Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[Cherico]

How many years will this Pax Americana hold before one president will be forced to recall them I wonder?

If Iran lasts that long they can have a shot at the title.

Iran has 4 problems

1. an aging population (lots of countries have the same problems)

2. Saudi arabia has basically decided to use its unlimited checkbook to deep fuck them with as much chaos as possible.

3. Their enemies have pipe lines out of the strait Iran doesnt all of their oil has to go that way all you need is one battleship to close the strait and destroy the Iranian economy.

4. They keep poking a great power with the capability to destroy their entire navy and airforce in a week.

Their if anything more dependent on the order the united states created then most countries if we stop protecting their shipping they hurt bad.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Iran has 4 problems

1. an aging population (lots of countries have the same problems)

2. Saudi arabia has basically decided to use its unlimited checkbook to deep fuck them with as much chaos as possible.

3. Their enemies have pipe lines out of the strait Iran doesnt all of their oil has to go that way all you need is one battleship to close the strait and destroy the Iranian economy.

4. They keep poking a great power with the capability to destroy their entire navy and airforce in a week.

Their if anything more dependent on the order the united states created then most countries if we stop protecting their shipping they hurt bad.

They're very intent on reaching for their dreams.

Despite what's going on in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's infinite cheque book means they can continue as long as they want?

 

[Cherico]

They're very intent on reaching for their dreams.

Despite what's going on in Yemen, Saudi Arabia's infinite cheque book means they can continue as long as they want?

The Saudi royal family may be ruthless and evil but they are not stupid and know how to avoid pissing off the wrong people.

 

[Arch Dornan]

The Saudi royal family may be ruthless and evil but they are not stupid and know how to avoid pissing off the wrong people.

I'm still not sure what's going on with Yemen but it was a clusterfuck that the Saudis got themselves in a civil war with a group called the Houthis the Iranians supported behind the scenes?

They had to stop killing each other when Corona Chan visited.

 

[PsihoKekec]

The killing in Yemen is not stopping for kung-flu, just as it didn't stop for cholera, which btw the Saudis excarbated by preventing delivery of medical supplies to Yemen, as part of their blockade.

 

[Floridaman]

I'm still not sure what's going on with Yemen but it was a clusterfuck that the Saudis got themselves in a civil war with a group called the Houthis the Iranians supported behind the scenes?

They had to stop killing each other when Corona Chan visited.

The thing is the Saudis dont want the fight in Yemen to end, Yemen can't hurt them, and it works as great live fire training for their military, that is all it is training.

 

[Deleted member 88]

The Iranians do have some advantages.

-Iraq is by and large a de facto Iranian province
-Assad still reigns in Syria and he owes the Iranians a lot. They saved his regime and likely his life.
-Sudan having recently overthrown Bashir is out of the Saudi orbit.
-Hezbollah is well stocked with missiles.
-Iran has plenty of other proxies and various militias throughout the region.
-Saudi Arabia’s Yemen war is not going well-in that it’s primary objective reinstalling Hadi is basically a failure.
-the gulf states have broken in various ways from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have secretly met with them, and Oman remains a quiet neutral state.
-Russia and China will back them up in pursuit of their own interests

Overall Iran has a good strategic position due to decades of work and toil.

 

[Zachowon]

But they like to poke the sleeping beast. Which is a major downside

 

[Deleted member 88]

But they like to poke the sleeping beast. Which is a major downside

They can poke a bit. They know Trump and the US want to avoid war at just about any cost. That means they can needle us for quite a bit without blowback.

 

[Zachowon]

They can poke a bit. They know Trump and the US want to avoid war at just about any cost. That means they can needle us for quite a bit without blowback.

They thought that, but almost went to war. Trump wants to avoid it, but is not afraid to poke back with a bigger stick

 

[Shipmaster Sane]

They can poke a bit. They know Trump and the US want to avoid war at just about any cost. That means they can needle us for quite a bit without blowback.

