ISOT Dixie's Heart Can Stop The Mind. (2020 Alabama ISOTed to 1861)

[Buba]

How does Alabama stand as to petroleum extraction and rafination? It could be hurting lots in this regard.

On the plus side - Alabama probably is the largest maker of steel in the world. Helps in extending railroads outside its borders. Having railroads in neighbouring States in 5'/1524mm track gauge and very lightly built does not help

How much ex-State resources does the Birmingham steel making centre use? And - more importantly - need.

BTW - the CSA just lost. Expect the ACW to end inside a few weeks. Even if Alabama itself succeeds

Questions:
- do VISA/Mastercard cards work? At ATMs and POS terminals?
- what happens to bank accounts at banks which are branches of ex-State institutions?
- do the Food Stamp cards (I don't remember their name) work?

 

[strunkenwhite]

Interestingly, Alabama would now be the most populous state in the Union. Looking at Wikipedia, its population would far surpass 1860's #1, New York (3.88 million).

Alabama would also have a higher percentage of the population of the United States than California has had recently, for reference. Congress will not yet have instituted the arbitrary limit on number of members of the House of Representatives, so we can simply look at how many NY got following the 1860 census and go from there: it got 31, and AL is 14.6-23.17% bigger, so mathematically you'd get anywhere from 4 to 7 seats more than NY. Add in some politics, and AL would very likely be made to use its most recent census numbers and not its most recent reliable estimate, and round down on the number of members and it gets 4 more than NY. At the very least, it would get the same number based on proportion of the nation's population. Any less would be theft at a time when the Union can't afford to press too hard on a deep-South hard-Unionist state.

Of course, this would only take effect in the 1862 elections. For now, Alabama may be stuck with its seven 1860 Representatives—although perhaps an argument could be made to let it swap in its seven 2020 Representatives (hey, fun coincidence!) along with the two Senators. And here I thought Alabama was all done with its Democrat-to-Republican party swapping.

The numbers I found:
AL2020: 2019 est. 4,779,745 or 2010 census 4,447,100
US1860: 31,443,322 (incl. 3,953,762 slaves, so 29,861,817 for representative purposes)
AL1860: 964,201 (529,121 free, 435,080 slave; 790,169 for representative purposes)
AH1860: AL+29,071,648=33,518,748 of which AL is 13.27-14.12%
Higher % than New York in 1860 (13%) or California in 2010 (12.07%)

edit: Also, after the situation reveals itself I expect some bright lad in the state legislature to propose adding copies of amendments 13, 14, 15, 24, 26 and possibly 17 to the state constitution.
13: no slaves;
14: birthright citizenship, due process, equal protection, privileges and immunities;
15: right to vote (race/ex-slaves);
24: right to vote (poll tax);
26: right to vote (18 year olds);
17: direct election of US Senators (can the state legislature delegate its own duty in this way?)

I understand that amendment 19 (right to vote: women) is already taken care of in the state constitution; others may also be in the constitution or in law.

 

[Abhorsen]

Of course, this would only take effect in the 1862 elections. For now, Alabama may be stuck with its seven 1860 Representatives—although perhaps an argument could be made to let it swap in its seven 2020 Representatives (hey, fun coincidence!) along with the two Senators. And here I thought Alabama was all done with its Democrat-to-Republican party swapping.

The new representatives would only matter in 1870, after the next census.

 

[Buba]

OTL US House of Representatives (going by Wiki):
1858 House (based on 1850 census figures) - 238
ACW and all that
1868 House (based on 1860 census figures) - 243

In thus AU prolly more than 243 due to Alabama's population.
EDIT:
Numbers corrected, I misread the wiki

The new representatives would only matter in 1870, after the next census.

There will be reassignement of seats and expansion in 1862, using the 1860 Census.
I imagine that Alabama will demand its share going by its 2020 numbers (2010 probably acceptable) at metaphorical gunpoint.

For the shit and giggles - if Alabama joins the CSA - it would have over 50% of the electorate for the House ...
Not that the CSA would want these degenerates as part of it ...

For even bigger LOLs - although I'm not sure if actually possible*:
Alabama joins CSA -> has majority in the House -> divides itself into twenty States -> rams through their admission to the CSA -> with majority in the House and Senate and 2/3rds of all States it changes CSA Constitution** to end slavery -> looks at USA which still has slavery ...

