American Middle Class Disappearing?

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
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That's situation where, if you wait, you can buy more for your buck. And we already know how people respond to it, because those situations exist. And the reality is nothing like the Keynesian bullshit.
As I said, in general I agree with you but your desire for deflationary economics you ignored an entire point of what I wrote: what happens when goods drop below the threshold of your monetary value?

I used milk as an example because it's considered a critical foodstuff and cannot be bought by households in any other form to be reliably used and not have waste (IE, you cannot just increase the amount of milk sold per unit as a few gallons of milk is about the largest practical amount for a household to buy and store at a time). The cost of milk, as a percent of income, has DRAMATICALLY dropped in the last 70 years due to improvements in production, distribution, and preservation. How do you propose to balance for those improvements if the price drops below the minimum value of the currency (which milk was actually nearing if the US Dollar still had the same unit value as it did in 1950)?

That's why you want to keep things as stable as possible with the money supply, rather than deflationary (or excessively inflationary), because technology developments continue, improvements in distribution, production, etc. lower the costs of goods all while you have an increasing number of people needing to use the same money. A very slight inflationary money supply does not overly punish savings as the lost of value over time for the stored money is negligible from a practical standpoint or accounted for via interest paid on those savings (IE, if inflation is 1% but a savings account gives 2% interest) while also making sure that productivity and technological savings doesn't incidentally drop the the price of goods so low as to be impractical to produce and pay for.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
As I said, in general I agree with you but your desire for deflationary economics you ignored an entire point of what I wrote: what happens when goods drop below the threshold of your monetary value?

I used milk as an example because it's considered a critical foodstuff and cannot be bought by households in any other form to be reliably used and not have waste (IE, you cannot just increase the amount of milk sold per unit as a few gallons of milk is about the largest practical amount for a household to buy and store at a time). The cost of milk, as a percent of income, has DRAMATICALLY dropped in the last 70 years due to improvements in production, distribution, and preservation. How do you propose to balance for those improvements if the price drops below the minimum value of the currency (which milk was actually nearing if the US Dollar still had the same unit value as it did in 1950)?

That's why you want to keep things as stable as possible with the money supply, rather than deflationary (or excessively inflationary), because technology developments continue, improvements in distribution, production, etc. lower the costs of goods all while you have an increasing number of people needing to use the same money. A very slight inflationary money supply does not overly punish savings as the lost of value over time for the stored money is negligible from a practical standpoint or accounted for via interest paid on those savings (IE, if inflation is 1% but a savings account gives 2% interest) while also making sure that productivity and technological savings doesn't incidentally drop the the price of goods so low as to be impractical to produce and pay for.

Well, hypothetically, you could just issue ever smaller denominations. As in "a carton of milk for 50 microcents, lad". This sounds a bit strange to our lived experience, but when you consider it: is there anything all that bad about it? Would it be harmful?

If you consider it for a bit longer, though, you run into the obvious issue, which will then lead you to a built-in "braking mechanism" of sorts. The issue is: what about wages?

If you make, say, ten dollars an hour, and prices keep going down, then -- theoretically -- you can at some point buy a car for a day's wage. But obviously, in that case, all companies would go bankrupt, because they make their revenue in deflation-adjusted prices, and then have to pay comparatively staggering sums in wages. They won't do that. So either wages are periodically adjusted (that is: lowered) to adjust for deflation... or companies periodically hike up their prices to keep revenue stable, compared to the wage costs they face.

The first option leads to the "increasingly smaller denominations" outcome. You eventually get paid, perhaps, ten cents a day, whereas a bread costs only a tiny fraction of that. (And keep in mind, each dollar and cent represents a mass in gold, so perhaps rather than creating "microcents", the money is just re-issued, and you exchange an old type dollar that's worth a certain mass in gold for ten new type dollars that are each worth a tenth of that same mass. You keep the same value either way.) There is no reason that wouldn't be workable. A factor is that people are psychologically opposed to the lowering of their wages. So you get the inverse of the current labour relation, where the workers demand higher wages. Instead, the shoe is on the other foot, and the employers have to convince the workers to accept wages "adjusted for deflation". I think this will ultimately strengthen the position of the workers, which I intuitively feel is a good thing.

