EU Dutch Farmers Protest Megathread
- Thread starter Bassoe
- Start date
Skallagrim
Well-known member
They won, in the sense that they are the largest party in every province. But of course, in the Netherlands we have a multi-party system, so being the largest "merely" means that they got between 13% and 33% in every province, and all other parties got less than they did in every province.
In most cases, it'll be possible to cut them out by forming an establishment coalition. In the First Chamber (Dutch Senate), they will have 16 out of 75 seats. Given that other right-wing parties also have a few seats, this is almost enough to ensure that the governing coalition is struck lame... but not quite. The left-wing Labour/Green bloc has precisely enough votes to still prop up the coalition with tacit support. In return for this, they'll demand more left-wing policies.
If the Farmer and Burgher Movement can form right-wing coalitions in some provinces and lead a vocal opposition elsewhere, there may be another land-slide when the next elections take place for the Second Chamber (Dutch House of Representatives)... in 2025.
Until then, the establishment will do anything to prevent early elections, because if the government falls now, they'll lose spectacularly. The hope of the government, now, is that the opposition will lose momentum, so that come 2025, "the shne will have worn off", and the people will vote for the familiar establishment again. Going by past experience, this is a sadly realistic prospect. (But on the other hand, Premier Rutte has been in power for thirteen years now, and people are getting tired of his shit...)
In most cases, it'll be possible to cut them out by forming an establishment coalition. In the First Chamber (Dutch Senate), they will have 16 out of 75 seats. Given that other right-wing parties also have a few seats, this is almost enough to ensure that the governing coalition is struck lame... but not quite. The left-wing Labour/Green bloc has precisely enough votes to still prop up the coalition with tacit support. In return for this, they'll demand more left-wing policies.
If the Farmer and Burgher Movement can form right-wing coalitions in some provinces and lead a vocal opposition elsewhere, there may be another land-slide when the next elections take place for the Second Chamber (Dutch House of Representatives)... in 2025.
Until then, the establishment will do anything to prevent early elections, because if the government falls now, they'll lose spectacularly. The hope of the government, now, is that the opposition will lose momentum, so that come 2025, "the shne will have worn off", and the people will vote for the familiar establishment again. Going by past experience, this is a sadly realistic prospect. (But on the other hand, Premier Rutte has been in power for thirteen years now, and people are getting tired of his shit...)
DarthOne
Well-known member
Assuming the poo doesn’t hit the fan and things don’t go violent before then.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
External factors (like a new banking crisis) could do the trick, but as things stand now... the Dutch are a very "domesticated" people, highly averse to causing any drastic upsets. There will be no revolts here until it becomes the only alternative to literal starvation for a significant fraction of the populace. And we're very far from that point, still.
...But on the positive side: with almost all the votes finally counted, it seems the Farmer and Burgher Movement is getting an additional Senate seat, bringing their total to 17. This will be at the expense of D66. (That's the very incorrectly named "Democrats '66", i.e. the 'progressive elitist' party that is most ardent in trying to destroy the farmers; on the right, they are often called "Demons 666".) So that would be very satisfying. And if it does transpire, it also means that the government is most likely struck lame & will be unable to get legislation through the Senate.
DarthOne
Well-known member
Here’s to hoping. With everything else going on it’d be nice to have some good news.External factors (like a new banking crisis) could do the trick, but as things stand now... the Dutch are a very "domesticated" people, highly averse to causing any drastic upsets. There will be no revolts here until it becomes the only alternative to literal starvation for a significant fraction of the populace. And we're very far from that point, still.
...But on the positive side: with almost all the votes finally counted, it seems the Farmer and Burgher Movement is getting an additional Senate seat, bringing their total to 17. This will be at the expense of D66. (That's the very incorrectly named "Democrats '66", i.e. the 'progressive elitist' party that is most ardent in trying to destroy the farmers; on the right, they are often called "Demons 666".) So that would be very satisfying. And if it does transpire, it also means that the government is most likely struck lame & will be unable to get legislation through the Senate.