*According to Wiki new States are admitted by "Congress" - if House votes "yeah" and Senate votes "nay", can the House override the Senate or not?
** CSA Constitution - 99% identical to USA Constitution - forbid the outlawing of slavery by Congress or States - so it has to be done by Constitutional Amendment,

 

[strunkenwhite]

The new representatives would only matter in 1870, after the next census.

That is an argument that would be possible to make, yes, but forcing four and a half million people into the representation of eight hundred thousand is pretty bullshit.

The 1860 Census results weren't even published until April 1861 and the Act of Congress doing the actual reapportioning wasn't passed until 1862. Such reapportionment is done, as Wikipedia puts it, "according to the most recent decennial census". So the question is whether the Apportionment Act of 1862 will be using the "most recent" 2010 Census or the 1860 Census.

To put it another way, I don't believe the reapportionment is "on rails" from the Census. It's informative, and it's binding in that Congress can't just do whatever it wants, but Congress does go in there and make the actual changes, meaning it's free to use the 2010 Census IMO—and more importantly, in Alabama's opinion.

whoops, got a bit ninjad.

According to Wii new States are admitted by "Congress" - if House votes "yeah" and Senate votes "nay", can the House override the Senate or not?

"lolno", to use the technical term. The best Alabama could do in the CSA is unilaterally control the House, so it couldn't do whatever it wants but it could damn well make sure nothing it doesn't want happens.

 

[Husky_Khan]

How does Alabama stand as to petroleum extraction and rafination? It could be hurting lots in this regard.

I assumed Mobile (like the name implies ) had offshore drilling but apparently Alabama has two large sedimentary basins within the state it can extract oil and natural gas from plus offshore oil rigs. And it currently is utilizing said basins for oil and gas extraction.

Oil and Gas Industry in Alabama - Encyclopedia of Alabama

Alabama is among the top 17 producers of oil and among the top 16 producers of natural gas in the United States. Oil and gas are found in many counties as well as in Mobile Bay. The state has developed some of the most stringent environmental regulations regarding drilling in its offshore...

encyclopediaofalabama.org

It also has three oil refineries, a big one in Tuscaloosa and another big Shell Oil one in the suburbs of Mobile, Alabama.

 

[Buba]

Awash in oil and refining capacity - good for Alabama!

 

[Agent23]

Interesting TL.

 

[WolfBear]

I suspect that 1861 Americans are going to go ballistic in seeing 2020 Alabama: Interracial marriage being not just legal, but more-or-less socially accepted and Alabama also having women's suffrage, legalized sodomy, legalized same-sex marriage, black suffrage, a social safety net, a sizable number of non-white immigrants, the Internet (though how that would be affected by this ISOT, I'm not sure), et cetera. Honestly, I could see an immediate push for a federal marriage amendment in order to criminalize same-sex marriage in "deviant" Alabama.

 

[nemo1986]

I suspect that 1861 Americans are going to go ballistic in seeing 2020 Alabama: Interracial marriage being not just legal, but more-or-less socially accepted and Alabama also having women's suffrage, legalized sodomy, legalized same-sex marriage, black suffrage, a social safety net, a sizable number of non-white immigrants, the Internet (though how that would be affected by this ISOT, I'm not sure), et cetera. Honestly, I could see an immediate push for a federal marriage amendment in order to criminalize same-sex marriage in "deviant" Alabama.

I fully expect Alabama to immediately ban same sex marriage in an instant once they know they can.

 

[WolfBear]

I fully expect Alabama to immediately ban same sex marriage in an instant once they know they can.

Unlikely. Public trends even in Alabama are shifting in the direction of pro-same sex marriage:

Will Iowans Uphold Gay Marriage?

The Iowa Supreme Court ruled today that same-sex marriage is protected under that state’s constitution.As in California, there will of course be an effort to am…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Free-Stater 101]

I fully expect Alabama to immediately ban same sex marriage in an instant once they know they can.

I won't spoil the plot but since @Abhorsen is LGBTQ and living their currently perhaps he can supply some information on the issue.

 

[Buba]

I fully expect Alabama to immediately ban same sex marriage in an instant once they know they can.

Soo ... good for them?
If that's the will of population ...
Should be a State matter anyway.

Thread tax - such a move would minimally lessen the utter disgust and horror at their mores among the Downtimers. So, good PR.

