Discussion of thr Cycle of History. (Or is America doomed to suffer under an American Ceasar?)

I've seen some hot takes but this is definitely one of the notable ones.
It's just the blunt truth; there are more insights and answers to modern problems to be found in modern/recent fiction, than in pretty much any text about the Ancient World or Old World.

We can learn from the mistakes of the old world, but we should not operate as if the old world's paradigms dictates the US's future.
 
It's just the blunt truth; there are more insights and answers to modern problems to be found in modern/recent fiction, than in pretty much any text about the Ancient World or Old World.

We can learn from the mistakes of the old world, but we should not operate as if the old world's paradigms dictates the US's future.

No that'd be how we got to where we are now. Honestly that's the dumbest take I've ever heard.
 
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No that'd how we got to where we are bow. Honestly that's the dumbest take I've ever heard.
No, how we got where we are now is a large part of the US public and gov trying to maintain a 'monopoly' on political 'righteousness' based on illusions and lies from Far-Leftists and actual Marxists.

Trump actually threatened the illusions, and did cause the elite to drop the mask because he was such a threat, and the illusions of the past are crumbling more and more with each day.

Trump is not a 'Gacchi bro' or a 'Populari' or any Roman analogue, and the US gov is much, much different from the Roman Republic in more ways than can be easily counted.
 
No, how we got where we are now is a large part of the US public and gov trying to maintain a 'monopoly' on political 'righteousness' based on illusions and lies from Far-Leftists and actual Marxists.

Trump actually threatened the illusions, and did cause the elite to drop the mask because he was such a threat, and the illusions of the past are crumbling more and more with each day.

Trump is not a 'Gacchi bro' or a 'Populari' or any Roman analogue, and the US gov is much, much different from the Roman Republic in more ways than can be easily counted.
The belief that we have in some way evolved beyond the past is quite absurd. the technologies may have gotten better true. but the mob behaves in the same way. the corrupt elites still do what they can to hold onto power. the hardware the Human OS runs on hasn't had any dramatic shifts in the last few hundred thousand years. the cultural patches can only change so much for good or ill. the likelihood of a strongman tyrant rises the longer that things continue as they have without intervention. and the longer it gets put off? the more lessons they will learn from those who came before about who needs to be removed from positions of power and influence.
 
It's just the blunt truth; there are more insights and answers to modern problems to be found in modern/recent fiction, than in pretty much any text about the Ancient World or Old World.

We can learn from the mistakes of the old world, but we should not operate as if the old world's paradigms dictates the US's future.

And there were Romans saying the same shit you just said when people made comparisons to Perisa.

Bacle, you consume too much Sci fi and suffer under the liberal delusion that technological progress in a linear fashion = civilizational sophistication.

And note I say consume, not watch.

Big difference.

Any way it doesn't.

We are not different than the Romans in many ways and our similarity to an ancient civilization is ironically why we are more advanced than other countries.

Rome will also dominate our species history and all America's achievements as her successor even conquering the stars will be not but the shadow of an orphan raised by a she wolf.
 
The belief that we have in some way evolved beyond the past is quite absurd. the technologies may have gotten better true. but the mob behaves in the same way. the corrupt elites still do what they can to hold onto power. the hardware the Human OS runs on hasn't had any dramatic shifts in the last few hundred thousand years. the cultural patches can only change so much for good or ill. the likelihood of a strongman tyrant rises the longer that things continue as they have without intervention. and the longer it gets put off? the more lessons they will learn from those who came before about who needs to be removed from positions of power and influence.
Well, for one, we have health care that operates off germ theory, instead of shamanism and trial/error naturalist stuff.

We also know not to use lead as a sweetner, unlike the Romans; people forget how lead poisoning can affect the thinking and reasoning of people, and lead was everywhere in Roman society.

Shit, mass lead poisoning over generations in the leadership class explains a lot of why Rome got to the point it fell.

Human knowledge has advanced so far beyond what the Romans and ancient society's could even begin to understand.

The Founding Father's were lucky enough to found the US just before the Industrial Revolution came around, but after the first seeds of it had been planted with introduction of gunpowder, the sextant, and small pox vaccines.

