The US was less Woke in 2008 than it was right now. But there will undoubtedly be a huge surge of Wokeness, possibly nationwide, if our first black President gets killed. Interestingly enough, in a private conversation to some students, my 11th grade history teacher actually feared that this might happen after Obama got elected. Him getting assassinated by some racist nutjob, I mean.
Alternate History Ideas and Discussion
- Thread starter AndrewJTalon
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The US was less Woke in 2008 than it was right now. But there will undoubtedly be a huge surge of Wokeness, possibly nationwide, if our first black President gets killed. Interestingly enough, in a private conversation to some students, my 11th grade history teacher actually feared that this might happen after Obama got elected. Him getting assassinated by some racist nutjob, I mean.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
‘Nukes Become Useless After 1945’.
Consequently, Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only examples of nuclear weapons being used in wartime. Additionally, all subsequent nuclear tests end in failure, without exception — meaning ATL Cold War should prove… interesting, to say the least. (e.g., Heavier investment in chemical and biological weapons instead.)
Consequently, Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only examples of nuclear weapons being used in wartime. Additionally, all subsequent nuclear tests end in failure, without exception — meaning ATL Cold War should prove… interesting, to say the least. (e.g., Heavier investment in chemical and biological weapons instead.)
You need ASBs for this to work, I think?
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Well, they violate the laws of physics, so yes.
However, I’ve seen quite a few ASB premises posted here — some of which I’ve posted myself, in fact — so if ISOTs and time travel are fine, then I figure this one’s A-okay, too.
VictortheMonarch
Victor the Crusader
Via Economic Collapse and a bit more political bullshit. Let's say that the 2008 Presidential Election is too close to call and both Candidates declare victory, neither backing down. This somehow culminates in a civil war between the states that side with either canidate before ambitious fellers here and yonder make their own sides. lets say a ceasefire in 2015.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
With this sort of POD, we’re literally talking 1850s and ’60s levels of political animosity here.
Never mind how you’d need a critical mass of people desperate enough to risk ducking and covering as a bombing raid levels their house, or holding their battle buddies as they bleed out in their laps, which — we Westerners being spoiled rotten compared to places where civil wars rage regularly, like Africa and the Middle East — seems pretty unreasonable for 2008. If things didn’t devolve to that point during the Great Depression, then I don’t see civil war breaking out here, either.
Circle of Willis
Well-known member
Agreed, I can't really imagine Obama & McCain being willing to contest the election results. Hillary Clinton's Hillary Clinton and I imagine she will try to grasp for power if she thinks she genuinely has a shot (ex. deadlocked Electoral College, although in that case she really just needs the post-2006 Dem majority in the House to vote for her...) but I don't see the rest of the Republican stable that year being willing to play hardball with such high stakes either.
I think the last decent bet for a 2ACW & Balkanization, or at least an American Troubles/Years of Lead equivalent, before Current Year™ would have been the '60s-'70s when you had far-left psychos like the Weather Underground & Symbionese Liberation Army going on bombing/kidnapping/murder sprees, their far-right counterparts like the Secret Army Organization and the 3rd KKK or Rockwell's Nazi Party similarly planning or actually executing domestic terrorist schemes, and the FBI's COINTELPRO in full swing. I would say even the present-day US hasn't reached that point just yet - and certainly the country seems much too stable & affluent from Reagan's first term up until 2016 to foster such extreme polarization & animosity.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Generally in accord here, though even in your "Worst-case Sixties!" scenario, I think it'd be more akin to The Troubles 2.0 or Weimar Republic street battles between rival paramilitaries, law enforcement, and the armed forces than the original ACW — never mind more recent (and arguably way messier, somewhat more "asymmetric") conflicts that prompted a full-blown national collapse, like the Yugoslav Wars or Russian Civil War.
I would, however, accede that while it's more of a "Future History" topic, it's entirely possible we'll have a Second ACW some time in the future. Probably by the mid to late stages of this century, if I were to guess, as well as against a backdrop of the rest of the world undergoing another "Global Crisis Period" reminiscent of the last couple of times this happened. Would be willing to continue our discussion on that elsewhere if you'd like, but for now, those are my two cents.
And competend KGB would found 100 rascist nutjobs to do so,if they need it.
Who would even do not need that their leader who ordered them murder Obama was KGB.And think,that they did so for USA.
To be honest,i am schocked that KGB lost so good occasion to eliminate USA.
Or China.They should be capable of pulling it,too.
That explain it.They could accidentally create normal USA.
Easy to get.Ming hold on part of territory/South/,Manchur take rest.
He was among legions of all religious backgrounds. Unlike his [Christian] relatives who engaged in bloody internal massacres he never did. You need to learn from history rather than rely on your bigoted delusions.
