peter Zeihan 2020




Basically the yellow river is dangerous as fuck and big floods have historically been devistating for china. So a major one would really disstabalize the country.

If China goes, it’s gonna ripple effect across the globe.
 



Essentially Ukraines getting some jets, and pilots are being trained to use said jets but the logistics for that all needs to be set up, more and better weapons are being shipped to Ukraine but their arriving too late to really affect this fighting season. Also were sending them stuff were decomisioned so stuff on that level is not being 'stolen' the rest of the hard cash transfers are likely what you should be watching not the equipment.
 



Essentially Ukraines getting some jets, and pilots are being trained to use said jets but the logistics for that all needs to be set up, more and better weapons are being shipped to Ukraine but their arriving too late to really affect this fighting season. Also were sending them stuff were decomisioned so stuff on that level is not being 'stolen' the rest of the hard cash transfers are likely what you should be watching not the equipment.

My guess is that a lot of arguing happened about what Ukraine is going to use the F-16's for anyway, and early plans probably included training pilots only in basic A2A and giving them F-16's early, but that situation was stabilized with ground based SAMs, while A2G is being handled somewhat by Su-24's modified to carry western weapons, so in the end it was decided to give the crew more conventional and longer training in multirole use of F-16.

Speaking of, few F-16's based on the coast may have major effects for the stuff happening over the Black Sea - while staying out of AShM range of Ukrainian coast and avoiding occasional drone is what they have to do now to not lose ships, they will have to deal with the fact that now the AShM launchers can zip over the Black Sea at the speed of a fighter jet, and the Harpoons they carry have even longer range than the ground based ones.
Combined with using drones and foreign intel for spotting ships, this could be very bad for Russian situation on Black Sea.
 
My guess is that a lot of arguing happened about what Ukraine is going to use the F-16's for anyway, and early plans probably included training pilots only in basic A2A and giving them F-16's early, but that situation was stabilized with ground based SAMs, while A2G is being handled somewhat by Su-24's modified to carry western weapons, so in the end it was decided to give the crew more conventional and longer training in multirole use of F-16.

Speaking of, few F-16's based on the coast may have major effects for the stuff happening over the Black Sea - while staying out of AShM range of Ukrainian coast and avoiding occasional drone is what they have to do now to not lose ships, they will have to deal with the fact that now the AShM launchers can zip over the Black Sea at the speed of a fighter jet, and the Harpoons they carry have even longer range than the ground based ones.
Combined with using drones and foreign intel for spotting ships, this could be very bad for Russian situation on Black Sea.

cheap way for the west to mission kill the russian navy.
 
cheap way for the west to mission kill the russian navy.
*Some* of the Russian Navy; the fleet in the Black Sea is not Russia's only fleet, or their largest.

More Russian boats on the bottom is always good, but let's not overstate how much of Russia's navy is actually at risk in this conflict.
 
*Some* of the Russian Navy; the fleet in the Black Sea is not Russia's only fleet, or their largest.

More Russian boats on the bottom is always good, but let's not overstate how much of Russia's navy is actually at risk in this conflict.

Can we at least agree it will be nice to not have that fleet around?
 
The bricks was never an alliance that made sense.
It makes some sense for the ones involved; the problem is everyone involved wants very different things from it, many of those incompatible with the desires of the other members.
 

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