Russia(gate/bot) Kazakhstan Declares State of Emergency

[Husky_Khan]

Kazakhstan has declared a national state of emergency, ostensibly in response to protests due to a hike in fuel prices. Protesters reportedly stormed several government buildings and clashed with law enforcement both in Kazakhstans economic/financial capitol of Almaty and their actual capitol city of Nur-Sultan.

Kazakhstan unrest: Ex-intelligence chief arrested for treason

Karim Massimov's arrest comes in the wake of violent, nationwide anti-government protests.

www.bbc.com

Twenty six protesters (described by the Interior Ministry as 'violent criminals') and eighteen police officers have allegedly been killed since the start of the protests several days ago which have continued and broadened into seemingly general anti-government protests against Kazakhstan's current President Kassym-Jomart-Tokayev. Tokayev has asked the CSTO and President Vladimir Putin of Russia for assistance in combating this "terrorism" while also alledging they are foreign trained and sponsored. At least one government official, Karim Massimov, the former intelligence chief for the country, has also been arrested. Also upwards of four thousand protesters have been detained.

Russia and Kyrgyzstan are reportedly going to deploy military forces to Kazakhstan to help stabilize the situation.

 

[gral]

Karim Massimov(the arrested chief of intelligence) is supposed to be deeply connected with the previous president, Nursultan Nazarbayev(who was president of the Kazakh SSR, and became president of Kazakhstan from 1991 to 2019), so it's possible that Tokayev is taking the opportunity to do ye olde purging of figures too close to the previous regime.

 

[Sobek]

A few points to keep in mind: You might have seen western media try and explain this away as being just the response to "high fuel prices" but that is not quite what happened. It is, but a very reductive way to explain it.

Kazahkstan had a state imposed freeze on the price of liquid petroleum gas, which is the main source of fuel for the nation. This was a very deep, very close to the metal type of freeze. The price that they were controlling was not the one on the fuel pump on the gas station but ALL of it, because it was down to the stuff coming from refineries. So when this freeze was undone the entire petroleum ecosystem of the country had to catch up and so you saw pretty much everything skyrocket in price.

Gas for cars, price of food transported by trucks, kitchen gas for the stoves, all of it shot up.

The second point to keep in mind is that this is a ex-SSR that is very authoritarian, and as such the responses are always heavy handed. The fact there has been so "little" violence so far and some cities have had local police straight up not enforce the government mandates is a big deal, and hints this could be something pretty big.

And finally, one last thing: Biden was sworn in almost exactly 1 year ago. We all know how much the CIA and the Deep State love Color Revolutions. Keep that in mind, we could be seeing delusional byzantine bureaucrats trying to use the same tricks they used back in the 1st Obama term to expand the US Hegemony without a hint of self awareness of how it just doesn't work no matter how many times you hire some fat fuck sociologist to "analyze the situation" and some brain dead schmuck punch clock CIA to "arm moderate rebels". So far we little in the way of proof that this is a Color Revolution, but the M.O. is suspicious and we should not just jump into it without analyzing.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Arch Dornan]

Are the glowies at it again?

 

[Cherico]

Are the glowies at it again?

They never stopped.

 

[Arch Dornan]

They never stopped.

How else do they justify their budget?

 

[49ersfootball]

They never stopped.

Something tells me this will NOT end well!

 

[Cherico]

Something tells me this will NOT end well!

In the CIAs defence

 

[Rocinante]

TIL that Kazakhstan is a real country

 

[WolfBear]

TIL that Kazakhstan is a real country

It was already that way ever since Borat!

 

[WolfBear]

A few points to keep in mind: You might have seen western media try and explain this away as being just the response to "high fuel prices" but that is not quite what happened. It is, but a very reductive way to explain it.

Kazahkstan had a state imposed freeze on the price of liquid petroleum gas, which is the main source of fuel for the nation. This was a very deep, very close to the metal type of freeze. The price that they were controlling was not the one on the fuel pump on the gas station but ALL of it, because it was down to the stuff coming from refineries. So when this freeze was undone the entire petroleum ecosystem of the country had to catch up and so you saw pretty much everything skyrocket in price.

