Alternate offensive in Hungary 1945

[History Learner]

A thought: part of the Soviet success in August Storm was derived from the Russians achieving a certain level of surprise. IGHQ and the like expected they (the Soviets) would be unready to commence an offensive until early 1946 or late 1945; some, particularly in the Kwantung Army itself, were expecting even earlier, perhaps September. August, however, was unexpected simply because the Japanese were well aware of the Soviet logistical lackings in the Far East and the level of supply needed caused them to doubt such an early offensive. How Moscow got away with it-as they did most things in WWII concerning material-was rely on Lend Lease. The protocols agreed to in the earlier part of the year led to things like Operation HULA and MILEPOST, which allowed for the earlier Soviet attack.

While Stalin will still, undoubtedly, want to attack the Japanese the need to rebuild his forces-presuming the Lend Lease extensions still happen-would alone be sufficient to delay the timeframe for his offensive. In such a case, the Japanese will be ready with prepared fortifications and be expecting the attack; IF IGHQ decides to use the lull to their full advantage and launch a preemptive strike, Soviet sources are pretty firm this would be a disaster for themselves given the supply and force transfer limitations of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Regardless, either way sees much, much less Soviet success.

 

[BlackDragon98]

If the Hungarians were trained by the Germans and received the equipment left behind by the fleeing Soviets, then supplies later by the Western Allies, along with the geography, I could see them fighting a very effective guerilla war against the Soviets. If they're successful in this revolutionary war, then this could very well lead to a domino effect in all of Soviet occupied Eastern Europe. Which would lead to the Western Allies giving them weapons in order to try an imitate the success of Hungary, and this would most likely coincide with Stalin's earlier death, from the stress WWII and the Hungarian Revolution. This has the potential likelihood of undoing all of the gains that the Soviets had made from the WWII, without taking away what's lost. This, along with Stalin's death, could very well serve as the final death knell for the Soviet Union, serving as a catalyst for a earlier fall.

In OTL the Allies supported anti-Soviet partisans in the Baltics, OP Jungle, using former German S-boots to ship in supplies.
The Forest Brothers used lots of German and Soviet equipment during their fight against the Soviets which lasted until the 1960s.
If the Allies supported anti-Soviet groups all across Eastern Europe and they were about the same quality as the Forest Brothers, the Soviets could be effectively driven back to the border.
The Allies could recruit ethnic Germans who fled Eastern Europe after WW2 as well. Those people have a helluva bone to pick with the Soviets and they know their homelands.

While Stalin will still, undoubtedly, want to attack the Japanese the need to rebuild his forces-presuming the Lend Lease extensions still happen-would alone be sufficient to delay the timeframe for his offensive. In such a case, the Japanese will be ready with prepared fortifications and be expecting the attack; IF IGHQ decides to use the lull to their full advantage and launch a preemptive strike, Soviet sources are pretty firm this would be a disaster for themselves given the supply and force transfer limitations of the Trans-Siberian Railway. Regardless, either way sees much, much less Soviet success.

Did the Japanese have it in themselves to take Vladivostok at this point?

Because that would be a pretty big "oof" moment for the Soviets.

 

[sillygoose]

In OTL the Allies supported anti-Soviet partisans in the Baltics, OP Jungle, using former German S-boots to ship in supplies.
The Forest Brothers used lots of German and Soviet equipment during their fight against the Soviets which lasted until the 1960s.
If the Allies supported anti-Soviet groups all across Eastern Europe and they were about the same quality as the Forest Brothers, the Soviets could be effectively driven back to the border.
The Allies could recruit ethnic Germans who fled Eastern Europe after WW2 as well. Those people have a helluva bone to pick with the Soviets and they know their homelands.

Problem was the Cambridge 5 warned the Soviets about all those operations, which killed them in the end:

The Game: KGB against CIA and SIS in the Baltic States 1945-1956

On 1940 Soviet Union occupied and annexed three Baltic States- Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. On 1941 Nazi Germany marched in setup their own occupation. During the battles of 1944-1945 Soviets returned to Baltic States. German

www.numbers-stations.com

 

[History Learner]

Did the Japanese have it in themselves to take Vladivostok at this point?

Because that would be a pretty big "oof" moment for the Soviets.

The Soviets considered it very possible and were so concerned as to share said issues with the Americans. On the flipside, though, the Japanese had ceased all offensive planning in 1944 and had begun to use the Kwantung Army as a reserve bank. That was the other major factor for the Soviet success in 1945; the Kwantung Army had been reduced far below its prior strength and with many of its best units withdrawn for duty elsewhere.