The US was able to evolve into something new, because of how the nation came to be, when it came to be, and where it was founded. We had/have massively different existential conditions and pressures, we had the ability to chart our own course instead of having to play the same old game of the Europe, Med, or Asia; we never had to worry about thousands of years of blood feuds tied to old family's and clans.

Rome never had the advantage over it's frontier areas that the US had at it's founding and as it pushed west, nor has any empire ever come close to have as secure a geographic position as the US does.

The US doesn't have to fear land invasion anymore, Rome did, Spain did, pretty much every empire on the planet has had to worry about land invasions from one direction or another.

Illegal immigration may be bad and wrong, but it's not the same as worrying about Mongol's, Vikings, Huns, Persians, Ottomans, or Goths sweeping into your town to do a slave raid or just loot it.
And there were Romans saying the same shit you just said when people made comparisons to Perisa.
Neither Rome nor Persia existed in anything like the context the US was founded in and grew into.

It's fine to like history and examine it; it's a mistake to assume the politics of Rome, Persia, Spain, or any other old world empire really matter in the context of the US and our history.

I know it's a tempting rhetorical and argumentative flourish that will get likes from history buffs, but it's useless for actually understanding the US as is and what it will take to fix it.

'Cycles of history' thinking is lazy and backwards looking, instead of focused on the realities of today and the likely paths of our society into the future, as told by the stories of those who actually have lived since the Industrial Revolution began.

This is why trying to map Trump/Biden onto some historical figure and plot out/predict the course of American politics is worse than useless, and actually causes people to misdirect their efforts into fruitless avenues of action.
 
This is why trying to map Trump/Biden onto some historical figure and plot out/predict the course of American politics is worse than useless, and actually causes people to misdirect their efforts into fruitless avenues of action.

And yet you think reading works of fiction is going to be more helpful? Seriously dude we aren't as special as you'd like to think. Sure we have some new toys and a bit more knowledge but humans haven't changed, I'd also argue the average man in antiquity was far more knowledgeable than the average man today.
 
And yet you think reading works of fiction is going to be more helpful? Seriously dude we aren't as special as you'd like to think. Sure we have some new toys and a bit more knowledge but humans haven't changed, I'd also argue the average man in antiquity was far more knowledgeable than the average man today.
Yes, I do think works of fiction like 1984, Ghost in the Shell, Firefly/Serenity, Fallout, Ready Player One, and The Expanse have much more to teach modern people than the Romans, Greeks, Persians, or any other old world empire can at this point.

We need to be more worried about crafting our own futures, instead of viewing ourselves as 'just another cycle of the old world empires'; doing so is a mental block to actually addressing modern problems as they currently exist, because it doesn't fucking matter what Aristole or Marcus Arelius or Confucius would think of today's issues.

Historical records from those times are more useful for climatic and geological data, than for commentary on modern political issues.
 
The two much more important criticisms of macro-historical cycles, in my opinion:

1. That the America≈Rome case puts us on just the present and Rome before we hit a brick wall of pre-history where China and Egypt actually have enough of a sample size to matter, which causes issues for the America≈Rome case with how much shorter and tighter they are

2. That for all the defensiveness around human nature not changing, the argumentation is almost always "X will happen because Y historical event in the cycle". As opposed to "X will happen because Y conditions of the cycle", to properly tie it to the social trends that actually cause things to happen

Edit: Similarly to Great Man Theory, it's a very compelling "Just So" method of historical analysis but just doesn't bear out when you try to work out the actual "bottom up" relationship of psychology and economics to political outcomes. For a demagogue to arise, things must first be amenable to a mob to lift him.
 
1. That the America≈Rome case puts us on just the present and Rome before we hit a brick wall of pre-history where China and Egypt actually have enough of a sample size to matter, which causes issues for the America≈Rome case with how much shorter and tighter they are

Your sentence is phrased a bit strangely, so correct me if I'm wrong, but are you saying that we supposedly only have the West, Rome, China and Egypt for the comparison?

