Alternate History Ideas and Discussion

[stevep]

Why was Bavaria eager to join the German Empire in 1870-1871 in real life as opposed to remaining independent? It could have played off Prussia and Austria against each other while competing for favor with both of them, no?

I think that by 1870 Austria was pretty much looking irrelevant as a balancing factor to Prussian N Germany, although the latter was yet to go through its massive industrial expansions in the last three decades of the century. As I understood it Bismarck was concerned that the S German states, especially Bavaria would stay outside the North German Confederation without his maneuvering Nappy III into his declaration of war. Hence it might have happened without the Franco-Prussian war and possibly Bavaria - perhaps being followed by other S German states - might have formed an economic bloc with Austria, which would have given some economic and political security to them and given Austria a stronger economy and Germanic proportion of their total population.

By this time the Hapsburg empire was caught on the horns of the dilemma - was it a multinational state or a German led one? It never really decided once the rise of nationalism made a choice necessary.

 

[Doomsought]

Gut feeling is that xenophobia would win out. A markedly more liberal Japan today is looking towards automation rather than immigrants to meet their increasing problem of a steeply aging population.

The key to a lasting Japanese empire is that they need to be given a reason to spend significant effort modernizing their colonial holdings. Once they are helping their colonies rather than merely exploiting them, the Benjamin Franklin effect will erode their xenophobia. My go-to for this is altering the geology of the Manchurian oil fields slightly different so the Japanese discover them and have the technology to extract them. This would also remove the Caussus belli for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

 

[WolfBear]

The key to a lasting Japanese empire is that they need to be given a reason to spend significant effort modernizing their colonial holdings. Once they are helping their colonies rather than merely exploiting them, the Benjamin Franklin effect will erode their xenophobia. My go-to for this is altering the geology of the Manchurian oil fields slightly different so the Japanese discover them and have the technology to extract them. This would also remove the Caussus belli for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Where were they located in real life and where do you want them to be located? And how would that make a difference here?

 

[WolfBear]

I love that article so much. The quintessential accuracy of it is, to equal degrees, wonderful and depressing.

Some things obviously don't fit in the scenario, and I actually think that Trump running as a Democrat right after Obama is highly implausible. (Because Trump planned a run for over two decades, and always ensured he was a member of the opposition party -- to optimise his chances of winning after the incumbent left officer after eight years. Those are the best races for a dark horse, when everybody's tired of the establishment.) The idea of Trump being a Democratic "response" to President Santorum would work perfectly.

As I've mentioned from time to time, in OTL, I expect that the future is "populism versus establishment". Trump has turned the Republicans into the proto-Populares. And I believe that various groups which are now still with the Democrats will eventually join the populist movement. This includes, for instance, the actually blue collar subset of Sanders voters. And the black and latino working class.

In this ATL, it would be the other way around. Trump would turn the Democrats into the proto-Populares. I don't think Hillary would be quite as chummy, and that she'd actually be the ATL "Romney" to Democratic Trump (i.e. the pissed-off establishment stooge who does everything to stab him in the back). Meanwhile, Trump would be popular with the exact groups I just mentioned above. Sanders would be his ally. (And are you ready to imagine the notion of AOC as a Trump fangirl?) It would be the "Buchanan Republicans" that would eventually have to be won over to complete the broad populist movement. And this would take time.

But it would happen. Just as the aforementioned groups will not stay with the Democrats forever in OTL. The future is a struggle between the masses and the elite, and it doesn't matter which party ends up representing which group. The labels are irrelevant to the content.

Would any proto-Populares party have to be immigration restrictionist?

'Mitt Romney As A Democrat'.

Have him live to age 100+, remain in the US Senate until then, and switch parties once the Great Replacement is finished in Utah.

 

[Doomsought]

Where were they located in real life and where do you want them to be located? And how would that make a difference here?

My understanding is that the Manchurian oil fields are of an unusual type that were not discovered until 1959 because of it. They would need to be discovered significantly earlier, probably in the 1890s during or immediately after the Sino-Japanse war, to have the policy and cultural impact I am describing.

 

[WolfBear]

My understanding is that the Manchurian oil fields are of an usual type that were not discovered until 1959 because of it. They would need to be discovered significantly earlier, probably in the 1890s during or immediately after the Sino-Japanse war, to have the policy and cultural impact I am describing.

Do you mean "unusual type"?

 

[Bassoe]

'AHC: Make Russian a global lingua franca comparable to English'

May eight, 1945, the Yellowstone Caldera erupts and essentially removes America from the geopolitical game leaving the Soviet Union as the sole post-WW2 superpower, a status which they abuse even harder than the yanks did.

 

[WolfBear]

May eight, 1945, the Yellowstone Caldera erupts and essentially removes America from the geopolitical game leaving the Soviet Union as the sole post-WW2 superpower, a status which they abuse even harder than the yanks did.

lololololololol

 

[WolfBear]

I think that by 1870 Austria was pretty much looking irrelevant as a balancing factor to Prussian N Germany, although the latter was yet to go through its massive industrial expansions in the last three decades of the century. As I understood it Bismarck was concerned that the S German states, especially Bavaria would stay outside the North German Confederation without his maneuvering Nappy III into his declaration of war. Hence it might have happened without the Franco-Prussian war and possibly Bavaria - perhaps being followed by other S German states - might have formed an economic bloc with Austria, which would have given some economic and political security to them and given Austria a stronger economy and Germanic proportion of their total population.

By this time the Hapsburg empire was caught on the horns of the dilemma - was it a multinational state or a German led one? It never really decided once the rise of nationalism made a choice necessary.

