Effectivness of Drone Warfare Today and in the Past

[Arch Dornan]

Drone attacks are great for the opposer of a guerrilla war. They mean that there is a lower requirement for troops, and means that troops aren't being killed. This really blunts the anti war cause, as the war isn't directly harming many Americans anymore, which means we are much more capable of winning wars of attrition.

If I can meme it the pictures would start first with how every new weapon is unfair to the loser who lacked it right up to when guns are introduced and the loser didn't have them except for swords or spears.

Then comes guerilla warfare where the biggest and baddest force starts crying at how unfair it is they're not willing to commit to open warfare that they're slowly being bled, the civilians back home want the war to stop and more pine boxes are being sent back.

Now today there's the use of drones to reduce casualties and the guerillas scream at how unfair it is the enemy isn't sending out flesh and blood soldiers to deal with them.

I remember this video of a crashed drone that people took out their frustrations on. Better billions of dollars spent than to have a live pilot captured or dead body dragged through the streets.

 

[Deleted member 88]

Drone attacks are great for the opposer of a guerrilla war. They mean that there is a lower requirement for troops, and means that troops aren't being killed. This really blunts the anti war cause, as the war isn't directly harming many Americans anymore, which means we are much more capable of winning wars of attrition.

What wars of attrition have we won? Like...in the past thirty years?

We are losing and have lost Afghanistan. Iraq we had to reconquer territory and blast cities to rubble and even then what the heck we are there for is still unclear(beyond keep iran at bay).

Drones don't allow you to win wars, they allow the state to keep wars ongoing without popular protest or even interest. We have conducted drone strikes in yemen since the early 2000s. We sure as fuck have not won in that benighted country.

 

[Arch Dornan]

What wars of attrition have we won? Like...in the past thirty years?

We are losing and have lost Afghanistan. Iraq we had to reconquer territory and blast cities to rubble and even then what the heck we are there for is still unclear(beyond keep iran at bay).

Drones don't allow you to win wars, they allow the state to keep wars ongoing without popular protest or even interest. We have conducted drone strikes in yemen since the early 2000s. We sure as fuck have not won in that benighted country.

I'm unsure about the definition of winning but it always helps to know what the other is thinking.

From Bin Laden's opinions when he's cooped up in Pakistan he hated and feared them. Kept killing his jihadists faster than they can be replaced and was very paranoid of American surveillance technology.

Bin Laden letters reveal al-Qaida's fears of drone strikes and infiltration

US releases documents seized from house in northern Pakistan where special forces found Bin Laden and shot him dead

www.theguardian.com

 

[Lanmandragon]

If I can meme it the pictures would start first with how every new weapon is unfair to the loser who lacked it right up to when guns are introduced and the loser didn't have them except for swords or spears.

Then comes guerilla warfare where the biggest and baddest force starts crying at how unfair it is they're not willing to commit to open warfare that they're slowly being bled, the civilians back home want the war to stop and more pine boxes are being sent back.

Now today there's the use of drones to reduce casualties and the guerillas scream at how unfair it is the enemy isn't sending out flesh and blood soldiers to deal with them.

I remember this video of a crashed drone that people took out their frustrations on. Better billions of dollars spent than to have a live pilot captured or dead body dragged through the streets.

Guerilla warfare is millennia old at least. Hell the old testament has a bunch of stuff with the Jews doing it. Guerilla warfare is basically the go to move for fighting a stronger opponent. (See also Rome in hispania, and caldeonia aka Scotland)

 

[Arch Dornan]

Guerilla warfare is millennia old at least. Hell the old testament has a bunch of stuff with the Jews doing it. Guerilla warfare is basically the go to move for fighting a stronger opponent. (See also Rome in hispania, and caldeonia aka Scotland)

I know it has a long history. Doesn't always work but it has occurred before.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Given that everyone and their brother are going to be using drones in the next few decades, I fear that someone will be able to blanket counter them at the same time. I would probably give it to North Korea who would develop the countermeasures itself and would likely counter every conceivable drone system under the sun just in case of a final confrontation of NK against SK, the US, and Japan... and the first thing we'll notice about it is our drones shooting at our troops.

At first, we'll assume that this is a fluke or some glitch, but when even the 'autonomous' drones start being subverted, drone warfare is going to be eliminated because there is no way to stop people from subverting the drones and using them against you. You have to stuff an AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) into them to not have them subverted, either that or simply have the drone commander literally within 300 meters from the drone at all times, no matter what because the equivalent of hillbilly Joe Bob got his laptop and radio set and goes out to subvert your drone... and with a handful of clicks does it unless you're within a 0 latency zone to counter it.

 

[PsihoKekec]

There will be combination of EW, AAD and hunter drones, so they will be just another aspect of combined arms warfare, not something deciding on their own.

 

[Aaron Fox]

There will be combination of EW, AAD and hunter drones, so they will be just another aspect of combined arms warfare, not something deciding on their own.

Thing is, it won't be because there are just as many powerful players that don't want it to be a thing as there are powerful players that want it to be a thing. Drones as a whole are a force multiplier, especially in a sensory-demanding environment like the battlefield where every piece of information is vital.

It is likely that there will a short 'era of the drone' before someone like North Korea kills it entirely.

 

[Spartan303]

Okay, something I've been meaning to ask for a while now. How is the Tank armor of tanks, especially Western tanks proving vulnerable to these drones? Mission kill like knocking out the gun or throwing the track is one thing. But these drones are doing catastrophic damage to both Russian tanks and Western tanks. Can someone fill me in on why that is?

