Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[Abhorsen]

The whole point of existence of IRGC with all its money and separate armed forces is to prevent such normalization. But we're talking civil war here, one resulting in total loss by IRGC and aligned forces. Its foreign adventures are only a side gig for them, their main job is to be, as the name implies the revolutionary guard, as in guarding the revolution.

Yeah. I'm on the one hand skeptical of the IRGC. On the other hand, I could easily see them making a play for power. There's a lot that could happen. Basically, I expect some manner of chaos when that happens, and it's worth the US's time to wait it out and basically force Iran to effectively save-or-die, rather than fighting in the near future.

Also, the IRGC is about keeping Iran Islamic. I don't know how many of them deeply care that they are anti-US, that's more incidental but not necessary.

Israel actually had great relations with Iran before the revolution. As soon as Iran stops being interested in islamic empire building by asserting to the Sunnis that they are better at it than the Sunni powers (plz convert), the old framework where secular Iran has plenty of need for allies against the backwards barbarian Sunni hordes encircling them would reassert itself.

I'm thinking of a non-secular Iran. Obviously, a secular Iran is an easy win. But a Theocratic empire that doesn't hate the US is also possible.

 

[Marduk]

Yeah. I'm on the one hand skeptical of the IRGC. On the other hand, I could easily see them making a play for power. There's a lot that could happen. Basically, I expect some manner of chaos when that happens, and it's worth the US's time to wait it out and basically force Iran to effectively save-or-die, rather than fighting in the near future.

Also, the IRGC is about keeping Iran Islamic. I don't know how many of them deeply care that they are anti-US, that's more incidental but not necessary.

Not merely Islamic in some unspecific sense with nearly unlimited leeway, but keeping the revolution alive. There is plenty of text and statements written by the recognized leaders of said revolution, and i don't see how that can stand without being anti-western in the broad sense.
Also the people in charge of IRGC are already part of the highest power structure. If there are some rearrangements in the oligarchy at the top of the leadership, that may not even cause any change in this system at all.
They exist as a counterweight for the possibility of national army and secular society making a move against the theocracy, it may be why we don't see much infighting there, they can't afford the risk of weakening themselves, otherwise the already visibly grumbling secular society may seize the opportunity and win for once.

I'm thinking of a non-secular Iran. Obviously, a secular Iran is an easy win. But a Theocratic empire that doesn't hate the US is also possible.

Why would an Islamic theocratic empire not hate the rotten infidel West?
Even Saudis have a very complicated set of internal and internal politics regarding the infidel politics, and that's with being merely a conservative monarchy which hates revolutionaries of any sort, not wannabe theocratic empire.
Irreconcilable differences is the term here. Some people may be willing to deceive themselves, and for some time clever ayatollahs may even want to keep the charade going to exploit those fools, but that's about it, we have to see things for what they are, not beg to be lied to.

 

[Abhorsen]

Why would an Islamic theocratic empire not hate the rotten infidel West?

Because there's a ton of ways to be theocratic. A number of theocrat islamists were pro western in Iran.

2 of 8 of the ones listed that are considered possible next Supreme Leaders where pro west, including the Grandson of the original Ayatollah and a former president. They aren't in power now, but they could get in power. It's worth waiting, as it costs us little.

Next Supreme Leader of Iran election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Marduk]

Because there's a ton of ways to be theocratic.

In theory, in practice Iran's way is chosen already, it is what it is, it is not gonna change without violence, and if it does, a massive fraction of supporters of any sort of theocracy will go down with the classic understanding of it. Especially among the militant arm of the revolution, they got raised on the stories fighting the West and trying to build an empire, they even found ways to get quite wealthy and powerful in the process, while there is no way the West is going to like the consequences of them building a religious empire, West's alliances and interests in the region be damned. They aren't just going to let someone turn their world 180 degrees except over their dead bodies, as that would not be a world they know how to live in and prosper. There's no way any alternative system would give them anything near what they have now, and that's quite an effective setup to put a revolutionary guard in.

Any kind of regime change in Iran that's not done by the IRGC will necessarily have to kill or at least imprison or exile much of the IRGC.

A number of theocrat islamists were pro western in Iran.

Deceptions for the gullible, remember, taqiyyah is a Shia invention.

2 of 8 of the ones listed that are considered possible next Supreme Leaders where pro west, including the Grandson of the original Ayatollah and a former president. They aren't in power now, but they could get in power. It's worth waiting, as it costs us little.

