The Americas Mexican trouble

[Marduk]

With all the news increasingly chaotic events there, why not make a thread about it all.

Starting with the most recent, there is the controversy about the battle that the Mexican military just had in Culiacan against the Sinaloa cartel - which the military has either lost or withdrawn from, depending on how one interpret the events and stated reasoning, in the end releasing captured sons of the infamous "El Chapo":

A Drug Cartel Just Defeated The Mexican Military In Battle

Mexico is in a state of collapse, and Americans need to realize that the crisis underway south of the Rio Grande won’t stop at the border.

thefederalist.com

The comment about "preventing war" with cartels are... interesting.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/major-gun-battle-in-mexico-pits-security-forces-against-el-chapos-son/2019/10/17/c28d174a-f149-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html

Not really a break from what AMLO is known for thinking on the topic:

Mexico’s President Says the War on Drugs Is Over. Not All Mexicans Agree.

AMLO’s new drug policies are a gamble, with implications on everything from internal displacements to international relations.

www.thenation.com

In the beginning of the year, a massive fuel theft crisis was on the news, particularly when an accident during the process has killed many people, it was significant enough to cause fuel shortages in remote areas.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2019-01-07/mexican-president-says-fuel-theft-plan-working-despite-shortages

Mexico fuel pipeline blast kills 73, witnesses describe horror

At least 73 people were killed after a pipeline ruptured by suspected fuel thieves exploded in central Mexico, authorities said on Saturday, as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador defended the army despite its failure to clear the site before the blast.

www.reuters.com

In the end the main way to limit the phenomenon was to close gas stations.

Mexico's new president has vowed to fight fuel theft, but effects are frustrating motorists

Pres. López Obrador asked for patience from drivers who found gas stations closed as authorities move less fuel through vulnerable pipelines.

www.nbcnews.com

Lets not forget that the "soft of crime" policy was part of the platform of Mexico's current left wing president, and some were predicting unfortunate consequences such policy might have:

AMLO’s Approach To Ending The Cartel Wars Could Inadvertently Backfire

Mexico is therefore in a conundrum because it must urgently deal with the cartels yet there’s no perfect solution for doing so, as the existing “hard” policy has evidently failed while the “soft” o…

orientalreview.org

In addition to that, there Mexico's well known struggle with securing its northern border, with unwanted attention from it's big northern neighbor, while having a clearly related crisis in securing the southern border:

Mexico Struggles to Contain Surge in Central American Migrants

Mexico is struggling to contain a surge of Central American migrants making their way to the U.S. border that has been fueled by a softening of Mexican migration policies and a severe drought in Guatemala.

www.wsj.com

 

[Deleted member]

Here's an analysis of the Narco-Technicals used in the fighting.
Since of course Mexico has managed to become such a functional state that the Narco-gangs now are openly driving around with uparmoured technicals with improvised machine gun turrets.

 

[Captain X]

The fun part is that there are people claiming they got those .50 cals and rocket launchers from American gun stores.

 

[prinCZess]

Ending the 'War(s) on Drugs' works and should be supported in a specific context--that context being when the 'War' is focused upon nonviolent users and distributors in predominantly underserved, underpoliced areas, and it could even be stretched to cover some degree of the gang-violence which is focused upon other gangs that such a war produces and bizarrely incentivizes.

The cartels are far above and beyond even that stretched and arguable 'gangwar' context because--as this and years of oppressive and violent policies notably including the murder of law-enforcement commanders/officers and kidnapping and murder of Miriam Rodriguez, not to mention I'm sure a host of other incidents less well-known, demonstrate--they are quite willing to preemptively go after law-enforcement and even civilians who pose any kind of challenge to their trafficking and operations. A 'War on Drugs' can't be ended unilaterally when the opposing force is more than happy to carry out a war on governance and civil society--and in the Mexican context specifically such has more in common with that common refrain (and problem-causing phenomenon) of 'negotiating with terrorists' than it does civil policing.

The US can (and should) pursue a host of reforms in our drug laws, criminal sentencing, and regulations/policies which could hamper the power and influence of the cartels--in regards to drugs and human trafficking matters especially--while simultaneously not bathing the streets in blood and violence because criminal organizations have de facto control of things. Mexico doesn't have that luxury of action because the criminal organizations already have massive levels of influence and power. The situation is more allegorical to the American mob in Chicago and NYC than our generic Drug Wars against gangland distributors and users--and in the modern era the US notably only made deals with the mob in Chicago and NYC when the public prosecutors and law enforcement were corrupt, not as a general matter of course and public policy. Mexico seems to need a 70s-80s US style of mass infiltration, arrest, and power-breaking of the cartels...Instead, they're capitulating to them because the cartels are powerful enough to threaten public order and pose a significant challenge to the Federales/Military.

