sillygoose
Well-known member
Unfortunately I was unable to attach here a situation map from January 7th from Glantz's symposium on the war situation in late 1944 to the start of the Berlin operation which makes this TL easier to understand, but you can access it here, slide #707:
1986 Art of War Symposium : from the Vistula to the Oder, Soviet offensive operations, October 1944 - March 1945 ; transcript of proceedings.
This particular scenario is an enhancement of the historical Zamoly offensive (look for the 3rd and 23rd Panzer divisions on the map, part of the 1st Cavalry Corps opposite the Soviet 20th GRC) launched on January 7th and ran for a few days to draw Soviet forces off of the axis of advance of the IV SS Panzer Corps to the north and happened during the end of Operation Konrad I and the first part of Konrad II.
During OTL battle of the bulge several units were thrown into the meat grinder in the west very late, showing up around December 28th. In an ATL where the Aachen bulge is the objective I don't think they'll be needed in the west, since it would largely be wrapped up or at least nearly wrapped by units already there by the 28th. That means they would be available for Hungary where there was a serious lack of infantry, especially for the Zamoly operation.
The units would be the 167th Volksgrenadier division (already training in Austria, so close by) and the 9th VG division (training in Denmark), both of which would have at least an extra 2 weeks to train and prepare for combat. I could probably toss in the 79th VG division as well, but let's say it was used in the west per OTL so as not to make it too easy. At the same time as those two divisions were sent to the Bulge IOTL an artillery brigade and rocket launcher brigade were also sent with them, so I'm having both of those sent to Hungary ITTL too.
Historically both divisions were at full strength, about 10,000 men each, while Soviet rifle divisions were averaging about 5000 men or less in Hungary as of January given that they had been attacking since October and hadn't had a chance to refit yet nor were they the priority for replacements. So where I'm going to have them added in each will be at least twice the strength of the opposing individual Soviet divisions.
I'm having them put opposite the Soviet 135th RC which at this point had the 1st Guards Fortified Region (a static defensive formation very light on infantry, but heavy on firepower and engineers to hold a specific sector), 69th Guards Rifle Division, 252nd Rifle Division, and 84th Rifle division. On the 7th the 69th GRD moved to Székesfehérvár to defend the city, where the 4th Guards Army HQ was (also on German situation maps, so they knew it) and to that point only defended by 1 depleted regiment of the 84th RD, but wasn't there as of the morning when the German offensive started. So they'll still be on the line away from the city when this extra element of the offensive would be started.
I'd say that the 167th VGD would be used to replace the 1st Panzer division on the line opposite the 1st GFR and 69th GRD on January 1st so it would have time to rest and prepare for their part in the offensive, rather than being stuck holding the line and launching some feints to distract the Soviets. ITTL the 167th would launch those feints to pin the 69th GRD in place...and since it would have twice the strength of the 69th it would be able to effectively screen the fortified region and feint as well (the Hungarian divisions in the area would help too, which might give them a handy superiority in overall numbers and firepower).
Meanwhile on January 7th when the Zamoly offensive would be launched the 9th VGD and 1st PzD would attack east toward Székesfehérvár since the Zamoly axis is already filled up with attacking armored units. The Panzer-infantry combat team would breach the juncture of the 252nd and 84th RDs (the 84th is already distracted and somewhat engaged by the 23rd PzD attacking to it's right flank) with the infantry pushing the breach into a full opening for the 1st PzD to exploit through toward Székesfehérvár and 4th Guards HQ. Given the weakness of the defenses of the city on the 7th and fact that the 69th GRD wouldn't be there yet and instead pinned down by the 167th VGD 1st PzD should be able to capture the city on it's own while the 9th VGD pushes against the flank of the 84th and 252nd RDs to prevent them from doing anything.