Because I'd like to introduce you to Indian/Brahmanic civilisation, Islamic civilisation, Mesopotamian civilisation, Persian civilisation, Phoenician/Punic civilisation, Meso-American civilisation, Andean civilisation, South Arabian civilisation...

...I'm not done, by the way. But I trust the point is clear. Your assumption isn't correct; we have more than the ones you mention. The main issue is that quite a lot of people are completely unfamiliar with those -- at least for the purposes of their civilisational history -- so when I point out similarities with (and between) those, all I get is a glazy-eyed look of complete incomprehension. So that's why you don't hear those referenced very often.

Although the comparison between Islam and Christendom used to be far more prevalent, and for context (including their early inter-action), one might start by reading Pirenne.



Additionally: why do you think that America and Rome have much shorter and tighter cycles? That's hardly accurate. The earliest civilisations literally came from nothing, while later-day civilisations could build on the ruins of precursors, so the latter ones have shorter incipient phases. That's true. But other than that? Things match up pretty evenly.

I think you may be deceived by the fact that both China and Egypt had the distinction that upon completing their cycle, managed to "fall back together again", repeating the imperial stage. This is something that Rome and Mesopotamia and South Arabia, for instance, didn't do. I suspect it's a factor of a certain favourable geography, and that the West won't "fall back together" after its civilisational demise, either. (North America as a distinct entity unto itself, however, is another story: the Mississippi basin is basically designed to foster this kind of thing, just like the Egyptian and Chinese heartlands.)



2. That for all the defensiveness around human nature not changing, the argumentation is almost always "X will happen because Y historical event in the cycle". As opposed to "X will happen because Y conditions of the cycle", to properly tie it to the social trends that actually cause things to happen.

You misrepresent the logic. The argument is: these things keep happening because human nature causes them to happen. We don't repeat previously established patterns because we are imitating earlier peoples, but because we share the same nature as earlier peoples.

Now, obviously, one can argue against that. But misrepresenting the thesis of macro-history isn't a sensible way to do it. (I mean... I know it's easy to prop up a straw man, but that doesn't make it true.)
 
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The book 2034 is a accurate one as well for a what could happen to the US kinda thing.
 
Your assumption isn't correct; we have more than the ones you mention. The main issue is that quite a lot of people are completely unfamiliar with those -- at least for the purposes of their civilisational history -- so when I point out similarities with (and between) those, all I get is a glazy-eyed look of complete incomprehension.
The point being made is sample sizes. Egypt and China have an enormous lead in cycle count, with extensive institutional similarities between these numerous cycles, and most importantly records to follow at a decent resolution. Maybe you can dredge up something from old Sanskrit and piece together some decent bits from Islamic writings, but Meso-america and the Andes? Where in the world is remotely worth mentioning data on those civilizations?

This is not "glazy-eyed look of complete incomprehension", this is "the demands of a useful model are wildly incompatible with the numerous layers of fuzzy reconstruction required to get anywhere in figuring out these civilizations' histories".

The argument is: these things keep happening because human nature causes them to happen. We don't repeat previously established patterns because we are imitating earlier peoples, but because we share the same nature as earlier peoples.
The point being made is that this is not the argument you actually make, because you do not actually demonstrate anything of human nature. You assume that these vague correlations reflect immutable emergent properties of humans in civilization, then never actually connect what stone-age tribal instincts are causing the events in question.

Because stone-age tribals is what human nature is. Civilization is an accretion of nurture, with such incredibly numerous things at odds with that nature down to healthy diets and sleep cycles that absolutely anything describing trends of it in terms of "human nature" has a mountainous burden of proof to get anywhere. There are very serious arguments about psychoactive drugs being nearly as essential as food supplies for civilization to work at-scale because of how distant it is from human nature.
 
The point being made is sample sizes. Egypt and China have an enormous lead in cycle count, with extensive institutional similarities between these numerous cycles, and most importantly records to follow at a decent resolution. Maybe you can dredge up something from old Sanskrit and piece together some decent bits from Islamic writings, but Meso-america and the Andes? Where in the world is remotely worth mentioning data on those civilizations?

