Business & Finance Economic Fallout: Pandemic, Brandon, Money Printer Go Brr, Ukraine.

DarthOne

☦️
Russia And The End Of The Dollar

Guest Post from John Wilder

“I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure you can inflate construction costs and launder money through it.” – Ozark


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I wonder if everyone can figure out why China built their own Internet now?

Biden has miscalculated. Again. As he has his entire life. He has moved from one miscalculation in his life to the next. So, it’s not surprising that perhaps the greatest failure in the history of the United States has shown up on his watch. Let’s go, Brandon, indeed.


To be fair, it’s not entirely Brandon’s fault. The United States economy, as I’ve gone to great pains to show over my posts, has been hollowed out over the years. We have gone from one that manufactures things and exports goods to one that mainly manufactures movies (we’re very good at that) and consulting and intellectual property and Starbucks™.

The thing that we’ve been best at is printing and then exporting dollars. For decades now, we have been exporting dollars that we printed and then importing stuff like fidget spinners and PEZ®. It was a great deal for us. People used those dollars and we got stuff, but it was essentially a global tax on the rest of the world.

That ability to tax, however, only works as long as people believe that the dollar is worth something, and that the holder of that economic power won’t bend the rules. Just like the bank runs up in Canada started when Trudeau broke the promise that the banks won’t steal people’s money, so the same principle applies to international affairs.

When Russia attacked Ukraine, Biden declared sanctions. Sure that’s a fine idea when dealing with a tiny random country, but Russia isn’t tiny. And Russia isn’t any random country.

Russia is of huge importance to world commerce. Russia exports the stuff that makes modern economies go:

  • Food
  • Steel
  • Fertilizer
  • Titanium
  • Nickel
  • Oil
  • Refined Fuels
  • Natural Gas
  • Coal
  • Gold
In almost every commodity listed above, Russia is in the top five exporting nations. In several commodities, it is the world’s largest exporter. Check out the graphs on energy and wheat when the market gets disrupted:
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What does Russia import?

  • Telephones
  • Car Parts
  • Computers
  • Medicine
Russia also exports nearly double what it imports. If there is a country that is nearly self-sufficient in this world, it’s Russia. There is an economic concept called “autarky” – or a nationwide independence from imports. Looking at the list of companies that are leaving Russia, well, could it be that Russia is better off without them?


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Yes, Pornhub® and OnlyFans™ are on the list. I wonder what the effects will be? 21-year-old girls will have to find jobs that involve wearing clothes?

Russia isn’t independent. But it’s close enough. Most things that it is missing can be bought from either India or China. No iPhones®? China has a bunch of other kinds of phones. And all those businesses that left? It’s not like the Russians don’t know how to make hamburger and buns, so McPutins™ could open up tomorrow, though I’d skip the polonium sauce.

Russians are talking about nationalizing all of the assets of companies that have abandoned them. Why wouldn’t a country do that? Well, other countries could seize the overseas Russian assets.

Oops. Too late. So what’s stopping the Russians?

What is the threat from the West? That Russian audiences won’t have Netflix®? The things that Russia has been denied are, frankly, not very scary. They won’t get to see the next Marvel© movie? Oh, yeah, they also went after Russia’s money and tried to cut it off from the dollar-based economic system and . . . entertainment.

What happens when that bluff is called, when Russia and China decide that they don’t need dollars? What happens when Russia will sell natural gas to Europe only in yuan? Or for gold? Or that they won’t trade their commodities for anything at all?

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The tent collapses, and by that tent I mean the dollar.

I actually think that Joe’s head is so far up . . . well, I’ll be kind and guess that he has Alzheimer’s rather than being this stupid. Oddly, this is viewed as an ideological opportunity by the Leftist henchxirs in Washington. They hate fossil fuels to the point of not caring about the relative plight of the American consumer. Don’t believe me? Listen to them:

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Let them eat electric cars?

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And Joe’s responsible for the invasion, too.

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The goal. No matter what it costs.

But here’s a sign: Joe tried to get meetings with the Saudis and the very friendly folks over at the United Arab Emirates. They wouldn’t return his calls. Imagine: a foreign leader refusing to even talk with the President* of the United States. It’s almost like he’s a fraud?

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One person sums it up . . . .

Beyond that, the price of wheat is getting ready to go even higher. Together, Russia and Ukraine produce over 25% of the wheat exported in the world. A quarter. Ukraine’s planting season has been slightly impacted by current events, and Russian exports might be diverted to feed Ukraine.

The United States is certainly self-sufficient in wheat, but the prices of wheat are like oil: they’re tied to the international price. What happens when a loaf of bread is six dollars? Nothing good. But if there are price controls? Bread will be priced at two dollars. There just won’t be any in stores.

Domestic inflation is bad enough, but what happens when the Saudis start taking gold for oil from the Chinese? Or start paying for Russian wheat with the gold they got from the Chinese? The dollar, once indispensable, is done as the international currency.

The message is loud and clear – the end of the dollar is near. Why is gold up over $2,000? My question is why is gold only up to $2,000? I fully expect that, should Russia succeed, 90% of the dollar’s purchasing power will be gone in the next 14 months.