The second option would mean wages stay the same thenceforth, but companies would periodically raise their prices to adjust for the fact that deflation reduces their income. In practice, this has the same result of meaningfully limiting the effect of the deflation, and bringing actual wage-price relations far closer to a stable state. Again, this situation compares favourably to the present-day inverse situation. Now, when companies raise prices, they hide it by saying it's just because of inflation (even though in reality, they're adding a bit on the top, in Dutch this is called graaiflatie, or "grab-flation"). In the scenario I propose, however, prices are ever decreasing, so if prices go up, everybody can instantly see that it's purely a case of the company wanting to get more. This limits what they can easily get away with. Again, this strengthens the position of the consumer, compared to how it is now.

All in all, I expect -- due to these factors -- that deflation will typically be a quite limited process, and that in practice, it's going to be closer to a stable state than one might expect. I think it'll never be static (nothing ever is), and that you will see a modest deflation-- but it won't be anything dramatic, and it'll be something that slowly happens over the centuries, not something that fucks up everybody's purchasing power in a matter of months (as we see currently).

The great benefit of what I outline here is that the balance is reached naturally. No central planning needed or wanted. The alternative of having fiduciary currency with limited inflation to keep up with economic growth in theory achieves something quite similar. And in theory, I'd certainly welcome that as an improvement! But in practice, that still requires central planing (i.e. to determine what the "right" amount of inflation should be), and that will lead to fuck-ups. Central planning always does.

So I very much prefer the kind of solution that I've outlined. I recognise that it's rather foreign to the current way of things, but I again stress that the current way is quite unnatural; and the proposed alternative is quite natural, in fact.
 
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Bear Ribs

Well-known member
As I said, in general I agree with you but your desire for deflationary economics you ignored an entire point of what I wrote: what happens when goods drop below the threshold of your monetary value?

I used milk as an example because it's considered a critical foodstuff and cannot be bought by households in any other form to be reliably used and not have waste (IE, you cannot just increase the amount of milk sold per unit as a few gallons of milk is about the largest practical amount for a household to buy and store at a time). The cost of milk, as a percent of income, has DRAMATICALLY dropped in the last 70 years due to improvements in production, distribution, and preservation. How do you propose to balance for those improvements if the price drops below the minimum value of the currency (which milk was actually nearing if the US Dollar still had the same unit value as it did in 1950)?

That's why you want to keep things as stable as possible with the money supply, rather than deflationary (or excessively inflationary), because technology developments continue, improvements in distribution, production, etc. lower the costs of goods all while you have an increasing number of people needing to use the same money. A very slight inflationary money supply does not overly punish savings as the lost of value over time for the stored money is negligible from a practical standpoint or accounted for via interest paid on those savings (IE, if inflation is 1% but a savings account gives 2% interest) while also making sure that productivity and technological savings doesn't incidentally drop the the price of goods so low as to be impractical to produce and pay for.

In more typical economic terms, if an item is that overproduced either people quit making it so excessively, reducing supply and thus increasing the price to tolerable levels, or else the item is so cheap that people prefer to do it at home and don't pay for it at all. Propping up milk and requiring that it have a higher price than the market demands. If milk is so impossible to keep the price up, do we need as many dairy cows or could that land be used for something more profitable, if the government is no longer artificially keeping the price up?


After all in 1933, in the great depression, people were firebombing creameries and throwing millions of gallons of milk into the ditches while other people starved to death, in order to keep prices up. That's not sound economic behavior. I would compare it somewhat to the way California artificially props up rice growers, which requires insane amounts of water in their drought-ridden state, so that it can be sold, at a loss, because otherwise the California rice farms will go out of business. Perhaps it would be better for the California rice farms to go out of business and use the land and massive quantities of water for something more more profitable, and environmentally sane, than flooding fields in the desert half a foot deep and keeping it that wet for months.
 