This is not "glazy-eyed look of complete incomprehension", this is "the demands of a useful model are wildly incompatible with the numerous layers of fuzzy reconstruction required to get anywhere in figuring out these civilizations' histories".


The point being made is that this is not the argument you actually make, because you do not actually demonstrate anything of human nature. You assume that these vague correlations reflect immutable emergent properties of humans in civilization, then never actually connect what stone-age tribal instincts are causing the events in question.

Because stone-age tribals is what human nature is. Civilization is an accretion of nurture, with such incredibly numerous things at odds with that nature down to healthy diets and sleep cycles that absolutely anything describing trends of it in terms of "human nature" has a mountainous burden of proof to get anywhere. There are very serious arguments about psychoactive drugs being nearly as essential as food supplies for civilization to work at-scale because of how distant it is from human nature.

Funny story: we've had practically this exact conversation before. You seem to have magically forgotten all about it, since you not only raise the exact same talking points, and not only ignore the counter-arguments I posited then, but outright pretend that the whole conversation never took place.

The first two tendencies are fine -- after all, you didn't convince me, either -- but the fact is: if you're this forgetful, further conversation is a bit of a waste. No matter what I say, you'll just have forgotten by next week. So if you want to re-tread this ground, maybe it's better if you just read back the earlier exchange.
 
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Well, for one, we have health care that operates off germ theory, instead of shamanism and trial/error naturalist stuff.

We also know not to use lead as a sweetner, unlike the Romans; people forget how lead poisoning can affect the thinking and reasoning of people, and lead was everywhere in Roman society.

Shit, mass lead poisoning over generations in the leadership class explains a lot of why Rome got to the point it fell.

Human knowledge has advanced so far beyond what the Romans and ancient society's could even begin to understand.

The Founding Father's were lucky enough to found the US just before the Industrial Revolution came around, but after the first seeds of it had been planted with introduction of gunpowder, the sextant, and small pox vaccines.

The US was able to evolve into something new, because of how the nation came to be, when it came to be, and where it was founded. We had/have massively different existential conditions and pressures, we had the ability to chart our own course instead of having to play the same old game of the Europe, Med, or Asia; we never had to worry about thousands of years of blood feuds tied to old family's and clans.

Rome never had the advantage over it's frontier areas that the US had at it's founding and as it pushed west, nor has any empire ever come close to have as secure a geographic position as the US does.

The US doesn't have to fear land invasion anymore, Rome did, Spain did, pretty much every empire on the planet has had to worry about land invasions from one direction or another.

Illegal immigration may be bad and wrong, but it's not the same as worrying about Mongol's, Vikings, Huns, Persians, Ottomans, or Goths sweeping into your town to do a slave raid or just loot it.
If you think any of that has changed the fundamentals of how humans operate you are very wrong. no lead doesn't mean people are gonna stop being tribal creatures at their core. more general knowledge only matters if people actually bother to learn it. they don't. us having longer lifespans and a more comfortable life with neat toys doesn't mean we suddenly have evolved beyond the people of rome or whatever other nation you care to name. you seem to believe that these things mean that people should have grown beyond being the mob at some point. they haven't. the same things that existed in people back then exist in them now. and it only takes circumstances aligning to provoke them.
 
If you think any of that has changed the fundamentals of how humans operate you are very wrong. no lead doesn't mean people are gonna stop being tribal creatures at their core. more general knowledge only matters if people actually bother to learn it. they don't. us having longer lifespans and a more comfortable life with neat toys doesn't mean we suddenly have evolved beyond the people of rome or whatever other nation you care to name. you seem to believe that these things mean that people should have grown beyond being the mob at some point. they haven't. the same things that existed in people back then exist in them now. and it only takes circumstances aligning to provoke them.
'Guns, Germs, and Steel' shows why this is just hilariously out-of-touch with how civilizations actually develop and how environmental/geographic factors play far, far more of a role in civilizational development than any 'cycles of civilization/empire' comparisons/ideas.

The environment one lives in dictates more about morals and beliefs and success of a nation or empire than any almost anything, and the US's environmental and geographic context is much, much different than any Old World empire ever had.
 

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