Next Supreme Leader of Iran election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Unlikely, and extremely so if they at least don't convince the rest that such views weren't a past mistake or act. Considering their histories, they aren't exactly rising stars in the power games.

 

[Husky_Khan]

So I tried giving this a watch. Lasted about nine minutes with literally nothing intelligible being shared and then this happened at about 9:30 in.

And as we've seen quite recently within the last 24 hours or so some of our Special Ops Forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses as I understand it. - Douglas MacGregor.

This operation must've been so secret that Hamas isn't bragging they just shot up an American and Israeli Special Forces raid. They must not want to inflame tensions by showing how many Delta Force/Navy Seals they massacred. Very thoughtful of them.

 

[Tiamat]

So I tried giving this a watch. Lasted about nine minutes with literally nothing intelligible being shared and then this happened at about 9:30 in.

And as we've seen quite recently within the last 24 hours or so some of our Special Ops Forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses as I understand it. - Douglas MacGregor.

This operation must've been so secret that Hamas isn't bragging they just shot up an American and Israeli Special Forces raid. They must not want to inflame tensions by showing how many Delta Force/Navy Seals they massacred. Very thoughtful of them.

Sheesh, Macgregor (I refuse to acknowledge the lying little shit's rank at this point) must be getting some awfully big checks from Moscow and Beijing to spew this pile of excrement. Same with Carlson.

 

[LordsFire]

Sheesh, Macgregor (I refuse to acknowledge the lying little shit's rank at this point) must be getting some awfully big checks from Moscow and Beijing to spew this pile of excrement. Same with Carlson.

Carlson, at least, is visibly just too far down the 'these people (American leftists) are so bad, whatever they're in favor of has to be bad, and whatever they're against has to be good' rabbit hole.

To be fair to him, before Ukraine, I wasn't sure if there was anything the left could agree with sane people on.

 

[Marduk]

Carlson, at least, is visibly just too far down the 'these people (American leftists) are so bad, whatever they're in favor of has to be bad, and whatever they're against has to be good' rabbit hole.

To be fair to him, before Ukraine, I wasn't sure if there was anything the left could agree with sane people on.

Russia attacked their political power as side effect of their destabilization ops in the West. They may be willing to forgive many things, as they do with the jihadis, but not this.

 

[TheRejectionist]

So I tried giving this a watch. Lasted about nine minutes with literally nothing intelligible being shared and then this happened at about 9:30 in.

And as we've seen quite recently within the last 24 hours or so some of our Special Ops Forces and Israeli Special Ops forces went into Gaza to reconnoiter, to plan where they might want to go to free hostages and make an impact and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses as I understand it. - Douglas MacGregor.

This operation must've been so secret that Hamas isn't bragging they just shot up an American and Israeli Special Forces raid. They must not want to inflame tensions by showing how many Delta Force/Navy Seals they massacred. Very thoughtful of them.

@Husky_Khan just like any other person, don't take it as the golden truth, much like Zeihan, Dore, Greenwald, Shapiro, Peterson and I could on.

Sheesh, Macgregor (I refuse to acknowledge the lying little shit's rank at this point) must be getting some awfully big checks from Moscow and Beijing to spew this pile of excrement. Same with Carlson.

@Tiamat well the other side is full of lying shits as well and they have been doing it for longer, but conveniently they align with your views now all of the sudden. Not to mention if he was actually having checks from Russia and China the guy would have been arrested or worse by now considering how they treated J6 protesters for much less or even Trump.

Carlson, at least, is visibly just too far down the 'these people (American leftists) are so bad, whatever they're in favor of has to be bad, and whatever they're against has to be good' rabbit hole.

It is the same side that wanted anyone non-Covid-vaxxed an outcast I think that is still a sane approach to leftists.

 

[Zachowon]

@Husky_Khan just like any other person, don't take it as the golden truth, much like Zeihan, Dore, Greenwald, Shapiro, Peterson and I could on.

@Tiamat well the other side is full of lying shits as well and they have been doing it for longer, but conveniently they align with your views now all of the sudden. Not to mention if he was actually having checks from Russia and China the guy would have been arrested or worse by now considering how they treated J6 protesters for much less or even Trump.

It is the same side that wanted anyone non-Covid-vaxxed an outcast I think that is still a sane approach to leftists.

MacGregor is a shill for the adversaries of the US

 

[Marduk]

@Tiamat well the other side is full of lying shits as well and they have been doing it for longer, but conveniently they align with your views now all of the sudden. Not to mention if he was actually having checks from Russia and China the guy would have been arrested or worse by now considering how they treated J6 protesters for much less or even Trump.