Typhonis

Well-known member
Perhaps it would be better for the California rice farms to go out of business and use the land and massive quantities of water for something more more profitable, and environmentally sane, than flooding fields in the desert half a foot deep and keeping it that wet for months.
Not to mention how much water California ALMONDS require. If they want to farm they need to move out of the desert. Hell how much water is wasted on keeping lawns green when they could just use AstroTurf?
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Not to mention how much water California ALMONDS require. If they want to farm they need to move out of the desert. Hell how much water is wasted on keeping lawns green when they could just use AstroTurf?

California actually has potentially all the water it needs to do all of that shit.

Were by the pacific ocean and have a long coast line, and reverse osmosis tech is getting better all of the time. Functionally speaking if your by the ocean then any water woes are going to be increasingly a thing of the past. What needs to be done is to cut california off from the entirety of the colorado rivers resources because other states need that water more.
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
I think it's also worth thinking on the nature of milk and how the industry itself has been used to put down the middle class.

No really. Milk should naturally be a small family-owned business. For most of history it was and there was the ubiquitous milkman who delivered fresh milk to your doorstep each morning, only very recently has that changed.

It has a few "break points" but ultimately milk has very little in the way of efficiencies of scale, producing X more gallons of milk requires adding another cow, each cow requires X more land and feed so adding more doesn't produce more efficiencies either. You do get some efficiencies of scale since one person can milk more than one cow, that's a natural "break point" where you have as many cows as one person can milk, and then you want to expand to more people. But then there's delivery of the milk, as there's only so much territory the truck can cover so expanding past that point hits another break point, and then further increases in size mean you need vastly more land and so can't take advantage of niches that small milk operations can, producing inefficiencies of scale. Further shipping the milk overland incurs significant fuel costs and milk spoils rapidly, so many small operations servicing just their local districts are significantly more efficient and operate at a higher profit margin than large centralized outfits.

This gets interesting when you realize there's no actual value to hauling the milk long-distance. Cattle do fine in nearly every climate and we have big cattle ranches from Argentina through Mexico and all the way up to Canada. Cattle aren't water intensive (granted milk cows drink more than meat cattle, the water in that milk has to come from somewhere) and don't require prime real estate to live in. Outside of a few edge cases, there's no advantage whatsoever to shipping milk across the country in gigantic tanker trucks and fresh milk is dramatically better than shipped milk anyway so ultimately, that's a massive decrease in quality for increased expense. This is in contrast to, say, oranges where you genuinely can't grow quality oranges in Washington state and they need to be shipped there from Florida and California, but you can raise cattle in both places with decent efficiency and there's no real reason to haul milk from one to the other.

So why massive milk companies hauling inferior grades of milk across the nation in gigantic tanker trucks? Pretty much entirely the ridiculous levels of government subsidy and regulation turning what should be a natural shoe-in for small-business success into something the super rich profit off of instead.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
As I said, in general I agree with you but your desire for deflationary economics you ignored an entire point of what I wrote: what happens when goods drop below the threshold of your monetary value?
I find that you usually make pretty well-reasoned arguments, but honestly, your milk argument here is probably the weakest one I've ever seen you make.

You list a low price of $0.83, and a high of $3.53, in an argument about the dangers of deflation.

How is this a problem? If milk costs eight cents, or eighty, or eight dollars? The problem with deflation isn't how many pounds, shillings, or pennies a good cost, the problem comes when the discrete difference between the smallest units of cost is too large.

If you can sell a loaf of bread profitably at 2 cents, but it's unaffordable to most customers, but you can't sell it profitably at 1 cent, where it is affordable to most customers, then you have a problem with deflation.

If a price of between eight and ten cents is breaking even to affordably profitable, then that's just fine. Because the difference in value between increments of currency is large enough to be functional.

How on earth is your argument from the last page supposed to indicate otherwise?
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
and you exchange an old type dollar that's worth a certain mass in gold for ten new type dollars that are each worth a tenth of that same mass.
. . .