That will lead to massive changes in our economy, political unrest, and, potentially, the dissolution of the United States as we know it.

Thanks, Joe! Where is ¡Jeb! when we need him?

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posh-goofiness

Well-known member
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Well, I guess the economic apocalypse is not that bad if I can rub the people who advocated for it's noses into the whole disgusting business.
I'm sorry, wot? I'm a hardcore isolationist. You think I advocated for the economic collapse when I've said in other threads that the destruction is by design and perpetrated by evil people?
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Sitrep & the Exodus of Woke Capital by Russians With Attitude
Towards the middle of the show RWA say something very important.
"...grandmothers and grandfathers were right to grow all those potatoes..."

"...in the 90s, people would survive off the produce (they grew at) their dachas..."

Dunno how common this stuff is in the rest of the Eastern Bloc, but back in my youth I'd help my grandparents take care of sheep and goats and plant potatoes in a field, or help water tomatoes and cucumbers.

Most pensioners used to go back to their ancestral villages and do a bit of supplementary farming on the side, with the kids being shipped over there for school breaks often being drafted to help.

A lot of pensioners still do that, even now.

I think that this will become more and more common throughout Europe.

@Butch R. Mann @ATP you guys get to do all that stuff when you were kids?

I remember on friend of mine actually managing to get headless chickens to "race" after he got to decapitate them.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
I "shilled" for Ukraine's right to exist. And I'm Lakota, you stupid Russian bootlicker. If you're going to bash my ethnicity, you damn well better get it right.

I do feel bad for the Ukrainians they have a shit deal, and I'm willing to send them weapons, but In all honesty we have bigger problems closer to home to deal with and if we do intervine....

well look at our recent record, Iraq and afganistan.....yeah the Ukrainians are probally better of if we don't interviene and fuck things up further.
 

Captain X

Well-known member
Osaul
I do feel bad for the Ukrainians they have a shit deal, and I'm willing to send them weapons, but In all honesty we have bigger problems closer to home to deal with and if we do intervine....

well look at our recent record, Iraq and afganistan.....yeah the Ukrainians are probally better of if we don't interviene and fuck things up further.

Honestly, I think it is six of one and half-a-dozen of another. They cannot win without outside help. I am less certain when it comes to intervening, because I know this is not the Spanish Empire at the end of the 19th Century we're talking about here, so we are realistically doing all that can be done. Admittedly, I wish we had better people in charge on our end. But while others seem intent on cheering on the asshole that started this, and on laughing at the Ukrainians for fighting for their homeland, I instead wish them luck. My people also could not win, but we still made a fight, so to the Ukrainians I say, "hoka hey!" "Strong hearts and brave to the front, weak hearts and cowards to the rear."
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Honestly, I think it is six of one and half-a-dozen of another. They cannot win without outside help. I am less certain when it comes to intervening, because I know this is not the Spanish Empire at the end of the 19th Century we're talking about here, so we are realistically doing all that can be done. Admittedly, I wish we had better people in charge on our end. But while others seem intent on cheering on the asshole that started this, and on laughing at the Ukrainians for fighting for their homeland, I instead wish them luck. My people also could not win, but we still made a fight, so to the Ukrainians I say, "hoka hey!" "Strong hearts and brave to the front, weak hearts and cowards to the rear."

I think the Ukranians can win the war, but not in this stage the conventional stage of the conflict. It will be won during the unconventional stage. Because Russian demographics is fucked, seriously fucked and they can not afford to lose too many people, because their educational system completely collapsed 30 years ago and they are running out of people who can run shit.

Every time an army techi dies that is an irreplacable loss, every time they lose a man to a sniper bullet that is another person who can not be replaced. This is a fight the Ukranians can win but man it will suck.
 

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
@Butch R. Mann @ATP you guys get to do all that stuff when you were kids?

I'm from farm, so we grew crops and raised cattle back in the day, before the bureaucratic BS that got piled up in the democratic times made raising cattle impossible for small farmers like us. While we don't have dacha tradition, there is lot of urban gardens for city dwellers to grow their own vegetables, while small farmers (on marginal land) near towns usually combine job in town and farm work to make the ends meet.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
I'm from farm, so we grew crops and raised cattle back in the day, before the bureaucratic BS that got piled up in the democratic times made raising cattle impossible for small farmers like us. While we don't have dacha tradition, there is lot of urban gardens for city dwellers to grow their own vegetables, while small farmers (on marginal land) near towns usually combine job in town and farm work to make the ends meet.
Generally what we do is either retire to the old village or buy a villa in the province, but as of late a lot of villages are getting depopulated, this trend will probably reverse soon.
It reversed already to a degree, thanks to the pandemic, since no one wanted to be cooped up in a small flat and working remote was an option.
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
I think the Ukranians can win the war, but not in this stage the conventional stage of the conflict. It will be won during the unconventional stage. Because Russian demographics is fucked, seriously fucked and they can not afford to lose too many people, because their educational system completely collapsed 30 years ago and they are running out of people who can run shit.

