Alternate History No Great Depression. How Long Could The GOP Victory Streak Have Lasted?

[Zyobot]

With Woodrow Wilson's popularity sinking in the aftermath of World War One abroad and backlash against the Progressive movement at home, 1920s America was ripe for change. Campaigning on a theme of "return to normalcy" from his front porch in Ohio, GOP candidate Warren G. Harding crushed his Democratic opposition in a landslide and ushered in an period of Prohibition, prosperity, and pro-business policy that marked a straight decade of Republican domination.

Unfortunately for them, this wasn't to last; the bubble blown up over the GOP's tenure finally burst in October 1929. Left with an economy in free-fall and troubled by outcry from his response to the Bonus Army in the middle of an election year, the one-term presidency served by Herbert Hoover gave way to a Democratic snap-back speared by Franklin D. Roosevelt. With FDR's ascendance into office and the New Deal Coalition now dominant for the next thirty-six-or-so years, the series of Republican drubbings that preceded Roosevelt's rise were brought to a definitive end.

However, if the Great Depression or some equally catastrophic disaster were miraculously avoided on the GOP's watch, then how long could their victory streak have lasted? For one, I assume that voter fatigue combined with the statistical probability that some Republican incumbent messes up at some point means that it won't last forever. And that their replacement will probably be a Democrat, given how entrenched the two-party system is in American politics. Otherwise, I'm not sure what else to predict, though some hypothetical electoral maps depicting the results of 1932 and subsequent elections would be appreciated (YAPMS may be of considerable use here).

Thank you in advance,
Zyobot

 

[Zero]

I doubt F.d.r. would run a third term. Perhaps some other president would go for a third term.

 

[gral]

However, if the Great Depression or some equally catastrophic disaster were miraculously avoided on the GOP's watch, then how long could their victory streak have lasted? For one, I assume that voter fatigue combined with the statistical probability that some Republican incumbent messes up at some point means that it won't last forever.

I suspect with no Depression, Herbert Hoover wins reelection in 1932. After that, I'd say there's voter fatigue against the GOP, and there will be a Democrat president(maybe Al Smith?). Another thing that works against the GOP staying strong in the 1930's: 'No Depression' doesn't mean 'No Dust Bowl'.

 

[History Learner]

You'd probably see them last about as long as the New Deal Coalition did, which is instead of 1932-1952, you'd have 1920 to 1940.

 

[WolfBear]

You'd probably see them last about as long as the New Deal Coalition did, which is instead of 1932-1952, you'd have 1920 to 1940.

Yeah, that sounds more-or-less accurate. The McKinley/TR coalition managed to last for 16 years--1896-1912--and the GOP's civil war coalition managed to last for 24 years--1861-1885, though there was a change of it lasting even longer had Blaine gotten an extra 1,200 votes in New York in 1884.