This is inflation. This was literally what governments used to do when they were ON Standards and it was called Inflation then. You're literally proposing solving deflationary problems with inflation. ;)

Issue smaller units of value just pushes the problem down the line, you're also adding more levels of complication into things for no other reason than you think deflationary economics would be better, when no government or system has ever, as far as I know, been run successfully with continual deflation. Honestly, I don't find your arguments for it in general compelling as per the dynamic changes between employer and employee because, frankly, what the employer is going to do when the employee's wage gets to high is just... fire them and hire someone at a new lower rate. Deflationary wages actually will encourage them to do that rather than negotiate with people as the loss of experience will be made up in the cost reductions gained, which is the opposite of the situation we have now where it actually ends up costing businesses more to fire employees and train new ones rather than providing regular raises (though this, even now, depends on the particulars of each job).

I find that you usually make pretty well-reasoned arguments, but honestly, your milk argument here is probably the weakest one I've ever seen you make.

You list a low price of $0.83, and a high of $3.53, in an argument about the dangers of deflation.

How is this a problem? If milk costs eight cents, or eighty, or eight dollars? The problem with deflation isn't how many pounds, shillings, or pennies a good cost, the problem comes when the discrete difference between the smallest units of cost is too large.

If you can sell a loaf of bread profitably at 2 cents, but it's unaffordable to most customers, but you can't sell it profitably at 1 cent, where it is affordable to most customers, then you have a problem with deflation.

If a price of between eight and ten cents is breaking even to affordably profitable, then that's just fine. Because the difference in value between increments of currency is large enough to be functional.

How on earth is your argument from the last page supposed to indicate otherwise?
My point is about a similar issue to that, in this case when a good or service drops below the smallest unit of currency due to deflation, which would become inevitable if you hold a constant deflationary pressure the economy as more. The base costs of the item don't matter, what matters is what percent of a person's income they represent are, and what those prices showed, when put against the average annual wage, is that the cost of a gallon of milk, despite the STICKER price being higher than in 1950, has ACTUALLY DRAMATICALLY LOWERED in the past 70 years, as the modern cost represents a much smaller fraction of someone's annual income than it did in 1950.

This is due, as I noted, to improvements in the production, distribution, and preservation of milk, gains in efficiency that, in a deflationary economy, risk dropping the cost of a product below the floor where money can be effectively used to pay for it.

For those fixating on milk or critiquing modern milk production and distribution: that's entirely besides the point I was making. My core point was that there's a reason governments have preferred slight inflation over deflation for currencies, and this goes back hundreds of years, and a large part of it has to do with the fact that as population increases and efficiencies improve if you want prices and wages to remain somewhat stable you actually need to have a slight inflationary aspect to your currency.

I am also, I think, pushing back somewhat against this idea that our modern economy is so much worse than it was in the past. People have this view that things were cheaper in the past due to inflation increasing prices, but, well, that's not actually true. While yes the sticker price for many things has gone up, in real cost, that is, as a percent of income, those prices are actually gone down, sometimes dramatically so. This is across categories, from foodstuff as I was demonstrating with milk, but also in many other areas. Here's a table I put together with just a few different items in two main categories (consumables, electronics, and durable goods):

1684901617684.png

Note that across the board when you look at item cost as a percent of income all items have dropped, some by only marginal amounts, like the cost of an entry level car, but others have dropped by truly ridiculous amounts like the cost of a 15 inch color TV.

This is why a small amount of inflation is useful, it helps allow for the economy to more easily adapt to improvements in technology and efficiency so that you do not have massive price crashes. But again, note I'm arguing for inflation that roughly keeps pace with population growth and productivity increases, which is likely something at less than 1% a year. It is certainly much lower than the utter ridiculousness that we've had since abandoning the Gold Standard.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
This is inflation. This was literally what governments used to do when they were ON Standards and it was called Inflation then. You're literally proposing solving deflationary problems with inflation.