Every time an army techi dies that is an irreplacable loss, every time they lose a man to a sniper bullet that is another person who can not be replaced. This is a fight the Ukranians can win but man it will suck.
Problem is, once it gets to the unconventional stage, Ukrainians who continue to resist are going to have to contend with other Ukrainians who support Russia; which is going to hamstring any attempt at conducting guerilla warfare.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Problem is, once it gets to the unconventional stage, Ukrainians who continue to resist are going to have to contend with other Ukrainians who support Russia; which is going to hamstring any attempt at conducting guerilla warfare.
Goes double for Russians affected by the economic sanctions. They might be anti war but with these sanctions going balls to the max they can take it to saying fuck the west rather than fuck Putin.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Goes double for Russians affected by the economic sanctions. They might be anti war but with these sanctions going balls to the max they can take it to saying fuck the west rather than fuck Putin.
Russia is self-sufficient in food, fertilizers and energy, the sanctions might actually drive costs for domestic consumers in the long run down.

I am sure the people who lost the ability to buy iGarbage, LVMH Veblen goods and BMWs will make for very, very good insurgents, though.
In any case, Ukraine will probably be split in 3 or 4 pieces and all the nationalists will be pushed out of the East and the South towards Lovov, in whatever RUmp Ukrainian state there is left over.

Anyway, here is legendary investor Jim Rogers covering the situation.
His views are:
Sanctions do not work.
But "For Mother Russia" and Black markets do.
Dedollarization speeding up.



here is RealVision's Raoul Pal's take on this as well:
 
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Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Russia is self-sufficient in food, fertilizers and energy, the sanctions might actually drive costs for domestic consumers in the long run down.

I am sure the people who lost the ability to buy iGarbage, LVMH Veblen goods and BMWs will make for very, very good insurgents, though.
In any case, Ukraine will probably be split in 3 or 4 pieces and all the nationalists will be pushed out of the East and the South towards Lovov, in whatever RUmp Ukrainian state there is left over.

Anyway, here is legendary investor Jim Rogers covering the situation.
His views are:
Sanctions do not work.
But "For Mother Russia" and Black markets do.
Dedollarization speeding up.



here is RealVision's Raoul Pal's take on this as well:

Another new iron curtain right?
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Another new iron curtain right?
More like the return to the post-1648, pre-1918 model of international affairs, IMHO.Aka, what was normal for most of humanity for most of human history, IMHO.
Biforcation of the global financial system, with bits of the Western remnant splitting off further.
Split into at least two blocks, with the EU probably giving the USA the finger, forcing everyone to buy Eurofighters, Rafales, Kraut-made tanks and IFVs/APCs, creating an EU army and trying to "peacekeep" in Africa and the Middle East so as to get to resources, probably in their former colonies.
Russia and China placing a hard grip on Central Asia.
Also increasing bypassing of stuff like the WTO and a move to Block-level trade and bilateral ties, with the Spanish probably wanting to get in good with their Cousins in Latin America.
John Mearsheimer, Strauss and Howe and Nassim Nicholas Taleb all being vindicated and the Western Globo Homo End of History neocuck doofuses getting ridiculed, and hopefully tarred and feathered for being buffoons.
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
More like the return to the post-1648, pre-1918 model of international affairs, IMHO.Aka, what was normal for most of humanity for most of human history, IMHO.
Biforcation of the global financial system, with bits of the Western remnant splitting off further.
Split into at least two blocks, with the EU probably giving the USA the finger, forcing everyone to buy Eurofighters, Rafales, Kraut-made tanks and IFVs/APCs, creating an EU army and trying to "peacekeep" in Africa and the Middle East so as to get to resources, probably in their former colonies.
Russia and China placing a hard grip on Central Asia.
Also increasing bypassing of stuff like the WTO and a move to Block-level trade and bilateral ties, with the Spanish probably wanting to get in good with their Cousins in Latin America.
John Mearsheimer, Strauss and Howe and Nassim Nicholas Taleb all being vindicated and the Western Globo Homo End of History neocuck doofuses getting ridiculed, and hopefully tarred and feathered for being buffoons.
So back to when bigger countries do what Russia did to Ukraine which is taking the little countries shit because they have shit there they want?
 

Arch Dornan

Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Instead of an unipolar world we get a mulipolar one, with the US attempt at liberal hegemony dying.
Oh yes it will once one of the leaders don't want to play ball like Putin the rest follow rather than kissing the globohomo ring and get secularly excommunicated with all the sanctions and cancelling and shit.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
Oh yes it will once one of the leaders don't want to play ball like Putin the rest follow rather than kissing the globohomo ring.
Not just that, we will have to move to a more anti-Fragile world, like the one Taleb describes in Antifragile (book) - Wikipedia
TL;DR, we are trying to fix the problems brought about by increased complexity and interdependence by piling more complexity and interdependence atop them, and this has proven to be a very bad idea.
Also, Howe and Strauss in The Fourth Turning observed that civilizations go through annual cycles, and we are supposed to be in the "Happening Time" doom and gloom big mess one.

To the above list I need to add James Burnham since he, too, will be vindicated.
In particular where The Machiavellians and Suicide of the West are concerned.
 

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