Given that during Operation Konrad III which attacked in this very region with tremendous success, in fact causing the Soviet infantry to run away and leave what meager AT weapons they had to the mercy of the combined arms assault teams, the even weaker Soviet defenses at this time should largely evaporate in the face of a joint infantry-panzer assault and would have no reserves capable of stopping them given that the Zamoly operation was more threatening and consuming the Soviet reserves in the area.
Now I've left out the role of the extra artillery, which is a massive enhancement over OTL for this area. The rocket brigade would be immensely helpful, as the Zamoly attack was actually outgunned by Soviet artillery by a large margin even before Soviet reserves were committed, though they were somewhat saved by the fact that the Soviets were very short on artillery ammo (their major counter offensive on the 9th of January in this area could only muster a 3 minute artillery prep before running out of ammo, which resulted in the offensive failing badly with heavy losses).
I'd say have the rockets committed to the Zamoly operation, which may well make it succeed given how the Soviets counterattacked often and rockets are at their most deadly against troops and armor in the open in denser formations as the Soviets were wont to do. Shattering Soviet counterattacks as well as having a very powerful suppressive fire unit during their attacks would probably allow the offensive to start really making progress compared to the OTL results of just shoving a bulge in Soviet lines.
The Volksartilleriekorps (an army level support unit) would be used to support 9th VGD and 1st PzD, which would give them a massive firepower advantage as not only would it have it's 8 battalions of divisional artillery (4 per division), but 6 additional heavy artillery battalions (including 3x 210mm heavy howitzers) that were entirely motorized. That unit, IIRC, also had a fire direction center that could mass the fires of the entire brigade AND any divisional artillery regiments, which means they'd be heavily outgunning the Soviet rifle corps, which was little more than a heavily reinforced division even at full strength. Historically Konrad III was supported by 1 such unit and achieved firepower dominance which enabled a quick breach of the Soviet lines. Here with fewer divisions attacking and a more focused section of the line to be breached they'd be able to ensure maximum fire support for the limited number of troops they were attacking with as well as heavy concentrations against the limited number of Soviet defenders. Extremely bad news for the Soviets.
IMHO the 84th RD would basically be crushed on the 1st day of the offensive and the 252nd put in such a bad position that it would be a non-factor against the offensive once the initial breach happened and probably have to require support from the 69th GRD just to survive.
That effectively leaves Székesfehérvár virtually undefended and probably taken no later than the afternoon of January 7th...which means 4th GA HQ is overrun by 1st PzD. That means the entire Soviet defense is fucked since they'd have lost their army command as well as major supply center and now have a massive flank breach that would allow both the 9th VGD and 1st PzD to slam into the flank of the Soviet troops trying to hold Zamoly and counterattacking the 1st Cav Corps. At that point IV SS Panzer Corps to the north, 1st Cav Corps attacking Zamoly, and the Székesfehérvár attack group would be able to pincer the 4th Guards Army corps between them (68th RC, 5th GCC, 20th GRC, parts of the 31st and 21st GRCs, and part of the 135th GRC). Maybe I lack imagination, but it seems like a plausible course of action by the Germans given their historical goals for the Zamoly operation had they had the extra forces ITTL.
Crushing all those Soviet corps in several days instead of Operation Konrad II (butterflied by the success on the 7th) would free up enormous German resources to continue to advance on Budapest, as that would free up at least 2 corps on their side, plus eliminate the major southwestern flank threat that hampered the SS corps AND opens up major new supply routes for the offensive. The Soviets lose massive amounts of men, equipment, and supplies, as the 4th Guards Army would virtually cease to exist, leaving only the 46th army, the force attacking Budapest from the west of the Danube, to hold the line. Not only that, but the 3rd Ukrainian Front would lose virtually ALL of its armor and non-infantry divisions/corps.
That'd force 2nd Ukrainian Front to break off it's assaults east of the Danube on Budapest as 3rd UkF would require at least 2 rifle corps to hold its positions or have to pull back over the Danube ASAP. 46th Army would also have to break off any attacks on Budapest, which means that the city, virtually on the brink of collapse, would be able to hold its positions with much less stress and be able to organize attacks to aid relieving forces.
