China ChiCom News Thread
- Thread starter LordsFire
- Start date
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
I can't believe it's true.
Sir what's the punishment for treason?
Death.
Sir whats the punishment for being late?"
Death.
Sir we are late....
China threatens 'strong measures' if Pelosi visits Taiwan
China says it will take “resolute and strong measures" should the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan.
apnews.com
China threatens 'strong measures' if Pelosi visits Taiwan
China says it will take “resolute and strong measures" should the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan.
Don't threaten me with a good time.China threatens 'strong measures' if Pelosi visits Taiwan
China says it will take “resolute and strong measures" should the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan.
History Learner
Well-known member
China threatens 'strong measures' if Pelosi visits Taiwan
China says it will take “resolute and strong measures" should the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi proceed with reported plans to visit Taiwan.
This year and next are probably going to be the absolute best time to do it, the U.S. military is in shambles, military stocks throughout NATO are depleted and will need years to rebuild. Russia in Ukraine has effectively tied down most of the main NATO formations too. There is very, very little the U.S. or its regional allies could do to oppose China right now.
Sanctions, no? That, and China's power relative to the US will be much higher in 2050+ than is in right now.
History Learner
Well-known member
I'm pretty will convinced a lot of the lockdowns China has been doing the past year are essentially case test runs; we've known for awhile they been sanction proofing their economy, same as the Russians. See this Foreign Policy article, New York Times, and the Guardian. In the long run, I'm not sure there's much point in waiting, because I really don't want to guess at the power balance beyond 2030 at this point. China is going to get screwed by demographics in the second half of this century, but the U.S. is facing serious structural problems now. China taking Taiwan could turn those problems fatal, both as a devastating blow to American prestige but also economically because Taiwan is such a critical component in the American economy that it might not always be if things like the CHIPs act go through.
China's population is older then the US right now, much of their water supply is tainted by decades of polution. Their farming requires much more imputes to attempt to feed their people and even then they have to have outside imports to make it work. Their the single most overleveraged country in human history with debt levels I haven't seen in history, and on top of that the current leadership has gone into neo maoist tryanny over covid.
China is facing so many bullets hitting all at the same time that I cant quite tell which one will kill the CCP.
China in the near term is fucked.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Everyone is declining.
History Learner
Well-known member
One of the more interesting aspects of the Russo-Ukrainian War is that it's disproved so much of the thinking that had become prevalent over the last 15 years in terms of warfare on a domestic level. Low fertility, aging population? Didn't prevent this war. The "Golden Arches" Hypothesis, which was basically the modernized version of the "Democratic Peace" Theory? Didn't prevent this war. For those well studied in history, a lot of this is reminiscent of the thinking immediately prior to the Great War.
All this to say that, yeah, everyone is declining and that's what makes right now so geopolitically dangerous; there's fewer reasons not to start something now because you might not be able to later on favorable terms.
While its true that everyone is fucked some people are more fucked then others.
China....their real fucked by geography, diplomacy and leadership. The next regime could lead them into being a great power but the CCP really cant because communism by its nature has the foundation of acting like a total asshole. So their going to have a bad time.
That said I think they can come back from it but not before a whole lot of communists are put into very deep ditches.
Russia...Russia is in my opinion terminally fucked, demogrphics, shitty geography, a whole host of breakaway regions, and the fact that Putin has pretty successfully purged anyone who could replace him leads me to think that their majorly fucked and no one will miss them.
Europe as far as I can tell this is a region thats going to be humbled by force this decade, the leadership has a kind of weird self loathing arrogance that will get a serious atitude readjustment real soon. After that I think europe's cutlure pretty much breaks down.
America- our leadership cadre has gone retarded but the fundamentals are still there, were in for a real bad time maybe even a revolution but we I think will be fine in the long run.
India- Holy shit um if your indian enjoy the moment because this is your decade man.
LordsFire
Internet Wizard
Yes, because all of those air-to-sea munitions we've been selling and giving the Ukrainians.
And torpedoes.
And combat aircraft.
And air-to-air missiles.
And the entire inventory of non-MANPAD SAM weapons that's been depleted.
Oh yeah, and the aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, Arleigh-Burkes, anti-ship missiles-
-Oh wait, those last ones we've been selling to the Taiwanese, not the Ukrainians.
All of the most essential kit and consumables for the US defeating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is for naval warfare, with air war being the close runner-up. And we're giving the Ukrainian practically nothing for blue-water combat (though some brown-water bits and bobs), and very little for the air war.
The biggest worry Taiwan has in regards to the US's involvement if China invades isn't our ammunition or equipment, it's whether there'll be a replay of treasonous democrats bitching out like they did in the Vietnam War, and handing victory to communists on a platter. If the US does go hot in that conflict, pretty much all indicators are that China will get completely wrecked.
They might manage to take out a Carrier battle group or two in the process, but unless literally everything history has taught about warfare is subverted, the PLA is not ready to take on the US military, much less the host of allies that would almost certainly commit if the US does.
Hell, the PLA might not even be able to take Taiwan solo; just look at what's happened to Russia in Ukraine, and Taiwan has the advantage of a nice big chunk of ocean in between it and China.
There's a lot here that's wrong.
Timing...I'd think a couple more years of Biden would make their situation even better.
For what we'd need to hand China their head at sea...nothing we're sending to Ukraine effects that. Anyone that says we need to invade China...you take them out back and beat them with sticks.
No NATO formations are necessary to hand China its head if they go after Taiwan.
There's a crap load that the USA, and it's allies, can do if China sends the balloon up over Taiwan. Every Chinese fishing trawler is seized or sunk. Every oil tanker heading to China gets the same treatment. Any PLAN ship is sunk or captured. All oil pipelines into China are targeted. I could go on.
Arch Dornan
Oh, lovely. They've sent me a mo-ron.
Go all Red Cliffs on them their ships sink between the mainland and Taiwan?
Invading Taiwan by sea will be considerably harder for China then it was for Russia to invade the Ukraine.
Seriously naval invasions are an absolute pain in the ass for countries that know what their doing. For a nation like china who don't have generations of naval history it will be a blood bath.
And thats all if no one decides to throw missles at 3 gorges damn...
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History Learner
Well-known member
Nothing I've said is wrong, and in the event of war we're not going to be handing China their head; if the war is fought today, tens of thousands of American soldiers are going to die and China is going to take "Chinese Taipei". That's the plain, simple facts of it which the U.S. Armed Forces has made painfully clear going back years now. If you've been paying attention, they've stopped calling China "Near Peer" and just started calling them Peer for a reason.
In the military realm, Russia can be contained, but China cannot. Its military predominance in east Asia will grow over time, compelling the United States to accept greater costs and risks just to secure existing commitments. But it is geoeconomics, rather than geopolitics, in which the contest for world leadership will play out. It is in the domain of geoeconomics that the balance of global influence between the United States and China has begun shifting in China's favor.