...But, then, there's an unfortunate degree of corruption in the Mexican government that's fine with cooperating with the cartels for money (and won't stop because they'll be kidnapped and get their heads chopped off), and as shitty as it feels to guess it, that seems suspiciously like something which may have been involved in the cluster of an operation that went after Chapo's kid? The authorities being told to wait after making themselves known cynically reads like someone in the chain of command was giving the cartel time to respond.

 

[Deleted member]

@prinCZess It's actually bad enough to the point where the Navy is normally used as the elite anti-cartel force because the Army isn't seen as reliable enough to execute operations against the cartels. So, essentially, the Mexican equivalent of Navy SEALs are their only effective anti-cartel force, with the naval MPs providing the backing force.

 

[Doomsought]

If it walks like a duck, if it quaks like a duck.. its a hostile military force. I think this has crossed the line where we can declare them to be non-uniformed combatants rather than criminals, and apply force as appropriate.

 

[Scottty]

If it walks like a duck, if it quaks like a duck.. its a hostile military force. I think this has crossed the line where we can declare them to be non-uniformed combatants rather than criminals, and apply force as appropriate.

They might start wearing uniforms. By the looks of it, they are becoming the de facto government in parts of Mexico.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

They might start wearing uniforms. By the looks of it, they are becoming the de facto government in parts of Mexico.

How much is the West aware of this? It seems to me when talks of illegal immigration and cartels are involved, talk about cartels and you’ll be told that you are racist and that they make up only a very small percentage of the illegal Mexicans coming through

Even a small percentage is a great bolster to their operations in the USA alongside the ability to tale advantage of the other Mexicans and get with their contacts

The illusion of them NOT being the government is something that can be maintained or selectively seen by people

 

[Deleted member]

Mexico City is so large and the government maintains order there and in some other large cities so there’s an illusion of control which prevents people from realising how close to a failed state that Mexico has become.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Mexico City is so large and the government maintains order there and in some other large cities so there’s an illusion of control which prevents people from realising how close to a failed state that Mexico has become.

Say, any chance that the Cartels will push for things like prostitution and drugs to be legal? But barely taxed

 

[FriedCFour]

The fun part is that there are people claiming they got those .50 cals and rocket launchers from American gun stores.

Have you got any links? I need something to laugh at.

 

[Marduk]

Say, any chance that the Cartels will push for things like prostitution and drugs to be legal? But barely taxed

Why would they? These things being illegal just means they can take a premium on providing them, and state gratiously will curb their minor competition for them.

Mexico City is so large and the government maintains order there and in some other large cities so there’s an illusion of control which prevents people from realising how close to a failed state that Mexico has become.

Common story with failed states. The government controls the capital, it's nearby areas, and perhaps few important tourist/resource extraction locations, and most of the rest is in various degree of control and conflict between warlords/militias/criminals/whatevers.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Why would they? These things being illegal just means they can take a premium on providing them, and state gratiously will curb their minor competition for them.

Good point, you know I recall this on article that tried going on about how the Prohibition Era’s illegalization of alcohol actually reduced alcoholism and other behavioral problems associated with it, even as organised crime grew

I think it was made to justify the banning of other products or goods or tools, as obviously the people can’t want or need those things that much and the Black Market isn’t a big threat or something

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Common story with failed states. The government controls the capital, it's nearby areas, and perhaps few important tourist/resource extraction locations, and most of the rest is in various degree of control and conflict between warlords/militias/criminals/whatevers.

You know, I think I’d prefer dealing with outright corporations than the latter and going on about CapitalismBad and “Regulations” that fail at helping and backfire

 

[DarthOne]

Bring the troops home, post them on the border and finish the wall.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

Bring the troops home, post them on the border and finish the wall.

They will look like assholes for being on the border

 

[LordsFire]

They will look like assholes for being on the border

If that's the worst thing that happens to your military, it's in pretty good shape.

I certainly think that 10-40k troops deployed to the southern border would have a distinct effect on the immigration problem.

 

[DarthOne]

They will look like assholes for being on the border

So? Their entire job it to protect the country. Might as well use them for that instead of having them over in the cluster fuck that is the middle east.

 

[FriedCFour]

So? Their entire job it to protect the country. Might as well use them for that instead of having them over in the cluster fuck that is the middle east.

I'd certainly take a deployment to chill out with the best bbw (big beautiful wall) over going to Syria or Afghanistan any day.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

If that's the worst thing that happens to your military, it's in pretty good shape.

I certainly think that 10-40k troops deployed to the southern border would have a distinct effect on the immigration problem.

So? Their entire job it to protect the country. Might as well use them for that instead of having them over in the cluster fuck that is the middle east.

They will be called Baby Killers

At least most sympathetically, they would be likened to the Poor Men fighting a Rich Man's War

I'd certainly take a deployment to chill out with the best bbw (big beautiful wall) over going to Syria or Afghanistan any day.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there complaints even when soldiers are sent to fight over there?