57th Army (not pictured on map, it's south Lake Balaton) would also have to contribute corps to reestablish lines south of Székesfehérvár, which in turn makes it vulnerable to attacks by the German 2nd army (or 2nd Panzer army, I forget which), which was holding the line opposite the Soviet 57th (historically that was called Operation Icebreaker, a plan to help support Konrad III as 57th Army corps were heading north to stem the breach in Soviet lines). If also supported by Army Group F in Croatia holding the Drava river line, they could also then cut off the 3rd UkF supply lines to (and escape routes of) the 57th Army via Mohacs, which would be fatal to the 3rd UkF and require a retreat by any surviving units over the Danube and probably leave them unable to attack again probably for the rest of the war even with replacement armies sent from STAVKA reserve. They'd just be able to hold the Danube line, which would be too strong for them to breach if properly defended by a German-Hungarian army given breathing room to set up proper defenses, which they weren't when the Soviets originally crossed it in early December 1944.
Also the Bulgarian army would be trapped by the Army Group F attack over the Drava river and wiped out, which creates some interesting political issues for the Soviets, while the Yugoslavs now have to face the Germans in Croatia without any Soviet support, something that would probably cause major problems for them and prevent their historical advance in the region and collapse of German defenses in Spring.
All of that prevents the fall of Budapest and saves at least 70,000 Axis troops (half German, half Hungarian) in the capital, preserves Axis positions in the region and frees up a lot of economic resources that had been lost in December 1944 (including important oil refineries in Budapest) probably results in substantial new manpower resources (both PoW labor AND Hungarian volunteers since after experiencing Soviet occupation all the men who had been dodging the draft or actually supporting the Soviets in the hopes of good treatment and a quick end to the war found out what Soviet occupation really meant and resulted in them mobbing German units to try and volunteer to fight every time a village was liberated per a number of accounts of the campaign). Also all those captured Soviet weapons and supplies could be in turn used to equip the Hungarians, who were notoriously ill-equipped by this point in the war, which would tremendously boost their combat effectiveness, both as a result of being able to match Soviet firepower, but also by improved morale, as they wouldn't be going into a fight knowing they'd be outgunned and outnumbered.
It's a complete game changer event for this front and prevents the Soviets from being able to advance into Austria and Czechoslovakia in April. Plus it means 6th Panzer Army when shipped East won't go to Hungary, it goes to Poland where it was really needed. Not only that, but a lot of powerful German units in the area now are freed up to go after the 2nd UkF and won't suffer the losses they took IOTL launching Konrad III and barely surviving Soviet counterattacks when the operation stalled. 2nd UkF would be on it's own for a long while while 3rd UkF is rebuilt, so would be quite vulnerable to the now freed up Axis forces, which would amount to at least 2 panzer corps, one of them a powerful, well led, and highly experienced SS unit. A panzer corps was equivalent to Soviet tank army and at this point there was only a single such Soviet unit in Hungary, the heavily depleted 6th Guards Tank Army, which was down to about 20-25% strength by January 20th as a result of a failed offensive north of the Danube.
If able to get it moving quickly enough after the liberation of Budapest IV Panzer Corps had the strength to attack east of the Danube via Budapest and crush what was left of the 6th GTA and whatever significant residual Soviet armored units were available to the overstretched and worn down 2nd UkF. That pretty much means the Soviets are stuck reinforcing a collapsing front rather than reinforcing Poland or the East Prussian offensive in January-February, while the Germans can send two very powerful SS panzer corps (I and II, the corps making up the 6th Panzer Army) to Poland. Even assuming the Soviets do just as well there as they did IOTL by February the addition of the 6th Panzer army to Operation Solstice then Zhukov's Belarussian Front is likely to have a bad end and require the Soviets to pull back their lines to cover the massive gapping hole that would result. Plus now they'd lack the necessary reinforcements/replacements they got to continue pushing against Berlin/East Prussia as a result of needing to reinforce to prevent from being run out of Hungary entirely.
