Russian-Ukrainian-Polish Eternal Friendship Thread

Agent23 said:
40+ is hardly prime fighting age, the cap on conscription age for example is 35, the young and able-bodied don't really care.
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There is less of the young in total, so they would need to have incredibly high support to be the majority of supporters.
Agent23 said:
This is the whole of Ukraine, so as I said, the Russian majority areas will probably have much smaller minorities willing to fight.
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Probably... But still plenty. Also the only areas that have a proper Russian majority aren't controlled by Ukraine anymore anyway.
 
Agent23 said:
Yeah, he is overestimating the Ukrainian desire to fight a partizan war and under-estimating the pro-Russia feelings in Eastern Ukraine.
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The pro-russians in the east have moved in mass to Donbas and even then, you really have no way of proving one way or another how hard they will resist or for how long. In general, the population in the east's opinion matters little, as this is an all-out military war between states and those areas will be swiftly taken by Russia anyway.


It's possible that if Russia drives to the Dneiper both the U.S. and NATO will intervene militarily and with Ukrainian permission flood western Ukraine with troops and then proceed to attempt to mediate the conflict.


If that happens after peace is maintained Russia could very well experience a 'troubles' or Vietnam style situation were the rump Ukraine which would then be under NATO protection could then funnel in random arms in and supply rebel/terrorist cells with arms causing headaches down the road.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
If that happens after peace is maintained Russia could very well experience a 'troubles' or Vietnam style situation were the rump Ukraine which would then be under NATO protection could then funnel in random arms in and supply rebel/terrorist cells with arms causing headaches down the road.
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Except that those areas are strongly pro-Russian and the massive corruption in Ukraine will make it less likely that it will be able to organize anything of substance.

Sure, Russia will be in a Vietnam-style situation, it will hold the equivalent of the North, with the weak, US-controlled south trying to play tough.
 
Agent23 said:
Tucker: Does Biden want war?

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Does Tucker Carlson want to kick the Baltic countries out of NATO?

Rusty Shackleford said:
The pro-russians in the east have moved in mass to Donbas and even then, you really have no way of proving one way or another how hard they will resist or for how long. In general, the population in the east's opinion matters little, as this is an all-out military war between states and those areas will be swiftly taken by Russia anyway.


It's possible that if Russia drives to the Dneiper both the U.S. and NATO will intervene militarily and with Ukrainian permission flood western Ukraine with troops and then proceed to attempt to mediate the conflict.


If that happens after peace is maintained Russia could very well experience a 'troubles' or Vietnam style situation were the rump Ukraine which would then be under NATO protection could then funnel in random arms in and supply rebel/terrorist cells with arms causing headaches down the road.
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It would ironically be in the US's interest to have Russia conquer all of Ukraine since that would mean that there would be much more Ukrainian nationalist troublemakers for Russia to deal with. Cynical but true.
 
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WolfBear said:
Does Tucker Carlson want to kick the Baltic countries out of NATO?
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He does and I have heard a few other Conservative commentators say we shouldn't defend the Baltic Nato members if Russia attacks them. My view is this when you give your word you give your word. You don't weasel out of an agreement you made if the person or group you made it with have kept up their end of the bargain.
 
Sailor.X said:
He does and I have heard a few other Conservative commentators say we shouldn't defend the Baltic Nato members if Russia attacks them. My view is this when you give your word you give your word. You don't weasel out of an agreement you made if the person or group you made it with have kept up their end of the bargain.
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What about if honoring your word could result in a nuclear war, though?
 
Husky_Khan said:
Could or couldn't.

If not the Baltics then Poland, or Taiwan? Japan? Guam? Alaska? *Shrug*
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Could.

Poland would have to be defended, but it's also much easier to defend than the Baltic countries are. The Baltic countries are almost completely surrounded by Russia and Belarus on land. Taiwan I'm not sure should be defended; it would depend on China's strength relative to the US. Japan would have to be defended, as would Guam and Alaska, no doubt.
 
WolfBear said:
Does Tucker Carlson want to kick the Baltic countries out of NATO?
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Did you actually listen to what he said?

Honestly, at this point, the Ukrainians don't think they will be invaded, the EU doesn't think they will be invaded and doesn't care aside for a few countries with a hate boner for Russia.

In the very unlikely event that the regime in Kiev forces their hand, russia will probably just secure the breakaway republics and Ukraine's coast, all areas that are pretty heavily pro-Russian already.
 
Agent23 said:
Except that those areas are strongly pro-Russian and the massive corruption in Ukraine will make it less likely that it will be able to organize anything of substance.
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It only took three guys to pull off the OKC bombing and need I remind you how much social upheaval it caused.

I am not saying a rifle behind every blade of grass here, but a long period of small scale scale action committed by angered Ukranians who were pissed at relatives deaths. Either within the Ukraine or crossing the border into Russia and commiting them there.
 
Agent23 said:
In the very unlikely event that the regime in Kiev forces their hand, russia will probably just secure the breakaway republics and Ukraine's coast, all areas that are pretty heavily pro-Russian already.
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The coastal areas are no longer uniformly pro-Russia:

In the first round in 2019, Yuri Boyko only won either pluralities or majorities in the easternmost parts of Ukraine as well as in the western Budjak:

2019-ukraine-raions-english.png
 
WolfBear said:
The coastal areas are no longer uniformly pro-Russia:

In the first round in 2019, Yuri Boyko only won either pluralities or majorities in the easternmost parts of Ukraine as well as in the western Budjak:

2019-ukraine-raions-english.png
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Nice cherry picking, I have posted several other maps that tell a very different story, though.
IMO it is sage to say that everything as far west as the Dnieper river will prefer to become part of Russia.
Also, Zelensky wasn't a nationalist, he was campaigning on a platform for peace and reform, e.g. somebody who might maybe give the pro-Russia parts of the country more autonomy.

Honestly, do people here even look at what I psot before they post the same old stuff over and over.
The poles and the US deep-state koolaid drinkers both have a massive axe to grind, and I see no reason why I should interact with them.
 
Rusty Shackleford said:
It only took three guys to pull off the OKC bombing and need I remind you how much social upheaval it caused.

I am not saying a rifle behind every blade of grass here, but a long period of small scale scale action committed by angered Ukranians who were pissed at relatives deaths. Either within the Ukraine or crossing the border into Russia and commiting them there.
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Those angry Ukrainians will be surrounded by just as many angry Russians who have had their cities shelled and relatives killed, if they start trying to play insurgency they will be yeeted out of the place in short order.
 
Sailor.X said:
He does and I have heard a few other Conservative commentators say we shouldn't defend the Baltic Nato members if Russia attacks them. My view is this when you give your word you give your word. You don't weasel out of an agreement you made if the person or group you made it with have kept up their end of the bargain.
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If Russia attacks the Baltics tomorrow we should defend the Baltics they are part of NATO. But the baltics are in a bad place and we probably should not have invited them in the first place, and if we can convince them to leave NATO that would be great.
 
WolfBear said:
Good luck with that. They'll never voluntarily leave NATO.
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Yeah, why the hell would they give up that security?
Agent23 said:
Those angry Ukrainians will be surrounded by just as many angry Russians who have had their cities shelled and relatives killed, if they start trying to play insurgency they will be yeeted out of the place in short order.
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If Islamic terrorism can commit multitude terrorist attacks across the west over the past decades under similar circumstances without getting yeeted I doubt it will be any different in this case.
 
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