 

[Marduk]

Okay, something I've been meaning to ask for a while now. How is the Tank armor of tanks, especially Western tanks proving vulnerable to these drones? Mission kill like knocking out the gun or throwing the track is one thing. But these drones are doing catastrophic damage to both Russian tanks and Western tanks. Can someone fill me in on why that is?

It's because they are ghetto top attack munitions. They take a light, weak AT munition, like, say, an old RPG-7 warhead, add some fins to it, and drop it on top of the tank where the armor is thin, and in most cases doesn't have ERA or composite elements either. Some cheekier cases even involve plain normal hand grenades and aiming for open hatches.
They basically do the same thing anti tank cluster bombs do, except with individual submunitions dropped by a drone in a targeted way.
You basically need WW2/early Cold War level battalion air defense with SPAAGs watching over the tanks to really neutralize this threat the sure and conventional way.

 

[Carrot of Truth]

You basically need WW2/early Cold War level battalion air defense with SPAAGs watching over the tanks to really neutralize this threat the sure and conventional way.

I strongly suspect SPAAG's and early cold war era battalion air defense is about to come back into vogue.

 

[paulobrito]

You need said SPAAGs with improved sensors, Drones are much stealthier (and cheaper) than WW2 Jabos.
Jabos ->Jagbomber->Fighter-Bomber

 

[Marduk]

You need said SPAAGs with improved sensors, Drones are much stealthier (and cheaper) than WW2 Jabos.
Jabos ->Jagbomber->Fighter-Bomber

Sure, but with XXI century electronics such sensors are very much affordable en masse. Long range thermals alone are the economy option at 30-50k per SPAAG.

 

[Bacle]

Okay, something I've been meaning to ask for a while now. How is the Tank armor of tanks, especially Western tanks proving vulnerable to these drones? Mission kill like knocking out the gun or throwing the track is one thing. But these drones are doing catastrophic damage to both Russian tanks and Western tanks. Can someone fill me in on why that is?

The Leo's sent over are mostly older models, including the earlier ones with crap side armor and not much top protection, per some armor/arty guys I know on Discord.

The separate storage for rounds is saving lives and giving crew time to bail, but the munitions being used with FPV drones mean they can manage hits on weakspots that ATGMs would have a hard time hitting as often.

 

[paulobrito]

Sure, but with XXI century electronics such sensors are very much affordable en masse. Long range thermals alone are the economy option at 30-50k per SPAAG.

What you want - considering how well the current models fared in Ukraine - is a modernized Geppard.

 

[Marduk]

What you want - considering how well the current models fared in Ukraine - is a modernized Geppard.

Any models with modernish fire control work fine, it's just quantity that is the issue.
Gepard is an overkill for most common drones, it's something meant to try engage low flying jet bombers.

 

[lloyd007]

Okay, something I've been meaning to ask for a while now. How is the Tank armor of tanks, especially Western tanks proving vulnerable to these drones? Mission kill like knocking out the gun or throwing the track is one thing. But these drones are doing catastrophic damage to both Russian tanks and Western tanks. Can someone fill me in on why that is?

Simple fact is Russia has caught up and surpassed Ukraine wrt drone production / usage since they AND Iran are producing them in centralized factories while Ukraine is stuck with its cottage industry and their suppliers seem to be doing f all (cardboard drones are cool and stealthy... but when Russia is producing more lancet drones alone than those gimmicks? well...)

As said, what Ukraine needs are modern day Gepards and other specific anti drone equipment... which takes a hell of a lot of R&D and then industry to produce since cheap mass drone attacks are something completely new in this war.

 

[Marduk]

Simple fact is Russia has caught up and surpassed Ukraine wrt drone production / usage since they AND Iran are producing them in centralized factories while Ukraine is stuck with its cottage industry and their suppliers seem to be doing f all (cardboard drones are cool and stealthy... but when Russia is producing more lancet drones alone than those gimmicks? well...)

Umm, no, i have no idea where you got this data, but it's ridiculous.
Lancets are very rare in Russia's drone arsenal and have a price tag of a new family car, you must be confusing Shaheds (Iran makes no Lancets) with Lancets, and Shaheds are good only for ghetto terror bombing.
Both sides also use shitloads of modified commercial drones, so it's not exactly cottage industry.

As said, what Ukraine needs are modern day Gepards and other specific anti drone equipment... which takes a hell of a lot of R&D and then industry to produce since cheap mass drone attacks are something completely new in this war.

Not R&D, all of the necessary R&D is already long done, they need a lot of SPAAGs, modern or modernized, preferably more than less mobile, no matter the type.

 

[ATP]

Simple fact is Russia has caught up and surpassed Ukraine wrt drone production / usage since they AND Iran are producing them in centralized factories while Ukraine is stuck with its cottage industry and their suppliers seem to be doing f all (cardboard drones are cool and stealthy... but when Russia is producing more lancet drones alone than those gimmicks? well...)

As said, what Ukraine needs are modern day Gepards and other specific anti drone equipment... which takes a hell of a lot of R&D and then industry to produce since cheap mass drone attacks are something completely new in this war.

i read,that Mosciv produce 40.000 drones per month,compared to 10.000 on Ukraine.
And,they could start producing soviet 23mm guns on trucks - enough for drones.

 

[Marduk]

i read,that Mosciv produce 40.000 drones per month,compared to 10.000 on Ukraine.
And,they could start producing soviet 23mm guns on trucks - enough for drones.

But can they put the right sensors on those trucks?
We know they have problems with thermals even for their multi million dollar tanks.