Thoughts? Any opinions that it would have on the rest of the war?
1986 Art of War Symposium : from the Vistula to the Oder, Soviet offensive operations, October 1944 - March 1945 ; transcript of proceedings.
This particular scenario is an enhancement of the historical Zamoly offensive (look for the 3rd and 23rd Panzer divisions on the map, part of the 1st Cavalry Corps opposite the Soviet 20th GRC) launched on January 7th and ran for a few days to draw Soviet forces off of the axis of advance of the IV SS Panzer Corps to the north and happened during the end of Operation Konrad I and the first part of Konrad II.
During OTL battle of the bulge several units were thrown into the meat grinder in the west very late, showing up around December 28th. In an ATL where the Aachen bulge is the objective I don't think they'll be needed in the west, since it would largely be wrapped up or at least nearly wrapped by units already there by the 28th. That means they would be available for Hungary where there was a serious lack of infantry, especially for the Zamoly operation.
The units would be the 167th Volksgrenadier division (already training in Austria, so close by) and the 9th VG division (training in Denmark), both of which would have at least an extra 2 weeks to train and prepare for combat. I could probably toss in the 79th VG division as well, but let's say it was used in the west per OTL so as not to make it too easy. At the same time as those two divisions were sent to the Bulge IOTL an artillery brigade and rocket launcher brigade were also sent with them, so I'm having both of those sent to Hungary ITTL too.
Historically both divisions were at full strength, about 10,000 men each, while Soviet rifle divisions were averaging about 5000 men or less in Hungary as of January given that they had been attacking since October and hadn't had a chance to refit yet nor were they the priority for replacements. So where I'm going to have them added in each will be at least twice the strength of the opposing individual Soviet divisions.
I'm having them put opposite the Soviet 135th RC which at this point had the 1st Guards Fortified Region (a static defensive formation very light on infantry, but heavy on firepower and engineers to hold a specific sector), 69th Guards Rifle Division, 252nd Rifle Division, and 84th Rifle division. On the 7th the 69th GRD moved to Székesfehérvár to defend the city, where the 4th Guards Army HQ was (also on German situation maps, so they knew it) and to that point only defended by 1 depleted regiment of the 84th RD, but wasn't there as of the morning when the German offensive started. So they'll still be on the line away from the city when this extra element of the offensive would be started.
I'd say that the 167th VGD would be used to replace the 1st Panzer division on the line opposite the 1st GFR and 69th GRD on January 1st so it would have time to rest and prepare for their part in the offensive, rather than being stuck holding the line and launching some feints to distract the Soviets. ITTL the 167th would launch those feints to pin the 69th GRD in place...and since it would have twice the strength of the 69th it would be able to effectively screen the fortified region and feint as well (the Hungarian divisions in the area would help too, which might give them a handy superiority in overall numbers and firepower).
Meanwhile on January 7th when the Zamoly offensive would be launched the 9th VGD and 1st PzD would attack east toward Székesfehérvár since the Zamoly axis is already filled up with attacking armored units. The Panzer-infantry combat team would breach the juncture of the 252nd and 84th RDs (the 84th is already distracted and somewhat engaged by the 23rd PzD attacking to it's right flank) with the infantry pushing the breach into a full opening for the 1st PzD to exploit through toward Székesfehérvár and 4th Guards HQ. Given the weakness of the defenses of the city on the 7th and fact that the 69th GRD wouldn't be there yet and instead pinned down by the 167th VGD 1st PzD should be able to capture the city on it's own while the 9th VGD pushes against the flank of the 84th and 252nd RDs to prevent them from doing anything.
Given that during Operation Konrad III which attacked in this very region with tremendous success, in fact causing the Soviet infantry to run away and leave what meager AT weapons they had to the mercy of the combined arms assault teams, the even weaker Soviet defenses at this time should largely evaporate in the face of a joint infantry-panzer assault and would have no reserves capable of stopping them given that the Zamoly operation was more threatening and consuming the Soviet reserves in the area.
