With the US out though, they can most likely start moving a lot more easier. Anything that can't be done by plane or ship they can through A-stan.
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China ChiCom News Thread
- Thread starter LordsFire
- Start date
They can... But why would they, when they have Pakistan, which is safer and has better infrastructure?
Also anything that can be moved by a shitty land route can be moved by ship.
Perhaps to prevent prying eyes?
But whose eyes?
In Pakistan, the government is the only set of eyes of concern.
In Afghanistan, until they are far more successful setting up their own government than expected, there will be dozens of factions willing to do things for a suitcase of dollars.
And there are chances Pakistan's government will find out anyway.
There was just a major power in A-stan.
With them gone what eyes are gone?
Maybe they used too
I mean, this is the logical, rational thing for both sides to do.
Eh, we stayed in for 20 years out of embarrassment. I think people put a little too much weight on it, or miss understand what it means. For example, if everyone knows from the beginning this is paying organized highway bandits not to bandit, there's no real loss of face when the highway bandits occasionally reverts back to highway banditry.
If face based culture worked how some thing it worked, then much of the century of humiliation in china wouldn't have happened, which involved a lot of dishonorble acts and rank cowardness and double dealing.
Edit: I've seen people discuss the whole target would be Iran, and it lets china better cordinate. Like @Marduk , I don't really see it alowing anything that Pakistan didn't already allow them: as we read in the Belt and Road article, the main way they're trying to integrate Afghanistan is to integrate them with Pakistan and the infrastructure their investing to integrate Pakistan with China. Iran would probably be integrated to China through Pakistan. Or Turkmenistan.
Notice the country above Afghanistan? Turkmenistan? That also boarders Iran? Guess who's extremely already invested in that? From wiki:
"In December 2009 the first line, Line A, of the Trans-Asia pipeline to China opened, creating a second major market for Turkmen natural gas. By 2015 Turkmenistan was delivering up to 35 billion cubic meters per annum (bcma) to China.[121] China is the largest buyer of gas from Turkmenistan, via three pipelines linking the two countries through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In 2019, China bought over 30bcm of gas from Turkmenistan,[122][123] making China Turkmenistan's main external source of revenue.[124]
The East–West pipeline was completed in December 2015, with the intent of delivering up to 30 bcm of natural gas to the Caspian shore for eventual export through a yet-to-be-built Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline connecting the Belek-1 compressor station in Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan.
The Turkmenistan government continues to pursue construction of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Pipeline, or TAPI.[125] The anticipated cost of the TAPI pipeline is currently estimated at $25 billion. Turkmenistan's section of the pipeline was started in 2015 and was completed in 2019, though the Afghanistan and Pakistan sections remain under construction."
So, China's main interests seem to be Turkmenistan and Pakistan, and both are perfectly good ways to get overland stuff to Iran as they need to do. Getting rid of Afghanistan as an American power base makes both of those existing routs more secure, and if Pakistan can be brought in to fully get rid of American presence, Iran goes from having to deal with a 3-4 (effective) front war if they have to go up against the US, to a 2 front war facing the middle east with secured supply lines to Russia or China secured is a potentially major shift.
So, Iran-China's ability to work together is probably improved, and ending Afghanistan is a good first step to get rid of America everywhere else in that area, and does go a long way to securing China's ability to do things out to about Iran with relatively low risk.
But, Afghanistan is probably more important in the Americans not being there as a potential staging area behind the lines, rather as a place that needs to be controlled itself. That's one of the reasons I'm not sure Afghanistan/China will come to odds: China really doesn't need anything from Afghanistan besides not messing with Turkmenistan or Pakistan, and to not allow the Americans or some other hostile power in.
At least, as others have said, in the near term. If Turkmenistan and Pakistan for example became heavily integrated into Chinese sphere and Afghanistan was causing problems there, or they wanted to shore up a unified front there, then it might make sense to invade Afghanistan. And replace the Afghanis with Turks/Iranians/Pakistanis or something at that point. That's probably too far East and there's too many Afganis to plausibly to what they did in Tibet and their west of just flooding them with Han colonists.
Well, looking at it, there's "only" about 40 million Afghanis, so if they wanted to boost things to 50% Han, than would involve "only" 3% of their population emigrating out. In fact, given how ethnically diverse Afghanistan is, setting it up so Hans are the largest ethnic group "only" requires about 15 million colonists, which is "only" 1% of their population. That doesn't seem like something China really needs to do however, or at least wouldn't be in a situation to even need to consider it for 10-20 years on optimistic (for china) movements in that direction.
The rational anti Afghanistan move, if an anti Afghanistan move is necessary, is partitioning Afghanistan between their Pakistani/Turkmenistan/Iranian/Tajikistan allies if Afghanistan is a problem. Which the Taliban may even support, depending on the nature of their relationship with Pakistan.
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gral
Well-known member
Pretty vulnerable supply line though.
That is not even the half of it. These are the roads the CCP would have to use to send any major force through.
Points at my video above. China doesn't have a good track record with making good roads.
I know. They will improve the roads with thier horrible roads
Perhaps. If they throw enough money at it and spend a decade or two there. But will they?
Arnt they planning on building a road system there?
Seems like they want to, under BRI. But how the timeframe and security situation turn out for allowing it, that's another matter.
China prepares to move into Afghanistan with $62 billion 'Belt and Road' initiative as American troops leave
July 9 UPDATE: - The Taliban regards China as a "friend" of Afghanistan and hopes to speak with Beijing about investing in reconstruction work "as soon
insiderpaper.com
So easier way to get stuff to them instead of going through the mountainsSeems like they want to, under BRI. But how the timeframe and security situation turn out for allowing it, that's another matter.
Apparently they want to start with Kabul-Peshwar highway to Pakistan, and they were pestering Afghan government for years over it, and now that USA is leaving they feel confident to say yes.China prepares to move into Afghanistan with $62 billion 'Belt and Road' initiative as American troops leave
July 9 UPDATE: - The Taliban regards China as a "friend" of Afghanistan and hopes to speak with Beijing about investing in reconstruction work "as soon
Yup. Overall, considering previous history, it seems like China is more interested in turning Afghanistan into a mining colony than a logistical hub - for that, they have more stable and developed Tajikistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan has a lot of interesting yet mostly unexploited minerals which China's industry would love to call their own.
The Story Behind China’s Long-Stalled Mine in Afghanistan
Nine years after Chinese companies took control of Mes Aynak, copper extraction has yet to start.
thediplomat.com
I doubt they will stay peacefulYup. Overall, considering previous history, it seems like China is more interested in turning Afghanistan into a mining colony than a logistical hub - for that, they have more stable and developed Tajikistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan has a lot of interesting yet mostly unexploited minerals which China's industry would love to call their own.
But for now, seems like China is being realistic about the prospect of situation in Afghanistan not resolving itself peacefully.The Story Behind China’s Long-Stalled Mine in Afghanistan
Nine years after Chinese companies took control of Mes Aynak, copper extraction has yet to start.thediplomat.com