LMAO, that's not how law works even now, enjoy your delusional alternate reality where Russian rent-a-propagandists are the courageous truth tellers and not even nearly 2 years of being comically wrong doesn't change that. Meanwhile, he has actual appearances on TASS and RT, google it if you don't believe me, Russian state media, those do pay and provide a legal excuse for him to get Russian money, and people do not get arrested for working for them if all the paperwork is done.
Get real.

It is the same side that wanted anyone non-Covid-vaxxed an outcast I think that is still a sane approach to leftists.

A lot of leftists hated on ISIL despite usually simping for the Islamic world, are you going to apply this thinking to it too?

 

[Zachowon]

A broken clock is right twice a day

 

[Husky_Khan]

United States conducted a "precision strike" at a location near Abu Kamal in Eastern Syria against Iranian proxy groups, likely in response to the over dozen attacks Iran perpetrated against US personnel in multiple countries through these proxies in recent weeks.

 

[TheRejectionist]

If they didn't seek conflict why are they there uninvited ?

United States conducted a "precision strike" at a location near Abu Kamal in Eastern Syria against Iranian proxy groups, likely in response to the over dozen attacks Iran perpetrated against US personnel in multiple countries through these proxies in recent weeks.

 

[Marduk]

If they didn't seek conflict why are they there uninvited ?

Because the conflict was there already before they arrived, you know, the whole ISIL stuff, remember?

 

[Zachowon]

Because the conflict was there already before they arrived, you know, the whole ISIL stuff, remember?

Hw is getting at why we're we in Syria fighting ISIL in the first place.
We chose a side in thier civil war and have a large majority of the oil fields under US control.
He is implying we went to Syria solely for thier oil and thay we are holding Syrian oil hostage and that Assad has every right to allow Hezbollah and Hamas operate out of Syria

 

[Abhorsen]

Because the conflict was there already before they arrived, you know, the whole ISIL stuff, remember?

... Which we also caused. Like let's be clear about this, we are a major cause of problems in the middle east. A lot of what comes the US way is blowback.

 

[Marduk]

... Which we also caused.

Lolnope, take this leftist meme where it belongs, to trash.
Assad created the opportunity in form of running the place like shit and local Islamists took it in form of public discontent and protest chaos to exploit as they were better at the violence stuff than the democratic opposition, and things snowballed from there.

Like let's be clear about this, we are a major cause of problems in the middle east. A lot of what comes the US way is blowback.

LMAO, more leftist foreign policy gospel. Sorry, but i'm not a believer.

 

[Abhorsen]

Lolnope, take this leftist meme where it belongs, to trash.
Assad created the opportunity in form of running the place like shit and local Islamists took it in form of public discontent and protest chaos to exploit as they were better at the violence stuff than the democratic opposition, and things snowballed from there.

We literally armed rebels, and those arms just so happened to end up with ISIS. We got rid of Saddam, which left the country open to being conquered by ISIS. Us opposing Assad with military aid opened up a lane for ISIS. This isn't complicated to realize.

LMAO, more leftist foreign policy gospel. Sorry, but i'm not a believer.

You not being a believer in basic facts is unsurprising.

 

[Marduk]

We literally armed rebels,

For one you would have had no rebels to arm in the first place if Assad wasn't being a screwup for years before the civil war. And that's besides the fact some rebel factions were armed by others.

and those arms just so happened to end up with ISIS.

Mistake of US "nation builder" idealists. Should have guessed half the rebels are Islamists, and they are more ready for violence than "democratic opposition", so a night of long knives is inevitable, just as who will be holding the knives.

We got rid of Saddam, which left the country open to being conquered by ISIS.

Yet it wasn't conqquered, and ISIL was not doing well until it got into Syrian Civil War and took massive amounts of gear from Syrian military to snowball with.

Us opposing Assad with military aid opened up a lane for ISIS. This isn't complicated to realize.

Only for Americans who are ideologically hell bent on navel gazing, like US leftists.

You not being a believer in basic facts is unsurprising.

No, i'm not a believer in ascribing fault to US in a situation which is a complicated web of conditions in which USA committed only few mistakes, and well after the situation was started by other actors. But that only works in the heads of people who have a pre-conceived notion of "blame America" which comes with ability to ascribe agency in any mess to America with the precision of a JDAM, no matter how complicated the situation and how many other actors contributed to it even before America got involved.

America is in the picture, so all is America's fault. Ignore everyone else, no one else can have agency or be to blame for anything, everything is about America, and especially about America being bad.