Bold of you to assume a liberal won't stab the conservatives in the back.
"B-but the democrats said they would like us again if we do as they say!"
t.Repcuck.
The GOP, as it is, is dying. In hopefully 4 years, their voters will be leeched away by a new actually conservative subparty lead by President Trump.
Do keep in mind that the Senate is always on a delay because of both terms and election rotation. A Senator gets 6 years in office and in the US, we stagger them into three classes, so only a third of the senate is up for election. Right now, Class 2 is up for election. Class 2 has been in there since 2014. So the people who were elected in 2014 ran on issues from 2012 - 2014. Even though their positions might have changed, the reason why they were elected will not be anywhere close to the same. A senator who ran on issues in 2014 now has to run on issues in 2020.
That said, this is the upcoming battle ground seats:
2020 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The Republicans are defending 23 seats, the Democrats are defending only 12. So the objective terms show that the Republicans are at a disadvantage, defending twice as many seats as their opponents. That said, looking at the seats up for grabs, most of those are either safe seats or appear to be leaning Republican. Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Iowa are the real battleground states here.
It looks like the Democrats might take North Carolina and Maine. I haven't done a deep dive, but it looks to be strongly in their favor. I can chalk that up to +2 for the Democrats right there. I'm going to predict that Iowa will probably go red in its Senate race. It's only a .5 point lead for the challenger and I think Trump will help drive up support.
That leaves Colorado and Arizona as the battleground states for the Senate. The Dems seem to have the upper hand, but Razorfist seems to think that they can win it. That said, local politicians for the Dems seem pretty corrupt, so we might end up losing Arizona. I think we can probably hold onto Colorado though. RCP is pretty oddly leaning towards the Dems, despite there not appearing to be any polling data about it on said site. The last bit they have is from fucking 2014. So either it's an error of some sort or someone is trying to make the situation look better than it actually is.
Overall, I suspect on the current trajectory, that the Republicans might hold out at 51 Seats vs the Democrats 49. If things go better, we might see 52 seats for Republicans. Keep in mind that if the momentum for either candidate changes, this will change the results of the Senate race too. Trump's nomination could possibly backfire either way, while Biden's debate performance could cost him the entire election if it's not his good day. And I expect (really, hope) that Trump will try and trip him up.
Which brings me to the debates. All someone on Trump's team really needs to do is google what NOT to say to someone with Dementia:
What To Avoid When Speaking With Someone Who Has Dementia - Patient Empowerment Network
If you’ve not met someone who has dementia before, here are few things to avoid when conversing with someone who has dementia.
powerfulpatients.org
Specifically:
- Recall
- Confusing Directions
- Complex Language
- Emotional Subjects
- Impatience
Biden, with years of political experience, lots of coaching, and a potent cocktail, on a good day can probably manage to handle two or three of these questions...even several times in a row. But I can't imagine he's going to be able to handle four or five at once, in quick succession, during what must be one of the most stressful positions you can put someone in. On a bad day...I can't imagine the devastation. Unable to recall facts, unable to follow directions, snapping at people for minor baits, and erupting at subjects too close to home.
That said, Biden does have a few saving graces here. First, Trump speaks rather plainly, so any direct confrontational comment from Trump is likely not going to be hard to understand. Trump may surprise us by saying something more complicated, but I wouldn't bet on it. Would be a neat trick though. Trump too can also get impatient on stage, so in relative terms, Biden getting angry may not look as bad as it might otherwise. It would certainly however, weaken his image as a calm and collected challenger arguing for a return to normalcy.
Personally, I would have avoided putting Biden on the debate stage, but it seems that the Democrats have recently become concerned about the riots. Biden and Pelosi were both denouncing them recently. And there is of course, the greater risk of Biden looking weak by not debating and the outside possibility that Trump would end up debating West, completely gutting Biden's campaign.
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