Asia-Pacific Military Coup in Myanmar

[Husky_Khan]

Correction: Myanmar story

NAYPYITAW, Myanmar (AP) — In Feb. 1 coverage of the military coup in Myanmar, The Associated Press erroneously reported that an announcement of the takeover linked the move in part on the government’s decision to allow the November 2020 election to proceed despite the coronavirus pandemic.

apnews.com

In 2015, longtime Human Rights and Pro-Democracy Advocate Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League for Democracy or NLD, successfully earned a majority in both Myanmar Houses in the first openly contested election in the country since 1990 (Burma/Myanmar has been under a military junta since 1962). Aung's international reputation suffered greatly however internationally due to her willingness to work with the Military Junta and quietly supporting their efforts in suppressing the Muslim Rohingya minority in recent years, perhaps in exchange for relaxing the Military Junta's authoritarian grip on the country and eventually leading the country onto the path of democracy. Still described as an "authoritarian state" by many analysts, sanctions and embargoes had slackened on Burma these past few years.

It seems that flirtation with Democracy has come to an end. Most of the NLD leadership including Aung San Suu Kyi, have been arrested (again) as the Military states its actions are justified due to emergency clauses in Myanmar's new Constitution. Phone, television and internet service in the country was severely curtailed as many individuals have removed the red banners NLD flags from their homes and businesses and long lines of people have been spotted at ATM's and banks, attempting to withdraw money as the coup develops.

The coup has received widespread condemnation, at least from the United States and European Union while other countries such as China, India and Bangladesh expressed concern and hope for dialogue between the military and government. To its end the military announced there would be new free and fair elections within a year though it seems doubtful they intend the current NLD leadership to be a large part of it.

 

[Abhorsen]

Given Aung San Suu Kyi was basically defending a genocide there, there wasn't much democracy to lose.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Given Aung San Suu Kyi was basically defending a genocide there, there wasn't much democracy to lose.

I distinctly remember that while the Rohingya purges were first making the news, Aung San Suu Kyi's defenders (the ones who weren't just saying that the Rohingya straight up deserved it) were mainly arguing that she had no choice, because her position was too weak and not appeasing the military brass would cause them to depose her.

Well, turns out compromising with genocidal fascists (who have targeted a lot more than just the Rohingya in the past, BTW) still never ends well. She could have gone down in history as a principled martyr for democracy and human rights who was overthrown by said genocidal fascists for not bowing to their demands, but instead she's going to be remembered as someone who sold out her principles to appease them and got overthrown anyway.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Is this 3rd or 4th military coup in the last 3 or 4 decades?

Seems like the military has a pretty tight schedule when it comes to coup de etes.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I think this is 'just' the 3rd coup in Burma's modern history. They still have quite a ways to go to beat Thailand's record.

 

[PsihoKekec]

This democracy was just a window dressing for continuous military rule anyway, but I guess only having actual power in the country was not enough for generals, they wanted nominal power as well.

 

[ParadiseLost]

This democracy was just a window dressing for continuous military rule anyway, but I guess only having actual power in the country was not enough for generals, they wanted nominal power as well.

The problem was that in the last elections at the end of 2020, the Military backed party in Burma lost by an embarrassing margin.

This coup was basically a way to save face.

 

[Husky_Khan]

Reminder for all of you Americans worried about your own political futures.



Political Unrest is no excuse for not going outside and staying active.

 

[Airedale260]

I think this is 'just' the 3rd coup in Burma's modern history. They still have quite a ways to go to beat Thailand's record.

I had to look it up because I know 1962 was one; 1988 was the other I found out.

Also, Thailand is ‘only’ #3 with 21. Haiti actually holds the record with 27, then Iran with 25.

The problem was that in the last elections at the end of 2020, the Military backed party in Burma lost by an embarrassing margin.

This coup was basically a way to save face.

It’s really sad that I missed that Burma actually had elections. OTOH there was a lot going on here, so...meh.

If it weren’t for 1) We really don’t need another military operation going on right now, 2) the Chinese would probably get extremely hostile and possibly shoot at us, and 3) we don’t have many good options anyway, I’d say just launch a series of air strikes against the Tatmadaw just to try and knock them out. I mean the country is an ongoing disaster and they persist in building a brand new capital city with a friggin’ 20-lane highway and other ludicrous perks.

 

[Buba]

There is nothing fascist about the Burmese military. They simply are a bunch of thugs, nothing more. Just as well could be called commies.

 

[gral]

I mean the country is an ongoing disaster and they persist in building a brand new capital city with a friggin’ 20-lane highway and other ludicrous perks.