Constantine made a partial conversion to Christianity because there were already a lot of Christians in the eastern lands he wanted to rule and the predominantly pagan west didn't particularly bother about the emperor's religion - which came back to bite them when he persecuted them later. Even so he hedged his bets until finally converting formally on his death-bed, possibly because of the bribe of Christianity makes it so tempting to the dying. Interesting John Julius Norwich came to the same conclusion as I did when writing his history of Byzantium that the [often forced] conversion of the empire to Christianity gravely weakened the empire because of the continued division and conflict it prompted.
Zyobot
Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
My bad, mistyped “Ming” when I meant to type “Qing”.
So, rather: ‘Post-Qing China Remains Permanently Divided’. In that case, I assume Russia and Japan will want their shares of the pie, or the Chinese Civil War rages for decades longer with no end in sight.
And pagans still do not belived in their shit.How many of them die in name of their gods?
Roman emperors becomed christians,becouse only christians belived in their faith.
Or,USA and other powers agree to partition of China.In that case,we would have divided China to our times - althought it would be probably soviet and USA part only.
Skallagrim
Well-known member
I must admit that I find the earlier, not-actually-intended POD to be the far more interesting one. I believe the best way to achieve it is for the Chongzhen Emperor to heed the advice to evacuate his court from the North. This would assure continuity of government for the Ming, and deprive the Qing of the court bureaucracy that they basically got handed on a silver platter (and eagerly co-opted) in OTL.
Since the Chongzhen Emperor himself would be seen as losing most of the empire, it's probably best if he evacuates most of the court to the South, to be under the leadership of Crown Prince Zhu Cilang, while he personally remains in the North. There, he still commits suicide, and thereby pays for his failures. In OTL, the Qing (with the Crown Prince also dead) claimed to actually be "avenging the Emperor" against various upstarts and pretenders. This allowed them to sway many erstwhile Ming loyalists to their side.
In this ATL scenario, Zhu Cilang will have the not-seriously-contested claim of avenging his father, painting the Qing as the ultimate foe. The fact that Zhu Cilang survives and prsides over the Ming court not only gives the Ming that advantage (and deprives the Qing of it), but also gives a legitimacy to this ATL Southern Ming that was lacking in OTL. There is no question who the new Emperor will be, and the Ming loyalists will have a clear rallying point. There will also be more of them, in this situation.
All of this may well be enough to prevent a Qing conquest of the South, thus leading to a divided realm. How long that division lasts may be called into question, but it's far from impossible that it becomes a lasting situation.
This option has some interesting implications. The US is more deeply embroiled in colonialism by participating in a partition of China and is less able to push anticolonialism. With China already partitioned Japan has clear lines it can't cross and is unlikely to give an excuse for embargo. A Japan that doesn't have to take Singapore and the Dutch East Indies for rubber and oil is a Japan at peace with England and the Netherlands. A post-Qing partition could be as early as 1912 or 1913. This may mean that Tsarist Russia is busy in the East and either lets Serbia sleep in the bed it made or sends clear enough signals that someone sits on the Black Hand and there is no Sarajevo assassination plot. A delayed Great War gives time for Anglo-Russian relations to sour and Anglo-German relations to recover. It's also time for Russia to less violent revolution in which something like a general strike leads to a move to constitutionalism or a single revolution after which a more moderate socialist government remains in power because Kerensky or someone like him can't set things up for a second Red revolution by insisting on staying in an unpopular war. Delaying the War also delays the interwar economic issues which may impact FDR's campaign and may prevent Wilson from running for reelection on an anti-war platform which provides another chance to keep that particular anti-Japanese bigot out of the White House further reducing the likelihood of an embargo that drives Japan to war with the non-Russian colonial powers.
If WWI does happen on schedule from a pre-war partition of China Japan probably gets most of Germany's slice because they're there while the others just have colonial forces to grab German colonies with. Mao is probably dead in a gulag in this scenario. I don't know where in China he's from or where the partition lines would be, but when Russia goes Red it'll take it's Chinese territory with it and Communists from other parts of China will make their way there. And if they're charismatic enough to be threatening get purged by Stalin. The nail that sticks up gets brutally murdered. Having colonial borders that are more hospitable than the Himalayas or northern Afghanistan will make it both easier and more urgent for the non-Russian Entente powers to intervene in the Russian Civil War. If they can't prop up a White in the East they can annex parts to their own holdings. This give the IJA a purpose that will help it secure funding against the IJN, further promoting peace between Japan, Britain, and the Netherlands.
An interwar partition means the USSR exists, which means only that Japanese adventurism in China is within bounds that everyone has agreed upon and this is just a "no Pacific War" WWII timeline. Except that the USA is culpable for colonialism and can't as easily stab the British and French Empires in the back the way it could when it only had the Philippines which could be blamed on Spain in internal propaganda.
Have Chiang Kai-shek win the Chinese Civil War while Stalin props up Mao Zedong in Manchuria. Would that count for this?
This makes European interaction come a lot earlier and more interestingly. Spain will certainly come for God and Gold, as will the Dutch (well more on the Gold) and eventually the Brits and French. I’d imagine it be like India (everyone plays them off against eachother…until there the ones being played off).