Now I've left out the role of the extra artillery, which is a massive enhancement over OTL for this area. The rocket brigade would be immensely helpful, as the Zamoly attack was actually outgunned by Soviet artillery by a large margin even before Soviet reserves were committed, though they were somewhat saved by the fact that the Soviets were very short on artillery ammo (their major counter offensive on the 9th of January in this area could only muster a 3 minute artillery prep before running out of ammo, which resulted in the offensive failing badly with heavy losses).
I'd say have the rockets committed to the Zamoly operation, which may well make it succeed given how the Soviets counterattacked often and rockets are at their most deadly against troops and armor in the open in denser formations as the Soviets were wont to do. Shattering Soviet counterattacks as well as having a very powerful suppressive fire unit during their attacks would probably allow the offensive to start really making progress compared to the OTL results of just shoving a bulge in Soviet lines.
The Volksartilleriekorps (an army level support unit) would be used to support 9th VGD and 1st PzD, which would give them a massive firepower advantage as not only would it have it's 8 battalions of divisional artillery (4 per division), but 6 additional heavy artillery battalions (including 3x 210mm heavy howitzers) that were entirely motorized. That unit, IIRC, also had a fire direction center that could mass the fires of the entire brigade AND any divisional artillery regiments, which means they'd be heavily outgunning the Soviet rifle corps, which was little more than a heavily reinforced division even at full strength. Historically Konrad III was supported by 1 such unit and achieved firepower dominance which enabled a quick breach of the Soviet lines. Here with fewer divisions attacking and a more focused section of the line to be breached they'd be able to ensure maximum fire support for the limited number of troops they were attacking with as well as heavy concentrations against the limited number of Soviet defenders. Extremely bad news for the Soviets.
IMHO the 84th RD would basically be crushed on the 1st day of the offensive and the 252nd put in such a bad position that it would be a non-factor against the offensive once the initial breach happened and probably have to require support from the 69th GRD just to survive.
That effectively leaves Székesfehérvár virtually undefended and probably taken no later than the afternoon of January 7th...which means 4th GA HQ is overrun by 1st PzD. That means the entire Soviet defense is fucked since they'd have lost their army command as well as major supply center and now have a massive flank breach that would allow both the 9th VGD and 1st PzD to slam into the flank of the Soviet troops trying to hold Zamoly and counterattacking the 1st Cav Corps. At that point IV SS Panzer Corps to the north, 1st Cav Corps attacking Zamoly, and the Székesfehérvár attack group would be able to pincer the 4th Guards Army corps between them (68th RC, 5th GCC, 20th GRC, parts of the 31st and 21st GRCs, and part of the 135th GRC). Maybe I lack imagination, but it seems like a plausible course of action by the Germans given their historical goals for the Zamoly operation had they had the extra forces ITTL.
Crushing all those Soviet corps in several days instead of Operation Konrad II (butterflied by the success on the 7th) would free up enormous German resources to continue to advance on Budapest, as that would free up at least 2 corps on their side, plus eliminate the major southwestern flank threat that hampered the SS corps AND opens up major new supply routes for the offensive. The Soviets lose massive amounts of men, equipment, and supplies, as the 4th Guards Army would virtually cease to exist, leaving only the 46th army, the force attacking Budapest from the west of the Danube, to hold the line. Not only that, but the 3rd Ukrainian Front would lose virtually ALL of its armor and non-infantry divisions/corps.
That'd force 2nd Ukrainian Front to break off it's assaults east of the Danube on Budapest as 3rd UkF would require at least 2 rifle corps to hold its positions or have to pull back over the Danube ASAP. 46th Army would also have to break off any attacks on Budapest, which means that the city, virtually on the brink of collapse, would be able to hold its positions with much less stress and be able to organize attacks to aid relieving forces.
