Middle East Running Iranian threat news and discussion thread

[Comrade Clod]

That would defeat the whole purpose - sending a message and establishing credible deterrence.

Its done neither of those things. It hasn't dettered so much as enraged Iran and the message of "we kill ur doods" would be a lot better if it was plausibly deniable (i.e, claiming Sulemani died in a tragic accident and the target was one of the people he was with). ATM The US just look like triggerhappy morons.

 

[Marduk]

Its done neither of those things. It hasn't dettered so much as enraged Iran and the message of "we kill ur doods" would be a lot better if it was plausibly deniable (i.e, claiming Sulemani died in a tragic accident and the target was one of the people he was with). ATM The US just look like triggerhappy morons.

He was a officially designated a terrorist by USA since 2011, so what would be the point in trying to pretend that USA didn't want him dead? People on that list get assassinated all the bloody time.

 

[Comrade Clod]

He was a officially designated a terrorist by USA since 2011, so what would be the point in trying to pretend that USA didn't want him dead? People on that list get assassinated all the bloody time.

Give Iran an excuse to not make a big show of retaliating and getting more people killed. Kinda like they're doing now.

Of course this DOES assume that Trump didn't want a big kerfuffle in the first place, which considering he was talking to some friends about something "big" coming up in regards to Iran is really making me think this is at least partly a "hey look I killed a terrorist don't focus on my domestic issues" thing.

 

[Marduk]

Give Iran an excuse to not make a big show of retaliating and getting more people killed. Kinda like they're doing now.

The thing is, an escalation is going to hurt Iran way more than it's going to hurt USA.

Also of course the zealots leading iranian propaganda wouldn't take such a weak excuse anyway.

 

[GoldRanger]

Its done neither of those things. It hasn't dettered so much as enraged Iran and the message of "we kill ur doods" would be a lot better if it was plausibly deniable (i.e, claiming Sulemani died in a tragic accident and the target was one of the people he was with). ATM The US just look like triggerhappy morons.

Fascinating, I didn't know we had a member on the Sietch who has a personal and close knowledge of the Iranian leadership's mind. Do tell us more about what they do or do not think.

 

[Terthna]

Give Iran an excuse to not make a big show of retaliating and getting more people killed. Kinda like they're doing now.

Of course this DOES assume that Trump didn't want a big kerfuffle in the first place, which considering he was talking to some friends about something "big" coming up in regards to Iran is really making me think this is at least partly a "hey look I killed a terrorist don't focus on my domestic issues" thing.

Which domestic issues do you think he's trying to distract people from?

 

[Floridaman]

Which domestic issues do you think he's trying to distract people from?

To be fair he has created controversy to sneak changes past some people would shreak about it, but somehow I get the feeling this is not what they mean.

 

[LifeisTiresome]

As far as I can tell, it's just some meme being passed around amongst regressive left circles; and as is almost always the case, there is no evidence being presented to support such a notion. I first found out about it in an argument with my aunt, who said to "mark her words" (which is funny, because every time she's said that in the past, things never ended up panning out the way she insisted they would) that Trump just started a war with Russia, China, and North Korea; and when I pointed out how asinine that was, she just looked down her nose at me and insisted that I just hadn't done my research. Which in her mind probably amounts to little more than watching MSNBC, and accepting whatever drivel they spew as gospel.

You don't know??!

1000 iranian nuclear missiles just flew past my office building!! WW3 is here!!!

We warned you, you deplorables about Drumph!!! We warned you all!!!

But seriously though, isn't a WW3 where US gets destroyed a good thing in leftist minds? They hate the US so much. I would think they would be happy.

 

[Terthna]

You don't know??!

1000 iranian nuclear missiles just flew past my office building!! WW3 is here!!!

We warned you, you deplorables about Drumph!!! We warned you all!!!

But seriously though, isn't a WW3 where US gets destroyed a good thing in leftist minds? They hate the US so much. I would think they would be happy.

That's Trump Derangement Syndrome for you; no matter what he does, even if it's something that furthers their own goals, they have to be against it.

 

[prinCZess]

Which domestic issues do you think he's trying to distract people from?

Impeachment seems like the obvious one.