 

[WolfBear]

I won't spoil the plot but since @Abhorsen is LGBTQ and living their currently perhaps he can supply some information on the issue.

A gay conservative man from Alabama?

Soo ... good for them?

Sodomy will still be legal there in any case, though. And same-sex marriage might not stay illegal there forever.

 

[Abhorsen]

A gay conservative man from Alabama?

Bi and libertarian. Also kinky (see my title).

There was a poll (May 2019) by the PRRI (fairly liberal) on attitudes vs same sex marriage by every state, where Alabama still had a majority against (51 vs 41), but it was a fast changing number. They also have a poll from 2020 saying its 50:35 in favor, but I simply don't trust that number.

It also depends where one is. Huntsville is comparatively liberal, for example.

The real answer is that it won't matter. The war that's surely coming (if @Rusty Shackleford will get off his ass! (jk, I love this timeline)) will unite people, and the few very racist people who will leave for the confederacy will add tolerance by subtracting themselves. I would also put forward that I don't expect much to change in regards to gay rights because of status quo: they'd have to unmarry a bunch of people.

I suspect that 1861 Americans are going to go ballistic in seeing 2020 Alabama: Interracial marriage being not just legal, but more-or-less socially accepted and Alabama also having women's suffrage, legalized sodomy, legalized same-sex marriage, black suffrage, a social safety net, a sizable number of non-white immigrants, the Internet (though how that would be affected by this ISOT, I'm not sure), et cetera. Honestly, I could see an immediate push for a federal marriage amendment in order to criminalize same-sex marriage in "deviant" Alabama.

Unlikely because of the civil war. Quite bluntly, having Alabama being very Union is a huge boon to Lincoln (once he gets in office in March). The question is whether succession goes forward: South Carolina already seceded, so something is inevitable.

The big thing is that this didn't happen a month later: if it had, many states (including Alabama) would already have seceded, which would have been huge. There's a chance that this basically halts secession.

 

[Buba]

Alabama being very Union

Can the DT USA accommodate UT Alabama with its outlandish Laws and customs?
While on the subject of marriage - interracial marriages are banned all over the place, North and West included.

Even if some hardcore worshippers of the "good old days" leave AND do not come back to their modcons, I'd imagine emigration to be significantly outnumbered by immigration.

 

[Abhorsen]

Can the DT USA accommodate UT Alabama with its outlandish Laws and customs?
While on the subject of marriage - interracial marriages are banned all over the place, North and West included.

Even if some hardcore worshippers of the "good old days" leave AND do not come back to their modcons, I'd imagine emigration to be significantly outnumbered by immigration.

Given the newfound reputation of Alabama, the people who move there would be the type of people fine with the new rules. I expect it to become significantly blacker very quickly as well, as slaves flee to the new free state in the south.

Can the DT USA accommodate UT Alabama with its outlandish Laws and customs?
While on the subject of marriage - interracial marriages are banned all over the place, North and West included.

DT doesn't have much of a choice. Prior to Lincoln & Civil War, there was little control of states by the Feds. On top of that, we'd just start shouting states rights right back at the slave states (which will be hilarious!).

And once Lincoln is in office, he won't give a shit as long as we help fight the rest of the south. Also, it will be seen as God's plan to do this and smite the slavers, so expect that to have an impact as well on both OTL and DT people. It'd get me to start going to church damn fast.

 

[Buba]

slaves flee to the new free state in the south.

A State which, where fugitive slaves are concerned, will tell the Federal Gov't, the Supreme Court and Slave States too, in a nice southern drawl, "fuck off yall, we ain't giving them back".

 

[Free-Stater 101]

Unlikely because of the civil war. Quite bluntly, having Alabama being very Union is a huge boon to Lincoln (once he gets in office in March). The question is whether succession goes forward: South Carolina already seceded, so something is inevitable.

The big thing is that this didn't happen a month later: if it had, many states (including Alabama) would already have seceded, which would have been huge. There's a chance that this basically halts secession.

Who says Jaunuary 1st 1861 was the date they would arrive? That was never in my gameplan...

 

[Abhorsen]

Oddly, I'm not there, as I move down 6 months later. Sad.

Who says Jaunuary 1st 1861 was the date they would arrive? That was never in my gameplan...

Oooh, interesting! The seasonal change alone will cause weirdness!