It's really not. If you give me a dollar and I give you ten dimes, I haven't inflated any value in the transaction. Inflation is the creation of additional new currency by the government, which leaves the owners of existing currency with the same amount of dollars (even though their value is then reduced). What I outlined was:

Well, hypothetically, you could just issue ever smaller denominations. As in "a carton of milk for 50 microcents, lad". This sounds a bit strange

...so then I offered as a variant on the idea that you might also...

exchange an old type dollar that's worth a certain mass in gold for ten new type dollars that are each worth a tenth of that same mass. You keep the same value either way.

So no value is altered. Changing the names to keep the denominations familiar is just a suggestion meant for ease of use.

Either way, you retain the exact same wealth. So even if we issue "new dollars"--no matter what, whether you take the one old dollar or the new ten dollars to the bank, you can exchange this money for the same total mass in gold.

Inflation, on the other hand, would mean that the government (in the same situation, which is purposely extreme) would print 10 times as many new dollars as old dollars... and then exchange all your old dollars for one new dollar each. Leaving you with a tenth of the capital. If you wanted to buy gold for your dollars, you'd only be able to get a tenth of the 'old dollar value' for your new dollars. In other words: the government just stole 90% of your wealth.

That is inflation. That's why it's robbery. Do you see the difference? What I suggest changes the denominations for practical use, but leaves everyone with the exact same amount of capital. Inflation doesn't, which is the big problem of inflation.


...If the monetary theory is confusing for anyone reading this, imagine it like a pie. You have a pie cut into four pieces. Smaller pieces being practical, you might cut each piece in two, so you have a pie made of eight pieces. You still have all the pie, it's just cut into more pieces. That's my suggestion: merely a division into different units, when practical, for ease of use.

Inflation, conversely, is when the government cuts the four pieces into eight pieces, and then gives you back four pieces. They keep the other four "newly created" pieces. They tell you that this is fair, since you had four pieces originally, and you still have four pieces now. In reality, you're left with half the pie. Not a new division of what you have, but a malicious reduction of what you have.

Keynesianism should be a hanging offence, folks. Never doubt it.
 
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Skallagrim

Well-known member
I think the fundamental problem with the modern "big government" busybody state is that of power without accountability. They can mess up other people's lives, and suffer no harm to themselves.

Well, not in the short term that they can perceive, anyway.

(I speak as a member of the only people in history who at one point lynched, shredded and ate their prime minister...)
 

Simonbob

Well-known member
This is due, as I noted, to improvements in the production, distribution, and preservation of milk
Tech's a wonderful thing.

The more we know, and innovate, the better off we are. It does make proper understanding of if we're getting better or worse as a group harder, though.


And, honestly, I do think milk is a good example item to consider the many issues that come from our economic changes.



Oh, and as a idea, a way to deal with milk getting so cheap that existing currency has trouble dealing with it? Set up what is effectively an account. If one cent is too small for a single bottle, then how many days can you get milk for a dollar? Pay once a year, get milk every day?

Just a thought. I'm not sure I'd want to go that way, myself.
 

Bear Ribs

Well-known member
View attachment 1695

Note that across the board when you look at item cost as a percent of income all items have dropped, some by only marginal amounts, like the cost of an entry level car, but others have dropped by truly ridiculous amounts like the cost of a 15 inch color TV.
I distrust those figures.

This is absolutely not to suggest you personally are lying but rather I think that data has been distorted and massaged to give a different outcome than is present in reality, as well as them making some suspicious choices.

Just as an example, in 1946, Richard Nixon signed into law the National School Lunch Act which, among other things, mandated that every child be given 1/2-2 pints of milk daily. This massive increase in demand shot the price of milk up 20 cents a gallon on the spot and it did not decrease until new dairy farms could be brought online to meet demand, which happened around 1951. Prices started dropping in 1955 when paper cartons started replacing (reusable) glass bottles, increasing litter but reducing shipping costs by unloading those litter costs onto the state and consumer. Meanwhile, in 2020, milk prices were quite reduced due to increased competition from soy milk and almond milk, though during the pandemic milk prices raised back up dramatically.

So if somebody wanted to present some deeply misleading data, they would quite likely want to throw down 1950 to 2020 as an ideal positioning to suggest that milk prices have dramatically dropped.