Though, in that same vein of skeptical consideration, it seems equally plausible Trump simply wanted to show-off as hard as he could to twitter, the media, and/or the Ayatollah after his 'Benghazi' at the Iraqi embassy, so he scatter-gunned 'Send in soldiers! Bomb this Soleimani guy! I'm going to tweet an American flag' as his response.
Which no doubt made John Bolton sad for not having figured it out as the ticket to getting some explosions happening.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Fascinating, I didn't know we had a member on the Sietch who has a personal and close knowledge of the Iranian leadership's mind. Do tell us more about what they do or do not think.

I don't need to be a fucking psychic, they put Solemani's face on tv with a bunch of prayers in the background and then started swearing vengeance.

 

[Comrade Clod]

Which domestic issues do you think he's trying to distract people from?

Impeachment, Ukraine revelations, ironically probably not the economy.

 

[Zachowon]

After the euphoria has passed I don't think so unless Iran strikes first and the US then backhands them.

Trump did hold of on a strike on Iran's actual airspace didn't he?

But the video of his funeral may mean a vengeful counterattack.

It seems like Iran has two choices. Do something or show they cant do shit.

He did call off an airstrike against Iran

Most likely, no. At the hottest, we'd bomb their military infrastructure and eat popcorn while the protesters they've been crushing off and on for the past year or so get the idea that the government they hate is weak.

You positive?

 

[Comrade Clod]

You positive?

Personally I agree with those who say an outright invasion in unlikely.

That said this bombing wouldn't be casualty free for the US. Aside from any potential retaliation (and the US cannot bring carriers into the gulf), Iran has been preparing for this sort of war for decades, it has anti-air missiles aplenty and a sizable (if not nearly as big as the US) fighter force.

 

[Zachowon]

Personally I agree with those who say an outright invasion in unlikely.

That said this bombing wouldn't be casualty free for the US. Aside from any potential retaliation (and the US cannot bring carriers into the gulf), Iran has been preparing for this sort of war for decades, it has anti-air missiles aplenty and a sizable (if not nearly as big as the US) fighter force.

Is it bad I kinda want an invasion? Most of what my MOS is revolves around peer to peer warfare at this point.

 

[Arch Dornan]

Is it bad I kinda want an invasion? Most of what my MOS is revolves around peer to peer warfare at this point.

The saying of people wanting a war until it happens to them applies.

In your line of work have you been in action?

 

[Zachowon]

The saying of people wanting a war until it happens to them applies.

In your line of work have you been in action?

We generally can since j will be stationed with the 2ID in Korea I could get deployed or be involved in a deployment

 

[LordsFire]

Personally I agree with those who say an outright invasion in unlikely.

That said this bombing wouldn't be casualty free for the US. Aside from any potential retaliation (and the US cannot bring carriers into the gulf), Iran has been preparing for this sort of war for decades, it has anti-air missiles aplenty and a sizable (if not nearly as big as the US) fighter force.

Their air force is a farce. F-14s and the Mig-29 are their most advanced, aircraft, and they're 40 years old. They'd be swept from the skies almost hilariously easily.

They may have some more modern SAMs from the Russians that might cause some legitimate trouble for the USAF and USN, but not in enough number to stop us from pounding them into the ground, and it's entirely possible that they won't be very effective against F-22's and F-35s in the first place. We just don't know yet.

The Iranians might be able to inflict some mild losses on the US, but barring epic screwup on the parts of key US service men, it won't be anything major.

 

[Zachowon]

Trump says US ready to strike 52 Iranian sites if Tehran attacks

President Trump says the US will strike key Iranian sites if Iran attacks Americans or US assets.

www.bbc.com

So trump has basically told Iran if you attack 52 places will go boom.

 

[GoldRanger]

I don't need to be a fucking psychic, they put Solemani's face on tv with a bunch of prayers in the background and then started swearing vengeance.

Of COURSE they have to do that. That's just keeping up appearances, the US did wound their pride after all. What really matters is the magnitude of their response. I bet it's going to be some lackluster symbolic rocket barrage in the general vicinity of an American base, possibly a genuine (but still minor) attack on Saudi Arabia or Israel. They're not starting a war anytime soon, because now they know full well how far the US is willing to take it.