Had Trump been reelected in 2020, do you think that Putin would have still invaded Ukraine?

[WolfBear]

Had Trump been reelected in 2020, do you think that Putin would have still invaded Ukraine? What are your own thoughts on this?

FWIW, Trump Russia adviser Fiona Hill doubts this since Putin viewed Biden as a more respectable negotiating partner than Trump, thus ironically (in her opinion) spurring Putin to invade Ukraine since he believed that he and Biden could subsequently reach a deal over spheres of influence and whatnot more easily than he could under Trump, whom he viewed as being easily distracted:

Putin ‘had to keep explaining things to Trump’, ex-White House aide says

Fiona Hill, a former national security council official, said Russian leader grew frustrated with Trump: ‘Putin doesn’t like to do that’

www.theguardian.com

https://news.yahoo.com/fiona-hill-says-putin-got-202020727.html

Anyway, what do you think?

 

[Zachowon]

No.
Because Trump would have either said your forces go across we will nuke or put US forces in Ukraine

 

[Arch Dornan]

He wouldn't dare. Trump criticised Obama for losing the Crimea so he'll follow through with his threats.

 

[The Whispering Monk]

No.

There's a reason Putin waited for Biden to do this.

 

[WolfBear]

He wouldn't dare. Trump criticised Obama for losing the Crimea so he'll follow through with his threats.

Trump also said that Crimeans prefer Russian rule:

Trump is Factually Right on Crimea

In a recent interview with ABC for which he is now taking flak, Trump said: As usual, Trump is right and cannot be stumped. Above is a list I compiled half a year ago with all the most prominent polls and referendums ever held that directly or indirectly queried Crimeans on their attitudes...

www.unz.com

 

[LordsFire]

Biden is obviously incompetent, weak, and senile.

Trump was none of these things, and he believed in always negotiating from a position of strength.

Putin wouldn't have dared try shit like this while Trump was in office.

 

[WolfBear]

Biden is obviously incompetent, weak, and senile.

Trump was none of these things, and he believed in always negotiating from a position of strength.

Putin wouldn't have dared try shit like this while Trump was in office.

Negotiating from a position of strength over Ukraine means not having the US withdraw from NATO during Trump's second term.

 

[LordsFire]

Negotiating from a position of strength over Ukraine means not having the US withdraw from NATO during Trump's second term.

...How is this supposed to be related to this?

 

[WolfBear]

...How is this supposed to be related to this?

It's related to your point here.

 

[ATP]

Negotiating from a position of strength over Ukraine means not having the US withdraw from NATO during Trump's second term.

He do not widraw from Poland,and it is only place when USA forces must remain to hold kgbstan.Well,Germany too - but there only to control germans so they could not ally officially with Moscov.

And no,Putin would not dare yo even think about invading.

 

[WolfBear]

And no,Putin would not dare yo even think about invading.

Why not?

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Trump straight up told Putin he'd destroy Moscow if he pulled a Crimea on Trump's watch.

 

[WolfBear]

Trump straight up told Putin he'd destroy Moscow if he pulled a Crimea on Trump's watch.

Oh, right, because the guy who wanted to pull the US out of NATO would be willing to risk a nuclear war over Mariupol!

 

[The Whispering Monk]

Oh, right, because the guy who wanted to pull the US out of NATO would be willing to risk a nuclear war over Mariupol!

You'll notice that Putin didn't invade other countries while Trump was President.

 

[LordsFire]

Oh, right, because the guy who wanted to pull the US out of NATO would be willing to risk a nuclear war over Mariupol!

Trump threatened to pull out of NATO if the other nations didn't start actually meeting their obligations.

You notice what came of that?

 

[bintananth]

You notice what came of that?

Absolutely nothing.

The US spends more on the US military than most other countries do - including China and Russia - combined.

The only NATO countries which outspend Japan are the US, the UK, France, and Germany. The Japanese military is just a self-defense force with a constitutionally limited budget.

 

[Jormungandr]

Absolutely nothing.

The US spends more on the US military than most other countries do - including China and Russia - combined.

The only NATO countries which outspend Japan are the US, the UK, France, and Germany. The Japanese military is just a self-defense force with a constitutionally limited budget.

Actually, with what they've done with their "limited budget", Japan's "self-defence force" puts most modern militaries, and I'm looking at France and Germany in particular here, to utter shame.

They're a JSDF in name only now.

 

[bintananth]

Actually, with what they've done with their "limited budget", Japan's "self-defence force" puts most modern militaries, and I'm looking at France and Germany in particular here, to utter shame.

They're a JSDF in name only now.

Exactly the point I was making, but not in so many words.

 

[AnimalNoodles]

depends if trump kept pushing Ukraine towards NATO and to attack the donbass.

 

[posh-goofiness]

I'm going to take the contrary position. Trump was a strong man; this is obvious. However, it was equally obvious he was being consistently and publicly undermined by his own government. Additionally, the narrative is that Putin is a power hungry lunatic- people who are not of sound mind make irrational decisions. So, yes, given these two points I think we'd still see an invasion of Ukraine.

The real question is what would a Trump administration have done in the face of this invasion?