57th Army (not pictured on map, it's south Lake Balaton) would also have to contribute corps to reestablish lines south of Székesfehérvár, which in turn makes it vulnerable to attacks by the German 2nd army (or 2nd Panzer army, I forget which), which was holding the line opposite the Soviet 57th (historically that was called Operation Icebreaker, a plan to help support Konrad III as 57th Army corps were heading north to stem the breach in Soviet lines). If also supported by Army Group F in Croatia holding the Drava river line, they could also then cut off the 3rd UkF supply lines to (and escape routes of) the 57th Army via Mohacs, which would be fatal to the 3rd UkF and require a retreat by any surviving units over the Danube and probably leave them unable to attack again probably for the rest of the war even with replacement armies sent from STAVKA reserve. They'd just be able to hold the Danube line, which would be too strong for them to breach if properly defended by a German-Hungarian army given breathing room to set up proper defenses, which they weren't when the Soviets originally crossed it in early December 1944.
Also the Bulgarian army would be trapped by the Army Group F attack over the Drava river and wiped out, which creates some interesting political issues for the Soviets, while the Yugoslavs now have to face the Germans in Croatia without any Soviet support, something that would probably cause major problems for them and prevent their historical advance in the region and collapse of German defenses in Spring.
All of that prevents the fall of Budapest and saves at least 70,000 Axis troops (half German, half Hungarian) in the capital, preserves Axis positions in the region and frees up a lot of economic resources that had been lost in December 1944 (including important oil refineries in Budapest) probably results in substantial new manpower resources (both PoW labor AND Hungarian volunteers since after experiencing Soviet occupation all the men who had been dodging the draft or actually supporting the Soviets in the hopes of good treatment and a quick end to the war found out what Soviet occupation really meant and resulted in them mobbing German units to try and volunteer to fight every time a village was liberated per a number of accounts of the campaign). Also all those captured Soviet weapons and supplies could be in turn used to equip the Hungarians, who were notoriously ill-equipped by this point in the war, which would tremendously boost their combat effectiveness, both as a result of being able to match Soviet firepower, but also by improved morale, as they wouldn't be going into a fight knowing they'd be outgunned and outnumbered.
It's a complete game changer event for this front and prevents the Soviets from being able to advance into Austria and Czechoslovakia in April. Plus it means 6th Panzer Army when shipped East won't go to Hungary, it goes to Poland where it was really needed. Not only that, but a lot of powerful German units in the area now are freed up to go after the 2nd UkF and won't suffer the losses they took IOTL launching Konrad III and barely surviving Soviet counterattacks when the operation stalled. 2nd UkF would be on it's own for a long while while 3rd UkF is rebuilt, so would be quite vulnerable to the now freed up Axis forces, which would amount to at least 2 panzer corps, one of them a powerful, well led, and highly experienced SS unit. A panzer corps was equivalent to Soviet tank army and at this point there was only a single such Soviet unit in Hungary, the heavily depleted 6th Guards Tank Army, which was down to about 20-25% strength by January 20th as a result of a failed offensive north of the Danube.
If able to get it moving quickly enough after the liberation of Budapest IV Panzer Corps had the strength to attack east of the Danube via Budapest and crush what was left of the 6th GTA and whatever significant residual Soviet armored units were available to the overstretched and worn down 2nd UkF. That pretty much means the Soviets are stuck reinforcing a collapsing front rather than reinforcing Poland or the East Prussian offensive in January-February, while the Germans can send two very powerful SS panzer corps (I and II, the corps making up the 6th Panzer Army) to Poland. Even assuming the Soviets do just as well there as they did IOTL by February the addition of the 6th Panzer army to Operation Solstice then Zhukov's Belarussian Front is likely to have a bad end and require the Soviets to pull back their lines to cover the massive gapping hole that would result. Plus now they'd lack the necessary reinforcements/replacements they got to continue pushing against Berlin/East Prussia as a result of needing to reinforce to prevent from being run out of Hungary entirely.
Thoughts? Any opinions that it would have on the rest of the war?
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