Excellent analysis, Steve! Also, what are your thoughts on having Prussia strip the northern and western Sudetenland from Austria in 1866? Those Germans were separated from the remaining Austrian Germans by the Czechs:

 

[Atarlost]

Would any proto-Populares party have to be immigration restrictionist?

Yes. Populists want things to be arranged for the benefit of the people. Increasing the labor supply drives down wages, which is bad for the people. Additionally, there's some disagreement on whether or how much social safety net the government can fund, but no working or middle class taxpayer wants their tax dollars going to immigrants who show up looking for a government handout and no wellfare recipient wants their benefits reduced or cut off because immigrants are taking the money.

 

[Zyobot]

‘George H.W. Bush Makes A Comeback In 1996’.

 

[stevep]

Excellent analysis, Steve! Also, what are your thoughts on having Prussia strip the northern and western Sudetenland from Austria in 1866? Those Germans were separated from the remaining Austrian Germans by the Czechs:

Its a possibility if Bismarck isn't able to control Wilhelm I. Bismarck wanted a moderate peace, keeping Austria out of the core territories of Germany but not alienated and was able to do that. He also wanted one after the defeat of France and IIRC opposed the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine but this time didn't get his way. - We know how that ended up in 1914.

While the period was one of growing nationalism taking those regions from Austria would also boost Czech nationalism in a way as it reduces the number of Germans in Bohemia so that might have been a factor as well. He didn't want lasting instability in neighbouring areas that could cause problems. - Again we know how that ended up in 1914.

 

[WolfBear]

‘George H.W. Bush Makes A Comeback In 1996’.

You'd probably have to avoid having him break his "No new taxes" pledge as President.

 

[Zyobot]

You'd probably have to avoid having him break his "No new taxes" pledge as President.

Potentially, though I suppose I had the “screw Bill Clinton’s 1996 campaign” scenario proposed by @raharris1973 in mind here.

For one, Dole was an aged milquetoast candidate, and Buchanan was probably too extreme for most Americans, so it only seemed fair that Bush I receive another shot at the White House. (Although, having him win would also require Clinton to screw up big-time, just as the aforementioned scenario calls for.)

 

[WolfBear]

Potentially, though I suppose I had the “screw Bill Clinton’s 1996 campaign” scenario proposed by @raharris1973 in mind here.

For one, Dole was an aged milquetoast candidate, and Buchanan was probably too extreme for most Americans, so it only seemed fair that Bush I receive another shot at the White House. (Although, having him win would also require Clinton to screw up big-time, just as the aforementioned scenario calls for.)

Have Clinton come out for legalizing same-sex marriage through a SCOTUS fiat right before the 1996 election. Though conservatives will still be upset at Bush Sr. for breaking his taxes pledge, thus reducing their turnout.

 

[WolfBear]

Its a possibility if Bismarck isn't able to control Wilhelm I. Bismarck wanted a moderate peace, keeping Austria out of the core territories of Germany but not alienated and was able to do that. He also wanted one after the defeat of France and IIRC opposed the annexation of Alsace-Lorraine but this time didn't get his way. - We know how that ended up in 1914.

While the period was one of growing nationalism taking those regions from Austria would also boost Czech nationalism in a way as it reduces the number of Germans in Bohemia so that might have been a factor as well. He didn't want lasting instability in neighbouring areas that could cause problems. - Again we know how that ended up in 1914.

FWIW, David T's post here states that Bismarck supported the annexation of Alsace, just not that of Metz:

France Keeps Alsace-Lorraine but Loses its Colonies in 1871

There was never any real possibility that a victorious Prussia/Germany would not take *some* of Alsace-Lorraine. The question was how much. "The annexation of Strasbourg and of Alsace appeared to him [Bismarck] necessary in order to enhance the security of southern Germany and make any French...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[Zyobot]

Have Clinton come out for legalizing same-sex marriage through a SCOTUS fiat right before the 1996 election. Though conservatives will still be upset at Bush Sr. for breaking his taxes pledge, thus reducing their turnout.

So, basically a way less “exciting” version of what a Carter-versus-Ford rematch would’ve looked like?

Because, while it’s hard to do worse than Dole IOTL, the lack of enthusiasm among Bush supporters would make his victory narrower. In which case, I’m curious as to what the 1996 map will look like, with a much more “even” distribution of both the electoral and popular vote between Bush and Clinton?

 

[Atarlost]

Have Clinton come out for legalizing same-sex marriage through a SCOTUS fiat right before the 1996 election. Though conservatives will still be upset at Bush Sr. for breaking his taxes pledge, thus reducing their turnout.

If the Whitewater investigation had panned out that would have torpedoed Clinton as well. The trick is anyone thinking that Bush should be nominated unless he avoids breaking his promise on taxation.

 

[WolfBear]

So, basically a way less “exciting” version of what a Carter-versus-Ford rematch would’ve looked like?

Because, while it’s hard to do worse than Dole IOTL, the lack of enthusiasm among Bush supporters would make his victory narrower. In which case, I’m curious as to what the 1996 map will look like, with a much more “even” distribution of both the electoral and popular vote between Bush and Clinton?

Identical to the 2000 electoral map but give Wisconsin and/or Pennsylvania to Bush Sr. and New Mexico to Clinton.

 

[WolfBear]

'AHC: An independent Wallachia with a PoD of January 1, 1914 or later. All of Moldavia should go to Russia in this TL while all of Transylvania should go to Hungary in this TL.'