peter Zeihan 2020

f1onagher

Well-known member
Peter's made no secret about how much he dislikes America's isolationist streak, but until recently we never really got to see him complain about it in more than an abstract sense. I'm beginning to get the feeling that he or more likely his contacts in the professional world are starting to feel the squeeze as America starts to make it clear that their expertise is needed in less volume than it once was.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Peter's made no secret about how much he dislikes America's isolationist streak, but until recently we never really got to see him complain about it in more than an abstract sense. I'm beginning to get the feeling that he or more likely his contacts in the professional world are starting to feel the squeeze as America starts to make it clear that their expertise is needed in less volume than it once was.

The american led order led to the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has known for centuries maybe even ever. Its rational to be sad and feel some despare to see it go but the problem is simply this. Unless there is a payoff for the people back home the american people are just going to say no to it because it is expensive, and we do litterally bleed to keep it going, and on top of that there is very little if any gratitude for the sacerfices americans make in blood and treasure to make all of this possible.

Its one thing to bleed and blow money for your friends its another thing entirely to do so for ingrates.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
The american led order led to the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has known for centuries maybe even ever. Its rational to be sad and feel some despare to see it go but the problem is simply this. Unless there is a payoff for the people back home the american people are just going to say no to it because it is expensive, and we do litterally bleed to keep it going, and on top of that there is very little if any gratitude for the sacerfices americans make in blood and treasure to make all of this possible.

Its one thing to bleed and blow money for your friends its another thing entirely to do so for ingrates.
Do you realise how few military deaths there actually are? Not to denigrate those who do make that sacrifice, or their families, because it's a hell of a thing on that personal level. On a statistical level though, it's a blip. Far more Americans die to traffic accidents. A greater number are killed by the American police as die to a foreign enemy. Almost 50 times as many Americans kill themselves, compared to the number who die serving. Litterally hundreds of times as many die to obesity related issues, or to cancer.

As to the monetary cost, that's not likely to go away with isolationism. Unless America decides that they're not really concerned with winning a global war the way they are now, they need to spend almost the same amount on defence as they are now. They might shave a few percentage points off by reducing active operations, but it's not going to significantly change things unless they accept a dramatic, almost total, force restructuring.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
The american led order led to the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has known for centuries maybe even ever. Its rational to be sad and feel some despare to see it go but the problem is simply this. Unless there is a payoff for the people back home the american people are just going to say no to it because it is expensive, and we do litterally bleed to keep it going, and on top of that there is very little if any gratitude for the sacerfices americans make in blood and treasure to make all of this possible.

Its one thing to bleed and blow money for your friends its another thing entirely to do so for ingrates.
What's aggravating is that everyone that was complaining about us supporting them, will complain even louder once they realize we're not going to anymore. Of course, they're probably going to back the American establishment once our civil war finally goes hot; so when the opposition wins, the bad blood will probably be enough to kill the idea of international cooperation outright for generations.
 

S'task

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Do you realise how few military deaths there actually are? Not to denigrate those who do make that sacrifice, or their families, because it's a hell of a thing on that personal level. On a statistical level though, it's a blip. Far more Americans die to traffic accidents. A greater number are killed by the American police as die to a foreign enemy. Almost 50 times as many Americans kill themselves, compared to the number who die serving. Litterally hundreds of times as many die to obesity related issues, or to cancer.

As to the monetary cost, that's not likely to go away with isolationism. Unless America decides that they're not really concerned with winning a global war the way they are now, they need to spend almost the same amount on defence as they are now. They might shave a few percentage points off by reducing active operations, but it's not going to significantly change things unless they accept a dramatic, almost total, force restructuring.
It's not just the ingratitude of the international community, it's also the ingratitude of the cultural elites.

You rarely see Hollywood actors or major academics talking about how the US created the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has ever known, how free market capitalist trade networks have lifted more people out of poverty than ever in world history. You don't see America and it's ideals, which are what directly led it to being the world police and creating the Pax Americana that benefitted so many people, held up as good and ideal things.

No, rather, from the academic and social elites we hear about how terrible American ideals are. How we engage in neo-colonialism and are racist. The international community echoes these accusations, and further demands that we don't do with our own markets what they do with theirs with protectionism. That the US is an evil, greedy country, full of racists and backwards idiots who cling to outdated ideals.

When you have that level of ingratitude, to the point where domestically there was cheering at the humiliating way the withdraw from Afghanistan has happened. It makes those Americans who were most invested in the ideal of being the Good Guy tune out and withdraw. It begins to engender in the population a rising tide of "well then, if we're so evil, maybe we should actually act that way", and once the elites realize the beast they've created, it will not end well for them...
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
It's not just the ingratitude of the international community, it's also the ingratitude of the cultural elites.