The US doesnt have to go to war with you to reduce senior officials from your military to a fine powder, as recent events have shown. Thats the benefit of being functionally unassailable.

 

[Deleted member 88]

The US doesnt have to go to war with you to reduce senior officials from your military to a fine powder, as recent events have shown. Thats the benefit of being functionally unassailable.

We took out one(albeit point man) general and a militia leader. The US won't actually kill Khomeini or Rouhani. And the Iranian command structure...is still intact. In fact Iranian operations in Syria and Iraq continue now. The Iranians pushed too far, and triggered American memories over 79 with the embassy business at the end of last year/beginning of this year, and Solemaini died for it.

The government he fought and killed for is still standing.

 

[Cherico]

We took out one(albeit point man) general and a militia leader. The US won't actually kill Khomeini or Rouhani. And the Iranian command structure...is still intact. In fact Iranian operations in Syria and Iraq continue now. The Iranians pushed too far, and triggered American memories over 79 with the embassy business at the end of last year/beginning of this year, and Solemaini died for it.

The government he fought and killed for is still standing.

this is true but things are only going to get worse for Iran as the global order goes away not better.

 

[Shipmaster Sane]

We took out one(albeit point man) general and a militia leader. The US won't actually kill Khomeini or Rouhani. And the Iranian command structure...is still intact. In fact Iranian operations in Syria and Iraq continue now. The Iranians pushed too far, and triggered American memories over 79 with the embassy business at the end of last year/beginning of this year, and Solemaini died for it.

The government he fought and killed for is still standing.

It's like you diddnt even read what I said, amazing

 

[Deleted member 88]

It's like you diddnt even read what I said, amazing

It's like you didn't actually respond to my point which is even more amazing.

 

[Shipmaster Sane]

It's like you didn't actually respond to my point which is even more amazing.

Your point doesn't connect to mine at all so I'm not sure what you think I'm supposed to respond with.

 

[Deleted member 88]

Your point doesn't connect to mine at all so I'm not sure what you think I'm supposed to respond with.

Iran is not interested in waging war on the United States. Your point about the US being unassailable was irrelevant to the discussion.

My point was that Iran is focused on Middle East empire building.

Iran and the US both want to avoid outright war, but the Iranians want to secure hegemony and the US wants to prevent that.

The US is not going to turn the Iranian leadership "into fine powder" as that would be actual war.

 

[Shipmaster Sane]

Iran is not interested in waging war on the United States. Your point about the US being unassailable was irrelevant to the discussion.

SO you didn't like what I said and decided to say something completely unrelated to it.

The US is not going to turn the Iranian leadership "into fine powder" as that would be actual war.

No it wouldn't be, actual war would be if the US invaded. The united states could bomb Iran however many times it want and as long as we didn't willingly enter their territory there would be no "war".

 

[Deleted member 88]

SO you didn't like what I said and decided to say something completely unrelated to it.


No it wouldn't be, actual war would be if the US invaded. The united states could bomb Iran however many times it want and as long as we didn't willingly enter their territory there would be no "war".

Your not talking about reality. Your imagining outright war when the relationship between the US and Iran is much more like with the Soviet Union. The Iranians hope to drive the US out of the region one day. That's it. Of course the US could destroy Iran in a real war. My point is that real war is off the cards.

Yes it would be. An aerial war, or limited war. And there would be broader consequences to even a limited campaign. Economic, geopolitical and so on.

 

[Shipmaster Sane]

Your not talking about reality. Your imagining outright war when the relationship between the US and Iran is much more like with the Soviet Union. The Iranians hope to drive the US out of the region one day. That's it. Of course the US could destroy Iran in a real war. My point is that real war is off the cards.

If the soviet union was demonstrably helpless against the united states, sure.

Yes it would be. An aerial war, or limited war. And there would be broader consequences to even a limited campaign. Economic, geopolitical and so on.

I mean, if you want to extend the idea of war to include one side bombing a helpless opponent's personnel, then we're already at war with them.