Actually, it makes some sense for the Tatmadaw to build a new capital - it helps them project power at the rebelling minorities in the north. Naypyidaw is also a study in architecture - it's designed to be as hard for a mob to take control of it as possible, with features like widely dispersed governmental buildings, with open spaces guaranteeing clear fields of fire for defenders, and lots of tunnels(built with NK assistance, who have plenty of knowledge in hiding things by burying them). Also, those wide highways? They are airstrips, so transport aircraft can land directly on them and unload troops.

Now, could the money spent on building it be used for better things? Of course. But Burma has been a dictatorship for a long time; there are few(if any) things more important than ensuring the survival of the regime.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I'm curious as to how broad Biden's threatened 'appropriate action' will be. Just a bunch of sanctions or something more than that? I did expect him to start a war at some point, but Burma wasn't in my top 5 guesses.

There is nothing fascist about the Burmese military. They simply are a bunch of thugs, nothing more. Just as well could be called commies.

Actually, IIRC as part of the post-1988 Burmese junta's efforts to drop their old Burmese Way to Socialism schtick & transition away from a Communist dictatorship they also opened up their economy somewhat, but insisted on co-owning as many (now-not-so-)private enterprises or otherwise subordinating them to state needs (which is to say, of course, their own).

Now I'm not an expert on fascist economics but it does seem to fit the bill as I understand it, and coupled with their Burmese ultranationalism and repression of non-Bamar ethnic groups, well. 'Fascist' seems about as accurate a descriptor, and certainly less of a mouthful, than 'strato-narco-kleptocrats'.

 

[Terthna]

I'm curious as to how broad Biden's threatened 'appropriate action' will be. Just a bunch of sanctions or something more than that? I did expect him to start a war at some point, but Burma wasn't in my top 5 guesses.

Burma/Myanmar does share a land border with China; so it's a safe bet that whatever Biden decides will be because it benefits them in some way.

 

[Airedale260]

Actually, it makes some sense for the Tatmadaw to build a new capital - it helps them project power at the rebelling minorities in the north. Naypyidaw is also a study in architecture - it's designed to be as hard for a mob to take control of it as possible, with features like widely dispersed governmental buildings, with open spaces guaranteeing clear fields of fire for defenders, and lots of tunnels(built with NK assistance, who have plenty of knowledge in hiding things by burying them). Also, those wide highways? They are airstrips, so transport aircraft can land directly on them and unload troops.

Now, could the money spent on building it be used for better things? Of course. But Burma has been a dictatorship for a long time; there are few(if any) things more important than ensuring the survival of the regime.

Oh I get that, but still, they’re way past their sell-by dste

I'm curious as to how broad Biden's threatened 'appropriate action' will be. Just a bunch of sanctions or something more than that? I did expect him to start a war at some point, but Burma wasn't in my top 5 guesses.

Actually, IIRC as part of the post-1988 Burmese junta's efforts to drop their old Burmese Way to Socialism schtick & transition away from a Communist dictatorship they also opened up their economy somewhat, but insisted on co-owning as many (now-not-so-)private enterprises or otherwise subordinating them to state needs (which is to say, of course, their own).

Now I'm not an expert on fascist economics but it does seem to fit the bill as I understand it, and coupled with their Burmese ultranationalism and repression of non-Bamar ethnic groups, well. 'Fascist' seems about as accurate a descriptor, and certainly less of a mouthful, than 'strato-narco-kleptocrats'.

My guess is some sanctions and a lot of hot air. Biden’s one who generally shies away from military action even when they should be send it (see the Bin Laden raid for example). Granted he might be dumb enough to blunder into a war but that would be kind of difficult to do at least with Burma.

 

[Terthna]

My guess is some sanctions and a lot of hot air. Biden’s one who generally shies away from military action even when they should be send it (see the Bin Laden raid for example). Granted he might be dumb enough to blunder into a war but that would be kind of difficult to do at least with Burma.

Considering Biden's close ties to China, and mounting senility; whatever the decision is, it probably won't be his.

 

[Jormungandr]

Considering Biden's close ties to China, and mounting senility; whatever the decision is, it probably won't be his.

"Move our troops into Iraq!"
"...You mean Burma, sir?"
"Yes! We'll drop in the 101st in West Saigon at 03:00!"
"...Look, sir! Jingly keys!"
"...Man, who would have ever thought the keys to the nuclear command code briefcase would be used in such a way."

 

[Airedale260]

"Move our troops into Iraq!"
"...You mean Burma, sir?"
"Yes! We'll drop in the 101st in West Saigon at 03:00!"
"...Look, sir! Jingly keys!"
"...Man, who would have ever thought the keys to the nuclear command code briefcase would be used in such a way."

Honestly, at that point just pull a Clinton and launch a bunch of air and missile strikes if you want to take action. Burma has maybe 6-12 Su-30s and I think another 6-12 JF-17s; the rest are a combination of MiG-29s, MiG-21s*, and MiG-19s* for crying out loud. If the USN and USAF are incapable of wrecking Burma’s IADS and their military assets...that’s a real problem.

