peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
He's not wrong, but he could stand to look less at the large international picture, and actually pay more attention to the constraints on Russia's ability to both supply their troops and repair abilities.
I think Ziehan would benefit from watching Perun's vids for a more...ground level take that is more in-depth than these snippets.
Mud sucks, mud really really fucking sucks expecially for wars of manuver.
It would be idiotic of Russia to attack agriculture while also blocking exports by sea. Ukraine has a huge surplus of agricultural production and it has supply chains that the West can support. They would hit their export income, but then again, Ukraine is on financial life support from the West either way, which would also expand to food support if need be, with the outrage caused on the off chance they can target it so effectively that it causes more damage than merely blocking the export.
Then again, it would not be the first idiotic thing they did in this war.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
Funny how we can do that to the Russias and not to the organized crime shipping drugs into the USA…
One is a major geopolitical enemy, the other is an annoyance with a lot of relevant stakeholders with differing opinions.
The NSA fucking with Russia and Russian aligned criminal entities, even to the point of using proper cyber warfare utilities, is going to be supported basically 100% by everyone who matters in US decision making.
The NSA, and NatSec community more broadly, treating cartels the same way results in those same cyber warfare utilities being used against EU member nations, against banks, etc.
Not really. At least not the remotely intelligent ones. A LOT of drug money ends up in the banking system without anyone the wiser.
That's why you hit the oil terminals, tanks, and wells themselves; those are much more dicey to replace and much more likely to have a catastrophic secondary effect.
Cyber-attacks against refineries would probably be more useful than drones; fuck a refinery's IT/control infrastructure, and it won't matter how intact the phycial bits are, because you won't be able to safely use them much.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
The Russian weakness is tech and components they relied on western firms to provide. Since all the western oil companies are out of Russia. What are the chances men from places that do not official exist have debriefed those former oil techs?
Where the hell did he get several millions of armored vehicles out of. Even China has low tens of thousands. Knowing Russian storage standards, at least half the reserve vehicles they do have are basically in need of full factory refurbishment for use.
Ziehan is all focused on big picture metrics and ideas, and tends to miss rather important developments on the ground, like the refurb supply chain in Russia being shit.
It's why I trust Perun a lot more for detailed breakdowns of what is going on.
Ziehan is mostly good at the...high level international stuff that is based around 'honest metrics', which Russia's boasts about their stores are decidedly not a part of.
The soviet union made and stock piled a lot of kit.
I mean a lot, they basically spent 40 years building and stock piling weapons, and were then one of the top 10 weapon manufacterers in the world for decades. Even if most of that stuff is horrifically obsolete now, and was misstored and with parts sold off.
Now getting that stuff into use instead of being theorectical numbers on a page well Barcle has a point on that. But I do think this war is going to be with us for awhile because well.
that's how russia rolls.
Either he read something the wrong way or a shitty source. As i said, China has far less, and they love keeping old crap not much less than Russia.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
No comment on Russia going back to slaving?
Nothing new I know, oh wait total double UN-good bad stuff, because the Nazi’s did the same thing. Stealing kids to do slave labor. Now maybe the left will screech because Nazi’s.
Nothing new I know, oh wait total double UN-good bad stuff, because the Nazi’s did the same thing. Stealing kids to do slave labor. Now maybe the left will screech because Nazi’s.
PeaceMaker 03
Well-known member
This is a massive development; tropics friendly wheat would be a game changer for global food security.
It would also help ease the pain of Ukraine's wheat areas being filled with craters and UXO for the foreseeable future.