You rarely see Hollywood actors or major academics talking about how the US created the greatest era of peace and prosperity the world has ever known, how free market capitalist trade networks have lifted more people out of poverty than ever in world history. You don't see America and it's ideals, which are what directly led it to being the world police and creating the Pax Americana that benefitted so many people, held up as good and ideal things.

No, rather, from the academic and social elites we hear about how terrible American ideals are. How we engage in neo-colonialism and are racist. The international community echoes these accusations, and further demands that we don't do with our own markets what they do with theirs with protectionism. That the US is an evil, greedy country, full of racists and backwards idiots who cling to outdated ideals.

When you have that level of ingratitude, to the point where domestically there was cheering at the humiliating way the withdraw from Afghanistan has happened. It makes those Americans who were most invested in the ideal of being the Good Guy tune out and withdraw. It begins to engender in the population a rising tide of "well then, if we're so evil, maybe we should actually act that way", and once the elites realize the beast they've created, it will not end well for them...
I don't know what you're talking about. There are plenty of movies glorifying American militarism and imperialism, and I struggle to think of many that denigrate those ideas. Since we apparently see different movies, maybe we could compare a few? For starters, the transformers franchise is very pro military whilst opposing the political leadership. The new Trek movies all support an imperialistic ideal. Top gun, zero dark thirty and blackhawk down slide somewhat closer to pro armed forces propaganda than documentary, and Argo pushed the "Murica, fuck yeah!" ideology too. Battleship would make that list too, and Skyline, ID2 and battle: LA would seem to fit.
 
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gral

Well-known member
I don't know what you're talking about. There are plenty of movies glorifying American militarism and imperialism, and I struggle to think of many that denigrate those ideas. Since we apparently see different movies, maybe we could compare a few? For starters, the transformers franchise is very pro military whilst opposing the political leadership. The new Trek movies all support an imperialistic ideal. Top gun, zero dark thirty and blackhawk down slide somewhat closer to pro armed forces propaganda than documentary, and Argo pushed the "Murica, fuck yeah!" ideology too. Battleship would make that list too, and Skyline, ID2 and battle: LA would seem to fit.
He's not talking about movies, he's talking about the actors themselves. Because, you know, people can act a character that is diametrically opposed to what one believes in real life.
 

S'task

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I don't know what you're talking about. There are plenty of movies glorifying American militarism and imperialism, and I struggle to think of many that denigrate those ideas. Since we apparently see different movies, maybe we could compare a few? For starters, the transformers franchise is very pro military whilst opposing the political leadership. The new Trek movies all support an imperialistic ideal. Top gun, zero dark thirty and blackhawk down slide somewhat closer to pro armed forces propaganda than documentary, and Argo pushed the "Murica, fuck yeah!" ideology too. Battleship would make that list too, and Skyline, ID2 and battle: LA would seem to fit.
I'm not talking about what's in movies, though I would say none of the movies you listed actually do what I am talking about, that is, explicitly express the positivity of the Pax Americana and uphold the underlying philosophical and ideological values that built it, rather, those are simply movies that cheerlead the US military in the abstract. And the new Star Trek movies? Dude, none of those uphold the ideals of the Pax Americana and in point of fact "Into Darkness" is explicitly written as a criticism of American ideals with considerable influence of a 9/11 Truther.

The ideals underlying Pax Americana are not about American militarism and imperialism, they are about the things that make America and Americans see themselves as the "good guys" on the international stage. The things that make Americans see wrongs in other countries and go "we should help". It is also the things that make Americans value free market economics, value a representative republic, and understand the value of civic duty and responsibilities.

Meanwhile you see dozens of Hollywood movies that explicitly create criticisms of the American system and American culture. From the constant portrayal of American Christians in villainous roles, to the near universal narrative of "corporations evil", to the constant portrayal of things like nuclear power as dangerous, the constant attacks on America's founding we see via so-called academics via "The People's History of the United States" (one of the most successful bits of propaganda ever passed off as accurate history) and now with the 1619 Project.

These processes have over the year degraded the morale and moral fortitude of Americans to the point where we are now, with a lack of moral clarity, a lack of leadership, and a sharp division between those who still hold to American values and those who would see the US fundamentally transformed into a socialist autocracy.
 

Megadeath

Well-known member
I'm not talking about what's in movies, though I would say none of the movies you listed actually do what I am talking about, that is, explicitly express the positivity of the Pax Americana and uphold the underlying philosophical and ideological values that built it, rather, those are simply movies that cheerlead the US military in the abstract. And the new Star Trek movies? Dude, none of those uphold the ideals of the Pax Americana and in point of fact "Into Darkness" is explicitly written as a criticism of American ideals with considerable influence of a 9/11 Truther.