Besides, it’s probably useful if we were to actually fight aircraft that are piloted by people who are infinitely more competent than Iraqis...

*-They’re actually the licensed versions that were built by China, J-6 and J-7.

Edit: Oh and I’m not sure this was intended in the joke but if so major props: the 101st hasn’t had parachutes since 1968; they’re air assault troops. The 82nd is the Rapid Deployment Force.

 

[Marduk]

And what would be the point of that?
Considering the numbers and reputation, i would be positively surprised if more than 1 in 3 of these aircraft are operational even before being shot at.
We know USA has neither interest nor will to take control of the place and "nation build", so any intervention is going to be pretty much military version of action for the sake of doing something, without any expectation of achieving some kind of concrete victory condition.

When push comes to shove, Myanmar is mostly a problem of India, China, and in particular, Bangladesh. 2 of these have massive armies and a land border, and Bangladesh is not a particularly close or important US ally, it may in fact be closer to China. So, it seems like a great opportunity to sit back, have a beer, and see your enemies struggle with their own problems for once.

I distinctly remember that while the Rohingya purges were first making the news, Aung San Suu Kyi's defenders (the ones who weren't just saying that the Rohingya straight up deserved it) were mainly arguing that she had no choice, because her position was too weak and not appeasing the military brass would cause them to depose her.

Well, turns out compromising with genocidal fascists (who have targeted a lot more than just the Rohingya in the past, BTW) still never ends well. She could have gone down in history as a principled martyr for democracy and human rights who was overthrown by said genocidal fascists for not bowing to their demands, but instead she's going to be remembered as someone who sold out her principles to appease them and got overthrown anyway.

Technically its more of an ethnic cleansing campaign than genocide, as vast majority of the victims are more or less "encouraged" to leave (and Myanmar being as poor as it is, it doesn't take much encouraging), mostly for Pakistan and Bangladesh, rather than ending up dead.
As for the rest... Its a typical, third world story of the situation not exactly fitting well into a western simple movie style narrative of innocent victims and evil for the hell of it oppressors.
Its the more common case of both sides being heavy on assholes, and one set of assholes having more firepower than the other, all in a soup of historical beef that goes back a few centuries and heavily contests who used to and as such who should really rule a piece of land in the west parts of Myanmar; the military government and its allied ethnic groups consider most Rohingya to be descendants of very unwanted immigrants from Bangladesh moved there back when the whole region was British Empire, for its own purposes.

 

[Airedale260]

And what would be the point of that?
Considering the numbers and reputation, i would be positively surprised if more than 1 in 3 of these aircraft are operational even before being shot at.
We know USA has neither interest nor will to take control of the place and "nation build", so any intervention is going to be pretty much military version of action for the sake of doing something, without any expectation of achieving some kind of concrete victory condition.

When push comes to shove, Myanmar is mostly a problem of India, China, and in particular, Bangladesh. 2 of these have massive armies and a land border, and Bangladesh is not a particularly close or important US ally, it may in fact be closer to China. So, it seems like a great opportunity to sit back, have a beer, and see your enemies struggle with their own problems for once.

Oh, that was just frustration talking. In all honesty I don’t think there are many good options.

Though I would dispute that it’s not America’s problem: contesting China’s influence there is important to our interests, same as them leaning on Taiwan or the Philippines. The Chinese don’t give a fuck who is running the show as long as they aren’t hostile to China.

As far as nation building goes, Burma really isn’t a place where we want to put boots on the ground, not least because it will encourage China to do the same. I think we need to do more than just slap sanctions on them, but we are kind of limited in the pressure we can bring to bear.

 

[Marduk]

Oh, that was just frustration talking. In all honesty I don’t think there are many good options.

Though I would dispute that it’s not America’s problem: contesting China’s influence there is important to our interests, same as them leaning on Taiwan or the Philippines. The Chinese don’t give a fuck who is running the show as long as they aren’t hostile to China.

As far as nation building goes, Burma really isn’t a place where we want to put boots on the ground, not least because it will encourage China to do the same. I think we need to do more than just slap sanctions on them, but we are kind of limited in the pressure we can bring to bear.

Exactly. Western countries are locked out of good options between the place being too easy to muscle in by China, not being willing to pay the blood and gold for outright taking the place over, and being to a large degree politically unable to make friendship deals with the local mean guys with guns, which China can do. There's only half-assed options and doing nothing, and i suggest doing nothing is the better option. The alternative is to spend political capital and PR damage for no lasting material result at all.

Taiwan and Philippines are in a different situation because their governments are more pro-western (in former case by absolute necessity) and aren't the PR hot potato the Junta is when it comes to making deals with them.