peter Zeihan 2020

[bullethead]

This channel has a bunch of recent Peter Zeihan talks uploaded:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZIFOCfVxLJexAKnSb2TWXg

I've been watching this one that was definitely recorded pre-Ukraine invasion:


TL;DW:
-The Mexican border is going to become a big problem, due to the cartels - he compares it to Iraq/Afghanistan
-Peter has way too much faith in military/national security complex
-We're looking at 6-12 years of political turmoil involving political realignment
-He thinks China will go for Taiwan in the near future due to all the economic and political factors going to shit for them in the long term
-He gives the Taiwan invasion a 1 in 2 chance
-The most recent census may have overcounted the Chinese female population by up to 25%
-China and Russia's alliance will fall apart once the US stops propping up the global system, neither can sustain military action for any significant duration due to their demographic issues
-He's more worried about the repercussions of Russia and China fighting each other, mentioning that Russia's strategy is likely to involve nukes

 

[Floridaman]

This channel has a bunch of recent Peter Zeihan talks uploaded:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZIFOCfVxLJexAKnSb2TWXg

I've been watching this one that was definitely recorded pre-Ukraine invasion:


TL;DW:
-He's more worried about the repercussions of Russia and China fighting each other, mentioning that Russia's strategy is likely to involve nukes

I mean to be fair during the sino-soviet split the soviets did ask the other major powers if anyone would be to perturbed if they nuked Beijing

 

[Cherico]

I mean to be fair during the sino-soviet split the soviets did ask the other major powers if anyone would be to perturbed if they nuked Beijing

The only major power that spoke up for china was us.

Too bad communists don't understand the concept of graditude.

 

[Floridaman]

The only major power that spoke up for china was us.

Too bad communists don't understand the concept of graditude.

They do, they consider it a weakness.

 

[Spartan303]

I'm about halfway through this now. Wow. Some of this I had already caught on too. But I had no idea China was THAT desperate. Which makes me wonder...Why is China becoming so belligerent if they need America to continue to be the Hegemon to keep the world trade open. Why not try to coax the US instead?

 

[S'task]

I'm about halfway through this now. Wow. Some of this I had already caught on too. But I had no idea China was THAT desperate. Which makes me wonder...Why is China becoming so belligerent if they need America to continue to be the Hegemon to keep the world trade open. Why not try to coax the US instead?

Pride and refusal to play second fiddle to what they see as a lesser power. You have to remember, China still holds grudges concerning the Century of Humiliation, as they call it, those grudges are mainly against European colonial powers, but the US' hands aren't entirely clean there. Plus, remember that China considers itself the center of the world, and for the majority of its history it was. The last few hundred years of Euro/Amero Dominace of the world and the world economy is very irregular. For the majority of recorded history China has been the single largest and economically most important country in the world. That isn't forgotten easily. Add on that the US is a young nation and a nation build on ideals that are heavily contrary to the founding philosophies of China (while most would say its Confucianism, in reality China has always been ruled by a mix of Legalism merged with Confucianism... now add in Maosit Communism and you have these philosophical systems that have dramatic and serious differences to the US which is founded on Christian, Enlightenment, and Classical Liberal Philosophy), and the Chinese government has a lot of trouble respecting the US, especially given with how corrupt our ruling elite have become.

 

[Floridaman]

I'm about halfway through this now. Wow. Some of this I had already caught on too. But I had no idea China was THAT desperate. Which makes me wonder...Why is China becoming so belligerent if they need America to continue to be the Hegemon to keep the world trade open. Why not try to coax the US instead?

Because if they don't act now they will never be able to

 

[gral]

They do, they consider it a weakness.

'Gratitude is a disease of dogs' - attributed to Joseph Stalin

 

[stephen the barbarian]

Recorded Feb 15, 2022.
tl;dr the war in the Ukraine may cause the nation of Russia to fall

 

[Spartan303]

Recorded Feb 15, 2022.
tl;dr the war in the Ukraine may cause the nation of Russia to fall

Economically it's well on the way.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

I must stress that Russia is a very old country who's lineage stretches back far further than Ivan the Terrible. She will survive in some shape or form and likely rise again one day. I would say something similar of China, which is more of a civilisation than a country.

 

[Cherico]

 

[LordsFire]

Well, that deals with actual hardware and technical details, which is generally what Zeihan is good at. You might want to link that over on the Ukraine/Russia thread.

 

[Cherico]

the pipe lines are going to have issues.

 

[Cherico]

Russia and gold

 

[Floridaman]

Russia and gold

What did it say, can't watch right now

 

[Cherico]

What did it say, can't watch right now

Russia is going to use gold to do all of their international shopping for awhile, they can probally get away with relying on it for around a year or so. So expect russian gold reserves to leak out during that time period.

 

[Urabrask Revealed]

Russia is going to use gold to do all of their international shopping for awhile, they can probally get away with relying on it for around a year or so. So expect russian gold reserves to leak out during that time period.

Must be a bad/good time to be the director i charge of the gold.

 

[Floridaman]

Russia is going to use gold to do all of their international shopping for awhile, they can probally get away with relying on it for around a year or so. So expect russian gold reserves to leak out during that time period.

Ehh i am seeing the opposite they are trying to accumulate gold. And the sanctions haven't really mattered since india and China have both said they aren't doing it.

 

[Cherico]

russia lost a very important ship, they only have so many ships in the black sea, were putting anti ship weapons in the urkraine so its likely their fleet isn't going to last much longer because moving naval ships is a bitch and a half.

That opens up options.