those stacks of cash are going to run out soon.
peter Zeihan 2020
- Thread starter Cherico
- Start date
those stacks of cash are going to run out soon.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Gravy train always ends. It's just who ends up picking the tab.
Eh, people say that. I have my doubts. Certainly in any short period of time. The Soviet Union was passing out billions it could not afford right up until it collapsed to keep money losing ventures going. The Chinese economy is still growing, and it's still mostly pouring its billions and trillions into money making enterprises. Those billions into US colleges are still producing useful students for china, transferring huge amounts of knowledge to china, and shaping the American elite to be more to their liking. The bribes to the Clintons and Biden's I'm sure are still paying dividends.
The point where china can no longer afford to throw a billion into buying influence in the US seems an awfully ling way off.
The point where china can no longer afford to throw a billion into buying influence in the US seems an awfully ling way off.
And yet he's already downplayed China's current genocidal proclivities as being "cultural differences," which he very awkwardly and nonsensically tried to rationalize excuses for not condemning. He's also resumed funding for WHO after it has become very obvious that they are acting as mouthpieces for China, as well as refusing to recognize our ally, Taiwan, which was trying to raise alarm bells during the very early days of the pandemic. And he's looked nothing but weak when called on his own early response to the pandemic, which amounted to calling Trump a racist and xenophobe while downplaying the danger of the disease himself. He has yet to really get "eaten alive" by anyone for any of this.
Terthna
Professional Lurker
I wonder if anyone is going to heed the warning signs, and get their money out of China before it's too late? Some will, probably; but the rest? I suspect we're going to see a lot of companies bankrupt themselves, trying to take advantage of a foreign market that isn't there anymore.
They get what they fucking deserve.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
Welp, if that's true then the American Empire isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
My question is, in such a scenario, who could possibly rise to be the next challenger to American hegemony?
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Keep in mind, there very well could still be a lot of money to be made in China for decades to come. If they have a slow-motion collapse, it'll be a decade or few before they stop being a major profitable market, and another decade past that before the corpos can't deny that the situation is not recoverable.
If something happens, like a failed invasion of Taiwan causing the CCP to collapse all at once, well. No telling for sure what comes out the other side.
f1onagher
Well-known member
That's the thing about geopolitics, they tend to be gradual and glacial most of the time. Obviously things like world wars make events fast and spicy, but those are not the norm. Its going to be some time before demographic collapse registers to the world at large and if its gradual enough everyone will just adjust and accept it the same way many people have taken to things like interminable Covid restrictions.
So guys like Zeihan get to enjoy being accused of shilling USA! cope for years and then never really get credit if they're proven right.
The Inflating of Fears - Zeihan on Geopolitics
Long story short Globalization as we know it is dying, it doesn't matter what the leadership does or wants its going to die.
Also there is a good chance that the trade war goes into high gear when the olympics happens.
Long story short Globalization as we know it is dying, it doesn't matter what the leadership does or wants its going to die.
Also there is a good chance that the trade war goes into high gear when the olympics happens.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Well, we're going to see if Zeihan's predictions prove accurate over the next 2-10 years. The evidence will come in, and we'll see if he's a sharp-eyed savvy understander of economics, or just one more intellectual who confidently predicted things but missed something crucial along the way.
Given he deals in economics rather than pure politics, I give him much better than average odds. My bias to like some of his predictions may be skewing my perspective though, of course.
Given he deals in economics rather than pure politics, I give him much better than average odds. My bias to like some of his predictions may be skewing my perspective though, of course.
f1onagher
Well-known member
I'm a little worried about my personal bias with him as well, but he proved to be correct about the effect of fracking back in 2014/15 so I give him better odds as well.
Lord Sovereign
The resident Britbong
China is also communist and thus destined to eventually implode. This is made all the worse by various ethnic groups, long abused by Beijing, who will break away the first chance they get.
Zeihan can be trusted with big picture economic stuff but domestic politics is outside his wheel house.
That said he has admited that america's news organizations are completely disfunctional and cant be trusted and that leads to a garbage in garbage out situation.
f1onagher
Well-known member
Modern Monetary Theory is bullshit coming and going as it revolves around the idea that you never have to actually pay off the debt entirely, just keep the money juggled. I do appreciate that he pointed out that MMT does involve paying some of the money back, it is an important caveat, but it's still an asinine idea. In a sane world we'd switch to an Austrian-derived monetary model as unlike the Kenisan religion we've been following for a century it revolves around paying for what you buy and not leeching off of growth and momentum.
Unfortunately, unlike MMT, Austrian economics doesn't allow for significant graft to feed high caste leeches or endless bribe pork to quiet the plebians.
Unfortunately, unlike MMT, Austrian economics doesn't allow for significant graft to feed high caste leeches or endless bribe pork to quiet the plebians.
