. The elite became much less flexible, and much more cultish. So convinced of their moral superiority and inherit greatness that they refuse any compromise so obviously incompetent and corrupt that they just spur people to dislike them even more.

Thus Trump is a Grachi like figure the one who starts the populist ball rolling. I very much doubt he's going to pull it off his goal of reform. I think the culture of our leading class is to toxic for that to be possible. I think he will most likely be murdered which will lead to more like him in the future.

A ceasar like figure arrises when people give up on reforming a system and just tear it down to get at the rot, it is not a nice process at all.
 

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