I'm less informed about other industries (I did work in the agricultural industry dealing with cattle for many years) but a brief search let me find an advertisement from 1950 showing tomato soup, on sale 2 cans for 32 cents, significantly higher than their suggestion of 10 cents. A glance at bicycle listings shows new single-speeds ranging from 200 to 2500 dollars, I know they didn't pick the same bike model for 1950 and 2020, design and fashion have changed too much over those years, but 400 seems remarkably cheap to me given that range and I suspect they picked a high-end top model for 1950 and a low-end starter for 2020 to massage the data.

For cars imma bet they chose the Ford Custom Deluxe, which retailed for 1,510+ in 1950 and thus matches their price very neatly. Now I can find entry-level cars as low as their 2020 listing but no sedans, I need to go down to micro-compacts like the Spark that have a back seat that's cramped for hobbits and a trunk that can almost hold 2 rolls of toilet paper. Comparing it with a similar-sized Ford Sedan suggests the Fusion is a decent match (it's just a touch smaller but has more HP), which retails for $23,170 - 36,450. Note that the Ford Custom Deluxe wasn't exactly "entry level," it was Ford's Top Trim Level meaning the most loaded, highest-end model. So somebody's playing with their numbers, though the Fusion is still a decent comparison as long as we're comparing the high-end Fusion.

Finally, Inflation-adjusted, $1,510.00 should come out to $16,215.96 in 2020 dollars. So the car situation is significantly worse than they're suggesting. Even the incredi-awful Spark costs more in 2020 than a Custom Deluxe in 1950 when adjusted for real inflation instead of their fairy numbers. I've gotten this same result from multiple calculators and indices. The fact that they claim it would be $25,454.02 tells me that they're also heavily futzing with what they claim the inflation rate is in order to produce deceptive numbers.
 

Sergeant Foley

Well-known member
I found this little essay on Quora, and thought I'd post it for comments here:

In light of Biden Inflation Crisis, it sure sounds like it.
 

Aaron Fox

Well-known member
... here's the rub on the 'disappearance of the middle class in the US': Automation.

It should be noted that by 1987, automation started to displace more jobs than it replaced, and the jobs that it was first applied to tended to be jobs that were widely considered 'middle class', things like many non-precision product factories (things like cars) or even mining jobs. This accelerated when unions got their backs broken, allowing employers to basically do quite a lot to their workers that would otherwise be impossible (like stagflating the wages).

The thing is that automation has a perception screw to it, making it harder to pin the blame on automation. An automated factory still looks like a factory but an outsourced factory is an abandoned building.

In light of Biden Inflation Crisis, it sure sounds like it.
There isn't an inflation crisis, that's just propaganda to lure you into voting for the worse option (the GOP).

People forget that the government has very few tools to even tackle things like inflation and deflation, and that getting rid of the National Bank is always a bad idea (though, in some cases that incarnation of the National Bank did it upon themselves for being complete assholes).

In addition a currency standard is far more trouble than its worth in the long run. Might work at slower economic velocities but once you hit a certain economic velocity threshold (which, unsurprisingly, hit during the 1930s/1940s), you're going to literally wreck your economy more than help it (even the petrol-currencies will have this problem eventually, despite the fact that they're using the cornerstone material of our economy).
 

Morphic Tide

Well-known member
... here's the rub on the 'disappearance of the middle class in the US': Automation.
I still hold that it would not be nearly as much of an issue without corporations taking full control over the capital involved. If residuals for the automation were a thing, instead of habitually stripping all IP rights by contract, then there'd be a decently-sized upper-middle-class/lower-upper-class cohort of engineers instead of virtually all of the productivity increases going straight to the managers and financiers.
 

Zachowon

The Army Life for me! The POG life for me!
Founder
Let's look into perspective of someone with a truly fixed income.
Me
I make roughly 1500 a paycheck. Which is twice a month, and I get a few extra hundred due to COLA fir being overseas.
This is based on my rank and years in.
I can only survive off this amount due to having no rent, water, or electric bills
 

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