that's actually starting to already happen, covid started a large mass reindustrialization of the united states.
peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
that's actually starting to already happen, covid started a large mass reindustrialization of the united states.
History Learner
Well-known member
Nah, they've already started focusing on other areas like Southeast Asia and I wouldn't be surprised if that expands to wider South Asia; i.e. Pakistan and India. If short term profits is your goal, and that's basically what modern capitalism has become for American businesses, it makes no sense to move back to America in a large scale. You can only fix that via the power of the state, to be blunt.
The price of mexican labor was cheaper and more skilled then chinese labor before covid.
Some jobs are returning home but a lot of stuff done in china is going to be done in mexico now, which has the benifits of lower labor costs, more skill and much lower transprotation costs.
History Learner
Well-known member
Mexico is another likely place, yes; Southeast Asia though would still be my bet. Tangentially to this, this is why I advocate for a North American Union in part.
Mexico is legit right now in a place and time where they could become a developed rich country with in our lifetimes.
Which in my opnion is about damned time, place deserves to have some fucking luck for a change.
History Learner
Well-known member
No argument there, it's the "under the radar" contender, in that it's almost as large an economy as France or Italy. If it can get its crime issues under control, it'll have a good future economically ahead of it. My girlfriend works for MORENA, she's excited for it and we have discussed long term settling in Mexico so we can stay near her family.
I'd put that under "theoretically possible, but practically near impossible".
Their political scene is shifted too far left to unfuck their crime and economics problems, they are stuck trying to solve them with ideologically \leftist methods, whether they work or not. And so far, as the meme goes, it seems obvious that they don't.
They need something along the lines of Guiliani, if not Putin style policy to deal with the crime due to how widespread and grown into society it is, meanwhile what the political scene offers is more Sanders and AOC wannabes.
Here's how that's going now:
Only once that's corrected to something more like normal country levels they can also fix the economy, which would mean liberalization... But again, Mexico would be more interested in aping the policies of rich left leaning democracies, rather than aping the policies of middle income countries at the time they were turning into rich ones.
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Gasoline costs. Housing costs. Food costs. Consumer goods costs. They are all going up. The inflation is real and it is only “transitory” if by “transitory” you are measuring time in years.
The real nut of the issue, however, is that few of the current price pressures have anything to do with government policy. Higher energy costs are the result of years of financial mismanagement. Higher housing costs are an outcome of large-scale internal migration decisions. Food costs largely boil down to transport issues. Consumer goods costs are an outcome of COVID-related demand whiplashes.
This might sound odd, but I don’t worry so much about these short-term inflationary pressures we’re currently experiencing. They are the outcomes of our current economic evolutions. That makes them uncomfortable, but ultimately, heh, transitory.
I’m far more concerned with the waves of inflationary pressures occurring just past the horizon:
The American economy is in the midst of the greatest rewiring in the history of the Republic, while the global system faces systemic breakdown. Those pressures are not simply inflationary, they will have a far greater impact upon prices than anything we’ve seen so far in 2021.
Here’s a more homegrown inflation source that will be — at least in part — an outcome of internal political and government decision-making.
Over the course of the past sixty years, we’ve become somewhat accustomed to the geopolitics of oil. Interrupt oil flows from the former Soviet or Persian Gulf regions, and we see energy inflation wash over us all. It forced us to pay attention to the ins-and-outs of politics in as calm, measured places as Gaza and Tehran and Riyadh and Caracas and Moscow and Kiev.
One of the (many) benefits of the American shale revolution is that America just doesn’t care very much about any of these places any longer. It’s a big piece of why energy prices are chronically lower in North America compared to the rest of the world, and why U.S. troop deployments abroad are now at their lowest levels in 120 years.
But the path to deglobalization isn’t a smooth one, wrapped up as it is in a variety of technological evolutions, some of which may force the United States to become more involved in managing the world. For as difficult as the geopolitics of oil has proven to be, it is nothing compared to the geopolitics of green energy. Yes, green electricity is generated at home, but the supply chain for constructing wind and solar facilities makes getting oil out of the Middle East look like a game of checkers.
For oil we needed to interface with Saudi Arabia and Iran and Venezuela and Russia, but greentech requires us to interface with Chile and Argentina and Bolivia and China and Australia and Congo and Gabon and Brazil and South Africa and Peru and Mexico and Kazakhstan and Turkey and India and Mozambique and oh yeah still Russia.
If the Green dream of 100% non-carbon energy is to take form, we will need to replace our one energy input supply chain with over a dozen more.