The ideals underlying Pax Americana are not about American militarism and imperialism, they are about the things that make America and Americans see themselves as the "good guys" on the international stage. The things that make Americans see wrongs in other countries and go "we should help". It is also the things that make Americans value free market economics, value a representative republic, and understand the value of civic duty and responsibilities.

Meanwhile you see dozens of Hollywood movies that explicitly create criticisms of the American system and American culture. From the constant portrayal of American Christians in villainous roles, to the near universal narrative of "corporations evil", to the constant portrayal of things like nuclear power as dangerous, the constant attacks on America's founding we see via so-called academics via "The People's History of the United States" (one of the most successful bits of propaganda ever passed off as accurate history) and now with the 1619 Project.

These processes have over the year degraded the morale and moral fortitude of Americans to the point where we are now, with a lack of moral clarity, a lack of leadership, and a sharp division between those who still hold to American values and those who would see the US fundamentally transformed into a socialist autocracy.
So... I gave specific examples, can you?
 

S'task

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So... I gave specific examples, can you?
Did you miss my mention of "The People's History of the United States" and the 1619 Project?

"The People's History of the United States" is explicitly interesting because it was partially popularized by the film "Good Will Hunting" and his been put into numerous middle and high school history classes going back to the 90s and 00s.

But you want movies that explicitly have messages that attack Pax American and the values of the US? Consider "Frozen II", with how it was structured in an "evil colonial white people vs noble natives" structure that Disney has been using since at least "Pocahontas" in the 90s (you want to talk about demonization of historic figures, look into the differences between the cartoon John Radcliff and the actual historic John Radcliff), you also see this explicit reframing in "Maleficent" which rewrites one of the most explicitly evil and anti-Christian Disney villains into the that same "Evil White Man vs noble oppressed natives" structure. You also have things like the explicit dropping of discussion of the Christian faith from famous historic figures even in biopics, like what was noted was done in the 2019 Tolkien biopic.

And that's me cherry picking a handful of movies from 2019, every year you have movies that use the same frameworks and structures that are meant to attack and undermine historical American idealism and culture. They even explicitly lay out that that is the goal, though clothed in terms of "addressing historic oppression" and the like.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
I don't know what you're talking about. There are plenty of movies glorifying American militarism and imperialism, and I struggle to think of many that denigrate those ideas. Since we apparently see different movies, maybe we could compare a few? For starters, the transformers franchise is very pro military whilst opposing the political leadership. The new Trek movies all support an imperialistic ideal. Top gun, zero dark thirty and blackhawk down slide somewhat closer to pro armed forces propaganda than documentary, and Argo pushed the "Murica, fuck yeah!" ideology too. Battleship would make that list too, and Skyline, ID2 and battle: LA would seem to fit.

1. No Transformers movie after Revenge of the Fallen has given the military a positive portrayal. In the 4th and 5th it was completely negative.

2. The new Trek movies are not imperialistic, and are so far removed from IRL making a direct America comparison is hard.

3. Top Gun was made in the 80's.

4. Zero Dark Thirty I've never even heard of, but looking at IMDB, I'll give you this one based on the description.

5. Blackhawk Down was made in the early 2000's.

6. Battleship is literally a joke as a movie.

7. Skyline I've never even heard of, and it had a 10-20 million budget, which is a pittance in Hollywood terms.

8. I don't even know what ID2 is.

9. Battlefield: Los Angeles is literally the most boring movie I have ever seen. It is the standard setter for bland and uninteresting. I'll still grant you that it's fairly pro-military though.


On the whole, I'll give you that there's still some idealization of the military, though most of it is almost or more than a decade ago, but your examples in general don't seem to have any kind of 'pro America' message like you're suggesting.
 

Cherico

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first world will use tech to increase its improve its yelds, in post global world much of the world will have problems feeding themselves.
 

bullethead

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Honestly, the most important part is at the start, where he goes over the French view of diplomacy and how it's completely different than the Anglo-sphere version.
 

Marduk

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the french deal with australia fell through due to geography.

Yup, though its a more roundabout way to get to the same theory i've had. For the French, the deal is a pure money deal.
For USA, the deal is part of a wider serious, naval power oriented alliance against China, with money being a secondary issue. Due to their interests in the region neither can back out of that.
Hence Australia can clearly see that the latter offer can and will likely come with perks to help in something they care about due to being in China's backyard, and the partner is absolutely interested in ensuring that the project serves the defense side of things well, while for France making money is all there is to it, if there are delays, who cares, if there are cost overruns, even better.
 

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