Gas for cars, price of food transported by trucks, kitchen gas for the stoves, all of it shot up.

The second point to keep in mind is that this is a ex-SSR that is very authoritarian, and as such the responses are always heavy handed. The fact there has been so "little" violence so far and some cities have had local police straight up not enforce the government mandates is a big deal, and hints this could be something pretty big.

And finally, one last thing: Biden was sworn in almost exactly 1 year ago. We all know how much the CIA and the Deep State love Color Revolutions. Keep that in mind, we could be seeing delusional byzantine bureaucrats trying to use the same tricks they used back in the 1st Obama term to expand the US Hegemony without a hint of self awareness of how it just doesn't work no matter how many times you hire some fat fuck sociologist to "analyze the situation" and some brain dead schmuck punch clock CIA to "arm moderate rebels". So far we little in the way of proof that this is a Color Revolution, but the M.O. is suspicious and we should not just jump into it without analyzing.

A color revolution in Kazakhstan would have much less value than one in, say, Belarus since Kazakhstan can't be pulled as easily into the Western orbit due to its geographic location.

 

[Cherico]

A color revolution in Kazakhstan would have much less value than one in, say, Belarus since Kazakhstan can't be pulled as easily into the Western orbit due to its geographic location.

right now Russia is facing issues in the Ukraine, the balts, add in Kazakhstan and Russias terminal demographics and if you can set that on fire all at once? That takes russia out of the great power game for at least a generation.

 

[WolfBear]

right now Russia is facing issues in the Ukraine, the balts, add in Kazakhstan and Russias terminal demographics and if you can set that on fire all at once? That takes russia out of the great power game for at least a generation.

Russia's demographics right now aren't too bad, actually. Better than Japan's, that's for sure. By 2100, Russia might have 120-130 million people to Japan's 80-90 million people. Russia has low birth rates but still has a lot of room for improvement in regards to things such as life expectancy.

 

[Cherico]

Russia's demographics right now aren't too bad, actually. Better than Japan's, that's for sure. By 2100, Russia might have 120-130 million people to Japan's 80-90 million people. Russia has low birth rates but still has a lot of room for improvement in regards to things such as life expectancy.

its not just that their educational system basically imploded during the 90s collasped so their running out of the skilled people to keep it going and the populations in russia that are growing are in regions with seperatist histories. They essentally have a narrow amount of time to move in before all of these problems hit them.

 

[WolfBear]

its not just that their educational system basically imploded during the 90s collasped so their running out of the skilled people to keep it going and the populations in russia that are growing are in regions with seperatist histories. They essentally have a narrow amount of time to move in before all of these problems hit them.

Russia is around 85% Slavic right now. Separatism is a problem limited to peripheral areas like Chechnya, and even they can be bought off. And Russia still had a lot of smart and skilled people, especially in places such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

 

[Chiron]

Russia is around 85% Slavic right now. Separatism is a problem limited to peripheral areas like Chechnya, and even they can be bought off. And Russia still had a lot of smart and skilled people, especially in places such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The issue is convincing them to have kids instead of drowning in vodka and frat parties. The other problem is Putin hasn't cracked down on the oligarchs who are a net drain. Putin deserves credit for stabilizing Russia, but he needs to move towards convincing the current child bearing generation to have kids and lots of them with moms staying home and dads working.

 

[WolfBear]

The issue is convincing them to have kids instead of drowning in vodka and frat parties. The other problem is Putin hasn't cracked down on the oligarchs who are a net drain. Putin deserves credit for stabilizing Russia, but he needs to move towards convincing the current child bearing generation to have kids and lots of them with moms staying home and dads working.

Russia doesn't have anywhere near as much of an alcoholism problem right now as it had 15-20 years ago.

 

[History Learner]

CSTO definitely has learned the correct playbook after dealing with the Maidan in 2014 and Belarus in 2020. China was also, apparently, helping to an extent too, which is a bonus in a clash of Superpowers.

 

[Bacle]