Peter Zeihan
in other words shit be fucked for awhile.
The real nut of the issue, however, is that few of the current price pressures have anything to do with government policy. Higher energy costs are the result of years of financial mismanagement. Higher housing costs are an outcome of large-scale internal migration decisions. Food costs largely boil down to transport issues. Consumer goods costs are an outcome of COVID-related demand whiplashes.
This might sound odd, but I don’t worry so much about these short-term inflationary pressures we’re currently experiencing. They are the outcomes of our current economic evolutions. That makes them uncomfortable, but ultimately, heh, transitory.
I’m far more concerned with the waves of inflationary pressures occurring just past the horizon:
The American economy is in the midst of the greatest rewiring in the history of the Republic, while the global system faces systemic breakdown. Those pressures are not simply inflationary, they will have a far greater impact upon prices than anything we’ve seen so far in 2021.
Here’s a more homegrown inflation source that will be — at least in part — an outcome of internal political and government decision-making.
Over the course of the past sixty years, we’ve become somewhat accustomed to the geopolitics of oil. Interrupt oil flows from the former Soviet or Persian Gulf regions, and we see energy inflation wash over us all. It forced us to pay attention to the ins-and-outs of politics in as calm, measured places as Gaza and Tehran and Riyadh and Caracas and Moscow and Kiev.
One of the (many) benefits of the American shale revolution is that America just doesn’t care very much about any of these places any longer. It’s a big piece of why energy prices are chronically lower in North America compared to the rest of the world, and why U.S. troop deployments abroad are now at their lowest levels in 120 years.
But the path to deglobalization isn’t a smooth one, wrapped up as it is in a variety of technological evolutions, some of which may force the United States to become more involved in managing the world. For as difficult as the geopolitics of oil has proven to be, it is nothing compared to the geopolitics of green energy. Yes, green electricity is generated at home, but the supply chain for constructing wind and solar facilities makes getting oil out of the Middle East look like a game of checkers.
For oil we needed to interface with Saudi Arabia and Iran and Venezuela and Russia, but greentech requires us to interface with Chile and Argentina and Bolivia and China and Australia and Congo and Gabon and Brazil and South Africa and Peru and Mexico and Kazakhstan and Turkey and India and Mozambique and oh yeah still Russia.
If the Green dream of 100% non-carbon energy is to take form, we will need to replace our one energy input supply chain with over a dozen more.
Peter Zeihan
in other words shit be fucked for awhile.
Green energy has its uses but you are correct its not a silver bullet sooner or later we will have to bring nuclear on line out of pragmatism.
History Learner
Well-known member
The fact the U.S. failed to focus on Nuclear Fusion means much of our Government belongs in prison on its own.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
The fact the U.S. failed to focus on Nuclear Fusion means much of our Government belongs in prison on its own.
Hogwash. Fission was a technology already understood, in use, and able to be used on a continuing and larger scale. Speculation about how long it would take to develop fusion if we'd thrown more money at the problem, especially given how many other things that have had more money thrown at them by the fed and not turned out well, means nothing compared to what we know could have happened if we'd just built more fission plants.
IE, our power grid could be running almost entirely off of nuclear by the 90's, drastically dropping the use of oil and coal in power plants.
that is all litterally due to the environmentalists....
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Yes. Yes it was. And I fully expect that if we ever get economical fusion, they will suddenly discover that it isn't clean or safe either, and we need some other pie-in-the-sky unworkable 'green' technology to replace our entire electricity grid.
and one day when we need cheap power and dont have alternatives and they still stand in the way then they will be slaughtered in mass, because when you make people choose between food and making you happy your not going to win.
History Learner
Well-known member
There's a lot I could quibble with here, but I'm going to refrain because I agree in general with what you're saying here but also because it dovetails exactly with the point I'm making. We can, in theory, give the U.S. Government a pass on not developing Fusion-but no such excuse exists for fission when, back in the 1960s, we were testing MSRs. That we had a proven technology which could've changed everything and they failed to develop is exactly the sort of point I was making with regards to the wider issue of fusion.
I don't care whether its Fusion or MSRs (Although Fusion is better), the failure to develop either is an indictment.
we are not the first country to pass on a great oportunity and advantage because of stupidity and ignorance.
The chinese treasure fleets come to mind, china's best chance at ever lasting greatness destroyed by a bunch of uniqes.
Morphic Tide
Well-known member
What the fuck is that map projection?
demographics their fucked across the entire world.